Thoughts before Game 3 of the 2025 Wild Card Series

One way or the other, something that hasn’t happened in a long time will happen tonight. Either the Yankees will beat a non-AL Central team in a postseason series* for the first time since beating the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS, or they’ll lose a postseason series* while having home field advantage for the first time since getting swept by the Tigers in the 2012 ALCS. One good, one not so good.

* I’m talking an actual series here. Multiple games. The Yankees did beat the Athletics in the 2018 Wild Card Game, and they lost to the Astros at home in the 2015 Wild Card Game, but those were single games. You have to go back to 2012 for the last time they beat a non-AL Central team in a multi-game postseason series and lost a multi-game postseason series while having home field advantage.

I forgot to get this into last night’s post: Austin Wells’ go-ahead single in Game 2 was the first go-ahead hit by a Yankee in the eighth inning or later of an elimination game since … Aaron Boone’s home run in 2003. Good omen? I’ll take it if it is, but the Yankees did lose the World Series that year. Here are a few quick thoughts heading into tonight’s win or go home Game 3.

1. Coming into the season, I definitely did not expect a) Cam Schlittler to get the ball in a win or go home  postseason game against the Red Sox, and b) to feel comfortable with Cam Schlittler getting the ball in a win or go home postseason game against the Red Sox. I mentioned this earlier this year: Schlittler made four Grapefruit League starts this spring, an unheard of number for a Yankees’ prospect with no MLB time. MLB.com's Spring Training stats go back to 2006 and no other Yankees’ prospect has done it since then. It was clear in March the Yankees loved this kid. The trusted Game 3 starter was hiding in plain sight.

“It is important,” Schlittler said Wednesday about getting the Game 3 start. “For (Boone) to put faith in me and we get to Game 3, that means a lot. So just making sure I am taking it as another game and going to do my job.”

The Red Sox have had issues with high velocity fastballs all year. They were bottom third of the league in outcome stats (AVG, SLG) and under-the-hood stuff (barrel rate, xwOBA) against 95 mph four-seamers during the regular season. Roman Anthony got hurt on Sept. 2nd. Here are Boston’s numbers on 95 mph four-seamers since then. This better represents the team they will have on the field in Game 3 than their full season numbers:

• AVG: .278 (3rd in MLB; MLB average: .233)

• SLG: .381 (13th in MLB; MLB average: .392)

• xwOBA: .318 (22nd in MLB; MLB average: .331)

• Barrel%: 4.2% (29th in MLB; MLB average: 9.6%)

Chalk that .278 AVG up to a .357 BABIP on these pitches. The Red Sox simply do not drive velocity as evidenced by their xwOBA and barrel rate. They’ll punch singles, but damage balls in play are typically kept to a minimum. That should work to Schlittler’s advantage given his velocity. He averaged 97.8 mph and topped out at 100.3 mph with the Yankees this year. Factor in postseason adrenaline, do we see 102 mph tonight? Even without it, Schlittler's fastball could overwhelm these BoSox.

2. Red Sox starter Connelly Early is more or less their Schlittler, that meteoric rise pitching prospect. The 2023 fifth round pick had a 2.33 ERA (0.91 FIP) with 36.7 K% and 5.1 BB% in four big league starts in September, though he did face the Athletics twice, the checked out Rays, and the collapsing Tigers. He isn’t really 0.91 FIP good because no one is that good. Here’s what Early looks like on the mound (GIF via Rob Friedman):

(Pretty pitch, but also Early missed his spot by the full width of the plate.)

Early is Boston’s Schlittler but they go about it in different ways. Schlittler is a power pitcher who will run his fastball up to 100 mph and back it up with cutters and curveballs (and a new slider). Early is more of a kitchen sink guy. He’s two different pitchers depending on the batter’s handedness. It’s four-seamers, curves, and changeups to righties. Against lefties, it’s sinkers and sliders/sweepers.

The public prospect scouting reports tout Early as a higher probability/lower ceiling starter because there’s no standout pitch (the changeup is said to be his best offering), though I don’t think you can put “low ceiling” on any pitching prospect these days. Teams quite literally design pitches in a lab. Schlittler was nothing like the guy he is now as recently as April, let alone last year or two years ago. We’re not so worried about the long-term right now though. Just tonight.

This will be the first ever postseason game featuring two starting pitchers with no more than 15 games of big league experience each. We should know right in the first inning how well the two rookies are handling the environment. It’s a win or go home game, so neither guy will have a long leash, and I imagine that will be especially true for a rookie. Boston’s bullpen is in better shape workload-wise than the Yankees' bullpen even if Garrett Whitlock is unavailable after those two innings and 47 pitches in Game 2.

