November 3rd, 2025: World Series, Bold Predictions, Cole

Shoutout to my brother for reminding me Hal Steinbrenner said “we’ll see if it pays off” when asked about the Dodgers and their spending back in January. Perhaps it’s best Hal only does interviews with YES these days. The Dodgers won the World Series last year, upped payroll, and won the World Series again this year. The Yankees lost the World Series last year, cut payroll, and lost in the ALDS this year. There's a lesson in there, Hal. Here now is Tuesday’s post on Monday. It just worked better for me this week to get it out there today. (If you missed it, here’s the 2025-26 Offseason Calendar. There are some deadlines coming up this week, so Friday’s post will have roster news/moves.)

1. Dodgers win the World Series. So who’s going to convince Anthony Volpe to change his name to Will Smith? Apparently that’s the secret to winning the World Series, having a Will Smith. Either Will Smith the catcher or Will Smith the lefty reliever has been on the last six World Series winners. Volpe has to take one for the team here. Will Smith the catcher and the Dodgers are again World Series champions, and are baseball’s first repeat champs since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

“We've put together something pretty special, I do know that,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after the Game 7 win. “I'm proud of the players for the fans, scouting, player development, all that stuff. To do what we've done in this span of time is pretty remarkable. I guess let the pundits and all the fans talk about if it's a dynasty or not, but I'm pretty happy with where we're at.”

There was a bit of a lull in the action from about the 11th inning of Game 3 through Game 5, but otherwise it was a wonderfully entertaining World Series, particularly Game 7. By Championship Probability Added, two of the five biggest and three of the 12 biggest plays in baseball history took place in Game 7, specifically in the ninth inning or later. Alejandro Kirk’s game-ending double play was the biggest non-hit in history.

The Dodgers spent years building a super team, and yet they still needed Miguel Rojas to hit his first home run off a right-handed pitcher* all year to tie Game 7 in the ninth inning. Jeff Hoffman hung a slider and he hung it in the only part of the strike zone where Rojas has some slug. Here’s the pitch location and Rojas’ 2025 xSLG heat map. Hoffman hung one in the only spot you can’t hang one to Rojas.

“I just think it just goes down to just trusting your players. It's nice when you can look down the roster and have 26 guys that you believe in and know that at some point in time their number's going to be called, and that's kind of what happened,” Roberts said about Rojas. “Miggy Ro, I talk about the game honors you, and right there the game honored him. He does things the right way and he deserved that moment.”

The postseason isn’t all randomness, but Miguel freaking Rojas hitting the big homer is about as random as it gets. Meanwhile, poor Isiah Kiner-Falefa received threats after the game for his lack of a secondary lead before getting forced out at home while representing the World Series winning run in the ninth. He was just doing what he was told though. The Blue Jays wanted him close to the bag to avoid a line drive double play (Daulton Varsho’s batted ball data doesn’t support this at all. He never hits line drives toward third base.) 

"(The coaches) told us to stay close to the base. They don't want us to get doubled off in that situation with a hard line drive,” IKF told Ben Nicholson-Smith. “Varsho hits the ball really, really hard. (Max Muncy’s) right there. I'm waiting for a back pick from Will Smith in that situation. I can't get doubled off right there so it's almost like a bases loaded. They wanted a smaller lead and a smaller secondary, so that's what I did. It was obviously a tough play. They got it done. The lead is small. In that situation, you can't get doubled off. I got the best secondary I could from that spot and it didn't work out."

IKF might’ve been safe had he run through home plate and not slid, but the Blue Jays didn’t blow a 3-0 lead in Game 7 and lose the World Series because of his baserunning. There’s a million little things that led up to that outcome. Hoffman hung a slider to Rojas. The Blue Jays had a runner on second with one or no outs three times in the last four innings, and couldn't score. Addison Barger got doubled off second base on a looper to shallow left to end Game 6. On and on we could go.

