November 21st, 2025: Imai, Rule 5 Draft Protection, Mailbag

Not for nothing, but given what I’ve seen out there on them internet streets, the reaction to Trent Grisham taking the qualifying offer is absurdly over the top. It’s hysterical, and not in a haha that's hysterical way. (The reaction everywhere else, I mean. Not from you folks. You’re all smart and great.) You’d think the Yankees are putting present day Jacoby Ellsbury in center field and not a guy coming off a 34-homer season. I assure you Hal Steinbrenner was gonna find an excuse to make the second best offer for the free agent we all want with or without Grisham. Tranquilo, people. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Tatsuya Imai. With all due respect to Ryan Yarbrough, the Yankees need to add a starting pitcher this offseason. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón will miss the start of next season following their elbow surgeries. Clarke Schmidt won’t be much of a factor next year, if he’s a factor at all. The young pitchers are all coming off career high workloads. Rotation depth is a must.

"We’ll be exploring how to protect ourselves so we’re not taking on water early because our rotation is compromised out of the gate,” Brian Cashman told Erik Boland at the GM Meetings last week. “It’s an area for us to focus on."

It’s a solid free agent pitching class this offseason. There are veteran workhorses (Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez), upside plays (Zac Gallen, Mike King), depth arms (Zack Littell, Nick Martinez), and a bunch more. The Yankees aren’t short on options. There’s also longtime Seibu Lions righty Tatsuya Imai, who is making the jump to MLB. He’s already been posted and is available to sign right now.

"Every season, I have played with the goal of winning the league championship and the Japan Series, and that ambition will not change with a new team," Imai said in a statement after being posted. "I will continue to compete with a strong desire to win and do my best to contribute to my team’s success."

The Yankees have reportedly shown interest in Imai, 27, and he’s really the only free agent they’ve been connected to other than Cody Bellinger, right? The offseason is very young but there has been a decided lack of rumors league-wide. Has any team been connected to Cease? King? Valdez? It’s been quiet so far. The Yankees have expressed interest in Imai though, reportedly.

It has been a while since the Yankees had a Japanese player. The last was Masahiro Tanaka, whose final season in New York was 2020. The Yankees had at least one Japanese player every year from 2003-20 save for the two-year gap between Hideki Matsui and Hiroki Kuroda (2010-11). It’s about time the Yankees get back into this market. Let’s dig into Imai’s game and see what’s what.

Background

The Lions selected Imai out of high school with their first round pick in 2016. He spent two years in the minors and had mixed (mostly bad) results with the big league team from 2018-20 before breaking out in 2021. Since then, Imai has been one of NPB’s top starters:

Context is important. NPB’s average was a 3.04 ERA and 19.6 K% in 2025. Imai has long been one of the league’s top bat-missers. That 1.92 ERA is excellent, though it is “only” a 137 ERA+ (Cam Schlittler had a 138 ERA+ this year, for reference). That isn’t meant to diminish Imai. He’s obviously very good. It’s just that a 1.92 ERA in NPB is very different from a 1.92 ERA in MLB.

Imai started a combined no-hitter this April and he’s a three-time All-Star. He has never won an Eiji Sawamura Award (NPB’s Cy Young) because Yoshinobu Yamamoto hogged it from 2021-23, it wasn’t given out in 2024*, and Nippon Ham Fighters righty Hiromi Itoh won it in 2025 (he threw 33 more innings than Imai). The All-Star Game selections are Imai’s only hardware.

* NPB has set statistical criteria to qualify for the Sawamura Award (15 wins, sub-2.50 ERA, etc.) and if no one meets it, they don’t give it out. The Sawamura Award became a thing in 1947 and 2024 was only the sixth time it wasn’t given out.

Scouting report

Imai is not Yamamoto, who had all the indicators of a future ace when he came over (performance, pitch data, command, temperament, etc.). The short version is Imai is a short-ish righty (5-foot-11) with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball, a wipeout slider, a splitter, and a curveball. For a longer version, here’s Baseball America (subs. req’d) and here’s video:

Imai is an undersized righthander who’s explosive and mobile on the mound. His low three-quarters slot borders on sidearm and creates a unique approach angle to the plate that creates deception and keeps hitters off balance … His four-seamer sits at 95-97 and touches 98-99 at peak with a flat plane of approach and heavy armside run. The fastball is particularly effective when located in the upper third and has been adept at generating swings and misses. Imai’s slider is his best pitch and his primary swing-and-miss weapon. It has a gyro shape, sits 85-87 and touches 88-89 with late downshift that creates unique armside movement. The combination of Imai’s low arm slot, above-average velocity and late armside break make his slider a unique offering. The splitter is Imai’s third pitch, and it features good vertical separation off his fastball and heavy armside run to work as a swing-and-miss pitch in opposite-handed matchups. Imai threw a curveball around 2% of the time in 2025, and it featured spin rates in the 2500-2600 rpm range along with around 8-9 inches of sweep.

