Radio War Nerd EP #383 — Economic/Ukraine War Update, feat. Ben Aris

looooooool either this is a joke or it needs to be said that ritter is a sex criminal and to be clear by that i mean he has literally been to prison for being a pedophile

Karl Childers

I think Carl Zha has become a bit more of a wacky memelord in the last few years. I don't follow him like I did now that he is so gleefully pro-Chinese government. Having said that, I would have no problem hearing him back on again if he has something interesting to say. It is nice to mix in a little pro-Chinese bias after being doused in pro-US bias everywhere one looks.

jack flowers

Have you guys ever tried getting Scott Ritter on RWN?

Yes, I want to hear Carl Zha too. There is an implicit bias against Russian/China aligned sources on RWN as of late.

You’re the one who’s confused William. Why would a company who produces goods in country A sell goods a lower price into country B and they would into country C? Also fyi shipping rates are traded on a global spot market so the same for every country. Of course not everything costs exactly the same but from a global buying power perspective nominal gdp is what matters.

Cole Robillard

I suggested to invite Carl as a guest. He has a broad global perspective. Good for a big picture view. I already suggested a few others. But yes, I'm looking at the list of guests for the last year+, and can't help but wonder about the strange pattern I see.

That’s cool; what exactly is going to change in the world when you hear more accurate and/or more honest reporting? Will they start negotiations again between Russia and Ukraine? Will the US government stop funding right wing extremist groups that sow division and destroy lives in resource rich areas of the world?

William

Funny how that’s your theory yet you keep repeating it over and over as fact, with your only proof being the last appearance date was a few years back. Plenty of people haven’t been back on in a while

William

If you’re doing any sort of meaningful comparison, you DONT use nominal terms. Period. Consumer goods do not have very similar pricing around the world either. Transportation costs alone prove that argument invalid. Now that I think about it, almost nothing you wrote has any sort of logic to it

William

Ya I think you’re right. They are a pretty closed economy and their primary exports are fundamental to the functioning of the broader global economy (wheat and energy) so they can muddle along no matter what.

Cole Robillard

yeah I think russia produces a lot of their own consumer goods domestically. with some exceptions for modern electronics still point taken

JimmyFenian

YES DRAG DAVID REMNICK. A right scoundrel. I wish him ill.

Rohmer Simpson

Also Petr Pavel did not literally suggest Russians be rounded up and put into internment camps, but his interview was a bit creepy.

Jennifer Vaughn

This is purely my speculation based on the fact that Carl last appeared on the show in November 2021. We had the pleasure of hearing Aris 5 (?!) times since then. I'm implying here this might have something to do with Carl's view of this war and the big picture in general. I can be completely wrong of course.

wait why would he be non grata, what did carl do

Karl Childers

'Star of the show' Carl Zha is apparently in Moscow right now? Wouldn't it be great to record an episode with him about Russia, China, Ukraine, Taiwan, and more? Or is he a persona non grata on RWN now?

Got a Certificate from an online university too. Frameable even. It's around here somewhere.

PW

Oh woah! We got us an actual knower of things guy!

Chris

But the thing is that consumer markets are measured in nominal terms because most consumer goods have pretty similar pricing around the world eg consumer electronics, cars, commodity foods etc. Obviously there are exceptions for locally produced goods. Also nominal pricing is definitely what matters when discussing the size of a export market which is what the guest was referring to with the reintegration of Russia into the global economy. Importers are competing for products on a global scale so this pricing is reflected in nominal terms

Cole Robillard

I'm close to Putin, or at least, I'm like 250 miles closer to Putin than War Nerd is. That's a lot of inches. Gotta count for something at any rate, anybody who is happy about this war continuing needs to be drafted into whichever army they're rooting for immediately.

Doug Cartel

Adjusting for purchasing power parity that might not be true. Actually just looked it up Russias gdp ppp is still slightly smaller than germanies 4.771 trillion versus 5.3. both of their economies are about 50% consumer goods. So by that metric Russia's economy is the second largest consumer economy in europe

JimmyFenian

"Con" man...

