August 19th, 2025: Fried, Stolen Bases, August Trade Targets, Prospects

On this date in 1997, the Yankees got blown out by the Angels (box score), and Wade Boggs threw the eighth inning. He broke out his famed knuckleball (video). The story for years was that Boggs had a great knuckleball and would torment his teammates playing catch, and we finally saw it in action. He walked one and struck out one in a scoreless inning. That was back when position players pitching was the ultimate humiliation. Now it’s almost a strategy. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. It wasn’t always pretty and it wasn’t easy at any point, but the Yankees took care of business against a bad Cardinals team this past weekend. The three-game sweep gave them back-to-back series wins for the first time since the Colorado and Anaheim series in late May. And because the Braves swept the Guardians, the Yankees have breathing room in the Wild Card race for the first time in a while.

These were the Wild Card standings entering Monday’s action (the Guardians are on the West Coast and I didn’t feel like waiting for their game to end to update this):

1. Red Sox: 68-57 (+0.5 GB)
2. Mariners: 68-57 (+0.5 GB)
3. Yankees: 67-57
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4. Guardians: 63-60 (3.5 GB)
5. Rangers: 62-63 (5.5 GB)

In one weekend the Yankees went from trying to hold off the Guardians to being in the mix for the top Wild Card spot. Good reminder that things can change very quickly (both good and bad) when the races are this close. This weekend’s four-game series with the Red Sox has suddenly become very important. It didn’t look like that would be the case at this time last week. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

The Max Fried problem

Another bad start from Max Fried on Saturday: 5 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 HR. The last homer by Nolan Gorman was bad in terms of the scoreboard, though I can’t give Fried too much grief about it. Gorman somehow got to a curveball that was comfortably off the plate inside. Sometimes you just get beat:

Fried has now allowed at least four runs in six straight starts and seven of his last eight starts. He had a 1.92 ERA (2.78 FIP) and averaged 6.4 innings in his first 17 starts. In his last eight starts, it’s a 6.80 ERA (4.60 FIP) and 5.1 innings per start. Some regression was expected. Almost no pitcher is 1.92 ERA good, but Fried has been legit terrible for close to two months. Mediocrity would be a big improvement.

“I definitely have to change something and change it up quick,” Fried said after Saturday’s game (video). “ … Just haven’t been sharp. Haven’t had the good results. When you gotta go out there and have good outings, I haven’t been able to do that. I’m working hard in between to try to make the best adjustments I can. They haven’t really been showing, but we’re here to win games. Really fortunate today that they put up 12 runs to be able to cover me, but I know going forward, I gotta be way better.”

In addition to their usual changeup tweaking, the Yankees also had Fried really lean into his cutter this season. It’s his most used pitch! He’s thrown it 31% of the time (almost exclusively to righties) after throwing it roughly 5% of the time from 2023-24, and not at all from 2020-22. That cutter was so crucial to Fried’s early season success. Now it’s getting blasted:

• April through June: .184 AVG and .279 SLG (6.3% barrel rate)

• Since July 1st: .291 AVG and .509 SLG (10.2% barrel rate)

Masyn Winn’s three-run homer came on a 1-1 cutter that was so bad Fried might as well have put it on a tee. His command of the pitch has been poor, with a lot of misses inside to righties in particular. In fact, Fried’s fastball command in general is off too. He’s not throwing as many strikes with his four-seamer and sinker. Lance Brozdowski wrote about Fried’s struggles before his St. Louis start:

His K-BB against righties is down from 20% from April-June to 3% since July 1. There isn’t much that jumps out from a shape or usage standpoint, but Fried’s strike rate is down from 65% to 59% in these two windows of time, his chase and whiff have both waned, and his barrel rate is up from 5% to 9%. I think something mechanical is off here, or at least something influencing the placement of his four-seam and sinker to righties. Both of these pitches have taken a zone-rate hit greater than 10 percentage points (that’s a lot) … They’re both being located, I would say unintentionally, more to his arm-side, up-and-away from righties.