A gyro slider is a fancy name for a slider that breaks hard down rather than sweeping away like, well, a sweeper. Here’s another scouting report via Eric Longenhagen:

Across the 2022-25 seasons, Imai halved his walk rate (from the 14% area to 7%), expanded his repertoire, and improved his fastball velocity even as his innings count grew north of 160 frames … Imai might not be done improving. He has a loose, whippy sort of athleticism that helps him generate big, deceptive arm speed. He may be a tweak away from having better stuff than his already solid five-pitch mix. A nasty mid-80s slider with sharp two-planed movement performed like a plus pitch in 2025 and is the best of those offerings … (Imai) certainly looks like a big league starter from a raw stuff and athleticism standpoint. He’s demonstrated MLB starter-quality stamina and strike-throwing for the last several seasons, and he could conceivably take another step forward if even one aspect of his delivery can be polished in his late 20s.

Eno Sarris (subs. req’d) dug into the pitch data and found “Imai’s fastball is a near match for Joe Ryan’s fastball” based on the velocity, movement, etc. Ryan’s fastball is one of the best in the game. It’s been a top 10 four-seamer by Statcast’s run values every year of his career. It’s a top of the line bat-misser and pop-up pitch. If your fastball gets comped to Ryan’s, you’re living right.

Baseball America says Imai is a four-pitch pitcher and Longenhagen says he’s a five-pitch pitcher, so we might have a Mystery Pitch™ in play. Clearly though, it’s a top shelf fastball/slider combination with a third pitch splitter, plus other stuff. Baseball America calls Imai a “ready-made No. 3 MLB starter who should make an impact immediately.” Longenhagen puts him in the Gallen/King group of free agents.

NPB teams have gotten pretty good at pitch design but they haven’t caught up to MLB teams yet. The Dodgers even tweaked Yamamoto, giving him a sinker and a slider in 2024. The general belief is Imai has the arm slot and feel for spin to add a sweeper, and he could be a candidate for a sinker too. Teams see him as a good pitcher with a chance to be better through adjustments to his pitches and their usage. (Imai threw around 50% fastballs this year. I wouldn’t expect that many in MLB.)

For what it’s worth, Imai is said to be very competitive, even (respectfully) dismissing Yamamoto’s World Series performance because, “This is no time to be impressed. We are both aiming to be the best in the world. I want to do my best too” during a television interview in Japan. Talking the talk is easy. Whichever team agrees to pay Imai handsomely this offseason will be the one that most believes he can walk the walk.

The NPB to MLB adjustment is a big one. It’s a different ball and pitchers typically start once a week in Japan, not once every five days. Then there’s all the cultural stuff. It’s a lot to take in. On the field, the different ball and pitching schedule are the biggest adjustments. Obviously it’s doable. Plenty of NPB starters come to NPB and thrive. It’s something to keep in mind though. These guys make almost wholesale life changes.

Injury history

As best I can tell, Imai has had two notable injuries. He had shoulder inflammation in the minors in 2016 and 2017 (I think it was the same injury spanning both years) and he sprained his ankle early in 2022. That limited him to nine starts. Most importantly, Imai’s arm has been healthy since his shoulder barked in 2016 and 2017.

Contract projections

Imai was officially posted Wednesday and his 45-day signing window runs until 5pm ET on Friday, Jan. 2nd. The entire process must be completed by then. Physical, pen to paper, the whole nine. Imai can sign any time between now and Jan. 2nd, though he may visit teams and cities, plus the holidays could slow things down. Chances are he’ll sign closer to Jan. 2nd than today.

Imai won’t get a Yamamoto contract (12 years, $325M) because he’s two years older now than Yamamoto was when he signed, plus he’s not as good. He’ll likely get more than Shota Imanaga (four years, $53M) and Kodai Senga (five years, $75M) because he’s several years younger than those guys. Here’s what the various contract projections have for Imai:

• The Athletic (subs. req'd): 8 years, $190M ($23.75M per year)

• ESPN: 6 years, $135M ($22.5M per year)

• FanGraphs: 5 years, $100M ($20M per year)

• MLBTR: 6 years, $150M ($25M per year)

Tanaka got seven years and $155M more than 10 years ago now. He was younger and more decorated than Imai when he came over, but I have a hard time believing Imai will get less than Tanaka. Too much time has passed and there’s been too much salary inflation. Case in point: Tanaka’s deal was the fifth largest pitching contract in history when it was signed. Now it’s the 19th largest.

