November 18th, 2025: Judge, Yarbrough, Bellinger, Chisholm

Congrats to Tyler Wade for getting the Aaron Judge MVP party invite.

The 2025-26 Offseason Plan went live last Friday, in case you missed it. It’s a labor of love but I’m glad to have it off my plate. The next big project is my annual Top 30 Prospects list (last year's). That’s a few months off though. That runs the Friday before pitchers and catchers report. My super early impression is this would be a good year for a top 20 or 25. Getting to 30 will be a challenge. That’s a problem for January Mike. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Case closed: Judge wins MVP. I wonder whose career year Aaron Judge will spoil next season? One year after beating out Bobby Witt Jr’s +10.5 WAR season for AL MVP, Judge edged out Cal Raleigh and his 60-homer season to win his second straight AL MVP, and the third of his career. With Shohei Ohtani taking home NL honors, it’s the first time in history there were repeat MVPs in both leagues.

“It’s tough for me to wrap my head around it,” Judge said about winning his third MVP. “It’s really kind of mind-blowing. I just play this game to win. I play this game for my teammates, my family, all the fans in New York. I just want to go out there and give them my best every single day.”

It was a close vote: Judge received 17 first place votes and Raleigh received the other 13. That works out to 355 voting points for Judge and 335 for Raleigh, making it the closest MVP race in either league since Mike Trout beat out Alex Bregman by the same 355-335 margin in 2019. Raleigh is the first player other than Judge or Ohtani to get a first place AL MVP vote since José Abreu won it in 2020.

It’s funny too, because Judge laid out the case for Raleigh deserving MVP during his interview with MLB Network before the announcement. Judge is incapable of talking about himself and he praised Raleigh for his defense, the way he works with the pitching staff, playing through the wear and tear, etc. And that was the case for Raleigh because, offensively, it was not close. Look at Judge’s numbers:

• .331 AVG (led MLB by 20 points, Raleigh had a .247 AVG)

• .457 OBP (led MLB by 58 points, Raleigh had a .359 OBP)

• .688 SLG (led MLB by 66 points, Raleigh had a .589 SLG)

• 204 wRC+ (led MLB by 32 points, Raleigh had a 161 wRC+)

I don’t want to dump on Raleigh because he’s a great player who had a historic year, and he seems like a swell guy too, but Judge reached base 57 (!) more times than Raleigh in 26 fewer plate appearances. He had 21 more total bases too. Even with those 60 home runs, Raleigh was, fittingly, 99 points behind Judge in slugging percentage. Raleigh was closer to Spencer Horwitz in wRC+ than he was to Judge.

Any MVP argument based on Raleigh leading the Mariners to the AL West title while Judge’s Yankees were a Wild Card team is silly. The Yankees had a better record (94-68 vs. 90-72) and run differential (+164 vs. +72) run differential than the Mariners, and the Yankees mopped the floor with them head-to-head (5-1 with a +17 run differential). It’s not Judge’s (or Raleigh’s) fault the AL West is inferior to the AL East.

But again, I don’t want to dump on Raleigh, because hitting 60 home runs as a catcher is freaking insane. He’s also a great defender* and his pitchers love him, and I am happy to buy into the idea that there are things about catching we can’t quantify. Enough to close the gap in FanGraphs WAR (+10.1 WAR vs. +9.1 WAR)? Sure. I could buy it. I don’t think Raleigh winning would’ve been egregious. He didn’t though.

* Raleigh was charged with 39 wild pitches and zero passed balls in 2025. Zero! There’s just no chance that reflects what actually happened, right? Even the best catchers whiff on one now and then. Zero passed balls tells me Raleigh got some good ol’ hometown scoring.

