NFL Picks Against The Spread: Week 4

Season record: 24-25 (still closing in on that magic 55% win rate for beating spreads)

PANTHERS @ TEXANS (-4.5)

I am choosing Houston to cover at only a four and a half point spread at home, but I don’t necessarily feel great about it. Kyle Allen played extremely well last week in Arizona, and not even in just a “beat up a bad defense” kind of way. He was nailing tight throws with perfect placement, showed some great arm strength, mobility, and decision making, and in general had that Panthers offense humming along better than it has since before Cam Newton got injured last season. 

I would not be shocked to see this game end up as a true shootout, and more than likely it will come down to one key drive late in the fourth quarter (for either team). In that scenario, I’ll bet on Deshaun Watson clutching out a win every single time. I highly doubt that this will be a “clean” victory for Houston, and if anything it will just reinforce the notion that the Texans secondary needs a lot of work, but I’m just not ready to bet on Kyle Allen out-clutching Deshaun Freakin’ Watson, ya know?

BROWNS @ RAVENS (-7)

I believe in Lamar Jackson - I believe in his development, his work ethic, and his fit within this Ravens system. Baltimore’s offense is SO CLOSE to being elite, and I think if they can just get more consistent deep ball production out of Jackson, they will be able to basically score at will on any defense they face. The Browns are as good an opportunity as Lamar is ever going to get to test out that deep ball, because Cleveland’s ENTIRE starting secondary is still battling through various injuries, and all of them are questionable to play. 

Throw in the fact that the Browns offensive line and Baker Mayfield are both equally responsible for the amount of pressure Mayfield has been under, and that they are now going up against a fast, aggressive, and disciplined Ravens front seven that can punish all of their mistakes, and I just don’t see Cleveland having an advantage on either side of the ball here. Honestly, their only hope is for Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Nick Chubb to generate some huge plays for them to spark the offense, but that’s easier said than done against guys like Marlon Humphrey and Earl Thomas. I think Baltimore wins by at least a touchdown, especially at home.

REDSKINS @ GIANTS (-3)

Daniel Jones was very impressive last week, while almost the entire Redskins roster was…well…in need of improvement. I don’t think there are any corners in the Washington secondary that can cover Sterling Shepard, and there DEFINITELY are not any linebackers or safeties that can cover Evan Engram. Other than Daron Payne, Jon Allen, and Ryan Kerrigan, I have very little trust in anyone else on that entire defense to make a play. 

On the opposite side of the ball, it’s even more dire. Right now the Skins offense is basically just Terry McLaurin and 10 other dudes, and I have zero faith in Case Keenum to make enough throws to keep up with Daniel Jones, even with a terrible Giants defense in front of him. It was smart of Giants management to wait until week three to start Jones, by the way – they got two meatgrinder defenses out of the way early and let them munch on Eli Manning, and now Jones gets to build timing and confidence with his receivers against two really subpar defenses in a row. Brilliant!

CHARGERS (-14.5) @ DOLPHINS

I’m just going to copy and paste this same writeup every week from now on until it stops being true. The Dolphins are the worst professional football team I have ever seen in my life, and every young star that they have traded away should be thankful that they got off of that sinking ship. It’s not worth risking serious injury for a franchise that isn’t even trying to win games this season.

RAIDERS (+6.5) @ COLTS

The Colts defense was already struggling quite a bit, and now they have to get themselves out of this skid without two of their most talented players – Malik Hooker and Darius Leonard. Jacoby Brissett has been playing extremely well so I’m not ruling out the Colts winning this game anyway, even without T.Y. Hilton, but I don’t think the Raiders will have much trouble at least keeping it close against such an undermanned defense.

Hooker being out means more deep shots to Tyrell Williams down the boundary when they have one on ones and more seam balls to Darren Waller that go uncontested, while Leonard being out instantly makes Josh Jacobs’ day that much easier. Honestly, every single injury that the Colts are dealing with right now can be heavily exploited by Oakland’s strengths, and that is going to be VERY tough for them to overcome.

CHIEFS (-7.5) @ LIONS

The Lions have a very underrated defense, and at least theoretically there is an avenue for victory here where that defense plays out of its mind while Kerryon Johnson chews clock and keeps Patrick Mahomes off the field…but am I really willing to bet that it’s going to happen? Not really. 