I can definitely buy Imai getting the offseason’s largest pitching contract because he’s at least three years younger than all the top MLB free agent starters. Cease’s performance is so volatile that I could see him getting squeezed into a one-year deal with player options. King has injury concerns. Ranger Suárez throws 92 mph and has never thrown 160 innings in a season. He visits the injured list every year.

The largest pitching contract may come down to Imai or Valdez, and that’s a 27-year-old vs. a 32-year-old. Whatever Imai gets, the contract will almost certainly include an opt out, because those are standard for NPB pitchers now. Yamamoto has one. Senga had one he didn’t use. Imanaga didn’t have a traditional opt out, he instead had a series of club/player options that allowed him to become a free agent this offseason. Imai’s deal will include an opt out though. That allows him to cash in should he really pop in MLB.

There’s also the posting fee, which does not count against the luxury tax but is a real expense. The posting fee is based on the size of the contract. Here’s the fee structure:

• Contract worth less than $25M: 20% of contract value

• Contract worth $25M to $50M: $5M plus 17.5% of amount over $25M

• Contract worth more than $50M: $9.275M plus 15% of amount over $50M

I have Imai mentally earmarked for seven years and $175M (I always bet the over on free agent contract projections for 20-somethings). That would come with a $28.025M posting fee. Over a certain amount, the posting fee is paid in installments, and I’m sure Imai’s will qualify. I have no idea what the installment schedule is (it was 18 months for Tanaka). The posting fee is not one big lump sum payment though.

Figure Imai is in line for $20M+ per year over 5-7 to years, with an opt out and maybe some other bells and whistles. That’s Rodón/Aaron Nola money. More than Eduardo Rodriguez money and south of Corbin Burnes/Max Fried/Blake Snell money. Sound reasonable? Who really knows. All it takes is one motivated team to blow up the market, and hand the guy (much) more than everyone expects.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Imai’s a 27-year-old starting pitcher who just about everyone in the know expects to be a quality Major Leaguer. He makes sense for every team, Yankees included. Whether you value him at what it’ll likely cost to sign him is another matter, especially when there are many MLB proven starters sitting in free agency. Yeah, they’re several years older, but that gets baked into the cake come negotiating time.

There are a few things to consider here. One, Imai has value beyond what he does on the field. You’ll never usurp the Dodgers as the team in Japan, Shohei Ohtani’s gravity is too strong, but Imai can help you cultivate fans in your market. Imai’s an opportunity to make inroads with young Japanese fans in the Tri-State Area, and fandom gets passed down through generations. It matters and teams absolutely factor it into their decision-making. At minimum, Imai will sell a few more tickets early in 2026.

Two, how serious are the Yankees about Tarik Skubal? He’s a year away from free agency and he’s a Scott Boras client, so we can reasonably assume he’ll hit the market and not sign an extension between now and then. The Yankees have done the “pass on a good player now to sign a better player next offseason” thing. Brian Cashman admitted they didn’t trade for Johan Santana in 2008 because they were eyeing CC Sabathia in 2009.

“I (told) my ownership if they could wait six months, we could get a pitcher – Sabathia – in the same category as Santana and still have four (young players) to use for ourselves or to trade,” Cashman told Jay Greenberg at the time. “That’s exactly how I presented it.”

Trading prospects is different from spending money, but there’s still opportunity cost there. Sign Imai now and the Yankees will have four big money long-term pitching contracts on the books. Would they add a fifth to get Skubal next offseason? Maybe they would. Giancarlo Stanton’s contract would be a year away from expiring and Cole’s only two. Live with the financial pain in 2027 and things get better in 2028.

It does seem unlikely the Yankees would add that fifth big pitching contract though. I’m not even sure they’ll add the fourth this offseason. If there’s sincere interest in Skubal, and the Yankees plan to make a real run at him, passing on Imai now and going with stopgap rotation help this year is defensible. It’s risky because you may not get Skubal and have a worse team in 2026, but it’s a thing the Yankees have done in the past. They could do it again.

