Matchup Analysis - Blue Red Murktide

Key Cards: Sigarda’s Aid, Urza’s Saga, Esper Sentinel, Blacksmith’s Skill (Post-board)

Problem Cards: Archmage Charm, Dress Down (usually 0-1 g1, 1-3 post board)

Objectives:

• Game 1, your entire plan is to get a hammer on a creature. Once it’s there, they have ~5 outs to that creature outside of throwing their dudes under the bus. If possible, put it on a 2 mana creature (Paladin, Stoneforge, or Chip). Doing so will keep you from getting demolished by an archmage charm stealing your giant creature. That said, Puresteel Paladin can move the hammer if you have metalcraft.
• Their only reasonable outs game to a fast hammer are:
  • Archmage Charm to steal your creature
  • Multiple Murktides back-to-back
  • A single Otawara
  • Sometimes a Brazen Borrower
• If you ever get a Shadowspear and a Hammer on a creature, it is very unlikely for them to win. The huge life swing and almost unblockability means that they will likely just die.
• Sticking a Sigarda’s Aid is one of the strongest things you can do in the matchup, because it effectively turns off their tempo/countermagic plan, and allows you to pick your spot to “go for it”.
• While it can be difficult to thread the needle, they often are choked on mana between counterspell, archmage charm, expressive iteration, and now Ledger Shredder. As such, Esper Sentinel is also a beating here, as the tax often costs them an entire turn.
• Game 1 they have very little recourse to defeating large constructs, so Urza’s Saga makes for a phenomenal fair plan. Plus, leaning on end-step constructs means that they either waste their mana by passing out of fear from a surprise hammer, OR they tap out, leaving them open to a connection.
• Unless you have them dead on turn 2, you should often aggressively block Ragavan any creature that will trade with it, especially on turn 1-2. While our cards are often meaningless for them, the treasure tokens make it way more challenging to navigate a win through their piles of interaction and card advantage.

SB Strategy and highlights: Blacksmith’s Skill - A+, Needle - B+, Relic - B, Pierce - C+

Removal spells: Path/On Thin Ice/March/Prismatic Ending

• Even though I’m a fan of Game 1, I think the post-board games get even better for the hammer side, at least with my configuration.
• Blacksmith’s Skill does an insane amount of work, countering everything from a removal spell, archmage charm mind control, as well as protecting your 1-drops from an EE unless your OP plays perfectly (and even then, sometimes they simply can’t).
• Pithing Needle is in here almost exclusively to name Engineered Explosives, as that is one of the only ways for them to stop a hammer/aid kill. Having Needle post-board also means that they need to pop their EE’s prior to Saga Chapter 3, as you can shut off the bombs before they can respond. Additionally, Skils can protect your Needle from Otawara and Brazen Borrower, meaning that those pesky EE’s are locked out for the rest of the game.
• Relic of Progenitus/other 1-shot GY hate is fine, but often medium. One of the ways they can steal the game is by playing Dragon’s Rage Channeler (DRC) backed up by quick delirium and a lot of removal/countermagic. As more and more people are cutting the DRCs, the matchup becomes more and more favorable. If you don’t see DRC, I would leave Relic on the bench.
• Spell Pierce is a reasonable card, but with 4 skills, it is largely unnecessary, and it dilutes your gameplan, as a savvy UR player can play around it.
• Removal Spells are something I’ve waffled back and forth on. While Prismatic Ending, Path to Exile, and On Thin Ice (in the mono-white version) are solid options for killing Murktide Regent as well as picking off early threats, March of Otherworldly Light is inefficient at killing 1 drops on the draw. And quite frankly, if you are on the play, you should be pressuring your OP, not holding up removal spells. It is fine to bring them in, but I’m pretty low on them.
• Engineered Explosives, Blood Moon, and Dress Down are additional problems post-board. Here is how you beat them.
  • EE: Both Needle and Skill do a great job at softening/beating an EE. If you have a 0 drop or a 2 drop and an aid in play, your OP has spot to pop the EE when you flash in a hammer. They can do 1 of 2 things:
    • 1. Pop it with the hammer on the stack. You Skill the Aid. EE resolves, your hammer comes in and attaches.
    • 2. Pop it with the aid “attach” trigger on the stack. You Skill the Hammer, it gets equipped, and they die.
  • Blood Moon: Make sure to fetch basics early and often if possible. Keep in mind that Paradise Mantle can generate multiple white mana if you have extra “mountains” and creatures in play. Moon is mostly obnoxious because it kills saga, but it is what it is.
  • Dress Down: The best way to beat dress down is to not run a pile of constructs into it without a backup plan.
    • Note that any +X/+X effects on your constructs in response to the Dress Down will keep the constructs from dying. They will turn into 0/0’s with +X/+X. For example, if you can get a hammer/spear/kaldra on the construct, it will stick around even with the DD in play.
    • My favorite way to beat a dress down though, is by targeting one with a Skill in response to the DD. The construct will become a vanilla 2/2, but it means your robo-friend will stick around long enough for DD to go away.

TL;DR: Put a hammer on a creature, don’t get blown out by archmage charm (g1), or EE (g2). Bonk em dead. Blacksmith’s Skills pay the bills.

And by “pay the bills”, I mean “blow your opponents out at every opportunity.”