October 10th, 2025: Judge, Rodón, Williams, Rice, Lombard

The first post of the offseason is always a weird one. I have a list of things I want to write about, but also the season just ended, and I’m not ready to get into all that just yet. Given the quick turnaround from the Game 4 post to today’s post, I’m just gonna catch up on the mailbag today. Things will go back to normal next week. Here now is today’s quickie mailbag-only post.

Andy asks: Why is everyone calling this Judge's postseason "moment"? He had one last year against Clase that was arguably bigger than this one. Everyone used the "this is Judge's postseason moment" phrase last year. Why is this so forgettable? Can we give the man credit for hitting a game tying 8th inning home run off the best closer in the game in the ALCS? This is "another" moment, not "the" moment. 

Two reasons I’d call the Game 3 homer Aaron Judge’s signature postseason moment over the Emmanuel Clase homer last year (they both tied the game). One, the Yankees were down 2-0 in the series this year and facing elimination. The Yankees were up 2-0 last year. Doing it with the season on the line is much different than doing it when you’re looking to go from “in great position to win the series” to “near lock to win the series.”

And two, the Yankees lost the Clase game. The Yankees have an annoying knack for losing games when Judge hits big homers (Clase last year, the Garrett Crochet game earlier this year, Game 5 of the 2020 ALDS, etc.) and the loss wasn’t on him, but I find it hard to label something a signature moment when it comes in a loss. The Clase home run was awesome. Ultimately, I’m cool with calling the Game 3 homer (also awesome) Judge’s big postseason moment given the stakes. Too bad the Yankees lost the series.

(If you want to get nerdy about it, the Clase homer has a significant edge in Championship Probability Added over the Game 3 homer: 4.1% to 1.7%.)

Mark asks: I was surprised to read that the Yankees will be able to start Fried twice against the Blue Jays (if necessary) due to the off days built into the schedule. In addition to the extra days of rest, I always believed one of the advantages of getting the bye (and thus an encouragement to win the division/shoot for best record) was the fact you might only have to face the wild card winners ace once. I can’t recall if this has been a part of the DS schedules since the move to three-game WC series but I have to imagine there could be some complaints about it from higher seeded teams if things don’t go their way. Do you see that as plausible?

The schedule is the same. The Wild Card Series Game 1 starter has been able to start Game 2 of the Division Series on normal rest since the Wild Card Series became a thing. The upside of the bye is skipping a round, first and foremost, and also getting a more favorable pitching matchup in Game 1. There won’t be any complaints about pitching schedules (there is only so much flexibility with the postseason schedule anyway.) Complaints should be about not reseeding. The No. 1 seed playing the winner of the No. 4 vs. No. 5 Wild Card Series because it guarantees the No. 1 seed will play a Wild Card team rather than a division winner is so stupid. The best Wild Card team is better than the worst division winner almost every year. MLB should reseed after every round and the highest seed should play the worst seed. The pitching schedule hasn’t changed though. The Game 1 starter in the Wild Card Series has always been able to start Game 2 of the Division Series.

Eric asks: Is it concerning that Rodon wasn't able to get his velocity up in either postseason start? I think the thought process later in the season was he was trying to preserve for the long season, but it closer to looking like the velocity drop is real. 

It sure is concerning. Carlos Rodón’s velocity fluctuated down the stretch and trended down later in the season. Rodón’s an excitable guy and I figured we’d see a velocity spike in the postseason, but it wasn’t there. His heater averaged 92.9 mph in ALDS Game 2 and topped out at 94.7 mph, which is lower than his average velocity in six of his first seven regular season starts.

Rodón threw a career high 195.1 innings during the regular season, more than he threw last year in the regular season and postseason combined (192.2). That’s two long, back-to-back seasons with a short offseason between them. Hopefully Carlos just ran out of gas and this isn’t permanent age-related velocity loss, because, like everyone else, Rodón is a different guy at 93-95 mph than he is at 95-97 mph.

