Thoughts after Game 1 of the 2025 Wild Card Series

And just like that, the Yankees are on the brink of elimination. The offense didn’t do much against Garrett Crochet and Aroldis Chapman in Game 1 Tuesday, the bullpen blew a lead (surprise!), and now the Yankees have to win two straight games against a team they have beaten once in their last 10 tries in October. The Red Sox are 3-0 at the new Yankee Stadium in the postseason.

“We are going to show up tomorrow and I expect us to do pretty well,” Aaron Boone said with an undeserved sense of confidence after the Game 1 loss. “… We have been playing these types of games for a while now. We have been playing with a lot on the line seemingly every single day. So tonight was a great baseball game that we just couldn't get that final punch in. We will be ready to go and I expect us to come out and get one tomorrow.”

It’s funny, I laid out four Wild Card Series x-factors prior to Game 1, and every single one was answered in the negative. Every single one! To recap:

• Fifth time’s a charm against Crochet? lol no. He was dominant. He retired 17 straight Yankees after Anthony Volpe’s home run, and only three of the 17 hit the ball out of the infield.

• Red Sox vs. Judge’s arm. Nick Sogard’s single became a hustle double in the seventh. Judge’s throw was 73.2 mph, about his average since returning from the flexor strain. It was 90.4 mph before the injury. Sogard later scored the game-winning run.

• Boston’s lefty heavy bullpen. Ben Rice never got into Game 1 and it came down to Chapman against Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham in the ninth. You know how it went.

• Which bullpen will show up? The bad one. Luke Weaver did not retire a batter and the trouble started when he couldn’t put Ceddanne Rafaela away after getting ahead in the count 0-2. He walked him on 11 pitches. David Bednar coughed up an insurance run too.

I don’t understand the Jazz thing. Amed Rosario started against Crochet, which I get, then Boone put Chisholm in for defense (?) after Rosario made the final out of the seventh. Rather than wait for a spot to strategically pinch-hit Jazz, Boone put him in the game for defense. The Yankees don’t want Chisholm to face elite lefties, apparently, and they could’ve had Rosario against Chapman in the ninth, but nope.

First and foremost, you’re down a run in the eighth inning. You have to chase offense. Secondly, you know the Red Sox have a lefty heavy bullpen and a lefty closer (Boone knows that, right?), and Rosario's righty bat still could've been useful. You have to do what gives you the best chance to score runs. Keeping Rosario in the game until an at-bat against a righty popped up was the move. Boone took a strategic pinch-hit with Jazz off the table at a time when offense had to be the priority.

“I guess, yeah,” Chisholm said when asked if he was surprised he was out of the lineup. He answered the question with his back turned to the reporters, which really isn’t a big deal, but some folks out there will get bent out of shape and try to make into something. It’ll blow over by time you read this.

Max Fried bent but did not break in the middle innings, and as I watched the game unfold in front of me, I was fine with taking him out when he came out. Fried was at 102 pitches and his velocity was starting to dip. But yeah, thinking more about it, pushing him was the move. It was the bottom of the lineup and the bullpen has been shaky. If there was ever a time to push your ace, that was it.

Of course, if Weaver could get through the 8-9 hitters, no one cares about Fried coming out. This year, you can tell pretty much right away when Weaver doesn’t have it, and Rafaela putting up that at-bat was a bad, bad sign. That dude swings at everything (fifth highest chase rate in baseball) and Weaver had nothing to put him away. Not all blown saves are created equal, but Weaver now has four blown saves the last two postseasons. That’s … a lot.

"That's a real tough one to swallow when you know you had him in an advantage count,” Weaver said about the Rafaela at-bat.

Ultimately, the Yankees lost because they scored one (1) run. Crochet is an A+ pitcher who had an A+ night. There were some duds along the way, but I thought the at-bats were largely good against him. The Yankees just didn’t get any results because not many hitters get results against Crochet. At least he won’t pitch again this series. Not unless he goes 2001 Randy Johnson and comes out of the bullpen the day after a start.

The Yankees will now try to do something that has never been done before: Come back to win the Wild Card Series after losing Game 1*. The Game 1 winner is 12-0 in the three years of the Wild Card Series. Only two Game 1 losers even forced a Game 3: Mets vs. Padres in 2022 and Brewers vs. Mets in 2024. Why can’t the Yankees do it? Other than their unmatched ability to crack under pressure?

* The Athletics and Padres came back to win their Wild Card Series after losing Game 1 in 2020, which I’m not counting because 2020 doesn't count. Since the postseason permanently expanded to 12 teams, the Game 1 winner has won every Wild Card Series.

What the Yankees have to do in Game 2 is pretty straight forward. Get a great start from Carlos Rodón (and maybe don’t rush to the bullpen if he’s pitching well and the bottom of the order is coming up) and actually sustain some offense. No more 17 in row retired, please. Presumably Chisholm and Rice will be in the lineup. Scratch out some runs, get good innings from Rodón, then hang on for dear life when the bullpen swings open. Sounds like a plan.

Miscellany

October G went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and a double play, and man, he juuust missed some pitches. Stanton took some good rips against pitches in the zone and either fouled them away, put them on the ground, or whiffed.

I didn’t think that was one of those “Stanton looks like he’s never swung a bat before” games. He had some pitches to do something with, and didn’t … Is October Volpe a thing? He had a good postseason last year and went 2-for-3 with the home run (video) and a stolen base in Game 1. Or really he coaxed a balk out of Chapman by bouncing around at first base. Crochet missed his spot badly on the home run …

… and Volpe was able to porch it. Or was he? Statcast says it would have been a home run in every park except Fenway Park. That surprised me. Seemed like a classic porch job live … I said I didn’t like Paul Goldschmidt in the starting lineup, even against a lefty, so of course he had two hits plus another ball driven to the warning track. You have to jinx these things into existence. It’s what championship bloggers do … Six walks (three by Fried, three by the bullpen) is entirely too many. The Yankees made things hard on themselves with walks too often in August and September, and it carried over into October. I guess technically Tuesday was September, but you know what I mean. In a close postseason game, six walks is just way too many … And finally, Willie Randolph threw out the ceremonial first pitch. I have no idea who it will be for Game 2, but I’m waiting for the day Brett Gardner shows up. Gardner and his family have had a tough year, so I certainly understand staying at home, but I and I think every Yankees fan would like to show the guy some love soon.

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