SakeTami
RAB Thoughts
RAB Thoughts

patreon


November 7th, 2025: Bellinger, Hill, Loáisiga, Grisham, Spring Training, Judge, Fried, Mailbag

Added 2025-11-07 11:00:13 +0000 UTC

Offseason Plan update: I think we’re good to go for next Friday, Nov. 14th. I can’t 100% commit to that just yet because there’s a chance real life gets in the way (including the Yankees doing something that requires immediate attention), but we’re on track for next week. I’d say it’s 75% done? The last big thing I’m waiting on is the list of minor league free agents, which I hope comes out today. Researching and outlining the Offseason Plan takes up the most time and brain power. Most of what’s left is just pounding away at the keyboard and writing. I’ll give you an update in the intro of Tuesday’s post. I think we’re good for next Friday though. Let’s now get into today’s post.

1. Latest roster moves and notes. The Yankees made their first moves of the offseason this week not because they’re being aggressive. Because the calendar said they had decisions to make. Here are this week’s moves, most of which were easy to see coming. These are all official and have been announced by the relevant parties. 

Bellinger declines player option

As expected, Cody Bellinger declined his $25M player option prior to Thursday’s deadline, and is a free agent. He gets a $5M buyout (the Cubs pay $2.5M of that), so it was a $20M decision for him. Some of the contract projections strike me as 1-2 years too long …

… but that’s free agency and contract projecting for you. The guy picked up a $27.5M player option just last offseason. People remember that, right? Bellinger and Scott Boras weren’t confident they could beat $52.5M (the 2025 + 2026 player options), so he didn’t go back into free agency. What’s changed that raised his value so much? He’s a year older and teams know Yankee Stadium juiced his numbers.

Anyway, Bellinger is officially a free agent. The Yankees can not make him the qualifying offer because he received it from the Cubs two years ago, and you can only get the qualifying offer once in your career. I’m of the opinion that Kyle Tucker, who does almost everything Bellinger does but better, should be the top priority this offseason. Do the Yankees agree? Beats me. We’ll find out in the coming weeks.

“He was an impact player for us,” Brian Cashman said during his end-of-season press conference (video). “I’m glad we got him. He was one of the many reasons why we were in a position to believe that we were capable of great things this year, and so I thank him for everything he’s done. Certainly we’d love to have him with our team moving forward.”

Hill’s club option picked up

Welcome back, Tim Hill. The Yankees picked up his $3M club option. There was a $350,000 buyout, so it was a $2.65M decision. It’s standard lefty matchup guy money. Scott Alexander, Caleb Ferguson, Danny Coulombe, Hoby Milner, and Caleb Thielbar signed for similar dollars last offseason. And Hill, 36 in February, is increasingly moving into lefty matchup guy territory. The 2025 numbers:

Hill gave up eight home runs this season, including seven to righties, which is nearly as many homers as he gave up from 2022-24 (10). There are so many bullpen spots now that I’d like the Yankees to use one on a second lefty with a good strikeout rate. Maybe Brent Headrick, who’s out of options, can be that guy? He had a 30.0 K% vs. lefties in limited time (he also faced 40 lefties and gave up four homers, so).

With the caveat that there's an entire offseason to go, the Yankees now have four relievers we can write into the 2026 bullpen in ink: Hill, David Bednar, Fernando Cruz, and Camilo Doval. They have candidates for the other four spots (Headrick, Jake Bird, Yerry De Los Santos, Ian Hamilton, Mark Leiter Jr., etc.), though there’s plenty of room to add another reliable reliever or two. I’d be shocked if the Yankees didn’t.

Loáisiga’s club option declined

Not surprisingly, the Yankees declined their $5M team option for Jonathan Loáisiga. There was no buyout. Loáisiga returned from UCL surgery on May 16th, threw 29.2 innings with a 4.25 ERA (5.83 FIP), then went back on the injured list with a season-ending flexor strain on Aug. 3rd. He did not need surgery and the expectation is he’ll be ready for Opening Day.