Detroit doesn’t have a single DB that can keep up with Mecole Hardman’s speed out of the slot, they don’t have any edge rushers that I think can beat either Mitchell Schwartz one on one or Cam Erving when he’s got chip help from a tight end, and I don’t have a lot of confidence in their linebackers covering Travis Kelce, LeSean McCoy, or Darwin Thompson in space either. 

Really their only shot here is to scheme themselves into a ton of pressure through blitzes and stunts to force the ball out early, and hope that Mahomes doesn’t escape to punish them out of the pocket…but that’s a lot easier said than done. I think this game stays neck and neck until the third quarter, where Mahomes finally connects on a couple of deep bombs to pull ahead, and they stay ahead for the rest of the game to win by 10.

PATRIOTS @ BILLS (+7.5)

This Bills defense is nasty as hell, and when they are at home they get even nastier. I do think that the Patriots ultimately win this game…but by a hell of lot closer score than eight points. This screams “two point win in a dog fight to the very end” kind of game, and I think both teams struggle to break 20 points. 

New England’s got the best secondary in the league, so Buffalo’s offense is going to have to rely on their ground game and Josh Allen out-athleting everyone else on the field, while New England’s bread and butter – their own ground game – will probably struggle quite a bit against this Bills front seven as well. If Devin Singletary were healthy and active for this game, honestly…I might bet on the Bills to win…but he’s not. That means I have to place my faith in an old-as-dirt Frank Gore or T.J. Yeldon to put this team over the top against the best defense in the league, and I’m just not willing to do that yet.

Let’s go 19-17 Patriots as the score in a highly entertaining defensive smackdown for both sides.

TITANS @ FALCONS (-3.5)

Yes, the Falcons are banged up. Yes, they are one of the most annoyingly inconsistent teams in the NFL. And yes, if Dan Quinn cannot capitalize on a severely depleted NFC South this season he will probably be fired. 

But you know who else are banged up, annoyingly inconsistent, and being heavily scrutinized for not being able to capitalize on a weakened division? The Tennessee Titans. And believe me, you don’t even know the true meaning of inconsistent until you watch three Titans games in a row on a Tuesday afternoon (which I did). Marcus Mariota cannot get out of his own way, the offensive line is a severe weakness with Taylor Lewan still out of the lineup (suspension), and Derrick Henry fluctuates being either the greatest running back of all time, or being not even start-worthy from week to week. I simply CANNOT figure out this team, and I’m tired of betting on them to play up to their talent level only to be severely disappointed. 

At least I know what the Falcons are. I KNOW that their offense is just Matt Ryan and his three receivers taking on the world together. I KNOW that their pass rush is just Grady Jarrett making magic happen while three other dudes flail around aimlessly. I can at least *predict* those shortcomings and account for them…but Tennessee? I literally never know what I’m going to get from them on either side of the ball, and it’s infuriating. 

I’m going with Atlanta to cover here, primarily because when the Titans have a bad day, it’s REALLY BAD, and I can’t trust them to not have a really bad day on the road against a team that has enough offensive firepower to put them into a deep hole very early. 

BUCCANEERS @ RAMS (-9)

I’m actually going to be at this game today, so I’ll get to see this pick playout live. I think the Rams win this game by two scores. They match up very well with the Bucs offense, featuring two bigger corners that can go toe to toe with Mike Evans’ size and physicality, and they have multiple safeties and linebackers (Johnson, Littleton) that I think can at least semi-contain O.J. Howard as well. Bruce Arians is a brilliant play caller, so it wouldn’t shock me to see Tampa still generate some explosive plays in this game anyway, but I don’t think there will be enough of them to keep pace with as many explosive plays as I expect the Rams to generate themselves. 

When it comes to the Bucs defense, Todd Bowles loves scheming up pressure. Whether it’s stunts, blitzes, or creepers, he’s always on the hunt for angles that he can exploit to disrupt the quarterback, even if he doesn’t have the best talent to work with. Those schematic pressures can do wonders against coaching staffs or quarterbacks that don’t prepare enough, but when it comes to preparation and film study, trust me…Sean McVay does enough. I think McVay will turn the tables on Bowles today and catch him off guard on a lot of those pressures for huge plays. I’m talking screens perfectly timed into stunts, toss plays getting free edges against A-gap blitzes, pin and pull runs catching the defensive line in a slant, all of it. McVay is the kind of coach that I think can spot a tendency a mile away, and if Bowles comes into this game with even a little bit of predictability in his third down calls, he will be punished for it.

