October 13th, 2025: Arbitration Projections, Bellinger, Weaver, Murakami, 2026 Draft

It has been five days since the Yankees lost the ALDS and they haven’t signed Kyle Tucker or traded for Tarik Skubal yet. Are they even trying? Here's an update on the usual offseason projects:

• Offseason Calendar (last year’s): Honestly, I do this for myself as much as anything. It helps me keep my ducks in a row and it’s nice to have everything in one place. This will go live the morning after the World Series ends.

• Offseason Plan (last year’s): This is a few weeks away because a) it’s a long haul project, and b) I need to see contract option and qualifying offer decisions around the league. The second week of November is my target, but I can’t make any promises.

• Minor League Awards (last year’s): A lower priority item but one I enjoy putting together. The Offseason Plan is the priority the next few weeks. I’ll get to the Minor League Awards when I get to it.

The Yankees have not yet announced when they will hold their end-of-season press conference. It could be as soon as tomorrow, it could be in two weeks. I dunno. Whenever it is, it will be the usual song and dance. The most important news figures to be whether Aaron Judge (flexor) and/or Anthony Volpe (shoulder) needs surgery.

Here is Tuesday’s post on Monday. It will be a busy day for me on the CBS side with two LCS games, plus I’m having laptop issues I need to get fixed. The charger port is loose (I think) and feels like it will fully give out any day now, and I’m not tech savvy enough to replace it myself. I’m running this post now so I have one less thing to worry about today. Let’s get to it.

1. 2025 arbitration projections. Last week Matt Swartz and the MLBTR crew published their annual arbitration salary projections. As long as it’s not a weird 60-game pandemic season, Swartz's model has proven to be quite accurate over the years. At minimum, the projections give us a good ballpark figure for payroll estimation purposes.

The Yankees have a 14-player arbitration class this offseason, fourth largest behind the Astros (16), Royals (16), and Rays (17). Not all 14 will make it to Spring Training. Some guys will get non-tendered or released or traded over in the coming weeks. It’s inevitable. Let’s go through the salary projections and see what’s what, then see where next year's payroll sits.

Definitely won’t get non-tendered

• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: $10.2M (third time eligible) ($5.85M in 2025)

• David Bednar: $9M (third time eligible) ($5.9M in 2025)

• Camilo Doval: $6.6M (second time eligible) ($4.525M in 2025)

• Anthony Volpe: $3.9M (first time eligible) ($879,100 in 2025)

• Luis Gil: $2.1M (first time eligible) ($804,125 in 2025)

• José Caballero: $1.9M (first time eligible) ($776,800 in 2025)

• Fernando Cruz: $1.3M (first time eligible) ($785,000 in 2025)

• Jake Bird: $1M (first time eligible) ($770,000 in 2025)

Volpe’s “aw shucks he’s just a young guy learning his way” act is easier to tolerate when he’s making the league minimum. When he’s making close to $4M, is he worth the money and roster spot? Not that I think the Yankees will non-tender or trade him. He’s an organizational favorite. The Yankees would sooner make Volpe an honorary Steinbrenner than cut him loose. $3.9M though? Yeesh.

Everyone else here is worth the money. Even if the Yankees decide to move on from some of these guys, you tender them and trade them, not just cut them loose. Doval has 108 career saves and he went to an All-Star Game with the Giants, so he’s a bit pricey for his role. He’s making closer money in arbitration. The Yankees can afford it though. They knew the deal when they traded for him at the deadline.

Probably won’t get non-tendered

• Clarke Schmidt: $4.9M (third time eligible as Super Two) ($3.6M in 2025)

• Oswaldo Cabrera: $1.2M (first time eligible) ($825,600 in 2025)

Schmidt had the internal brace procedure, not Tommy John surgery, in mid-July. Even with the shorter rehab, he’s looking at an August or September return at best next year. Schmidt will still be under team control in 2027. No team wants to pay $5M-ish for a rehab year, but that’s pitching. I think Schmidt’s safe as long as he didn’t have a setback we don’t know about it. 

The loudest cheers during postseason pregame introductions were 1) Aaron Judge by a mile, 2) Gerrit Cole, then 3) Cabrera by a hair over Giancarlo Stanton. The people love Waldo, who is far into his ankle surgery rehab. I saw him taking ground balls during the postseason and he might be taking swings too (he didn’t hit on the field).

Caballero and Cabrera are a bit redundant as utility guys and Caballero is the better player. There’s a chance the Yankees let Cabrera go rather than pay seven figures for what amounts to a backup for their backup player. The Yankees are short on position player depth though. They stashed Miguel Andujar in Triple-A when he was making seven figures. They can do the same with Cabrera. I think he’ll get tendered, but the chances he gets non-tendered are not 0%. 