Like the cutter, Fried has upped his sweeper usage this year, going from about 5% from 2023-24 to 11% this year, so more than double. To put it another way, Fried has gone from 10% cutters/sweepers the last two years to 42% this year. You sometimes hear that guys lose feel for their four-seamer when they start throwing a cutter because they get on the side of the ball more rather than behind it. 

Could it be that Fried is cutting/sweeping the ball so much now that his four-seamer (and sinker) command is suffering too? Throw in the blister and that’s yet another issue. Poor four-seam/sinker command might not be as much of a problem if Fried’s cutter was still effective, but it’s getting hammered. Everything starts with fastball command and Fried doesn’t have it right now. Not with anything. The four-seamer, sinker, or cutter.

It’s easy to say Fried should just stop throwing his cutter. He’s had plenty of success without it in the past, and it’s not like he’s lacking weapons. Fried’s thrown six pitches at least 10% of the time this year (plus a seventh 2% of the time). Shelve the cutter, get the four-seamer and sinker back to where they need to be, then maybe you can reintroduce the cutter again later. Easy fix, right? If only. It’s never that easy.

The good news is Fried’s pitch shapes (spin, movement, velocity, etc.) have held steady all year, even around the blister. Everyone insists the blister is a non-issue. I’ll take them at their word. Fried’s issue is command, not the quality of his stuff, and unless he’s pitching through a separate injury we don’t know about (always possible), then it’s a mechanical problem. I don’t know what, exactly, but mechanical.

Fried had a stretch where he retired 11 of 12 Saturday immediately after Winn’s homer and the one baserunner was an infield single. 10 of those 12 batters either struck out or put the ball on the ground. In an otherwise poor start, there was a glimpse of the good Fried. The Gorman homer was ridiculous. He got to a curveball that was 6.9 inches off the corner, per Statcast. The Jordan Walker double before that was a mistake cutter. It was, for all intents and purposes, a 14-batter stretch with one mistake to end Fried’s outing.

Grasping at straws? Yes, maybe. The bottom line is Fried needs to be better. His cutter has been junk and his command with just about everything (especially his fastballs) has been poor the last few weeks. The Yankees can (probably) reach the postseason with Fried pitching like this. It will be tough, but it’s doable. They won’t go anywhere in October without an effective Fried though. Getting on track is a must.

“Even the elite level pitchers go through things like this at times. He’ll get there. He’ll get through it,” Aaron Boone said Saturday (video). “There’s nothing wrong with him. Physically, he’s in a good spot. Stuff’s there. It’s just another level of execution. You’re kind of going through it a little bit, so you’re mentally fighting yourself. There’s no alarming, ‘Oh his stuff’s down,’ or, ‘What’s wrong with this?’ He’s too good to not get through it.”

The Yankees are running again

Now that he’s a Yankee, I have officially transitioned from “I hate José Caballero” to “I’m glad the Yankees have José Caballero.” He started all three games against the Cardinals, played a nifty right field in the first two, and went 5-for-11 (.455) with four stolen bases. I don’t want to overdo it, Caballero can get exposed with too much playing time, but he started only two of his first 12 games as a Yankee. That’s not enough. Give him a start a series and go from there.

“I’ve yelled at him when he was an opponent,” Boone told Randy Miller about Caballero. “He knows that. Yeah, I couldn’t stand him playing against him, and now he’s turning into one of my favorite players.”

Caballero was not the only Yankee to run in St. Louis. The Yankees stole nine bases over the weekend, and they’ve been on a stolen base kick lately. 32 steals in their last 20 games! That’s after 32 steals in their previous 60 games. Those 32 steals in the last 20 games represent 33% of their season total in 16% of their games. The last time the Yankees stole 32 bases in a 20-game span was 2011. They hadn’t stolen even 22 bases in a 20-game span since 2013 before this.

The Yankees have run into a few poor-throwing catchers lately (Mickey Gasper, Yohel Pozo, etc.), but it can’t just be that, right? It’s not just Caballero either. He didn’t play much before this past weekend. This seems like a concerted effort to use the team’s speed more. I definitely complained about the Yankees not running more at some point. I don’t remember when, but I did. Starting with Jazz Chisholm Jr., they added all this speed and athleticism over the last 13 months, but they weren’t using it. Now they are.