Now 31, Loáisiga never looked like the Terminator version of himself this season and frankly he hasn’t looked like that guy in 2-3 years now. His sinker was more mid-90s than upper-90s and he gave up seven homers in those 29.2 innings after giving up eight homers in 140.1 innings spanning 2021-24. All the arm injuries (elbow, shoulder, flexor, etc.) appear to have taken their toll. For shame.

I can tell you the Yankees absolutely love Loáisiga. They love his makeup and how, at least at one point in time, his stuff chewed even great hitters up (Alex Bregman once said Loáisiga is the toughest pitcher he’s faced). Don’t be surprised if the Yankees re-sign him. It won’t be for $5M and it might not even be a Major League contract, but they love him, and they can be stubborn about giving their faves endless chances.

Grisham gets the qualifying offer

The Yankees did indeed make Trent Grisham the one-year, $22.025M qualifying offer prior to Thursday’s deadline. He’s the only Yankee to get it and the only Yankee who was a candidate to get it. Bellinger was not eligible to receive the QO and Devin Williams pitched his way out of it, even while finishing the season well. He might’ve gotten a QO with a typical Williams season. Alas.

I made the case for giving Grisham the QO last month and hey, the Yankees listened to me. Worst case scenario is Grisham takes it, and you have a 29-year-old center fielder coming off a 34-homer season on a pricey one-year contract, but still a one-year contract. Grisham doesn’t need to hit 34 homers to be a valuable player, plus his defense could bounce back with a healthy hamstring. I’ve been aching for the Yankees to take short-term, big money swings for years. This is exactly what that is.

Of course, Grisham might not even accept the QO. He may never be better positioned going into free agency than he is right now, and with a lockout looming, he may not want to put himself in a situation where he’s a free agent again next offseason. Grisham could decline the QO and pursue a multi-year contract that takes him beyond the work stoppage. He doesn’t have to beat $22.025M in 2026 for it to make sense. He just has to beat $22.025M total, over however many years.

Grisham has until 4pm ET on Tuesday, Nov. 18th to accept or reject the QO, though the decision is sometimes reported earlier. If he declines it and signs elsewhere, the Yankees will get a compensation 2026 draft pick after the fourth round (No. 130 or so). If he takes it, Grisham gets the $22.025M salary next year and the Yankees can’t trade him without his consent until June 15th.

(For what it’s worth, Randy Miller says the Yankees will try to re-sign Bellinger no matter what happens with Grisham. If Grisham accepting the QO would put them in a bind, the Yankees wouldn't have extended it.)

Castro added to 40-man

Say hello to this year’s Yerry De Los Santos. Like De Los Santos last offseason, the Yankees added righty Kervin Castro to the 40-man roster to prevent him from becoming a minor league free agent. The 26-year-old has a minor league option remaining and will ride the bullpen shuttle in 2026. Castro had a 1.53 ERA (3.09 FIP) with 27.4 K% and 11.6 BB% in 47 innings for Scranton this season. It was his first year back from Tommy John surgery. 

The Yankees selected Castro from the Astros in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft in 2023, a few months after elbow surgery. It was a long haul move. They knew Castro would spend 2024 rehabbing, so they took him with an eye on 2025 and beyond. Castro made his MLB debut with the Giants in 2021 and was on their postseason roster that year. Here are his 2025 Triple-A Statcast percentiles among age 25-28 pitchers. This is good stuff:

These days Castro works mostly with low-to-mid-90s four-seamers and cutters, and a mid-80s sweeper. He won’t help solve the bullpen’s velocity problem, but up/down guys usually don’t fix things like that anyway. De Los Santos gave the Yankees some good innings this year. At times great innings. Hopefully Castro can do the same in 2026.

The Rule 5 Draft protection deadline is Tuesday, Nov. 18th. Castro had to be added to the 40-man roster now to avoid minor league free agency. The Yankees activated their 60-day injured list guys this week (Oswaldo Cabrera, Gerrit Cole, Jake Cousins, Clarke Schmidt). After adding Castro, they’re sitting on five open 40-man spots with plenty of DFA-able players still on the roster (Braden Shewmake, Allan Winans, etc.).

