2024 Quarterback Prospect Tier Rankings
Added 2024-03-31 16:21:15 +0000 UTCThe day has finally come! Attached in this post is a PDF with my final QB rankings for this year's draft class, including full write ups on the "big six" that we can expect to go in the top two rounds.
TIER 1 - Caleb Williams
TIER 2 - Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels
TIER 3 - JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix
TIER 4 - Michael Penix
TIER 5 - Jordan Travis, Michael Pratt
TIER 6 - Devin Leary, Spencer Rattler, Austin Reed
TIER 7 - Sam Hartman, Joe Milton
I am more than willing to answer questions you may have about the potential late day two/day three QBs as well, so fire away with those below if you have any!
As far as film breakdowns go on the main channel, there is a bit of an issue I'm still working through on getting white listed to post that All-22...which has been quite frustrating. But the good news is that by May or early June, I should be cleared to post long form breakdowns on - at the very least - Caleb, McCarthy, Penix, and Nix...and hopefully someday Maye and Daniels as well. We'll see what happens when the lawyers fight that one out (it's been a whole thing...I'll tell the story one day).
Comments
What would you say was your biggest reason for putting Penix outside of the tier with Nix and McCarthy?
Mastergamer416
2024-05-01 12:56:35 +0000 UTCI mean if we're talking about a mid round guy that might be a starter eventually, perhaps Jordan Travis or Pratt are my picks. But if you want a sixth or even seventh rounder who might REALLY beat the odds and somehow start for a bit, I would go with Devin Leary. Smart dude with a great arm. He's got a shot.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-09 05:00:53 +0000 UTCObviously an extremely rare scenario, but who in your opinion has the best shot to be a late round Gardner Minshew or Purdy hidden gem in this years class? If the answer is "absolutely nobody" that is acceptable as well lol
Cade Rathbone
2024-04-07 00:29:46 +0000 UTCPersonally, I do not think they are comparable prospects. Jayden is good. Caleb is SPECIAL.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-06 04:46:52 +0000 UTCA con for Bo that I didn't write is that the ball came out of his hand really, really weird when I was standing behind him at the combine. His throwing session was very shaky...but I just couldn't tell exactly why. Might have been unfamiliarity with receivers, or a different ball than he's used to, or a bunch of other factors, so I just didn't list it. But yeah that throwing session wasn't really impressive to me and it did kind of stick with me.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-06 04:46:30 +0000 UTCIt kind of depends on the system, more than the guy to be honest. Trevor Lawrence did the same thing at Clemson but it didn't necessarily mean that he couldn't read it out himself. That's just how the offense operated.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-06 04:44:57 +0000 UTCHoping to make some of those types of videos specifically for the Patreon this summer (mostly for fantasy purposes), don't you worry. They just take A LOT of resources to edit, and draft season is a tough time of year and I didn't want to put my editors into an unhealthy (and likely impossible) grind. June or July, we'll get some fun fantasy stuff up for you guys, just for Patrons :)
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-06 04:44:09 +0000 UTCTravis and Pratt are most likely, but if there was any guy in this class who I think could be a Brock Purdy kind of guy and come out of absolutely nowhere...probably Devin Leary.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-06 04:42:00 +0000 UTCI think he will be a QB3 that is on a developmental path for a few years, and ideally his future team will see what he's got in some spot starts and go from there. He's a lotto pick, to me.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-06 04:41:08 +0000 UTCIt's kind of a combo of both to be honest, but I do acknowledge that some guys might be more "ready" than others. Like for instance, Nix is probably more ready than McCarthy to play in week one, even though in a vacuum I would take JJ over Nix just on long term upside.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-06 04:40:30 +0000 UTCHow much better is Caleb Williams compared to Jayden Daniels
Michael Ferguson
2024-04-05 17:27:49 +0000 UTCThought it was interesting that you didn't actually list any true "cons" for Nix outside of the fear of the unknown and the way Oregon's offenses operated. Not to say fear of the unknown isnt a problem, but McCarthy also had true "issues" listed whereas Nix did not. Does that mean anything, or was that just you not feeling like any was needed to list?