I’m not asking the Yankees to play 1980s baseball, but there is speed on this team now, so use it! Home runs will always be their thing. Their ballpark necessitates it. The Yankees do have the personnel to make things happen in other ways now though. For whatever reason, they didn’t run much earlier this year. I’m hopeful this past weekend and these last 20 games are a sign the Yankees will push the envelope a little more. There are bases out there to be had.

Miscellany

Cody Bellinger is in the middle of a terrible slump (22 wRC+ in August), but even when he’s not hitting, he does something to help his team win. Friday’s 0-for-5 came with a 3-6-3 double play and a great scoop at first base, and a game-ending shoestring catch in left field (videos). He then drove in the game-tying run with a sac fly and the go-ahead run(s) with a ground ball that was misplayed Sunday. Those weren’t hits, but Bellinger was rewarded for putting the ball in play. I have greatly enjoyed the Bellinger experience this season … Aaron Judge is getting there. He doubled and homered Saturday, and hit another ball that would have been out in a few parks Sunday (videos). Judge is close. That molten hot streak is coming soon (I hope) … Saturday’s home crossed Busch Stadium off the list for Judge. He’s now homered in every active park except Nationals Park, Wrigley Field, and George M. Steinbrenner Field, and that last one doesn’t count. Also, Judge has now homered against the 29 non-Yankees teams. The Cardinals were last on the list … Will Warren labored Saturday (4.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 3 K) and I’m not sure why Boone warmed up Tim Hill if he wasn’t use him against Lars Nootbaar and Alex Burleson in that fifth inning (both singled off Warren), but whatever, the Yankees won the game. Warren’s been so good lately. He’s allowed a clunker now and then. 

Injury updates

Judge (flexor) has stretched his throwing out to 150 feet. He still hasn’t thrown to the bases though, which means his return to the outfield is not imminent. The song and dance with Giancarlo Stanton in right field will continue … Speaking of, Stanton said he was slow to recover after playing three straight games in the field last week, hence three days on the bench in St. Louis (he did pinch-walk during that ninth inning rally Sunday). The Yankees swept the series, so it all worked out. Hopefully Stanton (or Judge) can return to the outfield soon. As in tonight … Fernando Cruz (oblique) got tagged for a homer and two runs in his second rehab appearance Sunday. He’s scheduled to make another rehab appearance Tuesday, and if that goes well, he could be activated later this week … Jonathan Loáisiga (back) started a rehab assignment with Scranton on Sunday. He allowed a single and a walk in a scoreless inning. I’m not sure how the Yankees will fit Cruz, Loáisiga, and Ryan Yarbrough back onto the roster, but the Yankees have had an absurd run of guys getting hurt right as other guys come back this year (Marcus Stroman for Clarke Schmidt, Oswaldo Cabrera for DJ LeMahieu, Yarbrough for Luke Weaver, Austin Slater for Judge), so let’s worry about it later … And just FYI: J.C. Escarra was optioned to Triple-A on Monday. That's a pretty good sign Amed Rosario (collarbone) will be back Tuesday. No rehab assignment for him.

Up next

Two series against AL East rivals. The bad news is the Yankees are 14-19 against the AL East this year. The good news is they are 3-1 in their last four games within the division, and 4-2 in their last six. Hey, the turnaround has to start somewhere, right? Here’s what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:

• Tuesday at Rays: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Shane Baz (7:30pm ET on YES)

• Wednesday at Rays: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen (7:30pm ET on YES)

• Thursday vs. Red Sox: TBA vs. TBA (7pm ET on FOX)

A midweek FOX game? What did we do to deserve this? That Red Sox series is one of those “four games on four different networks” series. Thursday is FOX, Friday is Amazon, Saturday is YES, and Sunday is ESPN. Let’s not worry about the Red Sox yet though. The Yankees have two games with the Rays first, and although Tampa has fallen out of the race (15-29 in their last 44 games), they’re always a headache.