Judge has three MVPs and you can argue he should have a fourth (2017). He’s the 13th player with three MVPs – only Barry Bonds (seven) and Ohtani (four) have more – and three MVPs is all-time great legacy stuff. We can put the other 12 three-time MVPs into three buckets:

• Hall of Famers: Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Mike Schmidt

• Will be in the Hall of Fame once eligible: Ohtani, Trout, Albert Pujols

• Not in the Hall of Fame because of PEDs: Bonds, Alex Rodriguez

Judge is in that middle group. He could retire tomorrow and he’s already done enough to get into the Hall of Fame because his peak is so immense. Judge joins Bonds and Ohtani as the only players to win three MVPs in a four-year span, and the one time in those four years Judge didn’t win, he played at an MVP level, but missed two months because he literally ran through the Dodger Stadium wall for his team. 

“I know I say this often when meeting with our media throughout the season, but I don’t ever want to become desensitized by the consistency and the enormity of his accomplishments,” Aaron Boone said in a statement. “It’s becoming increasingly difficult for me to use words to capture how good he is. He’s just playing at a higher level, and has been for quite some time.”

Judge also won his second straight and third career Hank Aaron Award as the league’s top hitter, and he was named to the All-MLB First Team for the fourth time. That's the second most ever behind Ohtani’s six (Ohtani double-dipped as a DH and starting pitcher in 2021 and 2022). Raleigh won the MLBPA’s Player of the Year award, so his peers recognized him for his season. Judge took home everything else.

The only thing left at this point is a World Series ring. The resume is full otherwise. Judge has to perform in the postseason to get that ring, though he is only one man. Vlad Guerrero Jr. just had an all-time great postseason and the Blue Jays still lost the World Series. To get a ring, Judge has to do his part and the rest of the Yankees have to pull their weight, and that includes ownership and the front office. What a year though. What a player.

“I think I’d trade every award I’ve gotten and every All-Star appearance for an opportunity to win a championship,” Judge said. “That’s my main focus. That’s why I wake up every day.”

2. Latest hot stove news and rumors. The offseason’s first significant move went down Sunday: Josh Naylor is going back to the Mariners. That was one of the more obvious free agent/team pairings of the winter. Naylor joins Freddie Freeman as the only first basemen to get at least five years since 2018. Long gone are the days of enormous Prince Fielder/Mark Teixeira first base contracts. Anyway, let’s catch up on Yankees-related tidbits from last week’s GM Meetings, shall we?

Yarbrough returns

The first move of the offseason. Ryan Yarbrough is returning to the Yankees on a one-year deal worth $2.5M, per Joel Sherman. There’s another $250,000 in incentives. Last week Gary Phillips reported the two sides had mutual interest in a reunion, and it got done quickly. I gave Yarbrough a minor league deal as part of the Offseason Plan, so I underestimated his market. There was a guaranteed Major League contract out there after all.

Yarbrough, 34 next month, had a 4.36 ERA (5.04 FIP) in 64 innings around a lengthy oblique injury this past season. It was a 3.90 ERA (4.74 FIP) before the injury and a 7.27 ERA (6.94 FIP) in limited time after the injury. Yarbrough added a few whiffs this year after the Yankees tweaked his changeup, and he did it without sacrificing any of his near-MLB-best ability to limit exit velocity.

A year ago Yarbrough had a 3.19 ERA (4.64 FIP) and had to settle for a minor league contract because free agency is not kind to soft-tossers in their mid-30s. He had a statistically worse season in 2025 and got a Major League deal. Ignore the ERA. Yarbrough learned a new trick (more strikeouts) and still gets a ton of weak contact, plus he can start or relieve. It was odd Yarbrough had to settle for a minor league contract last offseason more than it’s odd he got a big league contract this offseason.

To be sure, Yarbrough didn’t break the bank. He made $2M this season with $250,000 in incentives, so it’s the same contract with an extra $500,000 because the Yankees can afford to give guys an extra $500,000. It’s so cheap and Yarbrough is one of those dudes who can fit anywhere on a pitching staff. He can give you spot starts, be a long man, a matchup lefty, etc. You don’t want Yarbrough making 28 starts and throwing 150 innings, but 80-90 swingman innings? Sure. And if things go poorly, DFAing him would be pretty painless.

