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August 8th, 2025: Rangers Series, Judge, Bullpen, Mailbag

One of my all-time favorite comebacks happened on this date in 2000. The Yankees went into the ninth inning down 3-2 to the Athletics. Jason Isringhausen’s first pitch: Bernie Williams game-tying homer. Jason Isringhausen’s second pitch: David Justice walk-off homer. Two pitches, two homers. Here’s the video and here’s the box score. Usually these things feel like it just happened last year, but nah, this one definitely feels like it was 25 years ago. Here’s a thing about the Yankees’ poor play they asked me to write at CBS and here is today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. Congrats to the 2025 Yankees, who have more five-game losing streaks in the last two months (three) than they did from 2022-24 (two). This is the first time the Yankees have had three five-game losing streaks in one season since 2015. Before that, it was 2013. Not the best omen. At least they got out of Texas with one win. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.

The biggest win of 2025

It is not a stretch to call Wednesday the biggest win of the season. Not only because it salvaged the series (and the entire road trip). It also clinched the season series and thus the tiebreaker over the Rangers, and kept the Yankees in the third Wild Card spot. There were two possible outcomes Wednesday:

I say the Rangers likely would’ve gotten the tiebreaker because the season series would have been tied, which kicks the tiebreaker down to record within the division. The Yankees have stunk against the AL East (14-19), but the Rangers are only 18-22 against the AL West, so there’s a chance the Yankee could have won that tiebreaker. Unlikely, but possible. Whatever. It doesn’t matter now.

Point is though, that’s a four-game swing in one afternoon! Instead of 1.5 games back, the Yankees are 2.5 games up on Texas. Of course, we have to worry about the Guardians now too. They’ve won 19 of their last 26 games and are suddenly only 1.5 games behind the Yankees. Here are the AL Wild Card standings with seven weeks plus a weekend remaining in the regular season:

1. Red Sox: 64-52 (+2.5 GB)
2. Mariners: 63-53 (+1.5 GB)
3. Yankees: 61-54
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4. Guardians: 59-54 (1.5 GB)
5. Rangers: 60-56 (1.5 GB)
6. Royals: 57-58 (4 GB)

The Guardians likely have the tiebreaker over the Yankees for the same reason the Rangers likely would have had it. The season series is over and tied, and the Guardians have kicked the crap out of the AL Central (20-12). So really, the Yankees are only a half-game up on Cleveland. The Yankees have to finish ahead of them. They have the tiebreaker over the Rangers and Mariners though, so a tie is okay there.

Anyway, using Devin Williams Tuesday after Monday’s blown save was classic Aaron Boone. Demote the struggling closer but still use him in a high leverage situation. In this case, it was the eighth inning of a 0-0 game with the 3-4-5 hitters coming up. Not the softest landing spot, eh? A double (that Jasson Domínguez maybe should have caught), a walk, a walk, and a single later, the Yankees lost. I made a meme:

Fortunately, Williams was unavailable Wednesday, and good gravy, what a performance by David Bednar. A five-out save in a one-run game (video) and the 42 pitches – all high-stress – were the fourth most of his career, and his most since June 2022. Boone went out to pull him with two outs in the ninth, but Bednar talked him into leaving him in the game despite the elevated pitch count.

“I was going to take him out honestly,” Boone admitted (video). “I said, ‘I’m going to take you here,’ and he gave me a look like, ‘No, you’re not.’ I said, ‘Are you sure?’ And he was like, ‘Yeah, let’s go, I got this guy,’ and we rolled with it. That’s a dawg effort right there. I love that mentality.”

The Yankees have tweaked things with Bednar, as most teams do when they pick up a pitcher. Specifically, he has ramped up his splitter usage in his three appearances with the Yankees:

Bednar’s splitter usage jumped from the 18%-ish range earlier this year into the 29% range with the Yankees. It’s only three appearances, so maybe it’s just a blip, but this is what the Yankees do, right? They bring in changeup/splitter guys and have them really lean into it. Please let’s not overthink this. Leave Bednar in the closer’s role until he shows he’s no longer the guy, and put Williams in low leverage. Please and thank you.