2. Scouting the Market: Post-Deadline Targets. The trade deadline has come and gone but it is still possible to add players from outside the organization, including making trades. You can always sign free agents and make waiver claims. As for players eligible to be traded after the deadline, they have to meet this criteria (I wrote more about this at CBS):

• Signed to a minor league contract.

• Have not been on a 40-man roster at any point in 2025.

• Have not been on the MLB injured list at any point in 2025.

Technically, the Yankees could trade Spencer Jones. They won’t, but they could. Last summer the Royals traded for Yuli Gurriel on Aug. 31st. He had been in Triple-A with the Braves. Gurriel played a bunch in September and started all six of Kansas City’s postseason games. He flew out to Aaron Judge to end their season in Game 4 of the ALDS. I doubt any Royals fans saw that coming on Aug. 30th.

The old August waiver trade system went away in 2019. Since then, the Yankees have been moderately active adding players in August. Their most notable August pickup is claiming Cory Gearrin as a salary dump from the Mariners in 2019. He made 18 appearances down the stretch and 13 were scoreless. Last year the Yankees claimed Duke Ellis on Aug. 26th. He was on the ALDS roster as a pinch-runner.

You’re not going to add a difference-maker in August. The best you’re going to add is a sixth or seventh inning reliever or platoon bat, but there are potential upgrades out there to be made. With that in mind, here are a few players who either are available right now or could be available at some point this month, and may or may not make sense for the Yankees.

LHP Jalen Beeks, Diamondbacks

2025 stats: 4.15 ERA (4.02 FIP), 20.8 K%, 9.1 BB%, 48.5 GB% in 47.2 IP
Contract status: $1.25M in 2025

I wrote about Beeks as a trade target before the deadline. Obviously the D’Backs did not trade him as part of their sell-off. Beeks, 32, came off the injured list (back inflammation) the day after the deadline and has looked okay-ish since returning. Beeks could be a bat-missing complement to Tim Hill (28.9 K% vs. LHB). The Yankees may already have that in Brent Headrick, though Beeks represents a more veteran option.

The D’Backs cared enough about shedding payroll that they saved $2M by attaching Jordan Montgomery to actual trade chip Shelby Miller at the deadline. Beeks is owed about $275,000 the rest of the season. That isn’t much in the baseball world, but it is a lot of money in the real world. Arizona is out of the race and Beeks will be a free agent in a few weeks. Might as well put him on waivers and unload the money.

UTIL Jon Berti, free agent

2025 stats: .210/.262/.230 (42 wRC+) with 0 HR, 11 SB, 20.6 K%, 4.7 BB% in 107 PA
Contract status: Prorated league minimum in 2025

I was going to joke that the Cubs got the Yankees’ Jon Berti experience (ineffective when not injured), but it turns out he’s been healthy all season. He just didn’t perform at all. Chicago DFAed Berti last week and he’s now a free agent. He hasn’t hit lefties since 2023 (the only year he hit period) and his defense and speed have slipped at age 35. Berti’s days as a useful role player appear over. I think the only way he makes sense for the Yankees is if Amed Rosario has a setback/suffers another injury. Berti is freely available though. You could sign him today and have him in uniform tomorrow.

LHP Danny Coulombe and LHP Hoby Milner, Rangers

Coulombe’s 2025 stats: 1.96 ERA (2.41 FIP), 26.4 K%, 8.8 BB%, 43.0 GB% in 36.2 IP
Coulombe’s contract status: $3M in 2025

Milner’s 2025 stats: 2.44 ERA (2.66 FIP), 22.1 K%, 7.2 BB%, 52.5 GB% in 59 IP
Milner’s contract status: $2.5M in 2025

The Rangers fell victim to bad timing at the trade deadline. They had an 85 wRC+ in April, a 73 wRC+ in May, a 92 wRC+ in June, and then a 109 wRC+ in July. GM Chris Young took that 109 wRC+ to mean his team had turned the corner, so he bought at the deadline (Coulombe, Merrill Kelly, etc.). The offense went back to 94 wRC+ in August and Texas is 5-10 since the deadline. They’re 5.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and it’s really 6.5 games because the Yankees, the third Wild Card team, have the tiebreaker.

