Week 4 NFL Game Picks!

What's this? A picks article that's actually on time?! And with analysis for every game? Since when does Brett ever do ANYTHING on time? 

I know, I know. This is a weird experience for all of us, myself included. I hope you all have a wonderful week four. I pulled my odds this week from Bovada, just so that you can reference them for yourselves. I had a strong week last week to help me make up for some of my biggest stumbles in the first couple of Sundays. If I can maintain this 55% win rate for the rest of the season, then I should end up with a pretty good payout by the time January rolls around. 

Happy betting, everyone!

GAME PICK RECORD: 31-16-1

SPREAD PICK RECORD: 26-19-3 (54.2% win rate vs the spread)

BRONCOS @ JETS (TNF)

GAME PICK: BRONCOS

SPREAD PICK (from Thursday): BRONCOS (-1.5)

SAINTS @ LIONS

GAME PICK: LIONS

SPREAD PICK: LIONS (+3)

ANALYSIS: The Saints could be down as many as SIX starters on Sunday, including Michael Thomas, Andrus Peat, Jared Cook, Marcus Davenport, Marshon Lattimore, and Janoris Jenkins. That’s a ton of key contributors for a roster that already struggles to put up points without their best receiver on the field. Detroit likes to play man coverage the majority of the time, or at minimum just match zone principles when faced with stacks and bunches, so it is really unfortunate that the Saints will be without two of their best “man beaters” in Thomas and Cook. Alvin Kamara can still carry a huge portion of the load, but he can’t do *everything*. If the Saints offense is going to put up enough points to keep this game competitive, Emmanuel Sanders is going to have to have a dominant performance out on the boundary…and at this point I’m just not sure he can be that guy anymore.

CARDINALS @ PANTHERS

GAME PICK: CARDINALS

SPREAD PICK: CARDINALS (-3.5)

ANALYSIS: When I watched the Panthers defense live last week against the Chargers, I saw the exact same thing over and over again – soft zone, soft zone, and more soft zone. There was almost no pattern matching, very little man coverage, and a heavy over reliance on their front four to just spook young Justin Herbert into checking it down for five yard gains at the first sign of trouble (which he did, repeatedly). That kind of game plan is NOT going to fly against Arizona, as Kyler Murray is well-equipped to shred basic zone coverages all day long if that is the only thing presented to him. 

Whether DeAndre Hopkins plays or not, I fully anticipate that the Cardinals offense will put up a ton of points on this very, very young Panthers D, and at the moment I’m not sure if I believe in Teddy Bridgewater to win a straight up shootout if he doesn’t have Christian McCaffrey on the field. Maybe I’m wrong and Carolina will come out with a more complex defense in this game, but I can only go off of what I’ve seen so far from them this season, ya know?

RAVENS @ FOOTBALL TEAM

GAME PICK: RAVENS

SPREAD PICK: RAVENS (-14)

ANALYSIS: Chase Young has been ruled out with a groin injury, which is a massive blow to the Washington defense. They desperately needed him to be on the field to help contain Lamar Jackson and set a good edge in the run game, especially since Ronnie Stanley is not at 100% (shoulder) and would be a bit easier of a matchup than his usual dominant self. I still expect Baltimore to put up plenty of points because Washington’s linebackers aren’t very instinctive (to say the least), and their secondary is very hot and cold, but at least if Young was playing the Football Team had a remote chance of slowing them down. Overall, I expect a comfortable bounce back win for the Ravens this week and at least 100 yards rushing for Lamar all by himself.

BROWNS @ COWBOYS

GAME PICK: BROWNS

SPREAD PICK: BROWNS (+4.5)

ANALYSIS: The Browns are running the ball at will right now, despite the fact that both Nick Chubb AND Kareem Hunt are among the top 10 running backs in percentage of carries into boxes with 8+ defenders (Hunt is 8th at 25.6%, Chubb is 10th at 25.5%). Both Browns running backs are #1 and #2 respectively in RYOE (rushing yards over expected) per NextGen Stats, which is absolutely insane, and Chubb specifically is averaging almost 100 yards a game on the ground alone. Throw in the fact that the Cowboys defensive line has been abused on the ground so far this season, ranking 19th in opposing rushing DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and I think there is a clear formula here for the Browns to steal a win on the road – run the ball, run it some more, and then keep running it again and again until the Cowboys defense finally breaks. 