Magic Mikey

Disagree I thought it was interesting!

dillards dept.

Great episode thanks ! Love Ben and his analysis

dillards dept.

Population is not how you measure the consumer market. It’s the total value of goods consumed and that number is way bigger in Germany than Russia. France and the Uk probably have bigger consumer economy’s too

Cole Robillard

Population dude double Germany's

JimmyFenian

Y'all are assuming that because the invoice says washing machines that's what actually arrives. Oh my dear sweet naive war Nerd Radio Podcast Subscribers!

PW

As Johnnyola said. You pays your ticket and you takes your chances.

PW

I'm a subscriber for the honesty of opinions. Since day 1. And the book references. My bookshelf groans in the background.

PW

lol And he's got his own fashion line now at Target and a new single coming out this fall! H8ters gonna hate!

PW

Who is this guy? In what world does Russia have the biggest consumer economy is Europe? The Russian consumer market isn’t even half that Germany. Seems to just be making some of this up as he goes along

Cole Robillard

what he says re: sending weapons to Ukraine sounds too old. The only thing Ukraine hasn't gotten after extended begging has been the F16s. That and the ATACMs I guess, but they're going to get 50 next month anyways, which will probably be their one shot at wrecking the Kerch bridge. Russia accepted long ago that this was a war against NATO, especially after a few high ranking Euro govt officials bragged that the Minsk agreements were a fake-out. It's not like anything will change if Ukraine gets the F16s, especially since the F16s can't even be used near the front line because they can only launch off an immaculate airstrip. Deutsche Welle has been really obnoxious in pumping up this war, on a side note.

Doug Cartel

I don’t detect “hate” or “yelling” in the comments here. 🙂

Ellen Harold

Most of what he said was an affirmation that Russia is a developed country and not “a gas station with nukes” as some Russiphobe US policymakers have maintained. The remarks about refrigerators went by me, if that’s what he said.

Ellen Harold

@david buckley +1 MoA may be jumping ahead with his conclusions at the moment. But he at least is trying to look at the big picture. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/06/us-admits-defeat-in-war-on-russia-and-china.html

@Ellen Harold Claims that they buy washing machines to get chips for "high precision missiles" is not arguing that Russia is a backward country?

@George P I spent years listening to RWN, almost from it's inception. I learned A LOT from it, discovered whole swaths of history, and got a much better understanding of current events, found several great people to follow. The content in general has been of very high quality. So it's a sunk cost for me in a way. I'm trying to provide a constructive (the best I can) criticism for what was the biggest mistake in assessing a war that John and Mark in my opinion have made. I feel they need an 'off-ramp' from their "Russian military is a joke" boondoggle. In this episode I think I heard signs of Mark's position starting to move in the right (IMO) direction. I'm surprised that John claims a degree of ignorance about what is likely the most consequential war of the last 70 years that is already reshaping the world order of the last 30 years.

George, people are passionate about this topic obviously. Most of us are Russia fans from the eXile days. Are you really that surprised?

xxx

anti-social maybe but nice for me to see what people are mad about. this isn't a society we just write things online. i am not even able to see if you reply to me i don't think.

jack flowers

Closest I can think of is Puck from Alpha Flight if he traded in the giant A on his chest for a green t shirt.

Amit Bhaumik

I've got no problem with fact-checking and will happily read factual corrections. What I have a problem with is the people getting absolutely furious after every single episode that discusses the Russia-Ukraine war. It's literally every episode, the same people getting irate and insulting the hosts and/or the guest. It is bizarre to me to spend time and money listening to a podcast you hate so you can yell about it. Extremely anti-social behavior.

George P

I don't have enough knowledge to fact-check Aris one way or the other but everyone in this comment section saying "it's just a podcast lol who cares if the facts are wrong" is being disingenuous. The main reason most of us turn to Radio War Nerd is because we believe this podcast holds to a higher standard of accuracy or at least honesty than other news sources.