* Rojas hit a homer off a right-handed position player pitcher in June. The Game 7 homer was his first homer off an actual right-handed pitcher since Sept. 2024.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is that dude. Coming out of the bullpen in Game 7 (to get eight outs!) after starting Game 6 is legendary stuff. It gave me Randy Johnson in 2001 nightmares. Yamamoto finished with a 1.45 ERA (2.79 FIP) in 37.1 postseason innings, the most since Madison Bumgarner’s 52.2 innings in the 2014 postseason (lol). Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, and Blake Snell threw 68% of the Dodgers’ postseason innings. Their bullpen was shaky all year, so they 2019 Nationalsed it, and rode their starters to a World Series title. All four of those guys pitched in Game 7.

I thought the Blue Jays were the better team in the World Series and I can’t imagine I’m the only one who feels that way. It was pretty glaring at times too. The Dodgers looked old and not deep enough. It felt like the Blue Jays were in control of the series right up until the moment the Dodgers won it. There is more to life than offense, but look at the World Series numbers:

• Blue Jays: .269/.347/.398 (109 wRC+) with 34 runs

• Dodgers: .203/.294/.364 (81 wRC+) with 26 runs

Vlad Guerrero Jr. had a postseason for the ages: .397/.494/.796 (241 wRC+) with eight homers and seven strikeouts. Ernie Clement hit .411/.416/.562 (171 wRC+) and set a new single-postseason record with 30 hits. Trey Yesavage didn’t make his MLB debut until Sept. 15th and then pitched one of the greatest World Series games ever in Game 5. All that happened and the Blue Jays had a lead in the seventh inning or later in five of the seven World Series games. They were two outs away from their first championship in 32 years in Game 7. They couldn’t finish the job. What an agonizing loss. Relatively speaking, we got off easy in 2024.

There’s no need to dig into things and figure out What It All Means. The lesson to take from the Dodgers is to go get those best player in the game types when they become available (especially when you have resources like the Dodgers and Yankees). The lesson to take from the Blue Jays is you need both contact and power in your offense, and not to skew too far in either direction. It’s not that deep. Build the best team you can and be good at as many things as you can, and even then you have to hope Miguel Rojas puts that slider in the seats and doesn’t foul it off, or that a ball gets lodged in the outfield wall padding.

There aren’t too many Yankees ties to the 2025 Dodgers. Ben Rortvedt came over from the Rays at the trade deadline and was their backup catcher during the postseason. Anthony Banda, Yoendrys Gómez, Andrew Heaney, Lou Trivino, and Kirby Yates all pitched for the Dodgers this season after throwing some number of innings for the Yankees in the past. Matt Sauer and JP Feyereisen got into a few games for the Dodgers. They spent several years in the Yankees’ system. Bullpen coach Josh Bard was Aaron Boone’s bench coach from 2018-19. Bob Geren, Roberts’ longtime right-hand man in the dugout, played for the Yankees from 1988-91. That’s about it for Yankees/2025 Dodgers ties.

I feel bad for Don Mattingly, who finally reached the World Series this year after beginning his professional career as a minor leaguer in 1979. Word on the street was Mattingly, now 64, was going to retire had the Blue Jays won the title. I’m not sure what his plans are now. That is the extent of my sympathy. The Blue Jays mopped the floor with the Yankees this year and deserved the AL East title and to go to the World Series. They outplayed the Dodgers overall in the World Series, but the Dodgers made the bigger plays when they were needed. That’s usually how short series are decided in this sport.

2. Reviewing my bold predictions for 2025. Back before the season, as I’ve done every year since 2017, I made a bunch of bold predictions for the 2025 Yankees. Among the things I did not boldly predict but did actually happen are the Yankees hitting three home runs on the first three pitches of the game, Max Fried retroactively losing a no-hit bid, the Yankees hitting three home runs to start a game again, Jazz Chisholm Jr. literally running out of his shoes, everyone acquired at the trade deadline blowing their first game together, and the Yankees hitting nine homers in a game for the first time in franchise history (and then doing it again). It was certainly a year.

Last year I was told I wasn’t bold enough, so I tried to ratchet up the boldness this year. Did it work? Beats me. It’s easier said than done. I do try to get a few of these right, you know. Anyway, it’s about time we go back and review this year’s bold predictions, because what’s the point if we’re not going to circle back and see what happened? Here are my 10 bold predictions for the 2025 Yankees.