2. Spring Training schedule announced. MLB finally got around to revealing the 2026 Spring Training schedule this week. Usually we get it in August. This year it was November for some reason. I’m sure we can blame this on the Rays, somehow. Here’s the spring schedule and here are some very quick notes:

Opening Day against the Giants is Wednesday, March 25th. The Yankees will go from Florida to Arizona to San Francisco in four days without an off-day. It’s really not a big deal though. The regulars won’t play all nine innings against the Cubs and they’ll get to San Francisco early enough to get a nice dinner. It’ll suck for the Triple-A bound players who make the trip to fill innings though. They have to go from Florida to Arizona to Buffalo, where the RailRiders open next season. Anyway, there’s the spring schedule.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. No surprise here: Aaron Judge is an AL MVP finalist. He’s up against Cal Raleigh and José Ramírez. The real mystery was whether Ramírez, Bobby Witt Jr., or someone else would be the third finalist. Would you believe this is only Judge’s fourth time being an MVP finalist (also 2017, 2022, 2024)? I would’ve guessed more, but he had injuries from 2018-20 and in 2023, and he finished fourth in the voting in 2021. Anyway, the MVPs will be announced next Thursday. No other Yankees are finalists for any of the BBWAA awards … I neglected to mention this in Monday’s post: Max Fried won the AL Gold Glove at pitcher. It’s his fourth career Gold Glove and he was the only Yankee up for a one unless you count Ryan McMahon, who was up in the NL (he lost to Ke’Bryan Hayes). So there you go. Congrats, Max … And finally, the Hall of Fame’s Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot came out earlier this week. This year’s committee will consider “players who made their greatest impact on the game since 1980,” and the ballot includes Don Mattingly, who stepped away from the Blue Jays this week. 12 votes from the 16-person committee are needed for induction. Mattingly got eight votes last time around and my pal Matt Snyder, who knows way more about the Hall of Fame than I do, thinks he has a shot to get in this year. Maybe not a great shot, but a shot. The voting results will be announced Sunday, Dec. 7th.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Bernard asks: Could you kindly dive into Shota Imanaga as an FA target for the Yankees? Instinctively, I’d have been very happy to get that guy for 3/57.

The Cubs declined their three-year, $57M club option for Imanaga and he then declined a one-year, $15M player option, so he’s a free agent. The Cubs are cheap more they are incompetent, and the money is so reasonable here that I think it was a baseball decision. They need rotation help and walking away from an affordable mid-rotation starter tells me they don’t think Imanaga is salvageable. He’s 32, he was terrible late this year, they gave him an opener in NLDS Game 2, and they didn’t trust him to be part of their Game 5 bullpen game despite being on normal rest. There are red flags all over the place (velocity, whiffs, etc.) and the Cubs moving on makes me think something’s not right, not lol Cubs.

Chicago made Imanaga the $22.025M qualifying offer, which they could safely assume he'll decline after passing on the $15M player option. He’ll obviously shoot for more. I can’t say I’m eager to sign a starter who is getting into his decline phase, barely scrapes 91 mph, and is very homer prone (1.64 HR/9 in MLB). This is bad news (vFA is average fastball velocity):

It’s one thing to live with this when you sign a guy long-term and get the great years up front (see: Sabathia, CC). It’s another to sign up for this right out of the gate. I just can’t do it. Imanaga is too home run prone and working with too little a margin of error for me to pay him what he likely wants/gets. I was a no on Imanaga when he came to MLB two years ago and I’m a no now, when he’s two years older and much more red flag-y. (I’d jump on him if I were the Giants with that ballpark.)

(Imanaga passing on a $15M player option and Shane Bieber picking up his $16M player option, which was a $12M decision because of a $4M buyout, is confusing, no? Seems like one of those guys misread the market. Either that or Bieber really loves Toronto, or his elbow is about to explode.)