Over the weekend Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported the Rangers put Jon Gray on waivers last week. He cleared, which is not surprising given his $13M salary and poor performance (against everyone but the Yankees, apparently). Waiving Gray shows Texas wants to subtract. They’re right up against the $241M luxury tax threshold, and with their season circling the drain, I’m guessing they want to make sure they stay under. Coulombe and Milner aren’t making much, but every dollar they can save against the threshold helps.

I wrote about Coulombe before the deadline. He’s a bat-missing lefty who is also effective against righties, something Hill is not. Milner is similar to Hill as a ground ball guy. I’m not sure the Yankees need another one of those. Coulombe would be the guy to get. The Yankees are near the bottom of the waiver order among contenders. They might actually be able to snag Coulombe or anyone else they want rather than have to watch helplessly as a team with a worse record claims them first.

IF Paul DeJong, Nationals

2025 stats: .254/.307/.452 (109 wRC+), 6 HR, 4 SB, 27.7 K%, 6.6 BB% in 137 PA
Contract status: $1M in 2025

Now 32, DeJong missed close to three months with facial fractures after being hit by a pitch. He returned last month and is doing what he always does, which is hit lefties (138 wRC+) and reliably catch the ball. Apparently the Nationals love him. He’s taken on a mentorship role with their young players, so they might keep him the rest of the season. If they waive him though, and Rosario has more injury trouble, then sure, DeJong would make sense for the Yankees as a righty bench bat. They’ve had interest in him at various points in the past, including this past offseason.

LHP Josh Fleming, Mariners

2025 stats: 3.97 ERA (5.29 FIP), 12.6 K%, 8.1 BB%, 60.0 GB% in 65.2 IP in Triple-A
Contract status: Minor league deal (salary unknown)

After spending 15 minutes or so scrolling through Triple-A rosters and leaderboards, Fleming is the most recognizable name among trade-eligible players. Still only 29, Fleming is a few years removed from his peak as an interesting dude with the Rays. Never a big strikeout guy, he completely stopped missing bats a few years ago, and has gone all-in on ground balls. Fleming has held lefties to a .274 SLG in Triple-A. I would rather stick with Headrick. To me, Fleming is an emergency type. He’s someone you bring in if Headrick and Hill get hurt, and you come up on empty on waivers. Nothing more.

OF Tommy Pham, Pirates

2025 stats: .259/.331/.369 (94 wRC+), 6 HR, 4 SB, 22.3 K%, 9.9 BB% in 332 PA
Contract status: $4.025M in 2025

Pham was an August waiver guy last year. The Royals claimed him on Aug. 31st and you may remember him being a (pun intended) royal pain in the ass in the ALDS: 5-for-11 (.455) with a steal. His slash line is being dragged down by a dreadful start:

• April and May: .207/.280/.237 (45 wRC+)

• Since June 1st: .304/.374/.481 (134 wRC+)

Pham is not hitting lefties like he has in the past, even lately (77 wRC+ vs. LHP since June 1st), so you would have to bet on the track record there. His defense is just passable at age 37. Austin Slater will be out a while. At least another few weeks. Pham could fill that righty bench outfielder role until Slater returns, at which point the Yankees could pick whichever one they like more.

FanGraphs has the Pirates’ payroll at $85.8M right now. Putting Pham on waivers today would chop close to $900,000 off that already meager total. Their payroll is already so low that the MLBPA might get on their backs (again) about revenue sharing spending. The Pirates might keep Pham just to avoid that. When in doubt, bet on the Pirates being cheap. I bet Pham hits waivers at some point in the next two weeks.

* * *

Two years ago the Angels had a mass waiver exodus in August (Lucas Giolito, Dominic Leone, Reynaldo López, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe) to cut payroll, and there was concern that would become the norm. That didn’t happen last year, thankfully, and it doesn’t look like it will this year either. The best you’re going to do in the post-deadline market these days are guys like Beeks, Coulombe, and Pham. That time to add players who would really move the needle is over. This is a higher end scrap heap period, and sometimes that's all you need.