The Yankees leaned heavily on Rodón and Max Fried this year, understandably, though giving every starter more rest next year would be a fine idea. Take the Brewers/Dodgers approach and push them back now and then, or even give them a quick 15-day breather on the injured list at midseason. Save bullets for October. This is way, way easier said than done, I know, but it’s a thing smart teams do now.

Pat asks: Yanks are in dire need of a bullpen makeover for 2026. What would it take to convince Michael King to return as a high leverage, multi-inning reliever and do you think this is a worthwhile plan?  He seemed to enjoy it here and perhaps this role keeps him healthier as pitching 100 innings might be easier on him than 175.  Thanks.

I am very much in favor of a Mike King reunion. He had some injuries this year (shoulder and knee) and I will have to dig into things further at some point, but he’s a very good pitcher who has shown the ability to adapt and make himself better, and you already know he can handle a big market and fit in well with the organization. Plus he’s a swell guy too. Who didn’t enjoy King as a Yankee? The Yankees didn’t want to trade him. They only did it because how else do you get an outfielder like Trent Grisham?

I wouldn’t sign King as a reliever either. Bring him back to start. The Yankees have five starters under contract/team control next year (Max Fried, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren), but someone’s going to hurt, and if the Yankees are lucky, it will be someone instead of someones (plural). I don’t want to count on 35-year-old Gerrit Cole coming off Tommy John surgery returning at midseason to make an impact either. If it happens, great, but “Cole will be back to help” is should not be Plan A for the rotation.

King can start, and if it turns out he fits better in the bullpen, you know he can do that too. Given what he’s shown the last two years, I think it would be a waste to sign him as a reliever. Plus you know other teams will value him as a starter and be willing to pay him accordingly. You'll wind up paying starter dollars to get a reliever. (A reliever who’s shown he can start and be very good in that role!)

Several asked: What about re-signing Devin Williams?

Who would have guessed I would get multiple questions about this after the start to his season? Williams, like every other free-agent-to-be on the roster, said he enjoyed his time with the Yankees and is open to returning after Game 4. (At least some of that is not closing the door on a big market team as a potential landing spot, even if only to use the Yankees as leverage against other teams.)

"At first it was a challenge, but I've grown to love being here. I love the city. I love taking the train to the field every day. I've really enjoyed my experience here,” Williams said (video). “… I’m definitely open to (re-signing). It takes two parties for that. I would definitely be open to that.”

I am open to re-signing Williams. He had some blowups this year, for sure. He also had some stretches of real dominance. After losing the closer’s job (for the first time) in late April, Williams had a 38.2 K% and 2.47 FIP in 54 innings the rest of the way. At one point in August he struck out 18 of 25 batters in an eight-game span, plus he finished the season well and handled postseason high leverage duty nicely.

The great unknown is what Williams wants. Does he want to close? Does he want a multi-year contract or is he open to a short-term deal* so he can rebuild value and then cash in next offseason? Clay Holmes had some bad blowups last year and still got a nice contract (three years and $38M). I bet multiple years will be out there for Hi Lev Dev, who turned 31 in September. (For some reason I thought he was 28 or 29.)

* Short-term deal here likely means a one-year contract with a player option(s) as insurance in case Williams blows out his elbow or completely loses it. Straight one-year deals for top players in their prime aren’t a thing anymore.

My guess is this year was bumpy enough that the Yankees will turn the page and move on. No special insight here. Just a guess. Also, the Yankees have to rebuild almost an entire bullpen. I don’t think they’ll sink significant dollars ($10M to $12M per year?) into one reliever, even a very good one. It’s been a long time since they’ve done that. I’m open to re-signing Williams. I think the Yankees will look elsewhere.

Anonymous asks: Is it time for the Yankees to break precedent and extend Ben Rice now?

