NFL Picks Against The Spread: Week 3

Season record so far: 15-18 (we're slowly getting to that magic 55% target

BRONCOS (+7.5) @ PACKERS

I think the Broncos keep this game relatively close, even if they ultimately lose. A more-than-touchdown spread in favor of Green Bay seems like a bit much to me; Denver is a much better team than their record indicates. Yes, the offense struggled against Chicago, but EVERY offense struggles against Chicago…including the Packers. The week before that, Denver was hit by a freight train of bad luck on special teams and down in the red zone, and it led to a primetime loss against the Raiders that has honestly been blown out of proportion. 

The Broncos might go 0-3, but this is NOT your typical 0-3 team. I get a lot of 2018 Texans vibes with this squad, where the season starts extremely rough but they get their shit together by the end of September and go on a big midseason tear to get back into the playoff hunt. Don’t panic yet, Denver fans.

LIONS (+6.5) @ EAGLES

The Eagles being beat up is the understatement of the year. They even had to cancel a practice in favor of a walk through this week because the team was THAT hobbled. Even if a few of their stars that are currently banged up play, they definitely will not be playing at 100%, and following up such a physical game against Atlanta with ANOTHER really physical team like the Lions is just asking for trouble.

 

I expect Detroit to execute the same game plan they always do – run the ball, stop the run, and make the quarterback pull off crazy plays to beat you. Kyler Murray was able to do it in week one, but Philip Rivers was not in week two. Can Carson Wentz do it in week three? Under normal circumstances, sure…but with all of these bumps and bruises to his weapons, his line, and himself? I don’t know about that. Give me Detroit to cover.

RAVENS (+6.5) @ CHIEFS

See full game breakdown here: https://youtu.be/eFrGfkEHBsE

BENGALS @ BILLS (-6)

There is no defense in the league that I enjoy watching more than the Buffalo Bills. Chicago may be more statistically dominant, and obviously more talented, but the Bills play with such anger, intensity, and discipline that I just can’t help but sit back and smile. This is such a well-coached team, and in a couple of years, once the overall talent on the roster catches up with the quality of their staff, this team is going to hurt some people. 

I think that effort and intensity pays off in a big way this week and they beat the brakes off of the Bengals at home. Even with Devin Singletary out of the lineup, I think this team will be fine. Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon can grind it out with some unspectacular numbers on the ground, Josh Allen can keep drives alive with his mobility and toughness, and then just when Cincy least expects it…the bomb happens. 

It won’t be a high scoring game, maybe 17-10, but I don’t think the score will accurately reflect just how physically dominant Buffalo will be on defense. I love watching these dudes play.

FALCONS (+1) @ COLTS

The Falcons offensive line injuries will certainly be a problem, but the Colts are dealing with some major injuries themselves in the front seven, particularly Darius Leonard (out with a concussion). I think Matt Ryan rips apart this Indy zone defense that has struggled with communication errors in the first two weeks, which forces Jacoby Brissett to play catch up against a Falcons defense this is playing with their hair on fire after that week one embarrassment at the hands of Dalvin Cook. 

Atlanta isn’t messing around right now. They know they have a window to win the South with both Newton and Brees injured, and I think they capitalize on that window aggressively this week. 

Side note: Grady Jarrett vs Quenton Nelson is worth watching this game for alone. 

RAIDERS (+9) @ VIKINGS 

I’ve changed my pick for this game like three times now, but I think I’ve finally settled on the Raiders covering that 9-point spread. Honestly, their defensive performance against Kansas City was not AS bad as the box score makes it out to be. That game was just Patrick Mahomes being…well…Patrick Mahomes. He had to make a truly ridiculous serious of throws to score all of those second quarter touchdowns, and all of them were NOT throws that I think Kirk Cousins can easily replicate. 

I do think the Vikings win this game, but it’s not going to be a blow out. I think Carr, Josh Jacobs, and Tyrell Williams keep this thing close, even pulling within a field goal in the fourth quarter, only for Dalvin Cook to close it out with a clock-killing drive in the end. A score of 20-14 sounds about right to me, with Minnesota getting a late field goal on that aforementioned Cook-heavy drive, and Carr ultimately falling short on one last desperation drive in the final minute.

JETS (+21.5) @ PATRIOTS

The Jets are bad, but 21.5 point spread bad? That seems a bit much to me. No spread over 20 points has ever been covered IN HISTORY, and now we expect two of them to covered in one week? I don’t think so.
 

If I’m going to bet on a 20+ point cover, it’s only going to be to bet against the Dolphins. Nobody else in the league is bad enough to justify that kind of horrific line. 