The rotation right now is Max Fried, Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, and TBD. I don’t think Yarbrough is penciled into that TBD spot. I think the Yankees will add a legitimate starter this winter and Yarbrough is just a depth guy. The Yankees seem to know his limitations based on how they used him this summer. He’s a swingman and a solid one. It’s hard to beat what Yarbrough can give you (80-ish competent innings) for that price tag. Boring move but a solid and reasonable one. Welcome back, Yarbs.

"We’ll be exploring how to protect ourselves so we’re not taking on water early because our rotation is compromised out of the gate,” Brian Cashman told Erik Boland last week. “It’s an area for us to focus on."

Yankees, Boras have talked Bellinger reunion

During the GM Meetings last week, Scott Boras said he and the Yankees have already discussed a Cody Bellinger reunion, and Cashman said Trent Grisham accepting the qualifying offer likely would not change things with Bellinger. “If both of those guys come back, then maybe it creates trade flexibility,” Cashman told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d), presumably referring to Jasson Domínguez.

“He was a terrific addition for us last year. He played a big role in the amount of success we wound up having,” Cashman said about Bellinger (video). “Certainly we’d love to have him come back to us. We’d be better served if we can retain him, but if not, then we’ll have to look at alternative ways to fill it and see where that takes us. It’s pretty early in the process, but I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Of course we’d like to have him back.”

Three things about this. One, there hasn’t been anything connecting the Yankees to Kyle Tucker. It’s been pretty quiet around Tucker period, but when the Yankees want a top free agent, they usually make it known early. Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge, CC Sabathia, Juan Soto, etc. They were in on those guys very, very early in the offseason and made it known their market ran through the Yankees. That hasn’t happened with Tucker.

Two, chances are Boras will delay Bellinger’s decision until after Tucker signs. That’s been his move for a long time. Wait until the top guy signs so the teams that had interest in him pivot to your client. Ultimately, Bellinger is in charge, and if he wants to come back to the Yankees and not wait around, it’ll happen. But guys hire Boras because they want the most money. Waiting is one way Boras gets it.

(Bellinger had to wait until late February to re-sign with the Cubs two offseasons ago. He may not want to do that again and could sign early.)

And three, the willingness to re-sign Bellinger even if Grisham takes the qualifying offer tells us the Yankees are ready to hand out two $20M+ a year contracts this offseason, but only kinda. It would only be a one-year commitment for Grisham. Grisham coming back on the qualifying offer is not the same as signing Mike King or Tatsuya Imai or some other pitcher to a multi-year contract worth $20M+ annually.

Including arbitration projections and now Yarbrough, the Yankees have about $262M on the books next season. If they keep payroll in the same $315M to $320M range as the last two years, they have plenty to spend on Bellinger, Grisham, and a pitcher. If they don’t, and they cut payroll to $300M or so (the highest luxury tax penalty tier is $304M next season), then Bellinger and Grisham is your offseason, with little to spend elsewhere.

Cashman has been vocal about wanting to retain Bellinger. I don’t think a reunion is inevitable and I’m not sure I would even call it likely (there seems to be a healthy market for Bellinger), but it's pretty clear who the Yankees are prioritizing this offseason, and it isn’t Tucker. (Bellinger got a few down ballot MVP votes, by the way. He was the only Yankee other than Aaron Judge to get an MVP vote.)

No extension talks with Jazz (yet)

The Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade is the best trade the Yankees have made in some time. They gave up nothing they really miss to get 2.5 years of a dynamic power/speed player at a position with shocking few good players around the league. Here is the 2025 second base WAR leaderboard. This is WAR accumulated only at second base (so it doesn’t include Jazz’s third base time, etc.):

1. Nico Hoerner: +4.6 WAR
2. Brice Turang: +4.4 WAR
3. Ketel Marte: +3.4 WAR
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: +3.1 WAR
5. Brendan Donovan: +3.0 WAR

Hoerner and Turang both played 150+ games at second base. Chisholm, Donovan, and Marte were in the 97-102 games played range at second due to injury, moving around, or both. Only a handful of others got to +2 WAR at second base. It is a thin position league-wide, and with Chisholm now a year away from free agency, it’s time to think about an extension. Cashman said there have been no talks yet though.