(I had a Nate Lowe blurb written before he signed with the Red Sox. That’s in the Content Graveyard if you’re that interested in reading about Nate Lowe.)

3. Prospect thoughts. The post-draft/trade deadline farm system rankings are out. Baseball America (subs. req’d) has the Yankees at No. 17 and MLB Pipeline has them at No. 22. I feel like the Yankees are in the 17-22 range constantly, and yet they always have prospects to trade at the deadline, and they’ve added a young position player to the lineup each of the last three years (Anthony Volpe in 2023, Austin Wells in 2024, Jasson Domínguez and Ben Rice in 2025). Eh, whatever. At the end of the day, prospect and farm system rankings are meaningless. They're just something to argue about. Here are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Jones joins 30-homer club

Saturday was an important date on the baseball calendar. It marked 44 days to the end of the regular season, so teams can now call up prospects and they would not exceed the 45-day service time limit for rookie-eligibility. That allows them to retain Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick eligibility next year. Orioles C Samuel Basallo and OF Dylan Beavers, and Mets RHP Nolan McLean, were among the touted prospects summoned Saturday.

The Yankees can call up OF Spencer Jones at any time now and have him retain PPI pick eligibility next year (as long as he doesn’t exceed the 130 at-bat rookie limit), not that I expect it to happen. Jones has had a tough August (.154/.250/.215 and 29 wRC+), though he’s still hitting .284/.381/.606 (169 wRC+) overall this year, and he leads the minors in home runs. Here’s the minor league home run leaderboard:

1. Spencer Jones, Yankees: 30 HR in 386 PA
2. Bob Seymour, Rays: 30 HR in 443 PA
3. Ryan Ward, Dodgers: 29 HR in 530 PA
4. Laz Montes, Mariners: 28 HR in 479 PA
5. Several tied with 24 HR

Hitting 30 homers in the minors is uncommon. From 2021-24, there were only 56 30-homer seasons in the minors, and the majority were by Quad-A mashers like Trey Cabbage, Bobby Dalbec, and Jason Vosler, and/or in the hitter happy Pacific Coast League. Only a few actual prospects get to 30 homers each year.

Jones is the first Yankees’ minor leaguer with a 30-homer season since 1B Dermis García hit 31 in 2021. He has a shot to become the system’s first 40-homer guy since Marv Throneberry hit 40 in 1957. Jones must hit 10 homers in Scranton’s final 32 games to get to 40, which is doable. He did go deep 10 times in a 12-game span a few weeks ago, remember. A 40-homer season is in play.

The August slump has come with a lot of swing and miss (21.0% swinging strike rate), which is what it will look like when Jones slumps. I was talking to a writer pal of mine recently about guys like Nick Kurtz and Kyle Stowers, who swing and miss a ton but are also high-end performers in the big leagues. Is it time to update our priors about what an acceptable whiff rate is? It might be, yeah.

For now, Jones is going through his first rough patch in Triple-A, which was bound to happen. Just hope it doesn't last long. If the Yankees are planning to call him up at some point, they can do so now without worrying about next year’s PPI eligibility. The question is though, if there’s barely enough room in the outfield for Domínguez right now, how does Jones fit in? I don’t think he does yet.

(Jones hit a 109.5 mph double Sunday that was Stantonian as a line drive that looked like it never got higher than about 15 feet off the ground (video). Stupid, stupid power.)

Lewis goes 20/20

Only two players in Division I went 20/20 last spring: UNC OF Vance Honeycutt (28 HR and 28 SB), who was the No. 22 overall pick (Orioles), and Queens OF Dillon Lewis. Lewis had 22 homers and 20 steals and was the Yankees’ 13th round pick. He has another 20/20 under his belt this year. Lewis is hitting .249/.322/.474 (126 wRC+) with 20 homers and 23 steals in 25 attempts at the two Single-A levels.

