metaculus

A New, Coronavirus-Centric Metaculus Site

Added 2020-03-23 15:25:00 +0000 UTC

Patrons, Metaculus has launched a new forecasting domain that is exclusively dedicated to generating useful aggregated predictions on COVID-19. There, you can weigh in on over 80 questions that have attracted a total of over 16k predictions, with most of these questions drilling down into outstanding and critical issues for which quantified, calibrated estimates are sorely lacking.

If you haven't already, please visit the new site, which features a roundup of especially salient questions, as well as additional subdivisions of categories not found on the main Metaculus site—such as "vaccines and medical countermeasures," and "cancellations, closures, and quarantines."

Note also that as this site develops, there will be especially granular questions that appear on Pandemic.Metaculus but don't appear on Metaculus prime.

(For questions shared between the two sites, your predictions and comments will live on both.)

Thanks for your support, and, as ever, your predictions.

-The Metaculus Team