Thoughts before Game 4 of the 2025 ALDS

Confession: I wrote a “Yankees lose” version of last night’s very quick post around the third inning. Not so much because I was dooming, but because the game looked headed in that direction, and I wanted to get it off my plate before my CBS responsibilities kicked in. I’m glad it wasn’t needed. I threw it in the Content Graveyard, if you care. The Yankees still have a ways to go, but they’re not going away quietly.

“It's competition. Just playoff baseball too. Anything can happen. You've got to just keep grinding away,” Aaron Boone said about the comeback. “… Just an awesome team win. So many guys playing an important role in some way, shape, or form makes it a lot of fun.”

The Yankees scored eight unanswered runs after falling behind 6-1 and did it via homers, base hits, and by taking advantage of sloppy defense. They had more extra-base hits in Game 3 (six) than they did in Games 1-2 combined (five), and the pitching staff/defense had nearly as many scoreless innings (six) as they did in the first two games (seven). Almost every aspect of the team picked it up in Game 3, and it was needed.

The five-run comeback is tied for the second largest postseason comeback in franchise history, behind only the six-run comeback in Game 4 of the 1996 World Series. It’s the third largest comeback any team has made in an elimination game. Did you know the Yankees have never been swept in the ALDS? They are now 4-0 in Game 3 when trailing the series 2-0. Can’t stop now though. Two more wins to go.

Here are the updated ZiPS odds:

Game 3 needs to be the comeback within the comeback. The Inception comeback. Turn Game 3 into a loss that haunts the Blue Jays forever. I mean, a 6-1 lead in the third? A few innings away from your first postseason series win in a decade? With a bullpen game planned for Game 4? Yankees, please, make them remember that one like they remember all those Maple Leafs collapses in Toronto.

It will be Cam Schlittler vs. Louie Varland in Game 4 on Wednesday night (7pm ET on FS1). Win the Blue Jays’ planned bullpen game in Game 4 and send the series back to Toronto with all of Canada nervous. Sounds like a plan. Here are a few thoughts on a great night.

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Aaron Judge was catching a lot of grief going into Game 3 and I dunno, it seemed misguided. Don’t get me wrong, even I pointed out he was having a low impact postseason despite his strong numbers, but the Yankees did not lose Games 1 and 2 because of Aaron Judge. They allowed 23 runs in the two games, the most runs any team has allowed in the first two games of a single postseason series ever. It was the pitching, stupid.

Judge was not the reason the Yankees lost Games 1 and 2 but he was going to have to be a reason they won Game 3, and holy crap, what a swing on that home run (video). How does a man that big pull his hands in this much to get to a 100 mph inside pitch, and keep it fair? Special player doing special things:

“I get yelled at for swinging out of the zone, but now I'm getting praised for it,” Judge joked, referring to his bases loaded strikeout in Game 1. ”… Just trust your eyes, trust your swing. I feel like I can get to every pitch in the zone. I think the biggest thing is just being ready on time. I think it's all timing. That's what a lot of hitting comes down to. If you're not ready to swing or ready early, you're not going to hit anything.”

Louie Varland’s 99.7 mph fastball is the fastest pitch Judge has ever hit for a home run, and it’s also the farthest inside pitch he’s ever hit out (1.2 feet from the center of the plate). It is the fastest pitch that was off the plate inside that any batter has hit out since pitch-tracking launched in 2008. I’m not sure there’s another player on the planet who can hit that pitch for a home run. As Blue Jays manager John Schneider put it: “That was a ridiculous swing.”

The homer was the highlight of the night (season?) but it was hardly Judge’s only contribution. He doubled in a run to get the Yankees to within 6-2. He made a tough running catch and a diving catch in right field, the latter of which took at least a single away from Anthony Santander (video), if not kept a run off the board. The Blue Jays intentionally walked Judge with the bases empty and one out in the sixth, then he came around to score an insurance run. He did it all.

In this sport, it is almost impossible for one player to take over a game the way Judge took over Game 3. Even with Vlad Guerrero Jr. smashing everything, Judge was the best hitter on the field and the best defender on the field. He’s up to .500/.577/.727 (263 wRC+) with a 15.4 K% in six postseason games. That’s 15 times on base and 11 outs made. He’s reached base seven times in his last eight plate appearances.

Around these parts, we’ll remember Judge’s home run forever, though the Yankees do need to complete the ALDS comeback for it to become an everlasting signature moment and not be forgotten to history like Alfonso Soriano’s homer in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, or DJ LeMahieu’s homer in Game 6 of the 2019 ALCS. That’s just how it goes. With the season on the line though, the captain showed up. It was as clutch and as dominant a postseason performance as you’ll ever see.

Bullpen on parade

I want to keep things positive here so I will only quickly note that Carlos Rodón wasn’t good. The Yankees have gotten eight innings from their starters in three games, and Rodón and Max Fried were tagged for 13 runs and 19 baserunners in 5.1 innings. I can’t say I’m surprised the Yankees are facing elimination when their top two starters did that. Who would’ve guessed Luis Gil would be their best starter this series?

