Very quick thoughts before Game 2 of the 2025 Wild Card Series

The season is on the line tonight at Yankee Stadium (6pm ET on ESPN). Either the Yankees win and force a Game 3 tomorrow, or the season ends way too quickly and we’re asking the same “why can’t the Yankees beat non-AL Central teams in October? “ question. Here are the updated series ZiPS odds:

A one in three chance, more or less. If they can get through tonight, I would feel pretty good going into Game 3, but the Yankees have to get there first. Here are a few very quick thoughts going into Game 2.

– Brayan Bello is starting for the Red Sox and he’s had great success against the Yankees in his career (2.35 ERA and 3.25 FIP in 65 innings), but what does it matter? Only 19 of those 65 innings came this year. The 2022-24 Yankees have no relevance tonight, and neither do the 2025 regular season Yankees. Bello looked worn down in September (5.40 ERA and 4.70 FIP in five starts) and I hope that continues.

The thing is, if it does continue, the Red Sox won’t wait around for Bello to find it. Alex Cora wants to put this series to bed tonight and will go to his bullpen quickly, and that lefty heavy bullpen is a tough matchup for the Yankees. I would not at all be surprised to see Boston’s bullpen in the game by the fourth inning. If it happens, please leave Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ben Rice in the game. Stick with your best players with the season on the line, por favor. I promise no one will say "damn, why didn't Aaron Boone use Amed Rosario there?" after the game.

– Carlos Narváez threw out 30% of runners this season and basestealers went 16-for-22 (73%) with Bello on the mound. Those numbers say the Yankees should limit stolen base attempts, but I think they have to try. They have the personnel to do it (Chisholm, Cody Bellinger, Anthony Volpe, etc.) and they did such great work running the last few weeks, including against batteries that were good at holding runners. Don’t sit back and wait for a homer or to string together hits. I hope to see some aggressiveness on the bases.

– Obviously this has a lot to do with Garrett Crochet and Aroldis Chapman, but Red Sox pitchers threw the 14 fastest and 37 of the 38 fastest pitches in Game 1. In the seventh inning, Luke Weaver couldn’t get a fastball by anyone, and it cost him. In the ninth, Chapman threw fastballs by the Yankees (Trent Grisham, specifically) to escape that bases loaded jam. The regular season numbers:

Red Sox SP: 94.8 mph average four-seamer/sinker (5th in MLB)
Red Sox RP: 95.3 mph (5th)

Yankees SP: 93.9 mph average four-seamer/sinker (15th in MLB)
Yankees RP: 93.2 mph (29th)

Velocity equals margin of error and success. The Yankees can’t do anything about this now, but come the offseason, boosting velocity should be a priority, especially in the bullpen. (They did start this process with David Bednar and Camilo Doval.) The bullpen’s recent walk issues are tied directly to having so many relievers who rely on chase.

– I don’t want to overstate things but this is a potential legacy start for Carlos Rodón. Pitch well and get the Yankees to Game 3, and he’ll be a hero. Pitch poorly and get rocked, and it’ll suck, though the vibes aren’t great right now and I think Rodón would get only so much blame. Bit of a win/win then? Rodón has really turned things around since 2023. A win tonight would elevate him even further. Go do it, Carlos.

– Aaron Judge went 2-for-4 with two first pitch singles to help start rallies in Game 1. His teammates were unable to bring him home, but Judge did his part. I have a hard time seeing the Yankees completing this little best-of-three comeback without Judge making a real impact. It doesn’t have to be a homer, but at some point the situation will find him, and he’ll have to plate runs. That goes for Giancarlo Stanton too. He had some chances to swing Game 1 and couldn’t. This is why Judge and G get the big bucks. They have to drive the bus now.

– Weaver has been really up and down this season, especially the last few weeks, though Boone trusts him implicitly, and my guess is he will be back on the mound in a high leverage spot in Game 2. Boone won’t shy away from Weaver. I’m gonna be nervous no matter who comes out of the bullpen. The Game 1 meltdown will make me extra nervy when Weaver is in the game though. Such is life with relievers who blow games. Redeem yourself, Luke.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. I will get to them as I can during the postseason. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)