October 27th, 2025: Blue Jays, Phillies, Chisholm, Rotation

The World Series is tied 1-1 and each team has won the exact type of game they have to win. The Blue Jays wore down Blake Snell in Game 1 and battered the bullpen. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was magnificent in Game 2 and the Dodgers mustered enough offense. On paper, the Dodgers have significant starting pitching advantages in Games 3 and 4, though I feel like the Blue Jays have been on the wrong end of the pitching matchups all postseason, and it hasn’t mattered yet. Anyway, here is Tuesday’s post on Monday just because it’s easier for me to get this done and out the door on the off-day Sunday than it would be on the World Series game day Monday.

1. The Blue Jays have understandably and deservedly gotten a lot of attention and credit for their high contact offense this postseason. They led baseball with a 17.8 K% this year and that of course starts with rostering hitters with great bat-to-ball skills. Bo Bichette, Ernie Clement, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, and others have the innate ability to barrel up the baseball. You know what else limits strikeouts? Not getting into two-strike counts. Here are plate appearances with two-strike counts this season:

1. Angels: 55.9%
2. Orioles: 54.9%
3. Yankees: 54.4%
…
MLB average: 52.8%
…
30. Blue Jays: 48.7%

The Blue Jays also saw the fourth fewest pitches per plate appearance (3.77 vs. 3.87 MLB average) and had the second highest in-zone contact rate (87.1% vs. 85.4% MLB average). It’s an aggressive offense that is a bit old school in that they hunt fastballs early in the count. When it works, it looks unbeatable, and when it doesn’t, it’s a lot of quick outs and easy innings. Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw 23 pitches in the first inning of Game 2 and still went into the ninth inning with only 93 pitches. There’s more than one way to win and score runs in this game, and the Yankees had a great offense despite seeing the third highest rate of two-strike counts. I’m not really sure where I’m going with this. I don’t want the Yankees to turn into early count hackers because they don’t have the bat-to-ball guys to do it the way the Blue Jays do. I just think there will be a lot of attention paid to Toronto’s strikeout rate and not how they’re getting there. Contact skills, first and foremost, but also swinging early and avoiding two-strike counts. It works for them and it’s not something you can easily replicate.

2. One more thing on the Blue Jays: The lack of strikeouts is only part of the story. They hit for power too. They’re slugging .510 as a team this postseason and have 23 homers in 13 games. This isn’t the Brewers or Padres, who had low strikeout rates but also low power output in 2025. The Blue Jays had one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball last year, when they finished 23rd in runs. The difference this year is they added bat speed. Eno Sarris (subs. req’d) and Travis Sawchik both wrote about it recently. Largely the same group of hitters as 2024 is swinging with more intent in 2025, and getting better results without sacrificing contact. That sent me looking at the 2024 to 2025 bat speed increase leaderboard and you know what? There are a bunch of Yankees near the top:

1. Brice Turang: +4.5 mph (66.2 mph to 70.7 mph
2. Anthony Volpe: +3.3 mph (69.3 mph to 72.6 mph)
3. Josh Bell: +2.7 mph (70.4 mph to 73.1 mph)
…
9. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: +2.0 mph (71.9 mph to 73.9 mph)
…
15. Ryan McMahon: 1.5 mph (72.5 mph to 74.0 mph)
…
24. Cody Bellinger: +1.1 mph (69.0 mph to 70.1 mph)
…
27. Austin Wells: +1.0 mph (72.4 mph to 73.4 mph)

Five Yankees in the top 27, including four who started the season with the team (there’s three Blue Jays in the top 27). Chisholm had a career year and Bellinger had his best power season since 2019, though that surely had a lot to do with Yankee Stadium, not just more bat speed. Volpe and Wells were pretty bad though, which is a reminder more bat speed does not automatically equal better results. Volpe played through a torn labrum and, as much as Aaron Boone downplayed it during the summer, I really think it limited him at the plate (and in the field). Wells was undone by poor plate discipline. His walk rate decline (11.4% to 6.7%) was second largest in baseball and his chase rate increase (26.4% to 30.0%) was 16th largest among the 282 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances in both 2024 and 2025. Could it be that Wells was so focused on swinging harder that his discipline became unraveled? Sure, why not? I might have to dig into his bat speed by count and see what that says. Bat speed training has been a thing since before the Statcast data became public, though Toronto’s success leads me to believe we’re going to hear a lot more about it going forward. The Yankees already seem to be doing it. 