Aaron Judge will be intentionally walked with the bases loaded

Judge was intentionally walked 36 times this season, more than anyone in American League history and the 13th highest total in baseball history. He was not, however, intentionally walked with the bases loaded. In fact, he didn’t draw a single walk with the bases loaded all year. Judge had 15 plate appearances with the bags full and went 5-for-13 (.385) with a home run (this one) and two sacrifice flies. 

Not only did Judge not draw a walk with the bases loaded, he saw only two three-ball counts in those 15 plate appearances. 49.0% of the pitches Judge saw this season were in the strike zone compared to the 52.4% league average. With the bases loaded, Judge had a 50.9% zone rate, essentially identical to the 50.8% league average. Huh. Here are the pitches Judge saw with the bases loaded:

Judge wasn’t intentionally walked with the bases loaded because, first and foremost, it’s a bad strategy. As good as he is, Judge is still more likely to make an out than reach base (.457 OBP). There’s a reason there have been only eight intentional walks with the bases loaded in the entirety of baseball history. It’s just a bad idea to give away a free run given how often even the best hitters fail in this sport.

There’s another reason Judge wasn’t walked intentionally with the bases loaded: The opportunity never arose. You’re not gonna intentionally walk a guy to force in a run in a tie game or when you’re down and trying to keep it close. If you’re gonna do it, you’re gonna do it up multiple runs, when a grand slam can really hurt you but one run won’t. These were the game situations for Judge’s 15 bases loaded plate appearances:

• Yankees leading: 12 times

• Score tied: 3 times

• Yankees trailing: 0 times

Not once this season did Judge hit with the bases loaded and the Yankees trailing. That as much as anything explains why this bold prediction is a whiff. Judge never got a bases loaded intentional walk because there was never a reasonable opportunity to do so. So, I’m 0-for-1 out of the gate.

Austin Wells will have a .400 OBP leading off games

Remember the Austin Wells, Professional Leadoff Hitter era? It lasted two games, and not even two consecutive games. He started at leadoff on Opening Day and became a) the first catcher to ever hit leadoff for the Yankees, and b) the first player to hit a leadoff home run on Opening Day in franchise history. Third pitch of the season into the short porch (video). Validation!

"It was awesome. It was a really cool experience for myself not doing it ever," Wells said about hitting leadoff on Opening Day. "It was cool to hear the fans and just be the first batter of the season."

Paul Goldschmidt led off the next day because there was a lefty on the mound, and because he started the season so well, Goldschmidt stayed there for a bit, even against righties. Ben Rice got a few starts at leadoff early in the season as well. It wasn’t until April 20th that Trent Grisham hit leadoff for the first time. The next day, Wells made his second and final start at leadoff. Grisham took over as the full-time guy atop the lineup about a week later.

This prediction called for Wells to have a .400 OBP when leading off the game only. Not all of his at-bats while batting in the No. 1 lineup spot. In his first at-bat of the game specifically, so yeah, I nailed this one. Not the way I thought I would, but I did. Wells hit the leadoff homer on Opening Day and reached on an error to start that April 21st game, which does not count toward his OBP. Still, that’s a cool .500 OBP when leading off the game this season. I’m 1-for-2 with my bold predictions so far.

(Wells at leadoff is a good reminder that Spring Training is full of lies, especially when it comes to lineup decisions. Wells hit leadoff a bunch in the spring, mashed, and it seemed like he would stay there to start the season. Nope. He lost the job even after hitting a leadoff homer on Opening Day. Go figure.)

