Chapter 8: jumping to conclusions using iffy numbers

Alright, in keeping with tradition (https://www.patreon.com/posts/83493034), lets jump to conclusions about chapter 8 using iffy numbers.

It's always exciting to do these ones, as I'm never quite sure how the numbers will line up compared to the last time around, and if they're better, the same, or worse.

Let's start out with the last progress infographic.

By my reckoning, we're about 85% done filling in faces. Note it's not a very solid number as the faces don't really scale that well (e.g. a four-face scene usually takes much more than 4x the time of a one-face scene to produce), but this is about iffy numbers, and that's a great iffy number to start with, amirite?

Iffy number 1: we could be 85% done

So, using that, let's compare time spent so far, which is 2390 by the last report (averaging 47.8 hours per week). That's a far cry from chapter 7's 4k3 hours (4.345 according to the last infographic for it).

In fact, if we project a time to completion for chapter 8 based on the assumption we're 85% done, we end up with chapter 8 taking about 65% of the time to produce that it took for chapter 7 to produce. Note, that's not quite fair as I didn't factor in the release tasks there, but we're still dealing with iffy numbers here so: handwave: we're going with 65% of the time it took to produce the previous chapter.

Of course, we could attempt to extrapolate some other iffy numbers, but as you know by now, I don't say anything about potential release dates until I'm fairly certain I can actually make it, as anything else I say will be assumed to be a solid date, 100% confirmed, written in stone no matter how many reservations put in place, and this would be a very, very iffy one indeed.

Iffy number 2: Producing chapter 8 may take 65% of the time it took to produce chapter 7.

Right, now lets look at images in the game at this point. Always a great iffy number, that.

So, right now we have 6.440 images added to the game, and ~300 still in the render/postwork queue, but we'll ignore them for now.

Based on the assumption that we're 85% done, we'll end up with 7k5 images.

So, chapters 1-7 contain 23k2 images, 10k6 of which were added by chapter 7.

On the assumption that chapter 8 adds about 7k5 images, it'll contain 70% percent of the images of chapter 7. And if we take images to correspond to content, that leads to the next iffy number:

Iffy number 3: chapter 8 may end up having about 70% of the amount of content chapter 7 did.

Since we are dealing with iffy numbers, that's just about the same ratio between chapters 7 and 8 as the time projection.

So from these extremely iffy numbers we can haphazardly jump to the following conclusions.

Iffy conclusions:

Chapter 8 is shaping up to be roughly two-thirds of the size of chapter 7 (which was by all accounts, quite monstrous).

Productivity (expressed in images/time worked on the chapter) has stayed about level with chapter 7.

All in all, no record breakers there, the numbers seem to be holding stable.

With that said, it's time to wrap up that last iffy 15 percent. Until next time.