3. I have no idea where this started, but last week there were rumblings the Phillies could look to trade Bryce Harper this offseason, and those rumblings grew loud enough that POBO Dave Dombrowski had to address them. "I've been reading that, 'Oh, the Phillies may trade Bryce Harper.' That couldn't be further from the truth,” he said. I think not signing Harper is the biggest mistake the Yankees have made in the last 10 years, probably even much longer than that, but trading for him now wouldn’t make sense. You’ve missed those age 26-32 peak seasons and would be taking on all decline years, though Harper’s skill set (power and plate discipline) tends to age well. Harper’s not going anywhere, but even if there was validity to this trade speculation, it would have to be a no, as tempting as it would be. The Phillies seem determined to change something after another disappointing postseason though. The problem is there are only so many movable parts on the roster. Harper, Aaron Nola, and Trea Turner have long-term deals and no-trade clauses, and trading someone like Brandon Marsh and/or Bryson Stott moves the needle only so much. I wonder about Alec Bohm, who’s a year away from free agency, has been in trade rumors the last two offseasons, and would complement Ryan McMahon and Ben Rice on the infield corners. Bohm has turned himself into an average-ish defender at third (McMahon could always replace him for defense) and he’s played plenty of first base. There are 324 starts available between first and third. Bohm, McMahon, and Rice could get 100 each, easy, plus you know there will be injuries. Bohm's a year away from free agency and his projected $10.3M salary is pricey for the role, though the Yankees just paid Paul Goldschmidt $12M to be a lesser version of that player, so I don’t think salary would be a dealbreaker. Bohm’s .280/.330/.433 (108 wRC+) slash line the last three years is split into .295/.340/.514 (130 wRC+) vs. LHP and .274/.326/.401 (99 wRC+) vs. RHP. That’s a good everyday player and a fierce role player if you get him in there against every lefty and limit him to, say, 50% starts against righties. The Phillies are gonna do something this offseason and Bohm is among their most tradeable players, and it’s not hard to see how he could help the Yankees in 2026.

4. Center field is the biggest positional need this offseason because the Yankees literally do not have a center fielder. One outside-the-box solution: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Note: I am not endorsing this. I’m merely pointing it out as an option available to the Yankees. Chisholm played over 1,600 innings in center with the Marlins (he played his first game as a Yankee in center) and was all for it. He wasn’t thrilled about moving to third base this year, seemingly because the Yankees told him he would only play second last offseason, but he did it when his team needed him to do it. Tell him at the outset of the offseason that you need him to play center field next year rather than, you know, spring it on him in-season, and I’m sure Jazz would do it, even if he doesn’t want to and pouts a little bit. Depending which stat you ask, Chisholm was either very bad in center (-13 DRS) or adequate (+4 OAA). He has the speed for it, clearly. I assume his reads and routes were poor given the inexperience. Center field is a weak position league-wide right now and there’s not much out there in free agency behind Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham (and Harrison Bader), and the best you’re gonna do in the trade market is Luis Robert Jr. or Alek Thomas, probably. Perhaps putting Chisholm in center and trading for, say, Brendan Donovan or Brandon Lowe is the best way to improve the Yankees. Or Ketel Marte, if the Diamondbacks consider moving him. (Or re-signing Gleyber Torres! Imagine?). Jasson Domínguez in left, Chisholm in center, and 34-year-old Aaron Judge would probably rank among the worst defensive outfields in the league, so I can’t say I expect the Yankees to consider this, but it’s not that farfetched. We’re talking about moving a player back to a position he played for 1.5 seasons in the not-too-distant past. I’ve had crazier ideas (so have the Yankees, for that matter).

5. I’m not in favor of a full-time six-man rotation, but I am in favor of giving the five starters more rest than the Yankees did this season. The Yankees made 70 starts on normal rest (43%), third most in baseball behind the Giants (73) and Royals (72). Only one other team was over 60. League-wide, 32% of starts were made on normal four days’ rest this season. Extra rest is the new normal rest. The Yankees stuck with their five starters and very rarely used a spot sixth starter, and that was at least in part due to a lack of options with all the injuries. The current rotation depth chart going into 2026:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole (could return from Tommy John surgery at midseason)
2. LHP Max Fried (career high 204.2 innings in 2025
3. LHP Carlos Rodón (career high 203.2 innings in 2025, will start 2026 late after elbow surgery)
4. RHP Cam Schlittler (career high 164 innings in 2025)
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt (will miss most of 2026 following elbow surgery)
6. RHP Luis Gil (missed four months with a lat strain in 2025)
7. RHP Will Warren (career high 167 innings in 2025)
8. RHP Brendan Beck? (career high 131.1 innings in 2025)
9. RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz? (career high 150 innings in 2025)

I was planning to use Yoshinobu Yamamoto as an example even before his Game 2 gem. He made 30 starts during the regular season and pitched well enough to get Cy Young votes, and he’s made four starts this postseason with two (!) complete games. Even with all that, he’s still thrown fewer innings this year (202.1) than Fried (204.2) and Rodón (203.2). Yamamoto did not make a single start on normal rest during the regular season because the Dodgers play the long game, and that’s what I’m getting at here. It’s at least possible Fried and Rodón, two 30-somethings, were worn down come the postseason, plus Cole and Rodón would benefit from extra rest when they return (Rodón had loose bodies taken out of his elbow, which isn’t a big deal, but it will delay his start to 2026), ditto Gil and the young pitchers. The Astros, Brewers, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, and Tigers used six-man rotations at times this year. It wasn’t all the way from Game 1 through Game 162, but they did it for weeks at a time, and those are pretty smart teams. I get you don’t want to take starts away from Fried and Schlittler. That could cost you a division! If you can make it work though, I think it’s worth it. Winning the World Series requires pitching through the end of October and long-term planning. Cutting back on innings in June, July, and August has become part of that planning elsewhere around the league.

