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nathanwinklepleck
nathanwinklepleck

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April 2023 Q&A: 17 Questions... 16 1/2 answers! 🤣

If you have questions for next month, drop them in the comments section below!

April 2023 Q&A: 17 Questions... 16 1/2 answers! 🤣

Comments

You're thinking much broader than I had in mind Glen! My thoughts were much more myopic. Basically thinking in terms of a single stock. I envision a situation with a watchlist of "20ish" potential positions. Let's say one of them is Seaworld. It is discovered that dolphin farts contribute substantially to global warming, the market reacts and the share price is down a noticeable percentage with absolutely no anchor to the mechanics of the business. Is it worth having cash on hand for such a circumstance? If so, what percentage? But honestly, I feel like I'm beating a dead horse with this question. The more I reflect on it, the more I think it comes down to preferring concentration or diversification. My current understanding is that if fully diversified, no need to have a portion in cash. But if concentrated (ie less than ~15 positions) treat cash like oxygen, because when it's needed, nobody will have any left to spare. But, I feel like I'm toeing the line of what can be responsibly discussed in this forum. So I formally withdraw my question :)

The question might be if the real doozy came by, would the whole market be down and the would concern override the decision to move on the opportunity?

May Q&A video question (or separate video idea). Regional bank financial statement deep dive? Like what you did with Disney a while back. Maybe PACW given all the headlines?

I may have answered my own question. If you want to comment on in Nathan, I’d be interested. Buffett said “Munger and I operated with mostly five positions…. I would have 80% in five positions, with 25% for the largest.” - Concentrated Investing page 96 I read that as up to 20% cash. Not trying to beat a dead horse with this question. Lol. Just not a lot of people interested in discussing portfolio allocation where I live. 😅

May Q&A question: I would be interested in seeing you compare some of the major ETF dividend funds based on the historical performance of a few key parameters and what effect they could have on wealth and monthly contributions projected into the next 10 or 20 years, using a free online dividend calculator. I, and many others I presume, would find it immensely powerful to see some of these sorts of projections based on the important parameters you've highlighted both on your channel and in your course. Cue, "The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended to be financial advice. Any investment decisions should be made after conducting independent research and obtaining advice from a qualified financial professional. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that any investment strategy or approach will be successful.

I hear your point. I could’ve emphasized better that it is only of the money that is deemed responsible to invest. I’m not talking about investing more money than could be given up for 10+ years (to use Nathan’s metric). I have a feeling since Nathan really like coffee cans, that he’d invest 100% of the responsible amount and then walk away. I read a book, 100baggers, that emphasized that over the long run: buying at the low of the year or the mid point even, doesn’t make that much of a difference over a long time horizon. I guess I like the idea of 5ish percent in the tank just in case mr. Market freaks out for a day and I can add 1% to a couple positions. But I guess I’m curious if Nathan thinks this is worth doing at all… Thanks for the thoughts j dooz

"...in the tank as dry powder in case a real doozy of an opportunity comes along." - this sentence just makes my smile. I don't want to speak for Nathan, but it seems like he addressed this in the vid. It's hard to know how much of your savings to put into the market. It's just too dependent on personal circumstance. He doesn't have enough information about your situation to make a reasonable suggestion there. I'm struggling with the same choice. I have money on the sidelines that I want to invest, but the news/economic climate has me a little gun shy. Could I get a better price if I wait? Maybe, but that's not really the point when the time horizon is 30+ years. Do I still want to keep some on the sidelines if that deal comes along, sure, but that's a choice you have to make. I don't think he can make it for you. I would be curious as to what a "general rule of thumb" would be. I myself am currently trying to figure out how much to invest. He said invest money you know you won't need in the next 10 years. That's hard to forecast if you ask me, and so we are left to pony up what we think is *reasonable* given our own situations.

I’m going to post this in the next month Q&A but I think I should clarify what I meant by my cash allocation question. First off I appreciate you being clear and encouraging a holistic view of a person’s finances. Integrity is what that sounds like to me :) But what I meant was, of the percentage of a person’s budget that they responsibly choose to allocate toward investing, how do you think about navigating valuations? Should a person fully invest their capital? Or wait until a good deal comes along? I think of early days Buffett where he says he had “more ideas than money” but now he says he has “more money than ideas”. I definitely could use more capital to follow my ideas, but I wonder if it’s a good idea to wait with about 5% or so in the tank as dry powder in case a real doozy of an opportunity comes along. I hope my question is a little more clear, sorry about the lack of clarity. Edit: I’ve been reading “Concentrated Investing” lately, which has me reflecting a bit on portfolio allocation.

Thanks for these!


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