The 22-year-old Lewis is more than a compiler. He’s a legit prospect. At the time of his promotion Lewis led the Low-A Florida State League with a 109.3 mph 90th percentile exit velocity (by 1.3 mph!), and his contact skills are adequate. He’s running a 23.4 K% and 13.1% swinging strike this year, numbers that are a bit worse than average but hardly catastrophic, especially for a dude running these exit velos.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB Pipeline both moved Lewis into their top 30 Yankees prospects even before the system was thinned out at the trade deadline. Here is part of BA’s scouting report:

Lewis’ calling card is a combination of power and speed that tends to draw eyeballs from evaluators. He hits the ball extremely hard—his 90th percentile and max exit velocities are rivaled internally only by more famous power brokers like Spencer Jones and Everson Pereira—and can motor around the bases as well. There’s a fair amount of swing and miss in Lewis’ game, though the Yankees attribute those elevated rates to his concerted effort to get the ball in the air more often so his hard contact can result in line drives and fly balls. He’s a fringy outfield defender with a fringy arm that fits best in left field … Lewis’ tool set is tantalizing but will take plenty of patience. If he reaches his ceiling, he could be a second-division regular who finds himself on highlight reels on a fairly regular basis.

It’s a Pereira Lite skill set given Pereira’s superior defense, though Pereira has not once, at any level, made contact like Lewis this year. Pereira’s career bests are a 27.6 K% in 2021 and a 16.2% swinging strike rate in 2023. Lewis is not the defender Pereira is, but, at least through 448 plate appearances in his first full pro season, he’s getting the bat on the ball much more than Pereira did even at his best.

For a 13th round pick, Lewis is a pretty interesting player. He’s flawed, for sure, and that’s why he was a 13th rounder and not a 3rd rounder. Double-A next season will be a good challenge for him. That’s when we’ll really find out about Lewis and whether his power plays at the next level. 

Kilby and Kent debut

The nine position players the Yankees selected in last month’s draft have all made their pro debuts. None of the 10 pitches have yet and don’t expect any of them to debut until next year. It is standard practice (with many teams, not just the Yankees) to hold drafted pitchers out of games and send them to Tampa for pitching lab work. The cool kids call it a “deload” program. (Here is my draft recap.)

I’m not gonna go through every draftee’s pro debut, though I do want to note that 1st rounder SS Dax Kilby is 4-for-22 (.182) with two walks and only one strikeout with Low-A Tampa. The BABIP luck will turn eventually. Statcast has him with a few 108 mph exit velocities, which is pretty darn good for his age group. Kilby has played five games at short and one at DH.

It is kinda nuts that an 18-year-old who was playing high school ball a few weeks ago is in Low-A, but there’s nowhere else to send him. The Florida Complex League season ended weeks ago and the short season leagues went away when MLB contracted the minors. Either Kilby and other high school picks go to Low-A, or they don’t play. So, Low-A it is. 

Also, 2nd rounder SS Kaeden Kent is going through it with High-A Hudson Valley. Jeff’s son is 3-for-25 (.086) with seven strikeouts, though he hit his first homer over the weekend (video). Jumping straight from college to High-A is a tough assignment, but again, where else is he supposed to play? Back in the day Kilby would be rookie ball and Kent would be in Short Season Staten Island. You can’t read much into pro debuts these days. These guys are all at age inappropriate levels. It is what it is.

Notable releases

Teams only get 165 minor league contract "slots" these days, so when a draft pick signs, someone else has to get released to make room. Here are a few notables who were let go in recent weeks:

OF Anthony Hall: The 2022 fourth rounder hurt his wrist in his first pro at-bat, hurt it again that offseason, then had surgery. Hall, 24, never showed the kinda power he had at Oregon in pro ball. He slashed .234/.333/.358 (97 wRC+) with 13 homers and 27.2 K% in 727 career plate appearances, and never got out of Single-A. I had Hall as the No. 25 prospect in the system back in 2023.

