Thoughts after Game 4 of the 2025 ALDS

Five innings. The Yankees held a lead for five innings in the four-game ALDS. They were outscored 38-19 and outhomered 9-4, and there just weren’t many moments during their 17 head-to-head games this year that the Yankees looked like they were on the same level as the Blue Jays. They finished with identical 94-68 records during the regular season, but did they look evenly matched? I don’t think so.

“The ending's the worst, right?” Aaron Boone said in his annual “we just got eliminated” press conference.  “Especially when you know you have a really good group and a group of guys that really came together so well at the right time, the final couple months. This was a team. It's a team that played for one another, did a lot of really good things, and we got beat here.”

The World Series drought is up to 16 years, the second longest in franchise history (non-Highlanders edition) behind 17 years from 1979-95. I know fans of other teams roll their eyes at a 16-year title drought, and I know winning the World Series is much harder now than it was for most of baseball history, but it is an agonizingly long drought for the Yankees. Or at least it should be. Sometimes it feels like the people running the team don’t think it is. 

Anyway, the season is over. At times it was fun – very fun – but it was often frustrating and apparent this team lacked the bullpen to make a deep postseason run, among other things. I can’t say I’m surprised the Yankees got run out the building the way they did in the ALDS. That wasn't a "things just didn't go our way" series. The Yankees got outplayed almost every step of the way. Let’s get into Game 4 before we get into the offseason.

One-man offense

All told, Aaron Judge hit .500/.581/.692 (253 wRC+) with the one homer and a 16.1 K% in seven postseason games. He also played very good defense, at least as well as his limited arm allowed. Judge did just about everything a player could do for his team this October, and the rest of the Yankees let him down. The ALDS boiled down to this:

Vlad Guerrero Jr.: .529/.550/1.059 (324 wRC+) in 20 PA
Rest of Blue Jays: .313/.348/.542 (145 wRC+) in 141 PA

Aaron Judge: .600/.684/.933 (340 wRC+) in 19 PA
Rest of Yankees: .207/.277/.339 (70 wRC+) in 137 PA

The Yankees lost because Vlad Jr. was a monster, yes, but also because they had no answer for Ernie Clement and Nathan Lukes, or any one of the other NPCs the Blue Jays have in their lineup on any given day. There have been times Judge has let the Yankees down in the postseason, absolutely. It can not be said this year. The Yankees failed him. His teammates, the coaches, the front office, everyone.

Toronto’s Game 4 bullpen game could not have gone better. The Yankees were susceptible to lefty relievers all season and especially once Paul Goldschmidt went over the cliff and Anthony Volpe’s latest cortisone shot wore off. The Blue Jays treated every Judge at-bat as high leverage …

• 1st inning: Single off usual high leverage righty Louie Varland.

• 3rd inning: Line out off usual high leverage righty Seranthony Domínguez.

• 6th inning: Intentionally walked with the bases empty by swingman lefty Eric Lauer.

• 8th inning: Struck out against righty Braydon Fisher.

• 9th inning: Single off closer Jeff Hoffman.

… and then just matched up the rest of the way down the lineup. Trey Yesavage was in the bullpen and available, and before the game Blue Jays manager John Schneider made it sound like he was in the plans, but once Toronto broke things open late, they were able to go with Fisher in the eighth rather than Yesavage or Hoffman earlier or whatever the plan was. Otherwise, Judge saw Toronto’s best all game (or got walked intentionally).

The pitching was horrible in the ALDS, and so was the offense aside from Judge. Cody Bellinger went 3-for-16 (.188) in the four games. Jazz Chisholm Jr. went 2-for-14 (.143). Trent Grisham went 2-for-17 (.118). Those three were such a great supporting cast for Judge from April through September, then they were invisible in October. The Yankees collectively chased too much and didn’t grind out at-bats. Their approach fell apart.

We’ve got an entire offseason to discuss why the offense fell flat and what did and didn’t work, and what the Yankees must do to improve. They need more balance and not just left/right. They need more contact if they plan to continue to roster three of the 10 lowest in-zone contact rates among qualified hitters (Giancarlo Stanton would be a fourth if he played enough). They need more FU in their game too.