And three, the Yankees do their homework with Japanese players. As poorly as Kei Igawa worked out, it was a watershed moment. It showed the Yankees they had to get better in Asia. They didn’t have enough information to make the best possible decision. After Igawa, the Yankees ramped up their Asian scouting, both traditionally and analytically. If they miss on a player, it won’t be because they lack information.

Since Igawa, the Yankees have only pursued the best of the best from NPB. They went hard for Tanaka. They pursued Ohtani when he came over, but were told he’s not interested. Same with Roki Sasaki last offseason. The Yankees threw $300M at Yamamoto. It wasn’t enough to get it done, but they did offer him $300M. They obviously thought he was going to be a star and an instant ace.

The Yankees didn’t make much effort to sign Imanaga, Senga, Yusei Kikuchi, Seiya Suzuki, or Masataka Yoshida though. The slightly older (i.e. late-20s) guy who projected to be good but not great. Imai’s in that bucket, no? The scouting reports I included above tab him as a No. 3 starter or a Gallen/King type. Which is really good! But it is a notch below the kinda NPB players the Yankees usually target.

Because of that, it’s easy to think the Yankees will get involved in the Imai bidding, but won’t go all out. I do wonder if a philosophy change is coming though. Limit yourself to the tippy top of the market only, and you’re going to miss out on some really good players. Not everyone needs to be a star. A 27-year-old No. 3 starter is a valuable part of the team. That guy can play an important role for you in October.

All indications are Imai has the goods. High-end fastball and slider, good splitter, good athleticism. The latter bodes well for his delivery and his control, which is continually improving. Imai’s walk rate and swinging strike rate have improved every year since 2020:

I’m scouting the stat line here, but that sure looks like a young pitcher figuring things out. Figuring out that, you know what? I can pitch in the zone and these guys still can’t hit me. The jump from NPB to MLB is a big one. Different ball, different pitching schedule, better hitters, entirely new culture. Ultimately, you have no idea how a player will handle that jump until he makes it. That risk is unavoidable. The things we do know about Imai (his stuff, performance, etc.) are really good though. It’s all very promising.

Passing on Imai to sign a more proven Major League starter would be completely reasonable to me. If the Yankees decide the Imai bidding is getting out of their comfort zone and they pivot to, say, signing King or trading for Ryan, I’m totally cool with that. I would not be okay with passing on Imai because the Yankees want to fill the rotation with the pitcher equivalent of 2025 Paul Goldschmidt, even if it’s only for a bridge year to Skubal. Aaron Judge will be 34 in April. The clock is ticking. The most important year is next year, not the year after or some other year down the line.

Does Imai make sense for the Yankees? Yes, he does. Is signing him imperative? I don’t think so. There’s a path to a very good offseason and a strong 2026 rotation that doesn’t involve Imai and is instead built around spending similar dollars on one of the many other good free agent starters. The age, stuff, and off-the-field value have me favoring Imai over Cease, Gallen, King, et al. There is a world where pivoting away from Imai is the best and smartest move the Yankees can make though.

2. Three protected from Rule 5 Draft. The Rule 5 Draft protection deadline was Tuesday evening and there was a pretty fun trade that night. The Rays traded Everson Pereira to the White Sox for Yoendrys Gómez. There were two other players involved, but no one notable. The crux of the trade was Pereira for YoGo. Old pal for old pal. Seems like a better playing time/development situation for both.

Anyway, the Yankees added three players to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes: RHP Chase Hampton, OF Spencer Jones, and RHP Elmer Rodríguez (he dropped the Cruz recently). No surprises there. Jones and Rodríguez were gimmes and I thought Hampton was too even though he’ll be shelved until mid-2026 with Tommy John surgery. Much lesser prospects have been Rule 5ed and stashed on the 60-day injured list.

(Hampton going on the 40-man kinda sorta confirms his rehab is going well. If he had a setback that put his 2026 in question, the Yankees probably wouldn’t have protected him.)

The most notable prospects the Yankees left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft are RHP Brendan Beck, LHP Allen Facundo, LHP Henry Lalane, 1B T.J. Rumfield, and LHP Brock Selvidge. RHP Harrison Cohen showed up in Baseball America’s Rule 5 Draft preview (subs. req’d), but eh, not sure he’ll be a priority target for anyone. Righty relievers with a 93 mph fastball who can’t consistently land anything for strikes (14.4 BB% in 2025) are a dime a dozen. If Cohen gets popped, so be it. I wouldn’t sweat it.