DOLPHINS @ COWBOYS (-22) 

Every time I see an outrageous line against Miami, I think “there’s no way they can be that bad”….and then somehow they exceed all expectations and are even WORSE. I’ve been burned two weeks in a row by underestimating just how terrible these Dolphins are, and I’m not going to make that mistake again. This will be the first time in NFL history a point spread over 20 will be covered.

GIANTS (+6.5) @ BUCCANEERS

This is a good matchup for Daniel Jones in his debut. The Bucs defense is susceptible to short, rhythmic passing games that get the ball out quickly and punish blitzes, and that’s exactly what the Giants are…or at least what they PROBABLY will be with Jones under center. I don’t expect spectacular numbers, but I do expect Jones to be efficient, poised, and accurate enough to put points on the board and guide the Giants to a win. A blowout is unlikely for either team, so either way I think New York covers this 6.5 line…unless the defense really IS that bad. I guess we’ll find out.

PANTHERS @ CARDINALS (-2.5)

Kyler Murray quietly lit up a very good Ravens defense last week. The Panthers are on the road, without their quarterback, and reeling after two shaky performances in a row. By my math, that sounds like it adds up to a VERY beneficial matchup for Arizona. The Cardinals are a better team than people think, with a defense that’s much saltier and more physical than people think, and I believe they smell blood in the water here.
 

Kliff Kingsbury is trying to make a statement to the NFL that these aren’t the same old cards, and unfortunately for a wounded Panthers squad, they are going to get the brunt of that statement. If Arizona won by double digits, I would not be surprised.

SAINTS @ SEAHAWKS (-5)

I like Teddy Bridgewater as a person, but last week he looked a couple ticks…how do I say this…slow? It’s almost like he was a beat behind on every play, both in reading coverages and getting the ball out to his receivers as they came out of their breaks. The contrast between Brees processing defenses and Teddy processing defenses was jarring to say the least. 

I know that it was his first meaningful action in years, but I just expected more. Hopefully with a full week of preparation as a starter he can pick it up this week against a much simpler defensive system in Seattle (Wade gets a lot fancier down in LA), but for now I trust Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett a hell of a lot more than I trust Bridgewater and Michael Thomas. Give me the Hawks to cover at home. 

TEXANS (+3) @ CHARGERS

The Texans receiving corps against the Chargers secondary is one of my most highly anticipated matchups all year. There’s so much damn talent on the field for both teams, and I just wish that we could have seen an even BETTER battle had Derwin James not gotten injured.
 

This should be a pretty high scoring game with Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Will Fuller, and Mike Williams all being on the field, and I expect this game to come down to whoever has the ball last (as is tradition for the Texans…we never make it easy). Ultimately I expect the victor to seal their win with a last second field goal to take a one or two point lead, so no matter what I think Houston covers this +3 spread…win or lose. 

STEELERS @ 49ERS (-6.5)

Mason Rudolph had a few impressive throws last week – especially that side arm doozy to Vance McDonald down in the red zone – but I’m still not entirely sold on this Steelers offense as a whole. Other than JuJu, Pittsburgh’s entire receiving corps is relatively unproven, and James Conner is already a bit banged up as well. Who can Rudolph really lean on today against a fast, aggressive 49ers defensive line that is out for blood? 

Throw in Kyle Shanahan maybe being the best offensive mind in football, Jimmy G finding his rhythm, a running back corps that produces huge runs no matter who is on the field, and an all-universe tight end that the Steelers will also have to account for, and we have the makings of a very ugly game. I think the Niners cover this 6.5 and win by 9.

RAMS (-3) @ BROWNS

Aaron Donald…against this Browns offensive line….yikes.
 

I have serious questions about whatever the hell is going on in Cleveland right now. Were it not for Odell Beckham Jr. out-talenting everyone else on the field last Monday night, that would have been one of the most painfully boring offensive performances by a Baker Mayfield-led team in a long time. Communication issues are rampant, they can’t stop committing penalties, and the offensive line can’t block a damn thing coming off the edge. The Browns are in trouble here, and unfortunately for them they are now running into the buzzsaw that is the LA Rams.
 

Sean McVay is going to do Sean McVay things and put up points, but Wade Phillips is really going to be the deciding factor in this game. I think he ruthlessly blitzes Mayfield all day long and forces that offensive line to block five on five…which they haven’t been able to do yet. That means more one on ones for Donald, and the makings of a truly brutal game for Mayfield’s rib cage. 

BEARS (-4) @ REDSKINS 

See full game breakdown here: https://youtu.be/w06ZZWS4lCQ