Wildcard Round Game Picks (Sunday)

We went one for two yesterday when we picked the Bills and Titans to move on to the divisional round. Let's see how we do today:

 

VIKINGS @ SAINTS (-7.5)

Spread pick: VIKINGS

Straight pick: SAINTS

This is going to be an excellent game - in my opinion maybe the best one all weekend. The Vikings are as healthy as they are going to get after essentially taking week 17 as a bye week, which means Dalvin Cook should be good to go. He's really the key factor in this game for both teams.

If the Vikings are able to get him rolling on those outside zone runs they love so much, it sets up everything else for the entire offense - bootlegs to hit deep crossing routes, little slip routes to the flats by tight ends, throwback screens to Cook - all of it. The Saints linebacking corps is going to have to play their best game all season and maintain impeccable gap discipline if they expect to stop this train once it gets going.

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have two main threats to deal with - Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Xavier Rhodes has not played well this year at all, and Minnesota will be down two other starting corners in this game as well due to injury. If there was ever a game for Thomas to put up a monstrous stat line, this is it. Kamara, on the other hand, might have a bit more difficulty. Between Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith, Minnesota has a lot of tools to help match up with Kamara as a receiver both in man and zone coverage looks. I think he has a modest day and acts as mostly a checkdown, rather than a primary target.

Overall, this game really comes down to Dalvin Cook vs Michael Thomas. Whichever one of these studs keeps the chains moving more for their team to generate more scoring opportunities wins the day. I'll lean more towards Thomas in that matchup.

SAINTS 20 - VIKINGS 14

 

SEAHAWKS @ EAGLES (PICKEM)

Straight pick: SEAHAWKS

Has there ever been a playoff matchup with two teams that were this banged up before? I feel like this game is just Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, and 100+ other random dudes on the field at this point. I almost feel bad for both of these quarterbacks, to be honest.

However, that being said...*because* of the fact that both of these teams are so banged up, each of their respective quarterbacks matters that much more. Both the Seahawks and Eagles will have to rely on Wilson and Wentz to elevate their injury-riddled rosters if they expect to win, so really what this game comes down to is which QB you think can elevate their team the most? To me, that choice is easy - Russell Wilson.

If I'm the Seahawks coaching staff, this is the kind of game where I just go into lots of empty sets or spread formations and let Wilson do his thing at the line of scrimmage to adjust routes and change plays at will. I don't hamstring him with narrow play calls or a run-centric game plan from under center. I put the ball in Russ' hands and I let him go win me the game with his arm, and of course with his brain. That's the key here.

The Seahawks did just that two seasons ago when they beat a dominant Eagles squad up in Seattle despite being vastly outgunned in terms of roster talent, and if they were smart they would just do the exact same thing again. It worked once, so you might as well try it twice, right?

Here is a Film Room episode that I did on that previous Seahawks - Eagles matchup, just so you can see how well that game plan worked:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G4ZgPY1MdI

SEAHAWKS 24 - EAGLES 17