Jasson Domínguez will be a positive defender in left field

Spring Training is the time for optimism and I was optimistic El Marciano would improve in left field as the season went on, and finish the year as a positive defender. I covered my bases by saying I would claim victory as long as one of the four publicly available defensive metrics had Domínguez as a plus. I didn’t need all four to go in my favor. Well, here are the four:

• DRS: -7 (Defensive Runs Saved at FanGraphs)

• OAA: -10 (Outs Above Average via Statcast)

• UZR: not available yet (Ultimate Zone Rate at FanGraphs)

• DRP: -4.7 (Defensive Runs Prevented at Baseball Prospectus)

I’ll take the L and assume UZR will not rule in Domínguez’s favor (if it does wind up being positive, I’ll let you know). Domínguez did kinda sorta get better in left field as the season progressed. He was at -4 OAA in April alone, then -6 OAA over the final five months. That means he improved from very bad in April to just regular bad the rest of the season. Maybe next year, Jasson. I’m 1-for-3.

Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge will combine to hit more home runs at GMS Field than any one Ray

Remember that home run Judge hit in Tampa that was ruled foul when it appeared to go over the foul pole and land fair? This one? A pal who works for MLB and has access to the non-public Statcast stuff says it was indeed foul. It hooked foul a bit more than halfway up the line, but it looked fair because the camera was positioned up the first base line and not directly on line with the foul pole. Here’s the trajectory:

They don’t use this stuff to change calls on the field because the ball will occasionally fly out of Statcast’s radar field and leave you with no data or incorrect data. That usually happens on high fly balls, but it does happen on certain fair/foul balls too. The system isn’t ready to be used on replay just yet. They’re working on it, but more fine-tuning is needed. Judge’s foul ball was foul though. Alas.

Anyway, I thought Judge and Bellinger would bomb away in GMS Field and that a Rays lineup that lacked a proven power threat would not take advantage of the cozy dimensions. I was wrong about that last part. Junior Caminero hit 45 home runs this year, the second most for a player age 21 or younger. It wasn’t all homer happy GMS Field either. Caminero hit more home runs on the road than at home.

To even the playing field for this bold prediction, I said I would include Spring Training, which gave Judge and Bellinger a two-homer head start going into the regular season. Here is the GMS Field home run leaderboard in 2025:

1. Junior Caminero: 23 HR
2. Yandy Díaz: 18 HR
3. Brandon Lowe: 15 HR
4. Danny Jansen: 8 HR
5. Judge + Bellinger: 7 HR

So much for this prediction. Including Spring Training, the most homers by a non-Ray at GMS Field this year was six by Grisham (two in the spring, four in the regular season). Bellinger and Grisham would have been the optimal Yankees combo. Grisham had six homers at GMS Field and Bellinger had five (two in the spring, three in the regular season). Regardless, I’m now 1-for-4.

Two Yankees will steal 30 bases, and another will steal 20 bases

I was right in that the Yankees would steal more bases in 2025 than they have in a good long time. Their 138 steals were eighth most in baseball, their highest finish since 2014 (fifth). Those 138 steals were their most since 2011 (147) and their 172 stolen base attempts were their most since 2006 (174). The Yankees had more speed and athleticism on their roster this year and used it, especially in the second half.

This bold prediction did not come true but it wasn’t a huge miss. Here are the Yankees’ 2025 stolen base leaders:

1. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 31 SB
2. Jasson Domínguez: 23 SB
3. Anthony Volpe: 18 SB
4. José Caballero: 15 SB (as we all expected in March)
5. Cody Bellinger: 13 SB

Domínguez did not play much late in the season and he was platooned most of the season, and he didn’t even pinch-run much. He started 102 games and came off the bench 21 times for 123 total games. With more starts, Domínguez might’ve been able to get to 30 steals for the season. Volpe was only two away from 20 even with a bad success rate (18-for-26, 69%).

This bold prediction is a miss, so I’m 1-for-5, though I was at least in the neighborhood. Chisholm got to 30 steals even while missing a month (and dealing with a groin issue for another month) and Domínguez and Volpe were within striking distance of the 30 and 20 I needed. Maybe next year.

Aaron Judge will start a 9-3 putout

There was a 9-3 putout this year, though it did not involve the Yankees. Wilyer Abreu threw out Alejandro Kirk at first base to end the game on Sept. 24th, and not by a little either (video). As best I can tell, it was baseball’s first 9-3 putout since 2021. Juan Soto tried to throw DJ LeMahieu out at first on a single on July 5th, but LeMahieu beat it out (video). That was LeMahieu’s second-to-last hit as a Yankee.