Rodón got rocked and bowed out early, but the bullpen, so maligned all year, delivered the performance of the year to keep the season alive. Five relievers went 23 up and 20 down, and did not allow a baserunner to advance as far as third base. Heroic, this is:

Fernando Cruz stopped the bleeding in the third. Camilo Doval continued his late season surge into the Circle of Trust™. Tim Hill got through his lefty lane (Addison Barger and Andrés Giménez) and also got through George Springer and Davis Schneider atop the lineup. The Yankees had stretched the lead to 8-6 at that point, but still. Righties slugged .508 against Hill during the regular season and he got through two tough ones.

I started doing the math in my head when Hill stayed in to face Springer and Schneider. At that point, all the Yankees had left in the bullpen was Devin Williams and David Bednar, broken Luke Weaver, and Paul Blackburn. I figured Boone would force-feed Weaver high leverage work out of necessity, but once Hill got through the sixth, Weaver stayed seated in the bullpen (he never even warmed up in Game 3).

The redemption of Devin Williams has been something these last few weeks. He’s been, by far, their most reliable setup reliever, and in Game 3, he recorded four outs not just for the first time all year. It was the first time he went more than one inning since May 2023. Hi Lev Dev exited to a standing ovation. Who had Williams getting ovations and Weaver being persona non grata in October? This sport, man.

"That was definitely a lot better than what I've heard for much of the year,” Williams joked about getting the ovation.

Bednar recorded the final five outs about as efficiently as possible (21 pitches). The Yankees used five relievers to throw the final 6.2 innings of Game 3, they were all excellent, and none of them were pushed to the limit. They’ll all be available in Game 4. Shoutout to Will Warren. The Yankees got blasted in Game 2, but Warren soaking up innings preserved arms for Games 3 and 4.

Also, the failed comeback in Game 2 gave the Yankees an extra look at Toronto’s bullpen. It was a bad loss, no doubt, but there was value added there. The Blue Jays have a bullpen game planned for Game 4 and the Yankees have already seen Varland three times and Seranthony Domínguez, Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher, and Brendon Little twice each this series. Without the failed comeback in Game 2, there would be less familiarity.

Need good Schlitt in Game 4

Schlittler’s worst big league start came against the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium a few weeks ago: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP on 66 pitches. 66 pitches! The Yankees survived Rodón’s bad start in Game 3 and who knows? Maybe they can complete the ALDS comeback while getting nothing but three or fewer innings from their starters. I really don’t want to find out though.  

“It was impressive how many foul balls there were, but I think I'm a different pitcher now than I was when I faced them a month ago and now even from two weeks ago,” Schlittler said Tuesday. ”They had a good game plan that day and they were able to foul a lot of balls off and work my count. Going into tomorrow, just making sure that I can make those adjustments and get the weak contact that I'm looking for.”

Last week Schlittler buried the Red Sox with fastballs. The Blue Jays are much better against velocity than Boston though. In September, Toronto was fifth in xwOBA against 95 mph heaters (the Red Sox were 22nd), and I’m using September only just because it better represents the team the Blue Jays will have on the field in Game 4. We don’t care about the April Blue Jays, right? We care about the now Blue Jays.

Schlittler threw a season high 26% cutters in that Blue Jays start, though remembering that game, it was a “they’re on my four-seamer and I need to try something else” thing. He didn’t go into that start planning to use more cutters. The sinker, which he threw a season high 22% of the time against Boston (previous season high was 12%), will probably come into play in Game 4. Maybe the new-ish slider too?

I’m not sure what the adjustment will be in Game 4. Whatever it is, Schlittler has to pitch well Wednesday. It is imperative. These three inning starts can’t continue. The Yankees can’t keep playing from behind (by a lot of runs) or keep asking their bullpen to soak up so many outs. Schlittler already has one legacy game this postseason. I’m not expecting a second because that’s a lot to ask of anyone, but could be cool?

Miscellany

Shoutout Austin Wells, who had two hits in Game 3 and reached on Barger’s dropped pop up to begin the three-run rally in the fourth. The wraparound 9-1-2-3 portion of the lineup went 8-for-16 (.500) with three doubles, a homer, three walks, and one strikeout. That’ll do, gentlemen … We got the Jazz Chisholm Jr. postseason bat flip I’ve been waiting for since last year. This wasn’t a Judgian piece of hitting, but this is a 99.4 mph piece of cheese. Jazz’s hands are lightning and he got to it. Come for the bat flip, stay for Varland’s reaction:

It didn’t work out, but I loved Boone going to Amed Rosario to pinch-hit for Ryan McMahon in the third inning. The Yankees were down 6-3 and it was a guaranteed at-bat against a lefty with two on. You need offense to save your season at that point, not McMahon’s glove, and Rosario was the best option to hit in that spot. It didn’t work out, he fouled out behind the plate, but I loved the move … And finally, José Caballero has been dealing with a finger injury the last few weeks and it hurts when he gets jammed, which is why the trainer came out to check on him during his eighth inning at-bat. McMahon and Rosario were already out of the game. I was worried we were going to get J.C. Escarra at third base in the ninth. Caballero stayed in though, singled, and made a terrific diving stop to record the 27th out (video). I used to hate that guy. Now I love him. 

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. I will get to them as I can during the postseason. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)