Pete asks: With the lack of impact relievers and starters on the market do you see the Yanks pursuing Tatsuya Imai? Starter with good stuff that can help them return to the Japanese market. With so many Yankee pitchers coming back from injury they could employ a 6-man rotation as well to ease him into the MLB while managing everyone else's workload.

Imai, 27, is the Japanese player I can see the Yankees targeting this offseason. Munetaka Murakami has real contact/positional concerns, and Kazuma Okamoto and the Yankees don’t seem like a great fit for each other. Imai had a 1.92 ERA (2.01 FIP) with 27.8 K% in 163.2 innings for the Seibu Lions this year, which is consistent with his 2022-24 performance. The strikeout rate is great but don’t go crazy over the ERA. The NPB averages were a 19.6 K% and 3.04 ERA in 2025. NPB as a whole hit .246/.307/.352. It’s a league of Kyle Isbels (.255/.301/.353 in 2025). They’re in a dead ball era in Japan.

Imai is not Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who had all the markers of an ace (pitch data, command, eye test, etc.). He’s viewed as a mid-rotation type with the upside for more, though NPB teams have gotten really good at pitcher development, so I’m not sure how much more there is to get out of him. Eric Longenhagen has the most recent scouting report (here’s video):

Across the 2022-25 seasons, Imai halved his walk rate (from the 14% area to 7%), expanded his repertoire, and improved his fastball velocity even as his innings count grew north of 160 frames … And Imai might not be done improving. He has a loose, whippy sort of athleticism that helps him generate big, deceptive arm speed. He may be a tweak away from having better stuff than his already solid five-pitch mix. A nasty mid-80s slider with sharp two-planed movement performed like a plus pitch in 2025 and is the best of those offerings … You can quibble with Imai’s relative lack of size (he’s listed at 5-foot-11) or aspects of his delivery, but he certainly looks like a big league starter from a raw stuff and athleticism standpoint. He’s demonstrated MLB starter-quality stamina and strike-throwing for the last several seasons, and he could conceivably take another step forward if even one aspect of his delivery can be polished in his late 20s. The chaotic ingredients of an NPB-to-MLB transition (different baseball, routine changes, etc.) create more risk and variability in Imai’s forecast than that of the other tier-two free agent starting pitchers in this class, but Imai has a roughly similar ceiling as the Zac Gallen/Michael King group.

Imai now is two years older than Yamamoto was when he came over, and also two years younger than Shota Imanaga and Kodai Senga were when they came over. Splitting the difference on the Yamamoto and Imanaga/Senga contracts puts you in the 5-7 years at $18M to $20M per year range. The contract will surely include an opt out after Year 2 or 3 like Imanaga’s, Senga’s, and Yamamoto’s. That would give Imai a chance at a larger pay day in case he really pops in MLB.

There is something to be said for rostering a Japanese player and getting back into that market. You’re not gonna unseat the Dodgers as the team in Japan, Shohei Ohtani gives them generational influence*, but it can help you cultivate Japanese fans in the Tri-State area. There’s real value to be gained there. It shouldn't drive the decision to sign him, but it should factor into it. (Japanese players don’t all sign with the Dodgers. Imanaga, Senga, Seiya Suzuki, and Masataka Yoshida signed elsewhere. You just have to offer the most money.)

* The Japanese reporters I see at the ballpark say Ohtani is the most popular person in Japan, not just the most popular athlete.

Based on the little I know about Imai (what’s in this mailbag answer, basically), I’m in. These days $20M or so a year buys you a Yusei Kikuchi/Eduardo Rodriguez type in free agency. Imai has age on his side plus a good and deep arsenal, and there’s some off-the-field value too. Are the Yankees willing to go long-term and carry another $20M+ a year starter? Yeah, maybe. Starting pitching is the one thing they have been consistently willing to spend big on the last 15 years or so. Imai strikes me as a worthwhile target.

Colin asks: According to this MLB article, the D-Backs might be open to trading top prospects for starting pitching in particular. Is there a world where the Yankees and Diamondbacks might match up on a deal for Jordan Lawlar? He's right handed and can play all over the infield, seems like the perfect piece to replace Volpe. I'd guess Will Warren wouldn't be enough? Nor would ERC? What about together? Or would a Schlittler for Lawlar straight up make sense? How would you feel about any of those moves.