Judge did not start a 9-3 putout this season and never once did it even seem like he was putting himself in position to attempt it. I paid extra attention after making the bold prediction and Judge played every single potential 9-3 ball hit his way routinely. Fielded the hop, lobbed it into the cutoff man. The flexor gave me a short window for this bold prediction too. Judge wasn’t gonna attempt that throw anytime after getting hurt on July 23rd. So it goes. I am now 1-for-6 and beginning to feel like I'm in a slump.

Max Fried will join the 25/60 club

That being the 25 K% and 60 GB% club. Set the minimum to 150 innings and it happened only once from 2002 (the first year of reliable batted ball data) to 2024: Tyson Ross had a 25.8 K% and 61.5 GB% with the 2015 Padres. Setting the minimum to 150 innings again, and only one pitcher had a 60 GB% in 2025. José Soriano had a 65.3 GB% (and 21.0 K%) with the Angels.

Fried had a great first season with the Yankees, pitching to a 2.86 ERA (3.07 FIP) with 23.6 K% and 52.4 GB% in 195.1 innings. The strikeout and ground ball rate are more or less in line with his career averages. It wound up being a typical Max Fried season, albeit with a new career high in starts and innings. Matt Blake said the Yankees had some ideas to “tighten the screws” on Fried’s arsenal, but it was the more or less the same Max Fried, and that’s fine. He was really good.

Now, Fried did have that ugly eight-start stretch in July and August, when he threw 41 innings with a 6.80 ERA (4.62 FIP). Those eight starts did not cost me my bold prediction, but they hurt my cause:

• First 17 starts: 24.5 K% and 53.1 GB%

• Next 8 starts: 19.3 K% and 44.4 GB%

• Final 7 starts: 26.1 K% and 59.7 GB%

It works out to a 25.0 K% and 54.3 GB% in the 24 starts outside the eight-start slump. Well short on the grounders but right there on the strikeouts. Alas. 60 GB% is a lofty rate. It’s been done only 37 times by a qualified starter out of 1,739 individual pitcher seasons since 2002. That was always more likely to derail this prediction than the strikeouts. I’m down to 1-for-7 and starting to press at the plate. 

The Yankees will set the single-season record for strikeouts on changeups and splitters

The Yankees are all-in on offspeed pitches. Carlos Rodón upped his changeup usage last year and Luke Weaver’s changeup was so good in 2024. The Yankees then added Mark Leiter Jr. and his splitter at last year’s trade deadline, and Devin Williams (Airbender) and Fernando Cruz (splitter) in the offseason. Several depth arms (Yerry De Los Santos, Allan Winans, etc.) are offspeed heavy too.

Not only did the Yankees not set a new single-season record for strikeouts on changeups and splitters this year, they didn’t even lead baseball. They were two behind the Tigers (and Tarik Skubal’s changeup) for the MLB lead. The Yankees did finish with a top 10 total though. Here are the most strikeouts on changeups and splitters since pitch-tracking began in 2008:

1. 2013 Rays: 410
2. 2012 Rays: 374
3. 2021 Angels: 365
4. 2023 Angels: 349
5. 2023 Blue Jays: 348
6. 2014 Rays: 343
7. 2025 Tigers: 337
8. 2025 Yankees: 335

This bold prediction was done in by Weaver and Williams not having the seasons we expected, Cruz missing more than two months with two different injuries, and Leiter getting hurt/stopping missing bats at midseason. Also, Cam Schlittler (didn’t throw a single changeup or splitter in MLB) effectively replaced Marcus Stroman (lots of splitters) in the rotation. That cost me a few strikeouts too.

For about three years now we’re been hearing splitters are the next big thing and it is happening, but very slowly. The league-wide splitter rate has gone from 1.6% in 2022 to 2.2% in 2023 to 3.1% in 2024 to 3.3% in 2025, so it has more than doubled in the last four years, but it’s still the least used non-knuckleball pitch in the game. The Yankees are all in on splitters and changeups though. They threw a ton of them this year and got a ton of strikeouts on them, just not enough to satisfy my bold prediction. I’m 1-for-8 and Michael Kay points it out every time I step to the plate.