Beck and Selvidge would seem to have the best chance to get Rule 5ed and actually stick because they can be tucked away in the back of the bullpen as a low leverage multi-inning reliever. The Low-A to MLB jump is just too big to think Facundo or Lalane can make it successfully in 2026 (plus Lalane’s been hurt a ton). Low power first basemen like Rumfield aren’t really a thing these days unless you’re Luis Arraez or, for some reason, Nolan Schanuel. It’s a power position.

The Yankees probably won’t make a Rule 5 Draft pick because they haven’t made one in forever, but the Marlins didn’t protect RHP Matt Pushard. He had a good full season in Triple-A (3.61 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 28.5 K%, 9.0 BB%) and has a fastball that topped out at 98 mph and a curveball that maxed out at 3,000 rpm. Pushard was on my radar for the Offseason Plan is the kinda hard-throwing middle reliever the Yankees haven’t had in their bullpen in some time. Depending on the 40-man situation, Rule 5ing Pushard and giving him a Spring Training look-see could be worthwhile.

Anyway, Ryan Yarbrough’s re-signing still isn’t official, so the Yankees technically have one open 40-man spot. They have a few easily DFAable players (Allan Winans, etc.) plus the non-tender deadline is Friday, as in today. Jake Cousins, Scott Effross, Ian Hamilton, and Mark Leiter Jr. appear most in danger of getting let go. The Yankees will likely open a few 40-man spots later today. That’s the state of the roster. One open 40-man spot (technically) with Hampton, Jones, and Rodríguez added.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Jasson Domínguez made his winter ball debut Monday. He’s 1-for-13 with a walk through three games. He played left field the first game, DH the second game, and left field the third game. The every other day thing might just be part of his build up or a condition the Yankees set on his winter ball participation. MLB teams dictate how their players are used all the time. Anyway, Domínguez’s teammates with Leones del Escogido include Domingo Acevedo, Jimmy Cordero, Franchy Cordero, Jorge Mateo, Jimmy Paredes, and Gio Urshela. A treasure trove of Remembering Some Yankees … And finally, MLB announced its new national television deals earlier this week. NBC/Peacock and Netflix are picking up exclusive broadcasts and some postseason games too. Here are the details. To watch the Yankees next season you will need YES, Amazon Prime, Apple TV, ESPN, Netflix, NBC/Peacock, FOX/FS1, and, if they make the postseason, TBS. Also, MLBtv runs through ESPN now, not MLB itself. You have to subscribe to ESPN’s streaming service to get MLBtv. At least they make the sport easy to access.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Juan asks: Can the Yankees and Grisham tear up the qualifying offer and create a new contract for several years? What would that look like historically and what would Grisham actually accept?

Yep, it’s doable. The White Sox and José Abreu did this during the 2019-20 offseason. He accepted the $17.8M qualifying offer, then they ripped that up and agreed to a three-year, $50M extension that lowered his 2020 salary to $11M. Here’s what the contract projections had for Trent Grisham:

• The Athletic (subs. req'd): 3 years, $54M ($18M per year)

• ESPN: 4 years, $90M ($22.5M per year)

• FanGraphs: 3 years, $54M ($18M per year)

• MLBTR: 4 years, $66M ($16.5M per year)

Let’s go even lower and say Grisham is willing to tear up the qualifying offer and take three years and $45M. That guarantees him more money, gives him plenty of security around a potential lockout, and allows him to give free agency another go at 32. That's not so old that a multi-year contract is out of the question.

Is it worth taking on that 2027-28 money to lower Grisham’s 2026 luxury tax hit from $22.025M to $15M? I don’t think so. The $7.025M in savings won’t buy you a whole lot in free agency, and if that relatively small chunk of change ($7.025M!) stops the Yankees from doing something, then that’s just Hal Steinbrenner being a loser. One year and $22.025M is perfectly fine for Grisham. It won’t stop the Yankees from doing anything they weren’t already looking for an excuse not to do.

Bob asks: In the event the Yankees do not bring back Bellinger or land Tucker, I have two Option B plans to ponder.

#1 Sign Bichette to play 2B and move Jazz to CF with LF going to Dominguez or Jones or PTBNL or

#2 Sign Alonso to split 1B with Rice and DH with Stanton. I figure Stanton can not be counted on for more than 120 games and Rice can catch 60-70 games ensuring enough at bats for the three. With that fire power the outfield can be less productive.

What do you think?

Go with Option 1. Jazz Chisholm Jr. would hate it, but he would ultimately go back to center because he’s a team player. I just don’t want to go long-term with soon-to-be 31-year-old Pete Alonso. Bo Bichette isn’t far off from Alonso offensively (141 wRC+ vs. 134 wRC+ in 2025), he’s three years younger, and he plays a more important position. Bichette looked pretty good at second base in the World Series considering he was playing through a knee injury and had never played the position in the big leagues before.