Dallas’ best chance to win this game is to try to jump out in front early on the arm of Dak Prescott to force Cleveland into a more pass-heavy offense (which they are not comfortable with at all), but that’s a lot easier said than done when you have the prospect of an injured Tyron Smith trying to hold back Myles Garrett. Overall, I expect a relatively close game until the fourth quarter, where the cumulative body blows from Chubb and Hunt will pay off, and the Browns open up a touchdown lead in the final minutes. From there it will be all on Prescott to bring them back (again), and I think Dallas falls short on that last drive. 

JAGUARS @ BENGALS

GAME PICK: BENGALS

SPREAD PICK: BENGALS (-2.5)

ANALYSIS: I really like the Bengals this week. Joe Burrow has already shown himself to be as advertised, in my opinion, and Cincy’s pass defense hasn’t been half bad either. If Burrow can get a few quick strikes to start this game, which I think he can against a fairly vulnerable Jags defense, it could put enough pressure on Jacksonville to lean more on Minshew than James Robinson. I have no doubts that if Cincy falls behind they will lose this game handily because their run defense is incredibly soft and the Jags bruising run game is a horrible matchup for them, but IF they can get an early lead, this is a wrap. I’ll go with the Bengals winning by four points.

CHARGERS @ BUCCANEERS

GAME PICK: BUCCANEERS

SPREAD PICK:  BUCCANEERS (-7)

ANALYSIS:  I am still massively skeptical of Justin Herbert. As I mentioned before, the Chargers offense was checkdown city last week against the Panthers, and Herbert still damn near threw three interceptions (two of them were dropped), one of which was a sure pick six that bounced off Tre Boston’s hands. Herbert has plenty of WOW throws because his natural talent is insane, but the consistency just isn’t there yet…and now he has to go up against a really good Bucs defense on the road, against the greatest quarterback to ever put on a pair of cleats. I think this could be a slaughter. 

VIKINGS @ TEXANS

GAME PICK: TEXANS

SPREAD PICK:  TEXANS (-3.5)

ANALYSIS: The Vikings had a tough week as they were forced to try to prepare for this game while not even being allowed in the facility for their first four days of “practice”. That is a huge disadvantage for any team, let alone one that then has to go on the road to face an elite quarterback like Deshaun Watson. When you throw in the fact that the already porous Vikings defense is still dealing with injuries and a young secondary that can’t seem to get on the same page (ever), I just don’t see how Minnesota can win this one. They are certainly NOT a bad enough team on paper to start their season 0-4, but then again…neither is Houston. I’ll go with the Texans winning this by five or six points.

SEAHAWKS @ DOLPHINS

GAME PICK: SEAHAWKS

SPREAD PICK:  SEAHAWKS (-6)

ANALYSIS: If you want a sure recipe for defeat, try playing man coverage against Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett for 80% of the game and see what happens. The Dolphins already tried that plan against Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs earlier in the year and got absolutely ripped to shreds because rookie corner Noah Igbinoghene was starting his second ever game and couldn’t handle Diggs one on one (shocker, I know). 

Will the Dolphins try to stick to that plan once again this weekend and let Noah attempt to run with D.K. in man coverage with no safety help?....yeah, honestly…they probably will. And guess what, it won’t work this time either. Call some zone coverages every now and then, guys. It won’t hurt, I promise.

GIANTS @ RAMS

GAME PICK: RAMS

SPREAD PICK: RAMS (-13.5)

ANALYSIS: The Giants are just…they’re just *so bad*. The offensive line can’t protect or open up holes in the run game. Daniel Jones STILL can’t feel pressure to save his life. The front seven can’t stay gap sound and the secondary has constant communication problems. Every single aspect of this team is grossly under water right now, and yet they still have to try to take on the offensive juggernaut that is the Los Angeles Rams this weekend. If the Giants can somehow keep this game within two scores, I’ll be surprised. If they actually WIN…I’ll be flat out stunned. 