Pitchers not currently on the 40-man roster will make 54 starts

The Yankees opened 2025 with three projected rotation members on the injured list: Gerrit Cole (elbow), Luis Gil (lat), and Clarke Schmidt (shoulder). It figured to be a revolving door at the back of the rotation at least early in the season, if not all season. I made this bold prediction even after Carlos Carrasco was officially added to the 40-man, so he doesn’t count toward my total.

Ryan Yarbrough does count though and boy, that one cut real close. The bold prediction post went live at 6am ET on March 24th. The Yankees announced they had signed Yarbrough a few hours later. The press release hit my inbox at 11:56am ET. It was not one of those “it was reported the Yankees would sign him a few days earlier” situations either. We found out the Yankees were signing Yarbrough when the beat reporters went into the clubhouse that morning, and he was there. Yarbrough counts for me.

Anyway, here are the 2025 starts leaders among players who weren’t on the 40-man roster as of 6am ET on March 24th:

1. Cam Schlittler: 14
2. Ryan Yarbrough: 8
3. Allan Winans: 1 (DFAed on Feb. 5th and added back to the 40-man in April 12th)

I can’t even cheat and use Luis Gil’s 60-day injured list stint to claim he wasn’t on the 40-man roster at the time of the post. Gil to the 60-day IL was the 40-man move to open a spot for Yarbrough. Not that it would have mattered. Gil made 11 starts and the three guys above made 23 starts, leaving me well short of my prediction. Even Carrasco’s six starts would’ve made no difference. (I went with 54 starts because it is exactly one-third of the season.)

This bold prediction was based on the assumption the Yankees would need starts from journeyman minor league contract types like Winans and Brandon Leibrandt, and that they’d also make a trade or two at the deadline. That didn’t happen. This is one of those bold predictions where it’s a good thing it didn’t happen. Even with the injuries, the Yankees didn’t have to dip that deep into the rotation depth. I am 1-for-9 with one more bold prediction to go.

Spencer Jones will make his MLB debut and lead the Yankees in home runs from that point on

The Yankees did not call up Jones this season but there was a very brief period where it appeared it might happen. Judge hurt his flexor on July 23rd and Jones was in the middle of a nuclear hot streak in Triple-A. He slugged three home runs on July 24th, giving him 13 homers in 19 Triple-A games and 19 home runs in his previous 32 games. July 24th was an off-day for the Yankees and much of it was spent debating the merits of calling up Jones.

It was for the best the Yankees left Jones in Triple-A. Following that three-homer game on July 24th, he slashed .219/.289/.383 (77 wRC+) with 41.7 K% the rest of the season, including 45 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances (55.6%) spanning Aug. 26th to Sept. 16th. As best I can tell, June 14th is the closest Jones came to leading the organization in home runs through the end of the season. Here are homers since June 14th:

1. Aaron Judge: 27 HR
2. Spencer Jones: 24 HR (Double-A and Triple-A)
3. Giancarlo Stanton: 24 HR
4. Jose Rojas: 22 HR (Triple-A)
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 22 HR

Shoutout Jose Rojas. The 32-year-old journeyman slashed .287/.379/.599 (153 wRC+) with 32 home runs for the RailRiders this summer. Anyway, Jones did not make his MLB debut and I can’t find a date where he led the organization in home runs from that point on, so I can’t even claim I was half-right about that part. I went 1-for-10 this year, my worst showing ever in the 10-bold prediction era. Gonna have to do better next year.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Gerrit Cole threw off a mound for what I believe is the first time this past weekend. He posted video on social media. The usual Tommy John surgery rehab progression is fastballs only at first, then breaking balls later. Three weeks ago Aaron Boone said Cole has a “deload” phase and a follow up visit with the surgeon coming up. I would consider getting Cole back in May or June a good outcome. If it’s July or August, then it’s July or August. So far so good though. Cole’s hit every rehab milestone without any hiccups (as far as we know).

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)