Non-tender candidates

• Mark Leiter Jr.: $3M (third time eligible) ($2.05M in 2025)

• Ian Hamilton: $941,000 (first time eligible) ($941,050 in 2025)

• Jake Cousins: $841,000 (first time eligible) ($841,050 in 2025)

• Scott Effross: $800,000 (first time eligible) ($800,000 in 2025)

Leiter’s peripherals outpaced his ERA the first half of the season, then he just stopped missing bats. 15 strikeouts in his last 105 batters faced, or 14.3%. That goes back before the knee injury too. It’s not like he got hurt and wasn’t the same after coming back. The slide started before the injury. Leiter couldn’t beat out Paul Blackburn for an ALDS roster spot and he’s out of options. I think we can all agree the Yankees need to upgrade the bullpen. You can’t do that without moving on from the guys you already have.

The other three guys are listed here for 40-man roster management purposes, not salary purposes. Cousins had Tommy John surgery in mid-June and that will wipe out most or all of his 2026. It’s hard to carry someone like him, a 31-year-old journeyman middle reliever who won’t be available most of next season, on the 40-man all winter. If there was a 60-day IL in the offseason (there should be), then sure, keep Cousins. There isn’t though. Cheap salary, but unavailable player.

Hamilton is out of options now and his excellent 2023 is far back in the rear-view mirror. He wasn’t good after getting demoted to Triple-A (6.00 ERA and 4.00 FIP), he no longer does anything at an above-average rate (strikeouts, grounders, etc.), and he’s good for an IL stint or two each year. Players like this, the middle reliever who had a good season a few years ago and has an interesting pitch, get non-tendered every offseason. If Hamilton had an option, then keep him, but he doesn’t. 

(Cousins and Hamilton aren’t projected for pay cuts. MLBTR projects salaries in increments of $1,000. They’re projected for the same salary in 2026 as 2025, basically. Not a pay cut.)

Unlike Hamilton, Effross has an option left for 2026. He just hasn’t looked like an MLB caliber pitcher at any point since his Tommy John and back surgeries. Even in Triple-A this season he had a 17.5 K% and 8.4% swinging strike rate. Effross might be closer to being out of baseball than an effective big leaguer at this point. The Yankees could keep him as a cheap up/down depth guy, I suppose. But if they need 40-man space this winter (they always do), the Effross experiment may be over.

The Yankees have a few non-tender candidates who aren’t arbitration-eligible yet. Jorbit Vivas is out of options and could get non-tendered. Non-tender him to get him off the 40-man without exposing him to waivers, then try to re-sign him to a new minor league deal. That kinda thing. Braden Shewmake and Allen Winans are in the same boat. Michael Arias, a Double-A reliever who has an option left, had a 15.6 BB% in Somerset. Leiter’s the big one. Cousins, Hamilton, et al are 40-man management decisions, not salary decisions.

2026 payroll estimate

Now that we have arbitration projections, we can estimate the 2026 payroll situation. We have to make a few assumptions first. I’m going to assume Cody Bellinger ($25M player option) and Jonathan Loáisiga ($5M club option) are gone and Tim Hill ($3M club option) will return, and Leiter will get non-tendered. Reasonable enough? We don’t need to be precise. We’re just ballparking it.

Here is what the Yankees have on the books next season using the arb projections and those assumptions (these are luxury tax hits, not actual salaries):

• Guaranteed contracts (7 players): $170.65M

• Arb-eligibles (13 players): $44.683M

• Pre-arb eligibles (9 players to fill out 26-man roster): $8M (estimated)

• 40-man players in minors: $3M (estimated)

• Dead money: $15M (DJ LeMahieu)

• Miscellaneous: $19.7M (pre-arb bonus pool, benefits package, etc.)

We’ve got one injured player on a guaranteed contract (Cole) and two up for arbitration (Cousins and Schmidt), so we need nine pre-arb players to fill out the 26-man Opening Day roster, not six. That all adds up to $261.033M. Let’s call it $261M flat to make life easy.

The luxury tax threshold will be $244M next year. Realistically, getting under that is not doable. You’d have to trade Chisholm and Bednar, replace them on the cheap, and even then the Yankees would be cutting it very close to $244M. And that’s without upgrading any other parts of the roster. A luxury tax reset won’t happen in 2026. Could the Yankees avoid the draft pick penalty though? That kicks in at $288M. Hmmm. Maybe. (Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t care about the 2027 first rounder moving back 10 spots. He wants to pay less tax.)