I don’t think it’s necessary. Rice is great and I’m looking forward to him being the full-time guy at first base next season (I don’t think the catcher thing is gonna work out in a way that really matters), but he will turn 27 in February and the Yankees have team control of him through 2030, his age 31 season. There’s not much defensive value and the jury is still out on the platoon issues. Rice isn’t the kinda guy I would be in a rush to lock up long-term. The Yankees already control him through his peak years.

Now, if Rice is willing to take a sweetheart deal, then I’m all ears. He was a late round pick who didn’t get a big bonus ($125,000) and is just now sticking in the big leagues, plus Rob Manfred has made it clear a lockout is coming, which will potentially threaten games/salary in 2027. Rice might jump at the financial security. I know I would. No similar players (old-ish rookie, defensively limited, five years of control) have signed extensions recently, so we have to build one from scratch. How about:

• 2026: $850,000 (pre-arb season) (MLB minimum will be $780,000)

• 2027: $900,000 (pre-arb season)

• 2028: $2M (first arb season)

• 2029: $4M (second arb season)

• 2028: $6M (third arb season)

• 2029: $7M club option (free agent year)

That’s five years and $13.75M. Throw in a signing bonus and an option buyout, and we can stretch that to $15M. Andrew Vaughn, a decidedly mediocre first base-only guy before getting to the Brewers, pulled in $3.25M, $5.85M, and $7.8M (projected) during his three arbitration years. I used Vaughn as a reference point for Rice’s potential arb salaries and lowered the number because again, I’m talking about a sweetheart deal.

Players like Rice, the bat heavy guy with little to no (to negative) secondary skills, can go from middle of the lineup mainstay to non-tender candidate very quickly. I don’t see the need to jump into an extension with so many years of team control remaining. I hope Rice mashes and makes himself a boatload of money. I just wouldn’t do an extension. This isn’t the profile you commit to before you have to.

Brian asks: Does Lombard start next year at AAA?

Nah, I don’t think so. I think George Lombard Jr. will get to Triple-A at some point next year (as long as he doesn’t fall on his face), but not on Opening Day. He hit .215/.337/.358 (111 wRC+) in Double-A this season and was better in his last 54 games with Somerset (121 wRC+) than his first 54 (100 wRC+), but he is still a 20-year-old kid who had trouble squaring up Double-A pitching. I expect him to return to Somerset to begin 2026 and move up to Triple-A at midseason, maybe as early as May. I absolutely do not expect him to come up and help the MLB team in any way next year.

Jake asks: Watching Yankees legend, Don Mattingly, help deliver the 2025 knockout punch, begs the question, is it time to bring Don Mattingly back as the Yankees manager next season?  It's clear the hitting approach of the Jay's holds up in the postseason, contact, traffic on the bases, tough at bat after tough at bat.  Can'y imagine a better mentor to our left hand dominant lineup of Jazz, Rice, Wells, Bellinger...  

This is Mattingly’s third year with the Blue Jays and he’s gone from bench coach (2023) to bench coach and offensive coordinator (2024) to just bench coach again (2025). Toronto has a hitting coach and two assistant hitting coaches. Their offense struggled so much last year (23rd in runs per game) that they took the offensive coordinator (I guess baseball has those now?) title away from Mattingly and brought in others to run the offense. If you want to improve the offense, I don’t think he’s the guy to hire.

Also, if you do think Mattingly can improve the offense, then you hire him to be the hitting coach, not the manager. They are two different jobs with two different sets of responsibilities. Mattingly has been a manager (2011-15 Dodgers and 2016-22 Marlins) and didn’t do anything to distinguish himself. Perhaps he’s grown and would be a different manager now than he was then, but I can’t say I’m eager to find out. Other than “he was a great Yankee four decades ago,” is there anything to suggest Mattingly can be a championship caliber manager? Hiring the former legend to manage often works out poorly.