Lawlar has been said to be available for a good 12 months now. Talking to people smarter than me at the deadline, there are apparently a lot of Quad-A indicators in his game. Stuff way above my pay grade, like swing plane data that suggests his swing is too rigid to handle breaking balls. The belief is there’s a reason he’s run a 34.3 K% in MLB and a 22.6 K% in three seasons in Triple-A, and it’s not just that MLB is hard. There’s also a reason that, after Eugenio Suárez got traded, Blaze Alexander played third base, and Lawlar was on the bench. The D’Backs are willing to let their young players work through growing pains (Alek Thomas, most notably), but not Lawlar.

That doesn’t mean Lawlar, who is still only 23 and has lost a lot of time to injuries the last few years, is a lost cause. Just that there are things he has to improve. He’s not MLB-ready despite over 400 plate appearances in Triple-A and ranking as a top 15-ish prospect in the game three years running. I would not trade Cam Schlittler for Lawlar. I wouldn’t trade Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz for him at this point either. Will Warren is much easier to replace as a No. 4-5 starter, and there is a point where it makes sense to roll the dice on Lawlar’s raw talent (especially given the shortstop market), so I’d do a one-for-one trade there (I doubt the D'Backs would). Warren is about as high as I would go. Too many smart people I know are just out on Lawlar. 

Joshua asks: How likely is Tucker and how likely is Skubal? I feel like those automatically fix a huge portion of the team.

Kyle Tucker is much more likely than Tarik Skubal because we know with 100% certainty he’s available, and because the Yankees can just throw money at him. Matching up for a trade with the Tigers is much more difficult than adding to your contract offer.

To answer the question, I’ll go 2% for Skubal and 10% for Tucker. Both unlikely, just one more unlikely than the other. The fact of the matter is, if the Yankees sign Tucker, it’ll break a pattern of not spending on top free agent position players. Here are the last 10 free agent position players the Yankees have signed to a multi-year contract. These are guys who actually hit free agency and were on the open market (i.e. not Aaron Hicks’ extension):

The Yankees have spent lots on high-end pitching during that time and I appreciate it, and it has mostly been money well spent. Bottom line though, that’s one free agent position player signed away from another team on a multi-year deal in more than a decade. We’re in prove it territory. Want me to think you’ll be a major player for a top free agent bat? Prove it and sign one. The Yankees no longer get the benefit of the doubt when I hear the rumors.

Matching up for a Skubal trade could be difficult because you have to top whatever other packages teams put on the table, if he’s even available. The Yankees should be all over Tucker and he would solve a lot of problems for them. I’m just not comfortable saying they’ll do what it takes and actually land that plane, so 10% it is.

Kyle asks: With the news that the Yankees are picking up Tim Hill's option I was looking at his usage from this past season and saw that he almost faced an even split of lefty hitters (134) vs righty hitters (135). That seems like basically the extreme of what a team can achieve in terms of gaining platoon advantage for a lefty reliever. Since the 3 batter minimum rule went into effect have there been any lefty relievers that faced a reasonable amount of hitters over a season and actually faced more lefty hitters than righty hitters?

The three-batter minimum came into effect in 2020, though I’m going to ignore 2020 because nothing that happened that season counts. Since 2021, there have been 164 individual pitcher seasons in which a lefty reliever faced at least 200 total batters, including Hill in 2025. Only three of those 164 faced as many lefties as righties. Fewer than I would’ve guessed!

Here are the highest percentages of lefty batters faced among those 164 individual lefty reliever seasons (here’s my spreadsheet):

1. Tim Mayza, 2023: 53.5%
2. Tim Hill, 2021: 52.5%
3. Alex Young, 2023: 50.0%
4. Tim Hill, 2025: 49.8%
5. T.J. McFarland, 2024: 49.8%
…
Average of the 164 pitchers: 37.3%
…
164. Josh Hader, 2024: 19.4%

The bottom of that list is all Hader and Aroldis Chapman, the two lefty relievers who don’t get matched up at all. The takeaway here is your lefty specialist is going to get stuck facing righties, either pinch-hitters or just guys in the lineup. It’s unavoidable now, so your lefty better be really good against lefties to limit any potential damage. If you can get him in the 40% to 45% lefty batters range, you’re ahead of the curve.