Also, I’m really not into Ben Rice at catcher. He looked pretty stiff back there and his throwing numbers (arm strength, pop time, etc.) were all near the bottom of the league, per Statcast. Rice can catch now and then, but putting him back there for 60-70 games is asking for trouble, I think. Also, the more he catches, the more you have to assume wear and tear will show up in his offense, and I’d rather not risk it. Keep Rice at first base and let him bang. I’d treat him as an emergency third catcher, honestly.

The Yankees could make it work with Alonso or Bichette. Either way they’d have to put someone at a position you don’t want them to play (Jazz in center, Rice at catcher, etc.), so it comes down to a) which defensive alignment hurts less, and b) do you prefer Alonso or Bichette? I think Chisholm in center has a better chance to work than Rice as a half-time catcher, and I’d rather sign Bichette to a large contract than Alonso, so Option 1 is my pick. (Option 2 wouldn’t be bad, necessarily, just less good than Option 1.)

Mike asks: I'll preface by saying I don't want Manny Machado on the Yankees at this stage because of age and his backloaded contact. That aside, and it's a huge aside, is there a scenario and price point where he makes sense as a trade target? We know the Padres will want him off the books. Would they pay part of his contract down?

Machado is 33 now and he’s still humming along as a 120 wRC+, 28-ish homer, plus defense, +3.5 WAR player. That could change any year given his age, but he’s still a very good player. The Padres owe Machado $21M in 2026 and then his salary jumps to $35M a year from 2027-33, so that’s eight years and $266M to go. The team up for sale, you know they’d love to shed as much of that as possible. (Machado has 10-and-5 rights and my guess is he’d agree to a trade to the Yankees.)

As good as he still is, Machado would not get eight years and $266M as a free agent this offseason. Does four years and $120M seem right? There’s no good contract comparison for a player like Machado. Guys like him are all signed long-term and not hitting the market at age 33. Let’s call it five years and $150M, or $30M per year. That would require the Padres to eat $116M*, which would easily clear the $60M or so the Angels paid the Rangers to take Josh Hamilton as the most money included in a trade in history.

* That $116M would presumably include taking Ryan McMahon and the $32M he’s owed in the trade as a salary offset, so San Diego would really be paying down $84M.

Five years at $30M a year would be my absolute limit for Machado and I would justify going that far by saying Aaron Judge turns 34 in April and my window to win a World Series with him as the centerpiece is closing, so I’ll live with that fifth year to get a really good player in the short-term. It’s still a lot to take on for a 33-year-old, even one who still performs like Machado. Needless to say, there’s no reason to think this’ll happen.

(The Yankees not signing 26-year-old Machado and then trading for 33-year-old Machado would be my villain origin story.)

Michael asks: The A's made some interesting roster decisions this week by DFA'ing Bleday and not adding Susac to the 40-man roster.  What are your thoughts on a waiver claim for Bleday and a Rule V pick for Susac? Bleday had a rough year and is clearly not a centerfielder, but he's been much better in LF. If the Yankees were to re-sign Bellinger, he could provide the depth that would allow them to trade Dominguez and update the roster elsewhere. I'm doubting that Susac would even make it to the Yankees in the draft, but serving on the short side of the platoon with Wells could help prevent him from getting overwhelmed by making the leap to MLB and the Yankees could work with him on his defense to level up his game.

JJ Bleday has pedigree (No. 4 pick in 2019) but he’s a worse version of Jasson Domínguez. Poor defender and can’t hit lefties (though he had reverse splits in 2025), but without El Marciano’s baserunning, hard-hit ability, or patience. Bleday’s a low-end exit velocity guy who maxes out his offense by pulling everything in the air, which would play well as a lefty in Yankee Stadium. 

If the Yankees re-sign Bellinger and trade Domínguez, their fourth outfielder has to be a righty bat, no? Bellinger can hit lefties but Trent Grisham can’t (or didn’t in 2025), and there’s a shortage of righty bats on the roster in general behind Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Replacing Domínguez with a worse version of Domínguez would be missing an opportunity to build a better, more well-rounded roster. Minor league deal? Sure, whatever, but I wouldn’t target Bleday as an MLB roster guy.