6. Last week I wrote about the upcoming lockout and its possible effect on this year’s offseason, and one thing I hadn’t considered at the time – it didn’t even cross my mind – is that many (most?) players will not want to become free agents ahead of the work stoppage next winter. Players make a lot of money, sure, but they’re like everyone else in that they don’t want to worry about their job security. I wonder if that will factor into, say, Trent Grisham’s qualifying offer decision, assuming he has one to make. I don’t think Grisham will beat $22.025M annually with his next deal, but he should be able to fetch more money over multiple years. Taking the $22.025M qualifying offer and then giving free agency a go next winter might be the way to maximize earnings, but do you really want to be a free agent in a lockout offseason with the uncertainty about what 2027 will bring? A salary cap would surprise me, but a change to the revenue sharing system or a only small jump in luxury tax thresholds could limit how much teams will spend moving forward. If you’re a non-elite free agent like Grisham, taking less in 2026 to lock in multiple years and more total dollars could be the move. I reckon a lot of players are nervous about how much money will be available for them in a year. In the end, players can only sign the contracts they’re offered, and teams always try to squeeze players into short-term deals. Multi-year contracts could be a market inefficiency this winter. Hmmm.

7. I am fascinated by the Giants’ decision to hire University of Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello as their new manager. Vitello took over Tennessee in 2018 and transformed the program, leading the Volunteers to one of the greatest seasons in college baseball history in 2022 (57-9 with a +421 run differential) and their first College World Series championship in 2024. He has zero experience in professional baseball though. He never played or coached professionally. It’s an unprecedented move. Teams hire college coaches for minor league and player development roles all the time, but going straight from a college dugout to a big league managerial job had never happened until Vitello. Coaching college kids, the majority of whom will never play professional baseball (let alone MLB baseball), is much different than coaching big leaguers. I have no idea how I would feel about the Yankees making such a hire. Excited, at least a little bit, but also nervous as hell. POBO Buster Posey is bulletproof in that organization. I’m not sure another young POBO with one year on the job would have the guts (or the latitude) to hire Vitello. Credit to Posey for being bold. I know I won’t be the only one watching intently to see how this plays out.

8. Gonna close with some notes. One, hitting coach James Rowson is one of four finalists for the Twins’ managerial job, reports Dan Hayes (subs. req’d). They’re said to prefer someone they’re familiar with, making Rowson (Twins hitting coach from 2018-19) and former Pirates manager Derek Shelton (Twins bench coach from 2018-19) the favorites. The Pohlad family has been slashing money every which way the last few years. Rowson will presumably come cheaper than Shelton because he would be a first-time manager, so maybe he’s the guy? Either way, we should find out pretty soon if the Yankees need a new hitting coach. Two, Rob Manfred told Ron Blum that the Rays will indeed return to Tropicana Field early next season. “We’re hopeful that it will be ready for the opening home set. It’s certainly going to be open very early in the year,” he said. The Rays open next season with a nine-game, 11-day road trip. Their home opener is scheduled for Monday, April 6th. Marc Topkin says two-thirds of the new roof panels are up at the Trop (they then need to repair a bunch of stuff inside). Sounds like the Yankees and Low-A Tampa will get George M. Steinbrenner Field back next season. Amazingly, the Rays did not have a single home game postponed by rain this year. They had a lot of rain delays, but no postponements. Huh. And three, Manfred told Bill Shaikin things are trending toward MLB players participating in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. Everyone is on board (owners, players, etc.) and it’s just a matter of figuring out the logistics. One possible plan includes pausing the season for a week in July, playing a condensed Olympic schedule, and playing the All-Star Game in San Francisco so many players are already on the West Coast. 40-man roster players have never been allowed to participate in the Olympics (KBO and NPB pause their seasons and send their best players). Team USA’s roster in 2021 was mostly Quad-A journeymen types with a few top prospects and unsigned veteran free agents. As cool as the World Baseball Classic is, it doesn’t match the marketing and moneymaking potential of the Olympics. I bet this gets done and big leaguers play in the 2028 Olympics. They’ll do what they have to do to the MLB season to make it work.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for if/when it returns.)