Karl Childers

Black Widow? Who knows, it's an infantile thing to say.

a clash of purple

Do the Ukrainians like him? He's probably a hero to *someone,* I guess. As far as him utilizing Nazis, meh... Are the Ukrainians supposed to refrain from making use of the Azov Battalion et al just for the sake of virtue signaling or something? Nazis can kill and die same as anyone else. It's certainly true that Zelenskyy is a figurehead of larger forces within the Ukrainian ruling class as well as NATO, but that doesn't mean that he isn't contributing to the war effort, or that he can't also be a hero. *I* don't consider him a hero, but I'm not Ukrainian or some rich Western liberal, so I doubt he'd care about my opinion anyway.

a clash of purple

Zelensky just seems like he's in the pilot chair but the whole thing drives itself. If the rumors of him being a drug addict are true, I can't blame him, because I'd be zooted out if I were in his position too.

Doug Cartel

I'm honestly not competent enough to tell when military analysis is bad, that's why I listen to this show. If Aris really was making factual errors, I would REALLY appreciate some pushback or at least some caveats from the War Nerds, cuz my dumb ass is liable to take what I hear on this podcast at face value.

Karl Childers

100%… Ben Aris’ twitter timeline is pure copium, other than the occasional sober analysis of the failures of the western economic war, he largely spews bullshit. Economists Radika Desai & Michael Hudson have a way clearer understanding of the economics of this war, and they won’t butress it with NATO cope.

Tyler Berglund

yet you still spent an hour and a half of your time listening to him so you could fact check him in a comments section. my brother, it's OK to just take an episode off if you don't like the guest.

George P

There’s been an almost total absence of recognition that the tectonic changes in international power economics (basically the accelerating demise of US hegemony) is the background to this war. Maybe they don’t feel qualified to discuss it but all analysis seems very limited and foolish without acknowledging the current historical moment.

Dies Irae63

People here complaining that Aris called Zelensky a hero. For gods sake, he won an Oscar! And got a fashion shoot in Vogue!! What more do you want?!?

Dies Irae63

He argued that Russia *isn’t* backward, if I heard aright.

Ellen Harold

In addition to what others have said here (Jeff Normal's comment was particularly insightful), according to military theory landmines are supposed to act as an "area denial" weapon, i.e the enemy isn't supposed to get killed by the mines, they're supposed to avoid the minefield and thereby take another route. Unfortunately it doesn't always work out like that, and even when it does the area is denied to civilians after the war barring a very expensive removal process.

Gordon Schmidt

I have a lot of sympathy for the Ukrainian separatists (if my democratically elected incumbent was removed from power and the likes of Azov were deployed to silence my dissent I would want another, bigger, power to intervene on my behalf) but at the end of the day the 14k fatalities of the 2014-2022 period is miniscule compared to the fatalities of the war in its current stage. If it had been NATO who had escalated the civil war into a full-scall invasion, I would be shouting against it, but it wasn't NATO, it was Russia. NATO catalyzed the conflict, sure. Minsk I and II were never abided by and were deliberately sabotaged, sure. But it wasn't Ukraine that invaded Russia, it was the other way around

A Guy

I’d argue his mindset is a great view into what a “respectable “ euro lib currently believes. Like, despite all evidence, the higher levels of euro bourgeois buy into The War of Putin Aggression narrative and the supposed backwardness of Russia, despite being shown time and time again and with their own analysis pointing to Russia being a much greater force than they assumed

William

1:00:45 - "Zelensky is a hero, a real life Marvel hero." Which one?

Amit Bhaumik

One has to zoom out to see that this war is less about Ukraine than the changing world makeup for decades to come, China, and all. Jeffrey Sachs is one of the few people that explains it eloquently based on his insider experience of 40 years. It'd be much better to have a conversation with him than with Aris. Carl Zha was a star guest until last year. Max Blumenthal was a 'friend of the show' until he wasn't. Bernhard of Moon of Alabama would be a great guest. Big Serge (https://bigserge.substack.com/) would be very interesting to have a conversation with. And there are many other people that would be better guests than Aris again and again.

