Radio War Nerd EP #373 — World of Wars: The Insulted & The Humiliated

Even if RWN is completely wrong about the performance of the Russian army, I can't see any reality that it becomes even a blemish on their reputation, let alone a death blow. Even assuming the Russians are in a great spot as you say(dubious assumption), a majority of listeners aren't gonna jump ship over one bad prediction, when they've been spot on about topics like Iraq/Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Not to mention the historical coverage you mentioned.

when you're sad, I'm sad.

Mark Ames

Mark's bitterness over being thrown under the bus is understandable—his career as a journalist was destroyed, while Taibbi has gone on to enjoy immense success. Still, it's pretty sad that his way of dealing with it is to echo bad faith mainstream criticisms of Taibbi that you can get from a million accounts on Twitter.

Boobs123

I even heard Ukraine is running critically low on elan. it isn't good for them

Jimothy Realname

I absolutely agree with Mikey. Slavyangrad is great also. I listen to a lot of the alt-media sources as well, but like you mentioned you really do have to take care in what you take on board from them. Some very iffy things are put out there. Unfortunately I have to say that I can’t stand Gonzalo Lira; he has a faux-intellectualism that I just can’t get over. But that’s just my opinion.

Slavyangrad is also a good Russian source. There is also a whole western alt-media space that a couple of years ago I would have dismissed as dodgy, shallow and/or bordering on conspiracy theories, but have proved to be good on the Ukraine war and the recent geopolitical changes. For example, they correctly called out the Nord Stream pipeline culprits months ago. The best of that space includes Moon of Alabama, The Duran (especially Alexander Mercouris), Gonzalo Liras Roundtable, The New Atlas, Military Summary Channel. This alt media space often displays immaturity, shallowness and occasionally bonkers ideas. They could really do with some good editors and seasoned critical journalists, but most of those seem to have lost their critical faculties entirely and just mindlessly stenograph NATO propaganda. So they’re the only place to go for actual critical analysis of events. Also, have to mention Scott Ritter, a man with huge integrity and a wealth of relevant analytical experience. If he was a pro-NATO hawk he’d be a regular on all the mainstream media.

Magic Mikey

@Jimothy Realname >The Russians will keep wearing them down, and they can't last forever. Certainly not in a trench war against an enemy with 20 times the artillery. I 've tried to make this point several times in the past. This is simple math that doesn't care which team you root for. This is just artillery. Now add air force and missiles, medevac factor, and the picture is even more one-sided. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the current kill ratio is close to 1:20, and the average from the beginning is approaching 1:10. When the dust settles, there'll be a big shock among the people that are capable of facing the reality.

A sad episode. The whole discussion of Taibbi’s performance at the hearing and with Hasan is pointless. Is this a high school debate club to argue who “owned” whom? Doesn’t matter, as doesn’t matter Taibbi’s personality or his ability to prepare for an attack and to hold a verbal punch. Only facts matter. Taibbi and others, whether we like or dislike their personalities, published important facts about how exactly censorship had been done at Twitter. We knew about it, of course. But it’s still important to see the details documented, especially that their internal censors saw through the fraud of organizations like Hamilton68 and others. What does it have to do with RWN. I say nothing, other than Mark’s pathetic attempts to “show” how bad his “ex” is, who happened to be objectively more successful as a journalist and writer. It is sad to hear “Russian army is a joke” in April 2023 when even most of the staunch anti-Russian voices in the MSM started to begrudgingly admit that Ukraine is losing badly and that the whole NATO is pretty much out of stock of equipment. It is sad to hear how John keeps agreeing with Mark who is, sadly, on his jihad against his other “ex”, who “closed” his paper 16 years ago. I understand that it’s John’s personality to avoid disagreement and that he is going through a difficult time. I wish he could get a break, get a home in Italy to settle, take care of his health and a number of other things. It is sad that I see a non-zero chance that “Russian army is a joke” may end up becoming an epitaph for the War Nerd’s reputation. It’s one thing to be wrong in predicting whether a war would start in a particular fashion. It’s a totally different level of blunder to continue to ignore reality a year later. If RWN was only about Taibbi and Ukraine, I would have unsubscribed by now. But I’m addicted after all these years to great stories, such as the Years of Lead, interview with Bob Parry, Crimean War, Ethiopia, Syria, and many others. It is sad that I now have to “ignore” the nonsense while waiting for the good parts, which I didn’t have to do in the past.

Yeah, but they don't have artillery. They can barely shoot back!

Jimothy Realname

I see a bit of push back once again over John’s ‘The Russian army is a joke’ comments. While I agree with most that this is wrong, especially when considering we tend to forget just how much support Ukraine is receiving from basically the entire world, I can see what John is trying to say. From what I can tell John has many things going on at once - health, travel along with visa stuff - and I don’t think he has the time to go trawling through every detail like most RWN listeners. This isn’t to say he doesn’t take it seriously or isn’t doing his job, so to speak. I don’t mean to presume either, but he is probably at an age where any war seems ridiculous, which, of course is entirely correct. On the other hand I see Mark becoming a bit more open to the idea that perhaps Russia, while making plenty of mistakes, is not quite as ‘jokey’ as first thought after Kiev and Kherson etc. This is the first time I have heard him mention Rybar which is for anyone not following the conflict on telegram perhaps the most in-depth, accurate and somewhat objective pro-Russian account you will find. In short, no, the Russian army is not a joke and I’m pretty sure a lot of grieving Ukrainian families would agree. As for the leaks I believe they are, like most leaks, based on half-truths. They will probably serve some purpose in the coming months like ‘Well, we had this big awesome counter-offensive planned, but those damned leaks ruined it all.” In regards to casualties, it doesn’t really matter because Ukraine can’t go on the offensive while they keep feeding reinforcements into Bakhmut - so, to the Russians Bakhmut doesn’t mean much on the map, as John keeps bemoaning but Ukraine is making it something so much more than it needed to be. For Russia it’s a gift that keeps on giving.