Regardless of the closer situation, the starters have to go deeper into games, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón in particular. They’re the veteran co-aces. You can’t expect a quasi-rehabbing Luis Gil and two rookies to chew up innings. The starter has completed six innings three times in the last 21 games, and seven times in those 21 games the starter failed to get through five. Rodón’s gone six innings once in his last six starts. Fried has done it once in his last five. It’s not enough.

The Rangers are the best run prevention team in the sport by a good margin, and Nate Eovaldi has thrown the crap out of the ball the last few weeks, so I’m not up in arms about the offense having a quiet week. Cody Bellinger and especially Jazz Chisholm Jr. snapping out of their recent slumps would be welcome though. Scoring runs hasn’t been much of an issue during his multi-month slide. The run prevention has dragged the Yankees down, both pitching and defense. I’m confident enough in the bats.

It was a bad road trip and a bad series in Texas, but at least the Yankees won that last game and clinched the tiebreaker, which sure looks like it could come in handy. Only the Tigers have an easier remaining schedule among AL teams, which of course means nothing, because these Yankees are fully capable of losing two of three to the White Sox or the torn down Twins. The schedule gods did their part. The Yankees have to get it together, take advantage of that easy on-paper schedule, and bank wins.

"Obviously one game. We gotta dig ourselves out here," Boone said after Wednesday's win (video). "As I've said, it's there for us though. We've gotta go take this thing. I'm steadfast, I believe we have a great run in us, believe in those guys in the room. But as we've been saying kinda of every day, right, we gotta go do it."

Judge returns

The flexor strain cost Aaron Judge the minimum 10 days. He returned Tuesday and is 1-for-6 with a walk in his two games back, and I was surprised he played Wednesday. Judge is limited to DH duty. I figured he would play Tuesday, then rest Wednesday with Giancarlo Stanton at DH. Nope. Stanton, who’s been tearing the cover off the ball lately, sat two straight very important games. Not great!

Judge started his throwing program Wednesday and we’re talking light catch at 60 feet. He wasn’t out there long tossing. The DH-only thing stinks, but what else are the Yankees supposed to do? Leave the best hitter in the world on the injured list until he’s able to play the outfield with no restrictions? That could take weeks, and the Yankees don’t have weeks of cushion in the standings.

“It felt good,” Judge told Erik Boland after throwing Wednesday. “It’s obviously sore. You’ve got a flexor strain. Like a hammy, first time you run on a hammy, it’s going to be sore. But I didn’t feel like I did when I hurt it.”

The Yankees will play their next six games and 13 of their next 18 games at Yankee Stadium, and two of the five road games are at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, which has its own short porch. They’re gonna have to hold their nose and put Stanton in right field at least a few times. You can’t leave Giancarlo on the bench what, half the time until Judge can play the outfield again? Two-thirds of the time?

Put Stanton right, play him deep so anything over his head is a homer and anything in front of him is just a single, then replace him defensively after however many innings. It’s what the Yankees have to do given Judge’s injury restrictions and the importance of the games they’re playing. Big G is hitting .268/.340/.528 (137 wRC+) and he’s in that locked in “every at-bat could be a homer” mode. He’s gotta play.

Until Judge can play the outfield, things are going to be clunky with him and Stanton. It is what it is. The good news is Judge is back and that Stanton’s play has made this a problem. If he weren’t hitting, it would be easy to leave him on the bench. Put him in Yankee Stadium’s tiny right field for a few innings however often he can do it, and just go with it. Hopefully Judge’s throwing progression doesn’t take long.

"I believe (our best chance to win is) going to be for me to be in the outfield. I'll be working out there this coming week and be ready when needed," Stanton told Gary Phillips last week. "... It's not going to be like I've never been out there before."

Bullpen shuffle

Is it good when you have to send one of your trade deadline additions to the minors within a week? The Yankees optioned Jake Bird to Scranton after he served up the walk-off homer Monday. He appeared in three games after the trade and gave up seven runs in two innings. Going back to his time with the Rockies, and Bird has allowed 26 runs in his last 11.2 innings. Yeesh.

“We still think really highly of him, and think he's not only going to help us this year in the short-term, but certainly in the long-term too,” Boone told Dave Sessions about Bird. “So hopefully this is something that does give him that little bit of a reset, get him more kinda structured outings and things like that.”