@James O'Hagan One doesn't have to be a military analyst to tell obvious nonsense. This is not the first (or second) time Aris spreads it. There's a certain bar after which it becomes an insult to listeners' intelligence.

Yeah you could tell they didn't agree with his speculation or assessment but were politely holding their tongue in regards to military analysis. The financial stuff was interesting though

JimmyFenian

I'd agree with you that the ukranian government is right wing and sucks. And Im also uneasy about a bunch of weirdo ultra nationalist retaking territory in the Russian speaking part of the country. But Russia is the aggressor, is also right wing and revanchist, and invading another country is a war crime. I think it boils down to that.

JimmyFenian

I simply do not understand the underlying “rooting for Ukraine” in this program. I respect all of you guys but what about the “Ukrainian” war on eastern Ukraine and it’s citizens, who they view as non-Ukrainians, and have been shelled and killed as such, since 2014? Do we have no sympathy for the Russian-speaking population? I simply do not understand all the “oh those plucky Ukrainians” comments.

Arielle Curtin

I generally like Aris but it's kind of a lateral move for the show to say that you have to read everything but know the bias of everyone and create your own syncretic view and then just ... have on a guy who gets the tactical details of the combat kinda wrong?

etienne

It is a mystery.

Ellen Harold

Speaking of sanctions, I couldn't help thinking that if there were a just God, it is our own American oligarchs whom we should be sanctioning and seizing the assets of, many of them. So there is a certain projection in what we are doing.

Ellen Harold

It would only make sense if the cost of getting the chip on the black market is so great that buying a finished product (which includes the cost of the FPGA plus the rest of the machine plus the margin) is cheaper. It sounds outlandish but it does happen. During covid times, graphics cards were so expensive that it was cheaper to buy a 3090 through a prebuilt manufacturer than to get one on the “spot market”. The prebuilt mfgs had made big bulk deals months prior in order to secure their supply, and did not pay the exorbitant price. Because i wanted a 3090, i bought a prebuilt as a result. Does this analogy map perfectly onto the FPGA market? I’m not sure. We do know that the cost of all sorts of chips has been rising due to massive demand in the automotive and appliance sectors. Point is, the supply chain is weird. Maybe they got a really good deal on those fridges!

Alec

This comment section is a clusterfuck. You guys need to chill out and touch grass. The dudes an economic analyst. I would probably agree that his military analysis isn't accurate but again it's a podcast (and I am certainly not a military analyst by trade either so Im speculating that he's military analysis is off as well as I'd wager most of you goons are).

JimmyFenian

Yep Mike koffman went over that it might take an experienced pilot a few months to learn how to takeoff and land but yeah that's not all of it. And that's to say nothing about the 15 hours of maintenance for the one hour of flight time

JimmyFenian

I said it before - Aris is a fraud. Why they keep bringing him is a mystery to me. The conversation should have stopped at minute 10 when he talked about Russia importing washing machines for chips. Anybody who’s still claiming that this is how the barbaric Asiatic Ruskies get chips for their “high precision missiles” should be laughed out of a polite society. But alas no shred evidence is required with regards to untermenschen. He spewed a bunch of incoherent nonsense in between some reasonable observation. “Unlike US, Russia has small kilo bombs.” “Everyone is still fighting with their old Soviet era Buks and Kalashnikovs. They’ve lost all their night goggles.” “Five to one, three to one, whatever it is.” “Russians lost over 200K, at least 2:1 to the Ukrainians.” Yet, “250K of veterans of ATO, 80% of them are dead.” Do I heave to point out that 250K * 0.8 = 200K? “F-16s and their incredible fire power that blows Russians into pieces.” Hello, ever heard of Russian air defense and air force? It’s a shame that John and Mark keep talking to such a character. There are many much more credible people out there to talk to. I suggested some in the past. I can suggest more. But I have a feeling they are uninterested to talk with somebody who’d challenge their views of the conflict.