Daniel Tovatt
2024-04-04 23:25:39 +0000 UTCI respect your rankings, my problem with Nix is his habit of looking at the sideline for pre snap reads. If your that seasoned needing gets your reads from the sideline is problematic, donβt you think?
Cisco Haizlip
2024-04-04 17:45:26 +0000 UTCOh I Thought It would come in video format, just like previous tier videos in YouTube... Oh I miss those type of contents. Used to make a Madden Draft Class solely based in Brett Videos
RΓ΄mulo Lacerda
2024-04-02 20:18:12 +0000 UTCWhich of those late round guys (if any) do you think has the best potential to turn some heads during camp and become an early starter? Also, thanks for the great content, your rankings help me massively in dynasty
Travis Wagner
2024-04-01 21:11:20 +0000 UTCwhatβs the ideal path for milton? he gets a lot of buzz bc of his arm, so do you foresee any way he ends up being a starter or a backup that sticks around a long time?
gvn
2024-04-01 21:01:15 +0000 UTCcan these tiers be used as tellers for who has the greatest potential to you? or more nfl ready? not sure how to word that but hopefully you get what i mean lol
gvn
2024-04-01 21:00:28 +0000 UTCThanks brett! A lot of people are saying that this is the best qb draft in a while. What most people aren't saying is that this is one of the most complicated ones π
Salvador Estrada
2024-04-01 15:57:51 +0000 UTCThe war against XOS rages on, my friend.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:52:07 +0000 UTCReed is going to be great in any QB room. He and Caleb have become fast friends while training together. And he's increased his velocity by 10mph just over the last two months alone while retooling his mechanics down in Florida. He's definitely going on day three, and I think he's got a shot to be a long term backup that plays for quite a while. As for Hartman, he's also going to be good in the room as well. I think Reed might have more tools than him, so he probably goes earlier, but Hartman I could see as like a sixth or seventh rounder that can be your QB3/Scout team quarterback that gives your starting defense quality looks every week in practice.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:51:35 +0000 UTCIf I had to find fits for the top 6, at least: Caleb - Bears Maye - Vikings Daniels - Commanders McCarthy - Broncos Nix - Maybe the Raiders, if they are trying to actually get one this year Penix - New England in round 2, if they took Marvin at third overall
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:47:27 +0000 UTCI would say Tua has absolutely been a success. As for the adjustment...honestly it can be more of an adjustment for the opposing defense than anything else because they might be used to boots going one direction for their entire lives and then all the sudden they have to play against a lefty that boots the other way and they don't know what to do with themselves lol
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:46:07 +0000 UTCI would say either Travis or Pratt, personally, if the goal is to maybe luck into a future starter. I could also maybe see Leary there as well, just because he's got a ton of tools and is familiar with the verbiage in the offense.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:44:57 +0000 UTCThatβs good to know! Thank you! In my outside perspective I thought of him as being very arm talented but it being iffy coming out is quite concerning tbh.