You live by the artificial pressure, and you die by the artificial pressure. Today, I think the Bucs die by it. 

SEAHAWKS @ CARDINALS (+5.5)

Kyler Murray has been playing extremely well, even if most of the team around him has not. Ultimately I think the Cardinals lose this game because the overall talent gap between them is very tough to overcome, but I’ll be damned if Murray doesn’t have a unique ability to keep games close. Even the Panthers, who won by 15 last week, didn’t even pull away until the second half. Murray is going to be a nightmare to handle in this league once he gets better pass protection and a better defense, and I think today’s game will serve as a shot across the bow to his division rivals up North. They might get him *this time*, but sooner or later Kyler will get his revenge. He’s way too talented not to.

As for Seattle, they are being severely underrated themselves this week following that embarrassing loss to the Saints. When you go back and watch that game, there were really very few reasons why Seattle should have lost, but everything that *could* have went wrong, went wrong. They immediately fell into a 14-point hole on a return touchdown and a defensive touchdown back-to-back. They committed a penalty on a missed field goal opportunity for New Orleans, which gave them a fresh set of downs inside the 30 yard line, which the Saints paid off with a touchdown to Michael Thomas on a shield screen. And then their final touchdown came when they started their drive on the Seattle 28-yard line, after the Hawks got stopped on fourth down AGAIN to turn it over on downs. 

Were it not for the Saints defense and special teams playing out of their damn minds, there’s no way Seattle loses that game – and I think the Hawks take out all of their frustrations on the Cardinals this week. Kyler is good enough to keep it close and cover the spread, but the guy is going to get hit, and hit A LOT today by a pissed off Seattle defense. Hopefully he is able to get the ball out quick, because if not…oof, it could get ugly. 

VIKINGS (+1) @ BEARS

This is a much tougher matchup for the Bears than it was last year. The Vikings ground game is absolutely humming right now with a resurgent Dalvin Cook and a fantastic rookie center in Garret Bradbury paving the way, and the Bears are going to have to stop that endless stream of outside zone runs without their best interior defensive lineman, Akiem Hicks. I don’t like that…I don’t like it one bit. 

If Kirk Cousins has a running game to lean on, then the chances that he “Kirks it” in the fourth quarter to lose the game severely diminished, and honestly I think between Cousins and Mitch Trubisky, it’s really Trubisky that Bears fans should be worried about. We’re in year three now, and Mitch is still as inconsistent as ever. You never, ever know what you’re going to get with him, and against a really talented, and really salty Vikings defense that wants payback for last season, I just don’t know if I can trust him to put the team on his back and win a big game. 

I’m going with the Vikings to win this game, albeit narrowly, with clutch performances by Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota defense carrying the day. 

JAGUARS @ BRONCOS (-2.5)

Mile High in September is an almost impenetrable fortress – so much so that even an elite team like the Bears had to get extremely lucky just to pull out a walk off win by the narrowest of margins. I think the Broncos run roughshod all over this Jaguars team to finally get their first (and definitely well-deserved) win of the season. 

Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, and Shelby Harris combine for four sacks. Lindsay and Freeman put up 150 yards on the ground. And Gardner Minshew turns the ball over twice in a very sloppy, forgettable affair that the Broncos desperately need to win to save their season. It won’t be pretty or sexy, obviously, but if you don’t love hard-nosed, defensive, run-heavy football, then you probably won’t love the Broncos this year. 

COWBOYS (-3) @ SAINTS

See full game prediction here: https://youtu.be/s7x4Vl52oGU

BENGALS @ STEELERS (-3)

Lost in the fact that the Steelers generated five turnovers last week and STILL LOST the game…is the fact that the Steelers defense generated five turnovers to begin with against a very good 49ers offense. Minkah Fitzpatrick is already making his presence felt in Pittsburgh, and I think in a few years we are going to look back on that trade and ask why the hell the Dolphins ever even considered doing it in the first place. 

Overall Pittsburgh has been kind of a mess so far this season – that much is obvious – but the Bengals have been even *worse*, and I think if any of these teams falls to 0-4, it will be Cincy. The Steelers playoff hopes are probably already dead, but this isn’t a team that will go down without a fight. They’ve still got a lot of talent, and they still have a great head coach in Mike Tomlin. If they somehow lose a “get right” game like this one against a very undermanned Bengals squad, then I’ll really hit that panic button. 

It’s put up or shut up time for Mason Rudolph. Let’s see what he’s got.