Its not just F16s but the entire systems surrounding it, weapons, c&c, maintenance, logistics. Basically Ukraine needs a air force. These are very sophisticated equipment that takes years to master. Its not like WW2 where can train a pilot in 9 month.

Sam Zeng

It’s possible that the supply chain constraints make it so that all the relevant FPGAs are sold only in sanctioning countries. But idk. I want to believe 😂

Alec

No reason to get too upset about it. It’s just a podcast

William

Most Anti personal mines are designed to PERMANENTLY wound. They actually bleed more resources by not killing the soldier. They remove combatants from the battle field, both the soldier who was hit, and the person carrying them. Medical resources are greatly increased on a amputation vs KIA. Anti personal mines attack the resolve of combatants on the battlefield psychologically, in that they are are afraid to advance (even if not under fire.) They attack the resolve of the civilian population at home when they see veterans coming home without limbs. It is much more vivid reminder of the front lines than an obituary in the newspaper you will only read once. They are low cost, easy to install, and can be used in a variety of traps by retreating or irregular forces as well as by dug-in forces as suggested by others above. Like much military equipment, they are very nasty and they scare the shit out me, and I wish they didn’t exist…but they are useful to the kinds of pricks who start wars

Although I believe they use chips that are also used in washing machines, I still don’t buy that they disassemble washing machines for their chips. FPGA’s are not rare, not only used in washing machines, and available from multiple manufacturers. Although most of those are in sanctioning countries, it’s clear they have trouble enforcing those sanctions.

Why was he calling zelensky a hero? He has no idea what is happening militarily. The Bahkmut meat grinder was not a stalemate. And the Ukrainian offensive is being obliterated. F16’s would all be shot down far from the front by Russian air defense.

They have no hope… lol. F16’s?! With what airfields? With what pilots? With what logistical support. This shit is about to be unsubscribed.

How can Zelensky be called a “hero” when he is absolute puppet and he’s has utilized nazis and elevated Nazism?

I literally fell asleep during this, woke up and they were talking about insurance costs or whatever the fuck, then turned it off. I'm sure this must be interesting to someone out there.

Tyler Pittman

anti personnel mines are useful in that like all forms of fortification they slow the enemy down so you can fire on them more effectively

Fartmaster

I looked into the washing machine chips, turns out the chip in question is an FPGA (field programmable gate array) which can be *reprogrammed* after manufacturing/outside the factory. As an engineer I totally buy the story that these FPGA chips are being repurposed for munitions.

Alec

Do anti-personnel mines have any legitimate military use? Are they even useful for terrorism? I'm sure that they can kill enemy soldiers here and there, but they're not going to stop a sufficiently determined enemy from advancing. It really seems like all anti-personnel mines do in practice is sit around for years after the end of whatever war and then blow up random children for no reason at all.

a clash of purple

He's saying its not the full scale offensive because we haven't seen large concentrations of equipment yet, only roughly company battlegroup sizes (10-20 combat vehicles). But we haven't seen any battalion sized groups or larger making a single attack at any point during this war (except maybe a couple of Russian ones last year where it looked basically like a parking lot). If you try to assemble and concentrate that many forces anywhere at the tactical depth they get spotted by drones and smashed by artillery. So it's not really a good indication of anything.

david fenton

Anti-personnel mines are such a terrible weapon. They're banned for a good reason- unfortunately Russia is not a signatory to the Mine Ban Treaty, and while Ukraine is, Human Rights Watch has accused Ukraine of using them, so we can safely assume that's probably true. Vehicle mines are not banned, probably because there's almost no chance a little kid might get killed because of it (although they do pose an obvious hazard to farm equipment, as was mentioned in the episode)

Gordon Schmidt

so fucking boring plus already rehashed to shit everywhere else

xxx

hes not a military analyst hes a financial journalist I believe dude. The point of the episode was the economics part which was excellent the rest is speculation.