Anonymous asks: YES broadcast changes. Who will do the play-by-play on games that Michael Kay is off?

Andrew Marchand, who reported John Flaherty and Jeff Nelson are out, says Ryan Ruocco will be Kay’s backup. Kay will do about 135 games and Ruocco about 15. The other 12 or so will be national broadcast exclusives, I imagine. Bob Lorenz has done Spring Training play-by-play. Is he third on the depth chart? They should let Meredith Marakovitz do a few games. I bet she’d be great. But yeah, it will still be Kay most of the time with Ruocco subbing in as his basketball duties allow now that John Flaherty won’t be around to fill in (Flaherty always seemed to draw West Coast play-by-play duty, no?).

Mikey asks: What are you watching and playing these days?

I’m planning to start The Lowdown this weekend because the reviews have been good. I recently finished Dark Winds, which was a solid 7/10. I watched The Pitt before that and loved it. That’s a 10/10 for me. Adolescence is another 10/10. Last offseason’s watch was Halt and Catch Fire and I thought it was really good, and at times great. Let’s go 8/10 on that. (I know a lot of these shows have been out for months or even years, but I’m late to everything.) My plan this offseason is to watch more movies, not just shows, and Weapons was really good. Video game-wise, I’m deep into Ghost of Yotei right now. Some friends peer pressured me into buying it on the release date last month, which I regret. I wish I’d waited until after I finished the Offseason Plan like I intended. Great gameplay with breathtaking scenery. That game makes it hard to stay away from the PS5. That’s the non-sports entertainment in my life right now. (I always miss the first few games of the NBA/NHL seasons because of the MLB postseason, but holy crap the Rangers stink, huh? They’re boring too, which is the worst kind of stink. At least the Knicks are good.)

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)


More Creators

Zetry

Zetry

 patreon
rakugakism

rakugakism

 fanbox
奈々澄

奈々澄

 fantia
SInNA

SInNA

 patreon
livelyworldexpansion

livelyworldexpansion

 patreon
TRNR

TRNR

 fanbox
Julli Macedo

Julli Macedo

 patreon
juggertha

juggertha

 gumroad
かさね

かさね

 fanbox
Estra

Estra

 gumroad
SilverDragon94

SilverDragon94

 patreon
hentaly

hentaly

 patreon
videajames

videajames

 patreon
カタコト@skeb募集中

カタコト@skeb募集中

 fanbox
aayymm

aayymm

 patreon
hajnarus

hajnarus

 patreon
it's devon!

it's devon!

 gumroad
koyuki

koyuki

 fantia
PigeonPleasure

PigeonPleasure

 patreon
视野环球财经

视野环球财经

 patreon
Morsylvia

Morsylvia

 patreon
Foekoe

Foekoe

 patreon
SheppiTSRodriguez

SheppiTSRodriguez

 patreon
Maggie329

Maggie329

 patreon
タマガワ

タマガワ

 patreon
doglike1928

doglike1928

 fanbox
蒼井あるま

蒼井あるま

 fanbox
theconnectshow

theconnectshow

 patreon
pzero

pzero

 patreon
dlobo777

dlobo777

 patreon
10K Hustle Hub

10K Hustle Hub

 gumroad
EmotionalWeight

EmotionalWeight

 patreon
Brianwilson

Brianwilson

patreon
OFFnsfw

OFFnsfw

 gumroad
focusedrelaxation

focusedrelaxation

 patreon
JustAFallingStar

JustAFallingStar

 patreon
incetonntr

incetonntr

 patreon
whiterice

whiterice

 patreon
ひと未満

ひと未満

 fanbox
SynaGraphics

SynaGraphics

 patreon