“I guess that remains to be seen,” Cashman said (video). “… Not sure how that would play out. But we have not had any conversations outside of he’s looking forward to playing next year, he loves playing here. And, if we’re open (to it), if you want to have a legitimate conversation about value, (he’s) open to a longer-term conversation as well.”

Jazz has made it no secret he loves being a Yankee and playing in New York. Enough to take a discount to stay? Maybe, but we can’t say that for sure. It’s still a business and players only have so much time to get paid before the game decides it’s done with them. The quick pros and cons of locking up Jazz:

Pros: He’s a really good player who contributes in every phase. Jazz is an above-average hitter, an above-average defender, and an above-average runner. He’s the best/speediest baserunner on the Yankees and you can make a good case that, based on the current roster, he’s their best non-catcher defensive player and their second best hitter.

Cons: Chisholm has an injury history. Even excluding COVID, he’s gone on the injured list at least once every year since 2021 (seven total IL trips those five years). You kinda have to pencil him in as a 130 games a year player, not a 150 games a year player. Also, Chisholm is strikeout prone, and, as he ages, his speed/baserunning will become less of a factor.

To me, the pros outweigh the cons. Chisholm will turn only 28 in February, so still has a lot of prime years ahead of him, and again, there just aren’t many good second baseman out there. Hoerner will be a free agent after next season as well, so maybe waiting for him is the play, but we can’t be sure Hoerner will hit the market. He’s already extended once with the Cubs. Maybe he’ll do it again? (If Hoerner does hit the market, the Yankees could sign him to play short, but I digress.)

There are rumblings about Marte being available because he’s frustrated teammates by taking days off and because he picks up 10-and-5 no-trade protection in April, meaning the Diamondbacks have only so many months left to trade him without his permission. Marte is an excellent player. He’s also 32 and has six years and $102.5M remaining on his contract. You’re buying a lot of decline there.

In 2026, I would want Marte. From 2027 to 2030 or so, I’d rather have Chisholm. We don’t actually know if Marte is available, and, even if he is, you’ll have to trade something significant to get him. Jazz is already on the team and you know he fits in well. The path of least resistance is extending the very good player you already have, not seeking out a slightly better (and several years older) player.

The only infielders to sign extensions at Chisholm’s service time level in recent years are Rafael Devers and Vlad Guerrero Jr., so yeah, we don’t have any good contract benchmarks to look at. Let’s spitball an extension from scratch. How’s this sound?

• 2026: $10M (final arbitration season) (projected for $10.2M)

• 2027-30: $20M per year (free agent years)

• 2031: $25M club option

That’s five years and $90M guaranteed. Throw in a signing bonus and a buyout on the club option, and we could easily push it to $100M. That would cover Chisholm’s age 28-32 seasons with an option for his age 33 season. Five years and $100M with an option for a sixth year feels light to me. Perhaps we have to add a year and make it six years and $120M with an option for a seventh year?

I will note that second base is not a big contract position. Jose Altuve (twice), Robinson Canó, and Marcus Semien are the only second basemen to sign contracts worth $20M+ a year. Add in the upcoming lockout and Jazz’s injury history, and you can see how he might have a more difficult time cashing in next offseason than he would right now. An extension, even at a slight discount, could be his best play.

Most extensions happen in January, February, or March (and, increasingly, April) because that’s when teams talk money with/sign their arbitration and pre-arbitration players. A Chisholm extension is something to discuss further after New Years. Cashman said the Yankees are open to it, at least in the way he says the Yankees are open to anything, and I’m sure Jazz would be all ears. Wanting to get it done is one thing. Getting aligned on value is another.

Tuesday’s deadlines: Qualifying offer and Rule 5 Draft protection

Busy day today. The 13 free agents who received the $22.025M qualifying offer have until 4pm ET to accept or reject it. I didn’t see it myself, but apparently Sherman said Grisham is expected to reject it during an MLB Network appearance last week. That could be wrong, or Grisham could change his mind. We’ll get the answer one way or the other this afternoon. I’m guessing he declines.