Hunter Reynolds
2024-04-01 15:43:32 +0000 UTCHonestly a lot of that trepidation on my end is coming from just watching him live. Seeing all these guys back to back to back and standing 10 feet behind their throwing sessions at the combine, I really did not think the ball came out of Rattler's hands that well at all. It reminded me of when I watched Trey Lance live at Niners camp. On paper yes they both have big arms, but it's just not a tight ball at all, and not very catchable. Catchability is key to me, over pure arm strength. Tough to reel in a wonky ball that looks like it hit a bird on its way over to you. Throw in the not so great athletic profile and film that was very up and down in my opinion, and I just didn't feel confident enough in him to put him in that same tier. I would love to be wrong, but I just don't really see him like others do.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:41:58 +0000 UTCJT would be awesome for them. I could also see Pratt being a target for them, as well as Reed later on day 3. Reed is probably gonna be a longterm backup in the league that sticks around for a lot more years than people expect. He's great in the room.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:38:35 +0000 UTCI think with Nix, for me, it's just about trying to really look at his traits in a vacuum outside of the system he played in. He's got size, he's a great athlete, he has a big arm, and he's very experienced. He also has showed creativity under pressure and is very good at protecting the ball. In a vacuum...all of that stuff is awesome. I'm just trying to remind myself of those traits over and over while looking at the abysmally low ADoT within the weird structure of that offense.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:37:32 +0000 UTCI would say Jordan Travis for starters. I really like what he brings to the table as a passer. Good feet, very coachable, great leader, all that stuff. Smells like a long term backup that will get his shot early on to show if he's even more than that. Devin Leary also intrigues me. Big arm, great in the room, and already has familiarity with the verbiage he'll see on like half of the NFL teams because he played in a Sean McVay-ish system.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:36:06 +0000 UTCI feel like the Tier 3 QBs are much better under pressure than Penix, while Penix is a much better pure thrower than the Tier 5 QBs, so he's just kind of in the middle there as a solid second round value who could probably start (but it has to be in the right situation)
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:34:35 +0000 UTCI have definitive first round grades on Caleb, Maye, and Jayden, a late first grade on JJ, and a late first/early second on Nix. As for translatable traits, I think you really have to be good under pressure. Gotta have the spacial awareness to manipulate the pocket and/or know when to escape, and you have to have the field vision and spacial awareness when out of the pocket and on the move to make throws that aren't directly into hang corners that are waiting for a free gift. Arm strength is obviously also a must. You gotta be able to threaten the whole field to make it as a starter. Experience also does tend to help too. Hard to find a guy who played two years or less who can immediately come in and know what he's looking at in the NFL. It can happen, of course, but it's rare.
Brett Kollmann
2024-04-01 15:33:49 +0000 UTCI think a lot of plays just need to get mirrored, and I guess you could say RT becomes the more important position on the line
Justin Linder
2024-04-01 11:55:59 +0000 UTCI'm also curious which QB would be the best fit given where we are currently.
Kalvin Filarski
2024-04-01 05:17:22 +0000 UTCCollege film issues, yeah? Thanks for the episode with JT!
Rick Craig
2024-03-31 20:17:28 +0000 UTCThoughts on Austin Reed and Sam Hartman?
cjeastt
2024-03-31 18:32:27 +0000 UTCahhhh, thank you
Bryant Williams
2024-03-31 18:31:10 +0000 UTCI mean, Tua
Val Dewar
2024-03-31 18:01:13 +0000 UTCDo you have ideal team ideas for these QBs? I think my Raiders are going to get Penix (Iβm not the biggest fan of his) and I wanna know it it could work with him on the raiders?
Alan
2024-03-31 17:17:49 +0000 UTCWho was the last successful left handed QB? How big of an adjustment is it to make for the offense? Scale from 1-10.
Bryant Williams
2024-03-31 16:38:44 +0000 UTCIf you were the Jets, in a spot where ideally, (if healthy) you have Aaron Rodgers for 2 years. Which guy would you take a flier on late and hope that sitting behind Rodgers for 2 years makes him into a competent starter?
Patrick Kennedy
2024-03-31 16:35:26 +0000 UTCWhat puts Spencer Rattler below Travis and Pratt?
Hunter Reynolds
2024-03-31 16:35:06 +0000 UTCWhich developmental qb do you think would be best behind rogers and where will they get drafted I'm personally hoping the jets snag jordan travis with the 4th round pick
Steven Bonsignore
2024-03-31 16:34:30 +0000 UTCIs Bo Nix making up for the justin herbert rankings? Do you feel like this time around you believe enough in his talents to translate in the league despite the offense he ran at Oregon?
Salvador Estrada
2024-03-31 16:33:49 +0000 UTCIf you were to take a swing on one of the QBs in Tier 5 and below in the hope they turn into a plus starter - which do you think has the best chance?
Conor
2024-03-31 16:33:14 +0000 UTCwhat about QBs in tiers 3, 4, and 5 that puts Penix alone in the middle?
Jared
2024-03-31 16:32:12 +0000 UTCIs tier one the only ones you have a 1st round grade on? What are typically the most NFL translatable traits you look for in a college QB?
Alan
2024-03-31 16:25:56 +0000 UTC