The Yankees used Bird’s demotion and Austin Slater’s hamstring injury to rejigger the bullpen a bit. Here are the moves they made Wednesday:

Technically, De Los Santos replaced Slater on the roster. Slater’s IL trip allowed the Yankees to bring De Los Santos back before his 15-day waiting period expired following last Friday’s demotion. Brubaker was perfectly fine as a low leverage guy (3.38 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 16 innings), but the Yankees don’t need someone to pitch in blowouts. They need guys who can get important outs now, so Brubaker’s gone. He cleared waivers and was released Thursday.

Yerry had that clutch three-inning appearance last week and, with a short bullpen Wednesday, he got two big outs spanning the seventh and eighth to get the ball to Bednar. He’s a pretty great fifth or sixth option in the bullpen. Leiter threw a scoreless inning and got an important double play Wednesday too. Leiter’s underlying numbers are really good …

… and it would be swell if his 4.29 ERA course corrects these next few weeks and he turns into another high leverage option, essentially replacing Bird. Who knows with Boone, but the bullpen depth chart should look like this now:

With any luck, Fernando Cruz and his MLB-leading 41.2 K% will return soon, and add another late-inning option. You can see the vision. Get to the postseason and the Yankees will be in position to run Bednar, Cruz, Doval, Hill, Weaver, and a possibly fixed Williams out there for 5-6 innings a night. You don’t want to use them that much, but if you have to, they’re available. We’re getting ahead of ourselves though.

De Los Santos deserves to be in the bullpen and Leiter getting bumped down the depth chart a tad by the trade deadline guys is a good thing. Leiter consistently pitching the seventh and eighth? Eh. Leiter as a sixth inning type? Sure. It’s too bad Bird went south so quickly. Maybe he’ll get on track in Scranton and return to give the Yankees a different look as a breaking ball monster. For now, De Los Santos belongs.

Miscellany

The Yankees had only 28 plate appearances in Tuesday’s loss. Their only two baserunners were a single and a double, and the single was erased by a double play. I thought maybe it had been a while since the Yankees last sent just one over the minimum to the plate in a full nine-inning game, but nope. Here are the last five times they did it:

So the Yankees did this twice in two decades from 2004-24, and then did it twice in three weeks. Ridiculous team playing a ridiculous sport.

Injury updates

Ryan Yarbrough (oblique) was scheduled to throw live BP during the off-day Thursday. It doesn’t sound like they’ll spend all that time stretching him out to start. He could come back with a 50-ish pitch count … Cruz (oblique) could face hitters Sunday. He’s been throwing bullpens and will throw something Sunday. Could be live BP, could be another bullpen. Not sure … Jonathan Loáisiga (back) went for an MRI and it came back clean. I haven’t the slightest idea what his timetable looks like.

Up next

The Yankees return home for a six-game homestand that, in terms of fan reaction, could get ugly if the losses keep piling up. Wednesday's win was a nice reprieve, but the vibes, they are bad. Here’s the weekend ahead:

The Astros used off-days to rearrange their rotation and now the Yankees will see their co-aces the next two days. Fantastic. I’m sure this is just confirmation bias, but all year long it’s felt like the Yankees never catch a break with opposing pitchers. They never see a No. 4, No. 5, and the injury call up No. 6. They always run into the other team’s ace. Annoying.

Anyway, Saturday is Old Timers’ Day. The ceremony begins at 12pm ET. The Yankees are doing a 25th anniversary thing for the 2000 World Series and the Old Timers’ Game is returning. It’ll be the first since 2019. Apparently they will play baseball too. There was a report they would play softball instead. Works for me either way. Here is the Old Timers’ roster. Derek Jeter won’t be there, but Roger Clemens will for the first time. Alex Rodriguez last year and Clemens this year, eh? I guess some fences are being mended.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Hamish asks: Cashman is going to have a very quiet winter now. Payroll looks like it will be around $206m (for CBT purposes) with a need for a CF, backup Outfielder, back up C and back up 1B. Assuming that they let Bellinger, Stroman, Grisham, Loaisiga, Tim Hill and all the free agents walk. Starting pitching and most of the relief pitching is in house. Oswaldo and Caballero util/bench spots. Plenty of money there to go after Kyle Tucker.....I know you'll probably leave any talk of next year until after this season... but it's a significant re-shaping of the roster from a payroll standpoint with Stanton's money off the books in two years.

