Quick thoughts after Trent Grisham accepts the qualifying offer

The Yankees have their 2026 center fielder and, presumably, their leadoff hitter (to begin the season, at least). Trent Grisham is one of a record four players who accepted the $22.025M qualifying offer, joining Shota Imanaga, Brandon Woodruff, and old pal Gleyber Torres. 14 players accepted the qualifying offer from 2012-25, and now four took it going into 2026. I think that says more about the players who got the qualifying offer than it does concern about next offseason’s lockout, but who knows.

"We’re comfortable. This is a very thin outfield market. If he turns it down, that means the market is flush with teams that have the need," Brian Cashman said at the GM Meetings last week when asked about Grisham’s decision (via SNY). "He had a hell of a year for us, was one of the big reasons we had the level of success we did, and we’d be happy if he accepted and came back."

Obvious statement is obvious: You don’t offer a guy $22.025M and put the ball entirely in his court unless you’re comfortable with him taking it. If Grisham accepting the qualifying offer would blow up the Yankees’ offseason plans, they wouldn’t have offered it. Do I think Trent will hit 34 home runs again? No, I do not, but I do expect his defense to rebound with a healthy hamstring, and the underlying offensive skills are strong. He just turned 29. That’s a pretty good age for a ballplayer.

The Yankees literally did not have a center fielder coming into the offseason. They don’t seem willing to put Jasson Domínguez out there and I don’t buy for a second that they were comfortable with Spencer Jones being their Opening Day center fielder. Including Cody Bellinger, there are six center fielders in the game projected for +3 WAR in 2026, and you’re not getting five of them. Grisham coming back for one year – even an expensive year – is a good outcome to me.

Cashman said Grisham accepting the qualifying offer would not affect their Bellinger pursuit – “If both of those guys come back, then maybe it creates trade flexibility,” he said – though I don’t love the idea of running back the same exact offense in 2026. Then again, the Yankees have not been connected to Bo Bichette or Kyle Tucker, and they don’t sign top free agent hitters away from other teams anymore anyway, so who are they supposed to pursue if not Bellinger? Any trade candidates (Steven Kwan, etc.) are still on the table.

Maybe I’m misreading things, but I don't think Grisham’s one-year contract will change how aggressively the Yankees pursue someone like Tatsuya Imai. He’s getting multiple years, and if a one-year deal stops you from making a longer term commitment, I’m not sure I buy you being super interested. The Yankees are unlikely to sign Bichette or Tucker because they just don’t sign top hitters now. They’re unlikely to sign Imai because they already have three big long-term pitching contracts on the books, not because they have Grisham for another year.

Adding in Grisham and the not-yet-officially-re-signed Ryan Yarbrough, my quick math has the Yankees at about $285M going into 2026. If payroll stays at the same $318M-ish level as the last two seasons, that leaves about $35M to spend, with few ways to cut. David Bednar, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Ryan McMahon are the only players the Yankees could realistically trade to free up money, and doing so would only open another (pretty big) hole on the roster.

The Yankees can’t trade Grisham without his consent until June 15th and I guess they could rework the contract to lower the luxury tax number (more total dollars over more years, etc.), but eh, no need to do that. Stick with one year. I’m happy with Grisham in 2026. Grisham in 2027 and beyond doesn’t excite me. We’ll see what happens with Bellinger and the pitching now, but the center field box is checked. That’s a pretty big item off the offseason to-do list.

(The Magic 8 Ball told me Grisham would decline the qualifying offer in the Offseason Plan. Near the end of that post, I quickly explained what I probably would’ve done had he accepted.)