“If he turns it down, that means the market is flush with teams that have a need in the outfield, especially center field,” Cashman told Bryan Hoch about Grisham. “He had a hell of a year for us, and one of the big reasons why we had the level of success we did. We’d be happy if he accepted and came back.”

Also, the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline is 6pm ET (I thought it was 4pm ET, my bad). Including Yarbrough, the Yankees have four open 40-man roster spots plus a few easily DFA-able players (Winans, Braden Shewmake, etc.), but remember, they’ll need those spots to upgrade the MLB roster. They need outfield help, a starter, bullpen arms, etc. You can’t just load up your 40-man with prospects.

Here’s a quick rundown of the Yankees’ notable Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects:

• Catchers: Manuel Palencia

• Infielders: T.J. Rumfield

• Outfielders: Jace Avina, Spencer Jones

• Righties: Brendan Beck, Chase Hampton, Eric Reyzelman, Elmer Rodríguez

• Lefties: Henry Lalane, Allen Facundo, Brock Selvidge

(Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz dropped the Cruz and is just Elmer Rodríguez now, according to the official site.)

Jones and the pitcher formerly known as ERC are the only locks to be added to the 40-man. I think Hampton is a good bet to be added, but we’ll see. Eric Longenhagen thinks Facundo, who I wrote a little bit about in September, is a must add given his upside, though that Low-A to MLB jump is massive*. The Yankees do one developmental stash a year with their Rule 5 Draft protection. Maybe Facundo will be that guy this year.

* The history of pitchers making the Low-A to MLB jump as Rule 5 picks is awful, but there is selection bias there. The best Low-A arms go on the 40-man and aren’t available as Rule 5 picks.

Beck and Selvidge seem like the only other protection candidates to me, and they’re useful depth pitchers more than difference-makers. Reyzelman was my No. 20 prospect before the season. He then walked 42 in 42 Triple-A innings and got hurt. Lalane’s had shoulder trouble two years running, Avina and Palencia ain’t sticking on a big league roster all next year, and Rumfield types aren’t the hottest commodity.

Jones and Rodríguez are going on the 40-man. Beck, Facundo, and Selvidge could go either way, and for what it's worth, the Yankees have protected Facundo types (higher upside with more development ahead of them) more than they have Beck/Selvidge types (lower upside but MLB-ready-ish) the last few years. I’ll say they protect Facundo and he joins Jones and Rodríguez on the 40-man roster. We’ll find out later today.

Miscellany

There were a bunch of small, not yet meaningful rumors the last few days. The Yankees have shown interest in Imai, who hasn’t even been posted yet, per Jon Heyman (subs. req’d). They have “potential interest” in Edwin Díaz, per Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). They’ll keep tabs on Luke Weaver and Devin Williams, per Phillips. They have not yet emerged as a suitor for Brad Keller, per Sherman (subs. req’d). Not much there yet, but I figured I’d pass those along anyway. I fully expect the Yankees to chase Imai and I would be surprised if they seriously pursued Díaz given his likely asking price.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Seidler family announced last week that they will “initiate a formal process to explore strategic options” with the Padres, meaning they want to sell the team. Teams often cut payroll ahead of a sale because the less money they have on the books, the more appealing they are to buyers. I answered a mailbag question about a Fernando Tatis Jr. trade last week and it is a little closer to reality now. Maybe it went from 0.25% to 0.5%, but closer … The 2026 Hall of Fame ballot was released Monday. Here’s the ballot, which includes a few notable former Yankees but not anyone who will get voted in this cycle. I have a vote again this year. I already completed the registration and got the thumbs up and everything. I’ll explain my ballot on CBS when the time comes (in January). Here’s my ballot from last year … And finally, the Rays are indeed moving back into Tropicana Field next season. It’s official. The team announced it. The new owner also announced they’re upgrading the scoreboards, the sound system, the suites, and other stuff. It’s the Trop, it can only be so nice, but it’ll be slightly nicer next year. The Yankees will have George M. Steinbrenner Field and all those upgrades the Rays and MLB paid for back for themselves in 2026.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)