Alessandro asks: Let's assume two things: 1) the Yankees won't fire Aaron Boone regardless of who this postseason goes. 2) Even if they do, they wouldn't go for a more old school manager. Those being said, would you be interested in bringing Ron Washington onto the coaching staff? He's done great work with infielders around the league, and his calling card is an emphasis on the fundamentals. Seems like exactly what the team needs

The Angels parted ways with Washington after the season (his contract was up, it wasn’t a firing) and I’m not sure what he plans to do next. He’ll turn 74 in April and he had quadruple bypass surgery in June, which is why he stepped away from the team. Washington won a World Series ring as a coach with the 2021 Braves, so he checked that box. It wouldn’t surprise me if he decides it’s time to walk away from the game.

If he does want to continue though, then yeah, he’s worth looking into as a coach. Washington has a great reputation for helping infielders. Marcus Semien and Dansby Swanson have both credited him for turning them into Gold Glovers, and he seems to be great with young players and improving their feel and overall execution. As a manager, no, pass. As a coach, or even as an advisor who floats around and helps the team rather than being on the everyday staff, sure, I think the Yankees could use someone like Washington.

David asks: I know external sources like Forbes release numbers on the overall “value” of teams, but are there any reliable sources on profitability out there? I.E., how much straight cash is added to the pockets of the ownership group members each year? I ask because I’ve been wondering what Brian Cashman’s role actually is under the juniors. For their dad, it was to win World Series, full stop. By that metric, he doesn’t seem very successful, and you have to imagine there are alternatives around the league who might be able to do it better. But what if Cashman’s job isn’t actually to win, but just to make sure the inherited money pile keeps getting bigger? Is there any way to know whether he’s doing that better than his peers? And if so, could that explain, at least in part, the seeming complacency to make changes in leadership when leadership seems to be a problem?

Lowering payroll after losing the World Series confirms winning the World Series is not the No. 1 priority. Evidence gets no harder than that. Brian Cashman’s job, above all, is to build a team that competes every year and stays within ownership’s payroll parameters (which are presumably set to maximize profits), and he does that. If the Yankees run into a championship along the way, great, but the Steinbrenners are happy with the way things are going/have gone, otherwise Cashman would not be running the team.

(Cashman’s job is also to play the bad cop, which he does well. He’s the one who goes public with the team’s extension offer to Aaron Judge and plays hardball during negotiations, then Hal Steinbrenner gets to come in and seal the deal, and say “I offered the ninth year, aren’t I great?”)

Whenever Cashman’s time as GM is up, I expect him to remain with the Yankees as a special advisor or whatever, and have a say in his replacement, if not handpick his replacement (assistant GM Tim Naehring seems like the current favorite). Does Hal strike you as eager to do a thorough search for a new GM? Cashman is an honorary Steinbrenner at this point. They’ll likely let him pick his replacement and go from there. It starts with Hal. He is not an innocent bystander in the team's World Series drought. Cashman remains in charge because ownership is happy with his performance, full stop.

Anonymous asks: Watching game 1 and having Cone in the booth is great because he watches the Yankees every game, would it ever be possible for national broadcasts to have a play by play guy whose neutral and then one color guy from each team? It’d give more insight to the day to day especially for fans who are unfamiliar with the teams 

I understand why it doesn’t happen (money) but I would absolutely love to listen to local broadcasters in the postseason (well, some of them). One of the upsides of being a Knicks fan is getting Mike Breen on the call on ABC/ESPN all the way through the playoffs. Three-man booths can be busy, but my ideal postseason booth is a play-by-play guy with one local analyst from each team. They just know the team better than the national guys who parachute in and only cover the postseason. I’m not trying to be a jerk. I cover all 30 teams for CBS and it’s hard to stay up on all of them all season. You just get a better product when the people covering the game follow the team all year, and we don’t get in the postseason. ESPN, FOX, and TBS all pay big money for their national broadcasters, so that’s who we have to listen to. It is what it is.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)