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nathanwinklepleck
nathanwinklepleck

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A Simple, Powerful Technique for Timing the Stock Market

Added 2023-02-18 13:06:24 +0000 UTC

I've long been fascinated by this research; is it too good to be true? Let me know what you think!

Comments

Ooh, I found it. It's in the Edit Graph menu under Units.

2023-02-19 04:19:01 +0000 UTC

Nathan, how'd you get FRED to display that data in "Percent Change from Year Ago" format? Also, are we sure the timing function would currently be on? "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.0 billion, up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 6.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2022."

2023-02-19 04:09:59 +0000 UTC

Can you look at the acquirer's multiple strategy. It's like the Magic Formula except seems to generate even higher returns. Are there any indicators that could further improve upon this strategy for the long run?

2023-02-18 21:41:09 +0000 UTC

I brought up Dobermans because the 2022 letter brought up the. SP 500 the problems with the index. Which led to tracking the 10 Top holdings of the 500 and holding a 50-50 portfolio of Dobermans and top 10 500 stocks. But I found that holding only top 10 stocks of the 500 too volatile. I looked at simply holding The Top 30 holdings to decrease volatility with Dobermans 10 better. Any thoughts of just holding 30 of the SP 500 and walk away from until next year rebalance and reconstitute?

2023-02-18 16:18:41 +0000 UTC

Hi Nathan, Have you heard of Dobermans of the Dow from Michael Cannivet? On the first trading day of the new year he publishes for free the new 10 Dobermans. Most years he beats the Dow 30 and Dogs of the Dow. Rules are simple: 1. Rank the 30 Dow stocks by ROE and keep only the 10. 2. Rank the remaining 20 names by Free Cash Flow Yield. Keep the ten and hold annually. Though in 2021 report you made a little more rebalance quarterly. I started 2021 gain 15% and 2022 lost 8%.

2023-02-18 16:07:27 +0000 UTC

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