Bryan asks: Convince me that next year 2026 won’t be a “luxury tax reset year” for Hal with UFAs Bellinger/Grisham/Williams/Weaver/Goldy gone, Jones/Dominguez in the OF, Rumfield at 1B, ‘cheap’ options at C, etc. All in anticipation for a lockout in 2027 

Gonna lump these two together. The Yankees did a lot of their offseason work at the trade deadline when they brought in a third baseman, three relievers, and a utility man all under contract/team control through at least 2026. Cot’s estimates the 2026 luxury tax payroll at $222M. FanGraphs has it at $202M. I’m not sure what the discrepancy is, but I’m not gonna figure it out now. Plenty of time for boring payroll stuff later.

Let’s split the middle and call it $212M. That does not include arbitration contracts. David Bednar, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Camilo Doval will get pretty good raises given their All-Star Games. For argument’s sake, let’s say the Yankees decline Tim Hill’s and Jonathan Loáisiga’s options (I think Hill’s will get picked up, but we’ll see), and Cody Bellinger declines his player option to go out into free agency. 

That $212M covers this 40-man roster using only players under contract/team control next year (asterisk means the player will be out of minor league options):

The timing of the Tommy John surgeries for the three injured pitchers means their absences will extend into next season. If you’re hoping to see Cole on Opening Day 2026, you will be disappointed. Otherwise that roster is very subject to change, obviously. This isn’t a deep dive. It’s a quick big picture overview of who the 2026 Yankees have at the moment.

Let’s call it $25M for the arbitration guys. That puts the Yankees at $237M for luxury tax purposes. The threshold rises to $244M next year. Plug center field with Mr. Jones, fill out the bench and bullpen on the cheap, and sure, 2026 could be a luxury tax reset year. You know Hal Steinbrenner is aching to do it. There’s even some trimmable fat with that roster (Leiter’s arbitration salary, etc.)

The great unknown is how dead set Hal is on getting under the threshold next year. He wouldn’t budge in 2018 and 2021, but he seemingly relented in 2024 because the Yankees missed the postseason in 2023. So I guess the 2026 luxury tax plan (if there even is one) might be dependent on the 2025 team’s success? Miss the postseason and they’ll go over, win the World Series and they’re resetting the tax rates? I really have no idea. 

If payroll stays in the same $315M range as 2024 and 2025, then the Yankees will have plenty of money to sign Kyle Tucker (or re-sign Bellinger), bring in a good starter, add to the bullpen, etc. If Hal tightens the purse strings, it could be a boring offseason because the Yankees will have already done their heaviest hot stove lifting at the trade deadline.

James asks: Now that the trade deadline has passed, what do you think the outfield outlook will be for next year?  Bellinger and Grisham are both FAs. Judge and Dominguez should be in the OF, plus Spencer Jones could be ready to debut next year. Should the Yankees try to re-sign either Grisham or Bellinger?

There is a Spencer Jones-sized opening in center field in that 2026 roster I have in the previous question. I would not love going into next season with Jones as the undisputed guy. As good as he’s been the last few weeks, he’s still something of a project, and there’s a chance his first taste of the bigs is 2016 Aaron Judge bad. Re-signing Cody Bellinger makes so much sense, no? He can hop between the three outfield spots and first base with no issue, he’s a good hitter who fits the short porch and a lineup with a few too many strikeouts well, and he’s a good runner. Assuming a reasonable contract, which might not be possible as a Scott Boras client, I would definitely like to bring Bellinger back. Bellinger over Trent Grisham because of the outfield/first base versatility and all-around play.

Chip asks: Everywhere I look people are talking about how the expectation is that there will be an extended lockout following the 2026 season and the strong possibility of an actual salary cap when baseball does return. If you look at the Yankees payroll table, it's clear they're preparing for it with only a few guaranteed contracts on the books for the 2027 season. If the 2027 season is lost, then when the game returns to the field, Aaron Judge will be entering his age 36 season and Gerrit Cole will be entering his age 37 season. So my question is, with the potential of a lockout looming, and their two best players aging, does that make 2026 realistically a season where they have no choice but to go all-in or risk seeing their contention window slam shut?

