Wildcard Round Game Picks (Saturday)

The playoffs are finally here! We've got two straight days of excellent games coming our way, starting with a pair of extremely physical matchups among the AFC field. With a few hours still to go until kickoff, let's breakdown how I think they'll shake out in the end.

BILLS @ TEXANS (-2.5)

Spread pick: BILLS

Straight pick: BILLS

While this might be a tough matchup on paper for Buffalo, I think schematically they can give Houston even more problems than Houston gives them. Deshaun Watson has taken 34 sacks this season against zone coverages because he tends to hold the ball way too long while reading safety rotations or zone pressures (both of those things have historically given him trouble), and the Bills defense just so happens to be the best zone/pressure defense in the entire NFL.

Throw in the fact that the Texans will likely be without Will Fuller, one of their biggest X-factors on the entire team, and I just don't see Houston's passing game getting much done in this one. If the Texans want to sustain drives, they will have to heavily lean on RPOs and their inside zone run schemes with Carlos Hyde, because that's probably the only favorable matchup they've got.

As for the Bills offense vs the Texans defense, I think we are going to see a heavy dose of Devin Singletary out in space (tons of screens, toss, counters, etc) to take advantage of his talent advantage over Houston's linebackers, and I'm sure there will be a few big shots down the field to John Brown as well. If Josh Allen - as inconsistent as he may be - can connect on at least three explosive plays to catapult the Bills into red zone opportunities, they will win this game.

That right there is the formula - confuse Deshaun with trap zone coverages and pressures, take shots down the field, and let Singletary do the rest.

Bills 21 - Texans 17.

TITANS @ PATRIOTS (-5)

Spread pick: TITANS

Straight pick: TITANS

Someone is going to have to explain to me why the Patriots are favored in this game, because I just don't get it. We've always seen Gillette as an impenetrable fortress in the winter months, but these aren't the same Pats that MADE that stadium a fortress in the first place. Their run defense is suspect, especially out on the edges (good luck stopping Derrick Henry on outside zone I guess), their man coverage schemes are highly predictable and easier than ever to game plan for, and their offense has been underwhelming for basically the entire season.

Even the damn Dolphins went up to Foxborough and out-coached and out-played them just last week, and now we expect a much better Titans team to fall flat? I just don't get it. The last time these two ball clubs met last season, when the Titans were a worse team and the Pats were still their old dominant selves, Tennessee crushed them 34-10...and the Titans haven't really changed *that much* since that game other than a few key additions on offense. This is in no way a good personnel OR schematic matchup for New England, and honestly to me this is my easiest pick of the week.


If the Patriots somehow win this game, it will be Bill Belichick's finest coaching job in years. You can hold me to that.

Titans 24 - Patriots 17