1B/3B Kiko Romero: Professional baseball is hard: Romero hit .345/.441/.724 with 21 homers his draft year at Arizona State and then .213/.351/.371 (111 wRC+) with 12 homers in parts of three minor league seasons. That 111 wRC+ came with a lot of swing and miss (30.1 K% and 16.7% swinging strikes) and not much defensive value. Romero was a seventh round pick in 2023. I’m mentioning him only because he had a great bat flip last year.

IF Alex Vargas: Vargas, 23, was in the system so long that the Yankees signed him with the international bonus pool money they received in the Adam Warren trade with the Mariners. He got a $2.5M bonus in July 2018. Vargas peaked as my No. 9 prospect in 2022 because he was loaded with tools and athleticism, but those tools never turned into baseball skills. Vargas hit .225/.286/.351 (80 wRC+) in close to 1,900 plate appearances, and topped out in Double-A.

Injury updates

RHP Bryce Cunningham, last year’s second round pick, is back following a two-month absence. I’m not sure if it was the same shoulder issue that sidelined him for two weeks in late May or something else. Cunningham went 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 0 K on 30 pitches in his first game back, so he’s still building up. He seems like a candidate to make up lost innings in the Arizona Fall League … C-turned-RHP Antonio Gomez was placed on the injured list last week. He pitched four times: 2.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 4 K while hitting 100 mph several times. I have no idea if this is true, but anecdotally, it seems like guys who convert to pitching mid-season get hurt a lot, like they do too much too soon. Then again, I have no idea what’s wrong with Gomez. It might not be arm-related … RHP Eric Reyzelman, my No. 20 prospect, has been on the Triple-A injured list since Aug. 6th. I forgot to mention it. I guess this isn’t too surprising. He’s walked 42 batters in 42 innings, and his stuff is way down. Reyzelman had Tommy John surgery in college and three back surgeries from 2022-23.

Miscellany

RHP Ben Hess got the bump up to Double-A earlier this month and he was great Sunday: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K (video). He’s had some issues with walks (11.6 BB%), though he hadn’t walked more than two batters in any of his previous six starts prior to Sunday. The overall 32.3 K% and 13.2% swinging strike rate plays though … RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz was promoted to Double-A a few weeks before Hess. He had a tough one Saturday (4 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 4BB, 8 K), but he went at least six scoreless innings in each of his three previous starts. ERC has had an incredible season overall: 2.18 ERA (2.58 FIP) with 28.1 K% and 10.1 BB% in 119.2 innings. Those 119.2 innings are well above the career high 89.2 innings he threw last year. He’s got 4-5 starts remaining. It's not a lock that the Yankees will shut ERC down. Just don't be surprised if it happens … The Yankees drafted LHP Xavier Rivas, last year’s 16th rounder, even though he missed his entire draft year at Mississippi with Tommy John surgery. He made his pro debut in early May and has a 3.80 ERA (3.97 FIP) with 29.1 K% and 13.9 BB% in 68.2 innings split between the two Single-A levels. On Friday, Rivas fanned 12 in seven innings of one-run ball (video). The walks can be chalked up to the usual post-Tommy John control issues, and Statcast had him throwing four pitches at least 20% of time with Tampa: low-90s four-seamer and sinker, a slider, and a really low spin changeup (low spin is good on changeups). Consider this a rehab year for Rivas. He’s an interesting dude who could make a name for himself in 2026, as he gets further away from elbow reconstruction … Guy having a great year: OF Marshall Toole, last year’s 15th round pick. He’s slashing .299/.402/.486 (149 wRC+) with 38 steals in 43 attempts with Low-A Tampa. Minimal power (five homers) and a college guy who is a year older than the average Florida State League player, so don’t make too much of it, but Toole is having himself a nice season … And finally, SS Roderick Arias is probably still a top 30 prospect in the system given his age (20), his tools, and the trade deadline subtractions, but yeesh: .208/.323/.320 (89 wRC+) with 29.4 K% while repeating Low-A. He hit .233/.335/.393 (111 wRC+) with 31.0 K% with Tampa last season. He’s also down ~1 mph on all the exit velocity markers (average, max, etc.) Pretty bad. Pretty, pretty bad.

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