BBQ season a bit more charred than normal

So every summer, all the political nerds have nothing to nerd about, so they nudge each other and say that 'BBQ season is in full swing'. This is a suggestion that political parties will be off having their wee cliquey BBQs where leadership spills be plotted.

This is usually a fabrication and wishful thinking than anything else. We need that drama to spice it up during the lazy period from Gallery Party - Rātana. Very few spulls get discussed over this period; however the BBQ season 2024/25 may be a bit different.

First, it's usually the opposition that these BBQs are supposed to be happening at - and a few pundits have been saying that Hipkins needs to be rolled. I'll have some views on that later, but for now, he is safe. I have spoken to several folks in Labour, and nobody has given any inkling that there are coups afoot. Of course, it's helped by the fact that just about the only person who I think could be a good replacement has repeatedly ruled himself out of the running at this point in time and has also been given a role for the campaign that will see him busied.

But over at National, things may be different. There is an increasing view that the PM is not performing as well as he might be. There's a lot of internal angst and concern that polling numbers are heading in the wrong direction, that he's failing to resonate with the public, and that he doesn't listen to advice.

The vibes coming from National MPs are off. Now you might go "how the fuck would you know Dave? You're a lefty, they wouldn't talk to you". And you'd mainly be correct, but I hear stuff. People say the odd word to me.

The noise and vibes are that Waitangi weekend is the first major moment for Luxo and that if he causes "embarrassment" for National, then numbers will be counted. I don't know what that means. He's already said he's not going to Waitangi for Waitangi Day, but I guess if he gets overall negative coverage?

I don't think this is massively likely, however. It's still pretty early in National's term, and they have plenty of time to try and milk the recovery that is being promised (though forecasts are becoming increasingly anaemic, suggesting that the spirit of recovery is more likely to be more of a shart than a full-blown diarrhoea episode.

It also raises who might replace him. There are really only two viable candidates in National: Nicola Willis and Erica Stanford.

Nicola has often been touted as the heir apparent, and in fact prior to the election, many business leaders in Auckland were openly asking her to roll Luxo then. However, since the election, she has had a run of ... not victories. Some were self-administered, some administered by Winston, and some even handed to her by Luxo. I'm not sure if she's done damage to her brand, though I don't really know what her brand is like outside of Wellington. And it ain't flash here.

She, of course, lost her electorate race to Greg O'Connor, in an election that saw National sweep heretofore unwinnable electorates. She is also still not fully trusted in caucus (alongside Bish) for being part of the Muller coup that really didn't go well.

Stanford is an interesting choice. She hasn't gone in search of exposure or runs on the board, which suggests either a lack of ambition, a lack of confidence in ambition, or a cunningness in excess of most of her peers. She's been widely praised for her handling of the education portfolio - typically a poisoned chalice for National - even by educators. She's also Auckland, and seen as liberal which would be helpful if National was to retain the same voter base it grew massively in 2023. That said she's a bit unknown, and a bit inexperienced.

The other big rumour that keeps swirling is we may have a new Minister of Health shortly. The names I keep hearing are Collins and Simeon Brown. But I would be surprised if either of them got it. I say that education has been the historic poison chalice portfolio: health is as bad as it gets. It, for my mind, is where Labour should be going absolutely ham on the government. Whoever gets it will have a hell of a fight on their hands. And it's often one that's unwinnable as you can never spend enough, or pour enough resource, into health. There will always be a sick person who has waited too long to be seen, or someone give birth on a road because there was no room at the inn, or equivalent story.

I think we'll see how worried/cunning Luxo is if there is a new Minister with who gets it. If he is concerned about BBQs, and if Stanford is seen as a threat, then he may biff health at her. After all, Bolger did the same to Shipley in 1993. Didn't go great for him though, did it.

All of this is to say, there has been far more hubbub and excitement this bbq season than any I can remember. And while it may all come to nought, it may also take on a life of its own and become self-fullfilling. I guess we'll find out.

Happy days.