Rob Manfred has all but confirmed the owners are planning to lock out the players again when the CBA expires next December. The big question is whether games will be missed. None were last time, but is either side (or both) dug in enough to drag the work stoppage into April? I really hope not. With league revenues being what they are, there is no reason – zero – for a work stoppage that costs games.

Given Judge’s age, I think every year should be an all-in year. I mean hell, last year definitely should have been an all-in year (i.e. don’t take Spencer Jones off the table for Corbin Burnes) because it was the only guaranteed year with Juan Soto. The Yankees haven’t done the all-in thing since I don’t even remember when. There is always one eye on the future, and I get it, the brain trust does have to think big picture, but the Judge era Yankees have always felt one or two pieces short, no?

I will quibble with the idea of the contention window slamming shut. These are the Yankees. Their window never closes, especially in the three (and possibly soon to be four) Wild Card era. The window with Judge as a centerpiece may close, but the Yankees almost always contend. When the Judge window closes, the Jasson Domínguez or Gunnar Henderson or whoever window will open. The Yankees going something like five years without sniffing October once Judge (and Cole) ages out would shock me.

That said, I do want the Yankees to go all-in to get Judge a ring next year (and yes, that involves him playing better in October). He’s the most dominant hitter we’ll ever see and he’s surpassed Don Mattingly as the greatest Yankee to never win a World Series, at least according to WAR. Go all-in to get Judge (and Cole) a ring next year, please. Who knows what the lockout will bring or how much those two will be able to contribute in 2027. The window won’t close. Just how much they will be a part of it will diminish.

Chris asks: Morton looked great his first game in Detroit, despite the loss. While he’s had some terrible outings this year and at one time lost his spot in the Orioles rotation, he’s also had numerous good games. Given some of his postseason success, I would have been happy had we gotten him.  Would you have seen that as a positive? And what would it have taken in terms of prospects to beat out Detroit?

Charlie Morton started the season terribly (10.89 ERA in his first five starts), got demoted to the bullpen, figured some things out, and he’s been much better since returning to the rotation in late May. He had a 3.88 ERA (4.14 FIP) in his final 11 starts with Baltimore. Surprisingly few starters were traded at the deadline. Morton was probably the third best behind Merrill Kelly and injured Shane Bieber.

I haven’t seen this reported anywhere but I think the Orioles did Morton a solid and asked him where he wanted to go, and worked it out. The Tigers are in the race and he reunited with A.J. Hinch, who was his manager all those years with the Astros. The prospect the O’s received, lefty reliever Micah Ashman, was Detroit’s 11th round pick last year and not a top 30 guy in their system. You’d think a serviceable starter could’ve fetched a greater return. Seems like a “let the veteran pick his spot and work it out” situation.

If so, then perhaps Morton was unavailable to the Yankees. I would’ve been happy with him though. The rotation depth is sorely lacking and, if nothing else, he would have been another source of innings. Morton might even be good enough to start a postseason game (who’s starting Game 3 behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodón? Luis Gil?). The Yankees’ equivalent to Ashman is someone like righty Tony Rossi, a pure reliever with interesting stuff who lit up High-A. I would’ve been cool with Morton.

Daniel asks: We are a long way off and a lot can change in a 1/3 of season + postseason but what are handicapped odds for a QO in the offseason? Belli can't get one, so possible candidates are Grisham and maybe Weaver or Devin Williams? If a player accepted (say Grisham), could they trade him in the same offseason?

The qualifying offer will be in the $22M range this offseason and I don’t think anyone gets one. Cody Bellinger is ineligible because he got one a few years ago, I don’t think the Yankees will risk Trent Grisham taking it and screwing up their budget, and relievers don’t get qualifying offers all that often. Josh Hader and Raisel Iglesias are the only relievers to get one since 2020. Williams could have gotten one with a typical Williams season, but that hasn’t happened. He played his way out of it. I bet the Yankees could re-sign Weaver to a more favorable contract, like two years and $22M rather than $22M in 2026 alone. Yeah, I don’t think there will be any qualifying offers for the Yankees this winter. As for a trade, a player who accepts the qualifying offer can not be traded without his consent until June 15th. That applies to all Major League free agents, in fact, not just qualifying offer guys.

