Thoughts after Game 1 of the 2025 ALDS

The Blue Jays have their first postseason win since 2016 and the Yankees are down 1-0 in the ALDS. Since Wild Cards became a thing in 1995, the team that wins Game 1 is 88-32 in best-of-five series. We know a 1-0 series deficit isn’t insurmountable, but beating Toronto three times in the next four games will be a heavy lift. At least Max Fried can start two of those four games, including Game 2. Here are a few thoughts on the Game 1 loss.

1. It might sound silly, but Game 1 was closer than the final score (10-1) suggests. It was 2-1 going into the bottom of the seventh! That is very winnable. The game swung in the top of the sixth. Kevin Gausman cruised through the first five innings on only 51 pitches – the plan to be aggressive and swing early in the count backfired terribly – before the Yankees loaded the bases with no outs for the 2-3-4 hitters.

With an opportunity like that, you can’t just chip away. You have to put a crooked number on their board, especially this time of year and especially when you have a chance to steal Game 1 on the road. The Yankees instead settled for one run on Cody Bellinger’s bases loaded walk. Aaron Judge’s strikeout completely short-circuited the rally. This 3-2 pitch was never a strike out of Gausman’s hand:

Just an awful, awful swing decision. The kind you usually don’t see from Judge until, well, October. If he wants to get the “can’t hit in the postseason” monkey off his back (like Vlad Guerrero Jr. did in Game 1), he needs to not do shit like that. The at-bat was good getting into the 3-2 count, Judge laid off some good splitters below the zone, and then that happened. Just wretched.

"I like our chances,” Judge said. “We've got to keep getting those opportunities and we're going to come through when we need to."

Ben Rice saw six splitters from Gausman and whiffed six times. The one ball he did put in play against Gausman was a pop up behind third base after Bellinger’s walk for the second out of that sixth inning. I can’t give Giancarlo Stanton too much grief for the inning-ending strikeout because Louie Varland was throwing 101 mph, but if there was ever a time for October G to show up, that was it. Alas.

That failed rally – I’m comfortable calling one run with the bases loaded and no outs for the 2-3-4 hitters a failed rally – changed the complexion of the game. Tie or pull ahead, and it changes everything. Bullpen usage, how both the hitters and pitchers approach things, etc. The Yankees could have swung the game in their favor in that sixth inning. They didn’t, then the Blue Jays ran away with it. That’s the story of Game 1.

(Toronto loaded the bases for their 2-3-4 hitters in the seventh and scored three runs. Must be nice.)

Thank goodness Alex Cora stuck with Garrett Whitlock too long, and the Red Sox kicked the ball around in that one inning in Game 3, because the offense has been pretty lousy for about 20 innings now. Bottom line, if Judge and Stanton don’t hit, the Yankees won’t go far. There’s no Juan Soto to pick up the slack this year. Judge is hitting an empty .400 this postseason, and Stanton is 1-for-15. Yuck.

2. If they need a No. 4 starter again at some point this postseason, I’m not sure the Yankees can start Luis Gil. Game 1 was more of the same, meaning stuff that is down a grade from last season and at-bats that are just way too comfortable. Every out is a battle. At his best last season, Gil overwhelmed hitters, and we haven’t seen that guy at any point this year. It ain’t good.

The two solo homers were just bad pitches. Gil left a 90 mph changeup up to Vlad Jr. and put a 95 mph heater on a tee to Alejandro Kirk. Bad pitches, these are:

Give Aaron Boone credit. I thought he was gonna stick with Gil way too long, but he got him out of there after 2.1 innings, and Tim Hill and Camilo Doval were great! They retired 10 of the 11 batters they faced (the one baserunner was an infield single) and held the line. Hill and Doval gave the offense a chance to get back in the game, then the offense scored one run after loading the bases with no outs. Blah.

“They were hunting the top of the zone a little bit, and I thought put a lot of good swings on them,” Boone said about Gil’s outing. “But live with the two solo shots. We're in the game there, and he did enough that we felt like we could still piece it together from there. Kind of hung around and just weren't able to punch through like we needed to in an inning where we had a chance to have a big one.”

For the second time in as many appearances this postseason, Luke Weaver faced three batters and did not record an out. Fernando Cruz was warming up as Weaver entered the game. If you trust Weaver that little and the leash is that short, just go straight to Cruz and don’t hope Weaver has it. Of course, Cruz gave up the yams too, so what difference does it make? Those two faced seven batters and got two outs.

• Hill and Doval: 11 batters and one baserunner (.091 OBP)

• Everyone Else: 29 batters and 15 baserunners (.517 OBP)

Paul Blackburn wearing it late and giving up four runs is whatever. He did his job there, and that was get the Yankees to the finish line without any other relievers having to come into the game. Weaver is just unusable now. Six batters, zero outs this postseason on the heels of a 9.64 ERA (4.85 FIP) in September. He has to be at the back of the bullpen line. Weaver has no business being in a close game.

"There's been a lot of internal factors. I don't want to get too crazy into it, but there's been adjustments I've have to make based off of things that people are seeing,” Weaver said after acknowledging he's tipping pitches. “It just hasn't really lined up. It's been pretty late in the adjustment period and it's just not lining up out there. I don't really feel like myself. I don't feel like my mind is completely clear to go out there and attack.”

The Blue Jays had more homers (three) than strikeouts (two) and almost as many baserunners (14) as swings and misses (18) in Game 1. Everyone the Yankees put on the mound except Doval and Hill was bad. It was a total team effort. On paper, the Yankees will have the starting pitching advantage in every game the rest of the way, which is only so reassuring. Gil was not good in Game 1 and it was maybe the third or fourth costliest thing to happen.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Judge’s throw on Anthony Santander’s seventh inning single was 90.2 mph, far and away his best since the flexor strain and about the same as his 90.4 mph pre-injury average. He had an 87.0 mph throw an inning later. That would have been his best since the injury if not for the 90.2 mph. Good sign? … Boone said he had José Caballero pinch-run mid-at-bat for Ryan McMahon because he changed his mind. That was it. I thought maybe it was a count thing (it was a 2-1 count and I though Boone might’ve wanted to make sure the run scores on an extra-base hit in a damage count), but nope, just changed his mind. Alrighty … That ball definitely hit Trent Grisham in the toe to lead off the game. Tough break. Can’t say it was a major factor in the outcome though … The Yankees have a 4.8 BB% this postseason. It was an MLB best 10.2 BB% during the regular season. Yeah, postseason pitching is better, but, league-wide, it was 8.4 BB% during the regular season and is 7.6% in October. There are walks to be had. The Yankees have to start taking them.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. I will get to them as I can during the postseason. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)