BILLS @ RAIDERS

GAME PICK: BILLS

SPREAD PICK: BILLS (-3.5)

ANALYSIS: The Bills may be banged up, but the Raiders are REALLY, REALLY banged up. The Silver and Black will be without Bryan Edwards and likely Henry Ruggs, as well as Damon Arnette, Trent Brown, and possibly even Johnathan Abram depending on what happens with his AC joint/collarbone injury. Buffalo is a tough team to beat as is, but when you are down your top two receivers, your starting right tackle, and your promising young starting corner at a minimum…man…this one is a tough hill to climb for Gruden and company. 

If Vegas is going to have a shot here, they need to be able to establish the run and chew clock to keep Josh Allen off the field for as long as possible, but even that might not be enough. This Bills offense can score in the blink of an eye, and once they jump out front and grab a lead, I just don’t think the Raiders have enough firepower to stay in it. And that’s a shame, too, because if Vegas was fully healthy, I probably would have picked them to win. 

COLTS @ BEARS

GAME PICK: BEARS

SPREAD PICK: BEARS (+3)

ANALYSIS: Nick Foles might not be a great quarterback, but he’s certainly an upgrade from Mitchell Trubisky. And in my opinion, just *average* quarterback play was all this team needed in order to be a legitimate threat in the NFC. Chicago’s defense is still very, very good when they are not constantly on the field all the time due to a poor offense, and their offensive line has really turned a corner this year as well to become the unit that we all thought they would have been on paper last season. The run game is actually working for once, and if you package that consistency on the ground with *just enough* big play ability from Foles, I think Chicago can win this game comfortably. 

Keep in mind that despite playing for less than one half of one game this season, Foles already has more “explosive” pass plays of 20+ yards for the Bears this year than Trubisky. Those explosive plays matter A LOT when it comes to keeping field position in the Bears’ favor and having as many drives end in points as possible. Truth be told, Chicago’s biggest problem in this matchup will probably just be keeping DeForest Buckner from wrecking the game. If they can just slow him down enough for Foles to do his thing and connect on a few deep balls, the Bears should win this game comfortably.

EAGLES @ 49ERS

GAME PICK: 49ERS

SPREAD PICK: 49ERS (-7.5)

ANALYSIS: Carson Wentz doesn’t look like Carson Wentz anymore. He’s erratic in the pocket, his accuracy has fallen off a cliff, and even as a runner he just doesn’t look quite like that young Wentz we all remember that was so dangerous out in space. I’m still not entirely sure what the root cause of his regression is, but I suspect that his back injury from a couple of years ago may have finally caught up to him. He can’t navigate muddy pockets. He can’t rotate during his release. He can’t make people miss. He’s just…not the same. 

Meanwhile, the 49ers are a dominant team in every fashion, even with backups on the field, and are operating a truly well-oiled machine in all phases of the game. Unless Wentz somehow becomes his old self again out of nowhere, I just do not see any scenario where Philly scores enough points to keep up with Kyle Shanahan’s offense. They will be suffocated very slowly, and very painfully by that running game over the course of four quarters, and I expect that by the time the clock his zeroes, San Francisco will have a three possession lead. 

FALCONS @ PACKERS

GAME PICK: PACKERS

SPREAD PICK: FALCONS (+7)

ANALYSIS: This line seems kind of weird to me considering the Falcons *technically* should be 2-1 right now, and not talked about as a bottom of the barrel 0-3 team. Fun fact, the odds of Atlanta blowing two games with a 99% win probability in back to back weeks were only 1 in 990,000! I know a loss is a loss, but there’s no way you can say the Falcons are a bad team just because of two the flukiest/unluckiest losses in NFL history. 

In reality, Atlanta’s passing attack is still as deadly as ever, and even if the Packers put up 30+ points on them (which is likely), I have full confidence in Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley to put on a show themselves and keep this game close.

Again, I don’t expect the Falcons to win, but I certainly don’t expect them to lose by more than six points, either. I would bet on Atlanta to cover here.