Some comments on the Russia - Ukraine leak discussion The Russian casualty number is lower in the leaks because the number referenced is specifically KIA, not total casualties. It's still consistent with other official US estimates on that basis Regarding Bakhmut, the city isn't strategically important in itself, but Russia has used it to bleed Ukrainian forces which blunts the counter-offensive. The understrength manoeuvre brigades are a result of Ukraine committing some of those forces to the Bakhmut defence (eg 92nd Separate Mechanised Brigade) and losses of materiel and vehicles which have been lost in the course of deployment and supply for the city. It has therefore served a strategic purpose for Russia.

Jon

I grew up near the Niagara Falls border and while it got more stringent over the years the only people I know who ever had any issues had prior drug busts in the US system. Then you get pulled over and your car gets taken apart. Other than that they might have you come in to the office if something is expired but you had little kids and no criminal record so they didn't want to waste their time. They're looking for real criminals.

PW

Matt Taibbi is just a strange person. He seems like he wants to be a serious journalist that people take seriously, but also a gonzo Hunter S. Thompson renegade truth-teller, but also make a lot of money and get invited to rich people parties. One person can maybe do one of those things at a time, at most. You can't have a personal friendship with Elon Musk and be his courtier while also trying to have some kind of dignity or journalistic integrity. Rich and powerful people expect more devotion from their retainers than what Taibbi seems willing to give. But Taibbi is also willing to damage his own credibility by having dumb spats with people on Twitter and embarrass himself doing interviews that he's clearly unprepared for. But he also wants to have some kind of independence and be the Substack guy rather than attaching himself to one of the big media companies who will protect him when he does dumb stuff. I just don't understand it. If he wants to sell out, then he should sell out. Be Elon's fawning sycophantic Igor who defends his master no matter what and has no shame. Or if he wants to have some kind of credibility and dignity, then stop doing these stupid media interviews and just do journalism. What does he want out of life?

a clash of purple

As RWN says over and over and over again, not all armies react to taking casualties the same way. I don't know how many men Ukraine has been able to mobilize, but unless their forces are actually attrited out of existence and literally everyone is dead or wounded, I wouldn't say that they're "near collapse" just because of losses. And maybe they are on the verge of having their forces wiped out in detail. Like I said, I don't know. But I think for Ukraine, suffering casualties is only going to harden their resolve right up until the bitter end. I think everyone fighting for Ukraine right now is fully committed and willing to die, though maybe that could change later. So no matter how bad their casualties are, it's not going to make much difference (again, unless their casualties are so horrendous that they just run out of people).

a clash of purple

Taibbi was trying that "beneath me" shtick as far back as 2014 when he was put on the spot by Alyona Minkowski and squirmed in his seat as if he'd shit his big boy bants https://web.archive.org/web/20141113010700/https://www.pando.com/2014/11/08/taibbi-commenting-on-paul-carr-is-completely-beneath-my-dignity-but-that-doesnt-stop-him He's been a joke ever since but apparently not enough people laughed. Dude has the same brain worms for attention that Elmo does.

Benjamin Glover

I would believe 50k Russian casualties, but there's no way in hell Ukraine only has 16k. They've gotta be double russia's at least. According to the leaks, Russia is presently outshooting Ukraine 20:1 in artillery, and Ukraine is running critically low on shells. In a war like this, most of the casualties come from heavy weapons. Most of a platoon's firepower comes from machine guns, most of a company's firepower comes from mortars, most of a battalion's firepower comes from artillery, and so on. Over half of the military casualties in WW2 were from artillery, and 60% in WW1, so I figure a *modern* trench war is probably pretty close. And Russia is shooting 20 shells for their every one. No precision guided wonderweapon can make up for that disparity. The Russians have been pummeling Ukrainian positions for over a year now, and Ukraine's ability to respond has only worsened. But they aren't giving any territory without a fight, so that means they're spending lives to keep territory. Conversely, the Russians are using disposable prisoner mercenaries (along with a lot of artillery) in Bakhmut, so they barely count as casualties! I can't help but think the Ukrainian army could be near collapse. I don't think the west is going to expend all of our stockpiles just to keep them in the fight, so they'll have to subsist on a trickle. The Russians will keep wearing them down, and they can't last forever. Certainly not in a trench war against an enemy with 20 times the artillery.

Jimothy Realname

A reference to The Fall AND J. Richman in the span of, what, 60 seconds? I can only handle so much coolness, John. Great episode—I have been out of the news loop for a spell and hadn’t been following about China-brokered ceasefire. Good news, of course, and it also delivers that small hit of Schadenfreude to imagine the seething in Washington over it.

Kendall Krawchuk

I almost forgot: John, that gun channel you saw on YouTube. Your description seems pretty close to Ian, aka Gun Jesus, from Forgotten Weapons. That's a good channel. He's as nerdy about guns as you are with the wars they're used in

Once I was on a bus from Seattle to Vancouver, which involved us disembarking from the bus, going through customs and then back onto the bus. I got through and decided to take a bathroom break. When I got out the bus was peeling away and I had to run after it with a bunch of mounties chasing after me. The bus finally stopped and I was able to explain things to the mounties who were almost annoyed as me about the bus taking off without making sure everyone was on board.

Christopher Price