JimmyFenian

hes pretty knowledgeable about a lot of the economic stuff. I have know idea whats going on either. Most people should be imposing very vague priors

JimmyFenian

thats the best part

JimmyFenian

Pretty hard to get through the first solid 30 mins of oil price talk.

xxx

This clown of an analyst initially claims western equipment isn’t at the front then later admits to German tanks being hit by mines. If you take this guy seriously you’re a damn fool.

He’s a pathetic military analyst. No idea what is going on.

Yeah i do wonder given how old a lot of the crap thats getting sent there is. A lot was made out of the 113 bradleys, 80 or so marders, CV90s, and 112 modern MBT but a lot of what is being sent there in terms of APCs and tanks is frankly crap. AMX10s, Leopard 1s, 400 M113s offer very little protection. I think I read somewhere that europe only has around 400 Leopard 2s in storage and those are probably in various states of repair so that could have something to do with the fact that they've only sent 68 so far (think some of the more strident nafo countries are sending another 14). I feel like if they really wanted a decisive outcome they would send more modern equpiment in numbers sufficient to acheive a breakthrough although idk if thats possible given russian fortifications.Kind of glad theyre sending small numbers because I do fear the russians breaking out those tactical nukes if things start to go very badly hopefully there will be a ceasfire soon.

JimmyFenian

I think aris' info on economic sanctions etc is very good and he's one of my favorite guests covering current events; however, the notion that the ukrainian army could rush the shipment of f16s and actually get some utility is absurd. They will be unable to operate over russian lines due to the s400/s500 systems and even so the fact that russians will most likely have 2-6x as many air superiority fighters makes it highly unlikely that they'd have any effect whatsoever. Mike koffman pointed out it takes several years to master the set of missions that that thing can do. They probably would be better served by more air defense batteries given their issues with s300 systems but idk how good the patriot system is.

JimmyFenian

Great episode! Ben's a great guest, would be great to hear from him once a quarter or so!

Matthew Floratos

Gives me hope when hearing informed people having open discussion….. for some reason not the main stream model…

Josh

Ben Aris is always a great guest.

David Andrews

Most of the stuff that Ukraine is getting is probably 15 to 30 years old with upgraded electronics. Still very capable, and well maintained, but it's surplus inventory. HIMARS are short-range version. As has been publicly reported, Ukraine is getting a a few dozen upgraded versions of the Abrams M1A1, not the most recent version of the M1A2. If the U.S. or allies transfer F-16s, F-18s or the Gripen, same story.

J P 3

Aris says Europe is afraid of giving Ukraine too much. Respectfully, this seems like a dated take to me. Many European countries as well as the US are now all in and giving Ukraine some of their best stuff: Leopards, Gripens, F-16s, Abrams, Storm Shadows, ATACMS, Patriots, Excaliburs, HIMARS, depleted uranium munitions. What does Aris think they're holding back on? If anything I think the West is so heavily invested in Ukraine they'll do whatever they can short of nukes and WW3.

Daniel

Great episode. War madness.

Haven’t they already laid down the groundwork to sell off every piece of state property down to the nails once this ends?

12:42 - Truly dismayed that Mark said India had Russia "by the throat"... when "over a barrel" was staring you right in the face! For shame...

SJ

I suspect the IMF will happily swoop down on the remains of Ukraine after the war and really put the screws to them in true Western fashion. And the Zelensky's will happily sell out whomever is left.

PW

Re: the assumption that to be wealthy in Russia means that you must be a criminal - Amazing how that only applies to Russia AND NO OTHER COUNTRY.

When Ben brought up oil technology I wondered about the Brazilian state oil company PBR, industry leader in margins, engineering, and technology, and we all know that BRICS is more important to Lula than sticking it to Russia

A Guy