Our 2026 payroll estimate comes out to $261M. That $261M buys you this roster using only players currently on the 40-man roster. Yellow is a guaranteed contract, green is arb-eligible, white is pre-arb. This is the roster the Yankees will begin the offseason with:

The Yankees need a center fielder, most of a bench, most of a bullpen, and I would like another starter. I doubt shortstop will be a priority this offseason, but the Yankees could make an upgrade there, at least in theory. In practice, it may not be so easy. The bench has to make sense too. They need a legit backup center fielder and a righty bat who can play the infield corners. A righty backup catcher would be wise too. The two lefty hitting catchers thing was so clunky.

There are a few prospects who have to go on the 40-man roster this winter and could factor into next year’s plan, namely Spencer Jones and Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz. I really do not want to pencil Jones in as the starting center fielder next year. I don’t think the Yankees will do it, so I’m not really worried they’ll go that way, though I’ve already seen some folks speculate it could happen. That’s a hard pass for me. 

Anyway, that’s the roster as it sits right now, before the postseason ends and the offseason begins. The Yankees would have a lot more on their to-do list had they not brought in Bednar, Caballero, Doval, and McMahon and their multiple years of contractual/team control at the deadline. Imagine needing a third baseman and even more bullpen help on top of everything else? How much money the Yankees have to spend, we do not know. There haven’t been any rumblings or reporting on that yet. Whatever the number is, it will be lower than it should be.

2. Super early hot stove notes. Plus some late trade deadline talk: Andy Martino says the Yankees and Mets discussed a Trent Grisham for Brett Baty trade at the deadline. That didn’t go anywhere, so the Yankees pivoted to Ryan McMahon and the Mets pivoted to Cedric Mullins. Also, the Yankees pursued rental relievers Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers before getting controllable relievers David Bednar and Camilo Doval. Rogers was great for the Mets. Helsley was a disaster. Now here is some very early hot stove (and coaching staff) chatter.

Bellinger will decline player option

Not surprisingly, Cody Bellinger will decline his 2026 player option and go into free agency, reports Bryan Hoch. It won’t happen until after the World Series, when the offseason officially begins, but it’ll happen. It’s a $25M salary with a $5M buyout, so it’s a $20M decision for Bellinger. The Cubs will pay $2.5M either way as a condition of the trade. What a heist that was, eh?

"Yeah, absolutely," Bellinger said after Game 4 when asked if he’s open to returning to the Yankees (video). "I had an unbelievable time putting on this uniform. Yankee Stadium, the fans, the organization, the culture that these guys have created in this locker room. It really is special."

I do think Bellinger was being sincere and did love his time with the Yankees, and is open to returning. He is also a Scott Boras client, and those guys tend to take the largest offer. Bellinger was unable to get a big long-term contract last time he was a free agent, hence this one-year deal with two player options. He’s 30 now. This might be his last chance at a long-term deal. It’s time to cash in, right?

Bellinger, 30, was such a perfect fit this season. The .272/.338/.480 (125 wRC+) slash line was very good and he was one of four players with 25 homers and a sub-15.0 K%:

• José Ramírez: 30 HR and 11.0 K%

• Cody Bellinger: 29 HR and 13.7 K%

• Ketel Marte: 28 HR and 14.9 K%

• Yandy Díaz: 25 HR and 14.1 K%

You think Yandy liked hitting at George M. Steinbrenner Field? The 25 homers are a career high. He hit 18 at home and seven on the road. Anyway, Bellinger gives you a very good blend of contact and power, plus the secondary skills are strong. He went 13-for-15 (87%) stealing bases and was +0.8 runs on the bases overall, and was +12 DRS and +8 OAA in the outfield while playing at least 300 innings in all three spots. And he filled in some at first base. The +4.9 WAR player did a lot of things well. News at 11.

Bellinger was awesome and I greatly enjoyed watching him. There are definitely some DJ LeMahieu vibes here though. That guy who seems irreplaceable and fits so well because he is a contact/power bat and a versatile defender. Who wouldn’t want to bring him back? And then a year or two later the defense slips, the extra-base ability’s not at the same level, and you’re wondering if the contract had to be as long as it is. Long-term deals for non-elite free agents whose age starts with a 3 are ripe for regret.

At the same time, who is playing center field next year? The free agent market behind Bellinger and Grisham stinks, and the top trade options are, uh, Luis Robert Jr. and Alek Thomas? Should the Yankees just live with the bad years on the back end of Bellinger’s contract to get the productive years upfront? It’s something to consider, for sure. For me, Bellinger falls firmly into the “would happily take him back at the right price” camp, not the “do whatever it takes” camp. There is definitely a point where you walk away.

