Radio War Nerd EP #365 — Economic War Update, feat. Ben Aris

haven't really seen anything as blatantly bad faith as Merkel admitting the whole Minsk process was a ruse done in bad faith. Can't imagine why Putin would use Minsk in bad faith since the terms of Minsk were so advantageous to Moscow. No one is arguing that Ukraine should trust Moscow.

Mark Ames

I agree, there’s a lot of talk about the bad faith from the west and Ukraine, but Russia has been as unreasonable and bad faith, arguably much more (this goes back to the Minsk days). Whether we like it or not, Ukraine is absolutely right not to trust Russia whatsoever

jkjkjkj

The economic discussion is interesting, but aris makes a couple errors firstly, the negotiations in March didn’t end two days after Johnson’s visit, it was closer to two weeks, (and the reporting we have indicates rhat it mostly fell out over Bucha and the sinking of the Moskva). Secondly, the 100,000 dead figure was a genuine misrepresentation of the numbers. The figure provided was 100,000 casualties, not deaths (ie: includes injuries). Obviously neither is good to hear but there is a significant difference there

jkjkjkj

Ben Aris is so obviously an intelligence asset

Professor Jokes

Very interesting listening to this after Hersch interview. I think he puts forward a very reasoned approach to the conflict and at worst takes a bet each way. Wars are financed and are economic as well, Ben's insight is as good as any I have heard on here.

Crosley Querin

But if you don't have the latest chips, how can you build marvels of modern electronics like the F-35?

a clash of purple

Unfortunately when he started talking about chips, it rang immediate alarm bells that he doesn't know what he's talking about. He doesn't know what the state of the art is, and seems confused about what actually would be militarily important and what wouldn't. Militarily important chips are generally using technology that would be obsolete for anything else. There are many technical and economic reasons for this, but a key consequence is that despite how far behind Russia is on domestic chip fabrication (no where close to state of the art) they have no problems at all producing all the chips they need for missiles and missile control systems, and any other military uses.

Any evidence the Ukranians stopped attacking the Russian forces around Kiev because of the negotiations?

Michael Schworetzky

Ben Aris mentioned BJ as a lone wolf. But Bennet's recent interview points to BJ being a hired hitman doing a job on behalf of Germany, France and USA. Bennett: "Every move I made was coordinated with the US and also with Germany and France. It’s true that they backed down from this ... i thought they made a mistake."

I had to laugh with the "negotiated end to war" stuff. Putin was at the table just long enough to get his far flung troops back to a consolidated position and out of danger of being cut off and forced to mass surrender. When that happened, negotiations ceased. It was playing for time, period. As for Boris, he was, is and will be a flake.

I would like to see a source on the washing machine thing. It's not inconceivable but it doesn't seem that likely. All signs point to Russia having huge stockpiles of armaments prior to the sanctions being enacted.

Cory

Why do so many of you seem to think you know exactly what is happening with Ukraine?

Logan Ausherman

I disagree with your guest on the Bucha Massacre. The Ukrainians are responsible for killing those victims. They were seen as Russias "collaborators" for accepting Russian food packages. Note the food aid packages next to the bodies in tths photos in this article: https://www.donbass-insider.com/2022/04/06/bucha-massacre-when-satellite-images-and-videos-are-manipulated-to-tell-a-false-story/

Ben's economic analysis of the on going situation has been pretty spot on. I would say the resilience of the Russian economy has been of note. Also the Western Europeans seems to bear a large part of the sanctions. Still the long term implication still rings true; Russia's economy is towards Germany not India or China.

Sam Zeng

I’m less critical on Ben after finishing the interview. Listening to where his readers are, he has a bit of incentive to not publicly promote narratives that would decrease his readership. Not saying he’s doing it consciously, but his information is conditional on his sources which are mostly Western European. He can talk well on the Econ side of things which is important add but not sure he’s one to really judge the military situation

William