(The Yankees have not faced Early and the Red Sox have not faced Schlittler. Maybe some of Boston's guys faced Schlittler in the minors, but I don't have time to look it up. As best I can tell, one Yankee has faced Early: Giancarlo Stanton. He doubled off him during a Double-A rehab game in June (video).)

3. On that note, here is the bullpen’s recent workload. This is from the FanGraphs’ Pitcher Usage page. It is easier to read there than in this image:

The Yankees basically never use a pitcher three days in a row, though I have to think Bednar and Hi Lev Dev will be available in Game 3. How effective will they be? Postseason adrenaline is a hell of a thing. They could be very effective tonight and absolutely wiped tomorrow. Those Sunday outings were so unnecessary, especially for Bednar, Weaver, and Williams. The Blue Jays had blown their game open by time those three pitched. What's done is done though. Doval might be asked to get some big outs in Game 3. Regardless, given the bullpen in general and those workloads, it will be hold onto your butts time when the door opens.

4. I think we’re going to see the A lineup tonight, even against the lefty starter. Prior to Game 1, Boone said “Goldy is going to play against every lefty we face,” but he doesn’t have to stick to that. He can put Ben Rice at first base and say he changed his mind, and that’ll be that. Paul Goldschmidt is a total pro and will do whatever the Yankees ask him to do. As for what the A lineup looks like, it’s this:

1. CF Trent Grisham
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Cody Bellinger
4. 1B Ben Rice
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton
6. 2B Jazz Chisholm
7. C Austin Wells
8. SS Anthony Volpe
9. 3B Ryan McMahon

I’d be tempted to flip Bellinger and Rice just to get Rice right behind Judge, who’s been on base four times in the two games. That 3-4-5-6-7 lane is going to see lefties all night, but what can the Yankees do? Alex Cora was hoping Boone would pinch-hit for Rice and Chisholm at some point in Game 2 to get them out of the game, and Boone didn’t take the bait. With the season on the line in Game 3, trust the guys who got you here and put your nine best players on the field, even if it is a platoon disadvantage. I think we get the A lineup.

5. We’re going to see Boston’s A lineup tonight too with Schlittler on the mound. They platoon heavily and that meant a lot of Nate Eaton and Nick Sogard against the lefty starters in Games 1 and 2 (those two reached base a combined five times in the two games, annoyingly). Their A lineup typically looks like this:

1. LF Jarren Duran
2. SS Trevor Story
3. 3B Alex Bregman
4. DH Masataka Yoshida
5. 2B Romy Gonzalez
6. CF Ceddanne Rafaela
7. 1B Nate Lowe
8. RF Wilyer Abreu
9. C Carlos Narváez 

Abreu had a good season overall but has been dreadful since returning from his calf injury two weeks ago (3-for-23 with nine strikeouts). He looks like a guy who needed a rehab assignment but couldn’t get one because the minor league season was over. Lowe has been pretty low impact the last few weeks. He had a nice start after signing with Boston in late August and has been mostly quiet since. (A friend of mine said Lowe looks like a Reno 911 character and I haven’t been able to get it out of my head since.)

Yoshida is not good. I know he had the game-winning two-run single in Game 1, but it was a ground ball that got through the left side of the infield. In Game 2, it was another ground ball to the left side. That was the one Chisholm dove to keep on the infield to save a run(s). Yoshida hit .266/.307/.388 (88 wRC+) this year, including .274/.318/.414 (98 wRC+) with 49.6 GB% against righties. Boston’s entire lineup is short on power these days and that includes their 4-3 putout merchant at DH.

The L/L/R/L lane in the 7-8-9-1 lineup spots is inviting for Tim Hill, though the Red Sox will pinch-hit for Lowe and Abreu with Eaton and Sogard. That will boil down to whether you want Hill vs. Eaton, Sogard, Narváez, and Duran or whichever righty against Lowe, Abreu, Narváez, and Duran. If you bait Cora into pinch-hitting, that could set up some favorable Eaton/Sogard vs. RHP at-bats later in the game. The managerial wheels will be turning (not always a good thing with Boone vs. Cora).

6. Quick RAB note: Late Game 3 start time (8pm ET rather than 6pm ET) plus three elimination games today means it will be a late and busy night on the CBS side. My plan is to toss up a quick post here after the final out just to acknowledge the outcome, but anything further in depth will have to wait for Friday. I will effort to get it up ASAP. Thanks for reading, as always.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. I will get to them as I can during the postseason. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)