Judge had the postseason we’ve been waiting for him to have, and it didn’t matter. This season ended the same way they all have since Judge arrived in 2017. This got old a long time ago. The Yankees feel very stale. They preach stability, I say it’s stagnation. I have no reason to think Boone or Brian Cashman will be replaced, and in that case, why would we expect a different outcome in 2026? Are we supposed to just hope things go their way next time?

Schlittler gave the Yankees a chance

Cam Schlittler was the only starter to be competitive in the ALDS. He was better in Game 4 than his line suggests: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K on 88 pitches. Chisholm’s error on a potential inning-ending double play ball kept the seventh inning alive, then Devin Williams allowed the two inherited runners to score when Lukes chopped at a fastball up here:

Game 3 was the first time Hi Lev Dev went more than one inning since May 2023 and Game 4 was only the third time this year he entered mid-inning with a man on base (not counting the automatic runner in extra innings). The other two times were lower leverage appearances after he’d been demoted out of the closer’s role the Yankees were trying to get him on track. Game 4 (or the ALDS) wasn’t on Williams.

Anyway, Schlittler’s velocity was down a tad in Game 4, which means he was 96-97 with a few 98s rather than 98-99 with a few 100s. That was enough for the Blue Jays to contact bomb him for a run in the first inning* and again in the fifth. At one point Schlittler retired 11 of 12, and he pitched into the seventh after the other three starters combined for eight innings in the series. Cam did his part. What more could you want from a rookie?

* The Yankees definitely should have intentionally walked Guerrero with first base open, but given how the rest of the inning/game played out, I’m not sure it mattered.

The Yankees finished with an 8.47 ERA (5.47 FIP) in the ALDS. That’s 34 runs allowed (32 earned) in 34 innings. It is the highest ERA in a postseason series in franchise history. Pitching was an issue all season, especially in the bullpen. Schlittler, not Max Fried or Carlos Rodón, being the team’s best postseason starter is a reason the Yankees are going home. Fried and Rodón were just bad. Disappointing.

Miscellany

There were a few pinch-hitting/not pinch-hitting decisions I didn’t like, though I don’t think it would have changed the outcome. After Goldschmidt’s walk leading off the eighth, Austin Wells was allowed to face a lefty. I would’ve pinch-hit Amed Rosario. That’s why the Yankees carried three catchers, right? Rosario pinch-hit for Ryan McMahon later in the inning and singled, but by then there were two outs. I would’ve used Rosario sooner and tried to build a rally with no outs after Goldschmidt’s walk … Jasson Domínguez got a pity at-bat to start the ninth (pinch-hitting for Volpe) and doubled. He wasn’t good enough to start in September or October, but he was good enough to get an at-bat with the season down to its final three outs. I have no idea what to expect from El Marciano next year, both in terms of production and how the Yankees will use him … Volpe went 1-for-15 with 11 strikeouts in the ALDS. He can not be the shortstop in 2026, but I think we all know “he played hurt and we’re excited about him being healthy next year” is coming.

Injury updates and roster notes

After Game 4, both Judge (flexor) and Volpe (shoulder) gave the standard “I’m not a doctor, I don’t know” answer when asked if they’ll need surgery this offseason. We should get an answer when the Yankees hold their end-of-season press conference, whenever that is … Gerrit Cole (elbow) is still going with his throwing program. I saw him throwing on the field before Game 4. I think I remember Cole saying he’s targeting sometime in October or November to throw off a mound, but don’t hold me to that. Either way, he is still throwing … And finally, if you still care about such things, Brent Headrick and Ryan Yarbrough threw bullpens Wednesday. I’m pretty sure I saw Yerry De Los Santos out there too. He must’ve joined the team for the ALDS. Those guys were still staying ready just in case they were needed at some point.

Up next

Boone and Cashman will have their annual end-of-season press conferences at some point. The Yankees haven’t said when yet, though it is usually sooner rather than later. Could be within the next week or so. It's the same song and dance every year (we liked our team but fell short, etc.), but the pressers do often bring news, like injury updates and occasionally roster decisions. That’ll happen soon enough.

As for RAB, I’m going back to the usual Tuesday/Friday posting schedule, plus bonus posts as warranted (trades, etc.). Tomorrow’s post will be shorter than usual just because it’s been busy the last few weeks. I’m planning to empty out the mailbag and that’s probably it. We’ll get back to normal and dive more into things next week. Thanks as always for reading and your support, everyone. Too bad the postseason run was so short.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)