(The Mets will probably go after Bellinger, no? They need a center fielder, and once top prospect Carson Benge comes up, Bellinger can shift to a corner, where the Mets are have two borderline DHs in Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo. Bellinger ain’t Soto. I’m not getting into a heated bidding war with Steve Cohen for Bellinger.)

Weaver open to starting

Alternate headline: Player open to role that will pay him more money. A few weeks ago Luke Weaver told Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman he is open to returning to a starting role, though it doesn’t sound like his heart is set on it. He’ll see what teams say and where the interest lies (and where the most money can be made). Here’s what Weaver said about possibly moving back into the rotation (via MLBTR):

“The door is open. I am never just going to say, ’Absolutely not.’ When the time comes, let’s talk about it. Clay (Holmes) has done a great job this year in that transition. I don’t know what people are saying, but I’ve watched from afar, and I’m proud of him. That’s a really cool thing that he’s done. The transition, I don’t think people truly understand, that’s crazy. To do it as consistent as he has, I commend him. It’s cool to see that it’s possible, too. We see it happening from time to time now. Teams are being a little more strategic. So, yes, I’m very much open to it, but I also am not just like, ’Yeah I want to go do that,’ or, ’Yeah I want to go do this.’ Let’s sit at the table. Let’s have a conversation and see what that looks like and what best (puts me in position) to be the most successful. I would like to have those options if they are there.”

Weaver falls somewhere between Chad Green and Mike King on the "reliever who could make it as a starter" spectrum. King had all the tools. It was clear transitioning to the rotation was at least worth a try. Green was a one-pitch guy who was unable to add a reliable second pitch. He tried a splitter, a slider, a curveball, he tried everything. It was pretty clear Green wasn’t a good candidate to start.

Weaver has a good fastball/changeup combo, so he’s already ahead of Green, though he’s never figured out a breaking ball. He’s been trying to come up with an effective curveball/slider since he was at Florida State, and, frankly, if you can’t come up with a breaking ball with pitch design being what it is these days, you’re probably never gonna have one. Weaver’s a fastball/changeup guy with the occasional cutter.

Now 32, Weaver was part of the problem with the bullpen this season more than he was a solution. He was so good and indispensable in 2024, and then by the end of the ALDS in 2025, he was so far out of the Circle of Trust™ that he never even warmed up in Games 3 and 4. In the season’s biggest moments, the Yankees preferred to push Bednar and Devin Williams for multiple innings.

The Yankees paid Weaver $4.5M total the last two years and he far, far outperformed that in 2024 alone. I think the Yankees should say thanks Luke, it’s been real, and move on. Take the win and let some other team pay Weaver in hopes he can start or return to high leverage duty. There’s always a price where it makes sense. My guess is whatever Weaver gets this winter will extend beyond that point for me.

Murakami will be posted

As expected, the Yakult Swallows will post slugger Munetaka Murakami this offseason, according to Mark Feinsand. He signed a three-year contract three years ago with the intention of coming over after turning 25, and now he’s 25. That means Murakami can sign a contract of any size, like Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He will not be subject to the intentional bonus pools. His free agency is unrestricted.

In 2022, Murakami had one of the greatest seasons in NPB history, hitting .318/.458/.710 (225 wRC+) with 56 home runs in 141 games. Those 56 homers are the NPB record for a Japanese-born player. His performance slipped in 2023 and 2024 (slipped as in excellent rather than otherworldly), and it bounced back this year around a significant oblique injury. The numbers:

The K% and swinging strike rate columns are what worry people. NPB has not had the same strikeout creep as MLB. The NPB average was 19.5 K% this season. Murakami is way above that, and has been for three years now. There have long been questions about his ability to handle top shelf velocity as well. He looked overmatched at times against MLB caliber arms in the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

“The strikeout and walk numbers may scare some teams away,” one MLB team executive told Feinsand. “He has big power, but there appear to be a lot of holes in that swing.”

Also, Murakami is not expected to stay at third base long-term even though the Swallows have played him there consistently throughout his career. (He’s played a little first base and left field too.) The upside is a 40-homer left-handed threat who outhits any positional shortcomings. The downside is a 30+ K% DH who only hits mistakes and can be neutralized with velocity. How much do you wanna bet on that guy?

Whichever team signs Murakami will owe the Swallows a posting fee. Here is the posting fee structure:

• First $25M: 20%

• $25M to $50M: 17.5%

• $50M or more: 15%

The posting fee for a $100M contract would be $16.875M. That’s broken down into $5M for the first $25M, $4.375M for the next $25M, and $7.5M for the last $50M. The posting fee doesn’t count against the luxury tax, but it is definitely something teams factor into the total cost. If they value Murakami at, say, $150M, that’s $150M all-in, salary plus posting fee.