Daniel Susac is more interesting and potentially a better fit as a right-handed hitting catcher. He’s another former high pick (No. 19 in 2022) and he had an okay year in the very hitter friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League: .275/.349/.483 (95 wRC+) and 18 homers. Susac’s got some hard-hit ability. He just swings at everything (38% chase rate in Triple-A) and gets himself out too often. Here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote about Susac’s defense in their most recent scouting report:

Defensively, Susac is a solid athlete despite his size. His receiving would benefit from a bit more attention to detail—especially gloveside—and he still throws better from his knees as opposed to popping up out of his crouch … Susac’s hitting and defensive abilities allow for a ceiling of a second-division big league catcher

The Yankees can help Susac improve behind the plate, so it seems like the skills are there for a dingers-and-defense backup. The only thing is it’s really hard to carry a Rule 5 Draft pick catcher. Liam Hicks stuck with the Marlins this year and he’s the first Rule 5 catcher to stick since Luis Torrens in 2017, and Torrens sticking was an aggressive act of tanking. He had no business being in the big leagues at that age and at that point in his development.

I wouldn’t use a Rule 5 pick on Susac (the Yankees probably don’t have the 40-man roster flexibility to make a Rule 5 pick this offseason anyway) but I would be interested in trading for him and stashing him in Triple-A, and working on his defense/approach down there. Wait until after the Rule 5 Draft and maybe you can hook up with the Athletics for a “my Rule 5 eligible guy who didn’t get picked for your Rule 5 eligible guy who didn’t get picked” trade. Brendan Beck or Brock Selvidge for Susac, something like that.

Harrison asks: Any interest in a Nestor Cortes reunion; perhaps on a backloaded two year deal like the one they did for Jon Lieber back in the day?

When Nestor came back from the flexor strain to pitch in the 2024 World Series, he knew he was risking a more serious injury, but said “if I have a ring and then a year off of baseball, then so be it.” Cortes and the Yankees didn’t get the ring but he got the more serious injury. He was limited to eight starts by more flexor trouble in 2025 and he had surgery to repair a tear in October. It’ll sideline him 9-10 months, so most of 2026. The 2024 World Series didn’t work out, but I will never not respect Nestor for putting it on the line like he did. Pitching that series might’ve cost him a free agent payday this offseason.

The Yankees taking care of their guy and signing Cortes to a two-year rehab deal would be very cool. For baseball reasons though, I can’t do it. Nestor’s whole thing was getting elite “rise” on his 92 mph fastball, and it wasn’t there this past season, hence 13 homers in 34.1 innings. Maybe the surgery corrects that and he bounces back with a healthy arm, but guys like Cortes, who don’t operate with a big margin of error, often suffer the most with major arm injuries. They’re just too diminished afterward. Nestor is one of my favorite Yankees of the last 10 years and I’ll always love the guy, but he’s not someone I would sink any guaranteed money into at this point in his career. For shame.

A different Bob asks: The Dodgers have not been bad since 2010, so why is their farm system actually good and not middling like the Yankees? Is it all international scouting?

After the trade deadline, the Dodgers had the No. 1 farm system per MLB Pipeline and the No. 7 farm system per Baseball America (subs. req’d), which is excellent for a team that trades a lot of prospects, never picks high in the draft, and regularly forfeits picks/international bonus pool money to sign top free agents. They don’t have much homegrown talent on their MLB roster. Their only core homegrown guy is Will Smith, then you have secondary contributors like Andy Pages and Emmet Sheehan.

The Dodgers are really good at pumping up their prospects, then trading them. Michael Busch and Ryan Pepiot are the only prospects they’ve traded within the last few years who became good players elsewhere. Jacob Amaya, Jeter Downs, Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz, Miguel Vargas, Mitch White, and others had a good amount of prospect hype, but haven’t amounted to much. Part of that is just prospects not being sure things (and Gray getting hurt), but the Dodgers self-scout well. They know who to trade and who to keep. (The Yankees do this well too, I think.)

Farm system-wise, I think the biggest difference between the Dodgers and the Yankees are the trades, specifically the Dodgers’ willingness to move role players. Guys like Gavin Lux, Kenta Maeda, Yasiel Puig, Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and even Busch were all useful players, but instead of keeping them to fill lower importance roles, they were traded for prospects. Lux was traded for Mike Sirota, who’s now a top 100 guy. Maeda turned into Brusdar Graterol. Puig and Wood were traded for Downs and Gray. 