Murakami is worth a deeper dive in the offseason. The Yankees are set at first (Ben Rice) and third (McMahon) bases, and at DH (Giancarlo Stanton). I'm not sure what their level of interest will be. At the same time, Murakami is only 25, and everyone agrees he has enormous, game-changing power. It will be a while until the next high-end 25-year-old becomes available for nothing but money. I am intrigued. Not to the level of Yamamoto, where I absolutely wanted him, but I am intrigued.

(Several other Japanese players could come to MLB this offseason, including Seibu Lions righty Tatsuya Imai, Yomiuri Giants first/third baseman Kazuma Okamoto, Rakuten Golden Eagles closer Takahiro Norimoto, and Hanshin Tigers ace Hiroto Saiki. Imai is the best of the bunch there. He’s 27 with a mid-90s fastball, a splitter, slider, and curveball. Imai is seen as a Shota Imanaga solid mid-rotation type more than a Yamamoto ace type.)

Blake, Swanson have club options

It has been almost a week since the Yankees were eliminated, and Aaron Boone is still the manager and Brian Cashman is still the GM. If they were going to make a change at one or both posts, it likely would have happened already. Those are major decisions and you want as long a runway as possible to hire replacements before the offseason begins. So, Boone and Cashman remain. What a surprise.

Boone’s coaching staff is another matter. Gary Phillips reports pitching coach Matt Blake and director of catching Tanner Swanson have club options for 2026, and bench coach Brad Ausmus and third base coach Luis Rojas are free agents. Their contracts are up. The contract statuses of the rest of the coaching staff, including hitting coach James Rowson, are unknown.

“If the opportunity arises, I’ll go with it,” Ausmus told Phillips when asked if he wants to manage again. “But if it doesn’t, I’m happy.”

Swanson and minor league catching coordinator Aaron Gershenfeld are miracle workers. Those two have turned bad defenders into good defenders and good defenders into great defenders behind the plate. This was their seventh year with the Yankees and they’ve been doing it for close to a decade now. Picking up Swanson’s option seems like a no-brainer to me. The Yankees are great at developing catchers on the defensive side.

Blake, I’m sure the Yankees will pick up the option, though the bullpen has not been quite as good the last two years, and it can’t all be Cashman’s fault. Blake’s overall body of work has been very good. I’m a firm believer in coaches having a shelf life though. Eventually it gets to the point where you need a new voice and new ideas. Are the Yankees there with Blake? I don’t think so, but when your M.O. is turning nobodies into a great bullpen, and your bullpen stinks, the question will be asked.

Ausmus and Rojas, whatever. I have no opinion of them. Rojas does seem indecisive at times. He’ll throw up the stop sign and then start waving the runner home, and vice versa. Every fan thinks their team’s third base coach stinks and Rojas is no exception. Based on contract status, bench coach and third base coach look like places where Boone’s staff could change this winter.

Yankees will have No. 35 pick in 2026 draft

As an ALDS loser who pays into revenue sharing and exceeded the $281M third luxury tax threshold, the Yankees will have the No. 35 overall pick in next summer’s amateur draft. I miss when the draft order was just reverse order of the standings. That was nice and easy. Now revenue sharing and luxury tax factor into things. Here’s how the first round is determined:

• Picks 1-6: Lottery

• Picks 7-18: Remaining non-postseason teams in reverse order of the standings

• Picks 19-22: Wild Card Series losers by record, revenue sharing payees before payers

• Picks 23-26: Division Series losers by record, revenue sharing payees before payers

• Picks 27-28: Championship Series losers by record, revenue sharing payee before payer

• Pick 29: World Series loser

• Pick 30: World Series winner

The Tigers (87-75), Cubs (92-70), Yankees (94-68), and Phillies (96-66) lost in the LDS. The Tigers receive revenue sharing these days, which is pretty pathetic. The Cubs, Phillies, and Yankees of course pay into revenue sharing. So, picks 23-26 are set like so:

23. Tigers (87-75, receive revenue sharing)
24. Cubs (92-70, pay revenue sharing)
25. Yankees (94-68, pay revenue sharing)
26. Phillies (96-66, pay revenue sharing)

Luxury tax penalties bump the No. 25 pick back 10 spots to No. 35, and there you go. The Yankees had the No. 39 pick last year, so a four-spot improvement. It is way, way too early to have even an inkling of who the Yankees might take at No. 35. MLB Pipeline’s 2026 draft prospects are not out yet. I can tell you that Jacob Lombard, George Jr.’s younger brother, has a chance to go No. 1 overall.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)