The Yankees have started to do this. They turned Lucas Luetge into Caleb Durbin, Carlos Narváez into Elmer Rodríguez, and Oswald Peraza into Wilberson De Pena (I was surprised at how many of my inside baseball pals like De Pena). The Dodgers just do it at a greater scale. Baseball America (subs. req’d) put out their top 10 Dodgers prospects this week and three of the top five were acquired in trades. Rodríguez is the best prospect in the system the Yankees acquired in a trade. Second best is, uh, Jace Avina?

To wrap it up, I think there are two key differences between the Dodgers’ and Yankees’ farm systems. I don’t think it’s player development and I don’t think it’s drafting either (L.A.’s recent first rounders have kinda stunk). I think it’s, one, the Dodgers are more aggressive trading MLB players for prospects, and two, they are much better internationally. The Yankees have been really bad at the top of the international amateur market the last few years (so they fired their international scouting director). This answer is much longer than I expected, but I think that’s all it is. More trades and better international signings.

David asks: Is it just me or are pitcher shoulder injuries not nearly as prevalent as they used to be? While pretty much every pitcher these days winds up dealing with TJS or some other elbow issue eventually, it seems like we don’t have nearly as many torn labrums, thoracic outlet syndrome cases etc. compared to 10-15 years ago. A) does the data back that up and B) if so is there any reason why teams are now able to protect the shoulder of pitchers but not the elbow?

I can't find it now but I remember reading something a few years ago (it might’ve been as far back as 2020 at this point) showing elbow injuries are trending up but catastrophic shoulder injuries are on the decline. The combination labrum/rotation cuff tear, torn capsules, SLAP tears, etc. The major shoulder injuries that ruin careers. You still see plenty of shoulder strains and inflammation and things like that, but the full blowouts are on the decline, or at least they were when I read whatever it was that I read.

I’m not qualified to answer why this is the case. It probably has to do with training, right? Anecdotally, shoulder blowouts seem like wear and tear injuries that happen over time whereas the UCL is this tiny little piece of whatever ligaments are made out of. You don’t have that same “you threw that pitch wrong and now you’ll miss 18 months” potential with shoulders that you do with elbows. I have no idea though. All I know is that, at some point within the last few years, I read a thing showing major shoulder injuries are trending down while elbow injuries are on the rise. Elbows are generally fixable. Shoulders are much more difficult to repair and rehab.

Steve asks: You have said (joked?) many times that the 2020 season didn’t count. Which player do you think was damaged most by missing that as a complete season. As in final career numbers? Do you think that short season will screw someone over for a final count on a legit stat like HRs? Wins? Etc? Judge has a few injury filled seasons prior to that year and including that season. Crazy that he “only” hit 63 home runs from 2018-2020.

You know who benefited most from that bizarre 2020 season? David Fletcher, who just announced his retirement. 2020 was his only good offensive year …

… and the Angels gave him a $26M extension the next spring. Granted, he was a very good defender, but the Angels didn’t give Fletcher all that money expecting him to be an all-glove player. Good for him.

Anyway, Freddie Freeman might lose 3,000 hits to 2020. He just turned 36 and he’ll go into next year with 2,431 career hits. Between injuries and age-related decline, he’s been a 150-160 hits a year player the last two seasons rather than the 170-190 hits a year guy he was most of his career. If he averages 150 hits a year moving forward, it’ll take him close to four seasons to get to 3,000 hits. Could Freeman get there? Sure, but it’s not hard to see him falling just short of 3,000 because of the pandemic.

Justin Verlander has 266 career wins and he blew out his elbow on Opening Day 2020, which cost him the rest of that season and all of 2021. Does he avoid Tommy John surgery with a normal build up and Spring Training in 2020? If so, maybe he picks up an additional 25-30 wins in 2020 and 2021, and is that much closer to 300. Verlander won four games in 2025 and five in 2024. He’ll turn 43 in February. Hanging on to get those last 34 wins could be awfully tough.

The pandemic definitely cost Zack Greinke 3,000 strikeouts. He retired with 2,979 and was still a strikeout an inning guy in 2020. Paul Goldschmidt might fall short of 400 homers because of the pandemic. He has 372. Did you know Kenley Jansen is fourth all-time with 476 saves? He was really good in 2025, though he just turned 38, and a closer’s job is not a given. The pandemic might be the reason Jansen does not become the third pitcher in the 500 saves club. 

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton could both fall just short of 500 homers, but they had so many injuries over the years that it’s hard to blame 2020. Gerrit Cole’s sitting on 153 career wins. The pandemic cut into his chances of getting to 200. Freeman and Verlander look like the biggest losers here because 3,000 hits and 300 wins are huge milestones, and it’s no lock they get there now.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)