Steve asks: There is usually talk about manipulating service time with prospects when it comes to getting that extra year. In your trade deadline thoughts you mentioned Bednar got demoted but not long enough to NOT get an extra year. Has any team ever traded for a player and then immediately demoted them long enough to get an extra year out of them? A ridiculous question I know but we’ve seen some weird stuff over the years in the transaction department.

Yep, the Rays did exactly this with Isaac Paredes. They got him in the Austin Meadows trade with the Tigers three days before Opening Day 2022, sent him to Triple-A for a month while they rolled with Vidal Bruján and Taylor Walls at second/third bases, then called Paredes up soon after his free agency had been pushed back. I don’t know if any team has ever done this after a deadline trade, but it’s definitely happened. I’m sure there are other examples. Paredes jumped to mind because it was clear what Tampa was doing and a whole big thing when it happened.

Matt asks: In all my years of watching the Yankees (30) I cannot remember an everyday player who has had such extreme platoon splits as Paul Goldschmidt. His batting average against lefties is nearly 200 points higher than against righties.  Has anyone come close?

Goldschmidt’s platoon splits are comical. There’s being a lefty masher and then there’s this:

We’re in August. It’s not like Goldschmidt is doing this in 35 plate appearances in April. Searching the biggest single-season platoon splits is above my pay grade. I don’t know how to do that. I wish I could, but I don’t. I do know that Jim Thome and Lou Whitaker, a Hall of Famer and a should-be Hall of Famer, had enormous platoon splits in their careers. The numbers:

Thome vs. RHP: .292/.426/.608
Thome vs. LHP: .238/.340/.427

Whitaker vs. RHP: .290/.378/.460
Whitaker vs. LHP: .239/.323/.334

Those two played almost two decades in the big leagues. We’re talking thousands and thousands of plate appearances. Thome has a 268-point gap in his OPS! Whitaker’s is 181 points. wRC+ splits don’t go back far enough for Whitaker, but Thome’s split is 162 vs. RHP and 102 vs. LHP. A 60-point gap, which may not look crazy for a guy like Thome, but it's like a 130 wRC+ vs. RHP and a 70 wRC+ vs. LHP for a mere mortal.

My guess is Goldschmidt’s platoon gap this year is on the very high side but not unprecedented. It might be more of a “this happens once every five years” thing than a “it never ever happens” thing. I wish I knew how to look this up. Maybe I’ll figure it out at some point and be able to report back.

Juan asks: Has any championship team lost 27 games in a 45 game stretch?

Juan sent this question in following Sunday’s loss. The Yankees were 18-27 in their previous 45 games at the time, and hey, it’s gotten better since then. The Yankees are now 19-26 in their last 45 games. Here are the World Series winners who lost at least 27 times in a 45-game span during the regular season:

The 2023 Diamondbacks, 2012 Tigers, 2007 Rockies, 2005 Astros, 1992 Braves, 1983 Phillies, 1973 Mets, 1936 Giants, and 1930 Cardinals all reached the World Series despite losing 27 times in a 45-game span at some point. It has happened, including recently.

Keep in mind that, for much of baseball history, losing 27 times in a 45-game span meant you were done. You weren’t going to finish with the best record in the league and thus weren’t going to the World Series. This is one of those things that I would expect to happen more often going forward because of the three Wild Card spots. Hey, maybe the Yankees will add their name to the list this year.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)

Comments

Ryan Howard's a guy with huge platoon splits for a longtime starter, and they were even there in his big MVP (that should have been Pujols) season. Career .277/.365/.560/.926 OPS vs. RHP and .217/.293/.415/.708 OPS vs. LHP. I knew Phillies fans around 08-09 already making plans for who would succeed him because the splits were getting so bad and then Ruben Amaro gave him a mega deal

Nick Fugitt

I've come to the conclusion that the baseball gods are pissed the Yankees got rid of their facial-hair policy for Williams, so we're being punished. The only solution is clean shaven moving forward!

MikeD

Didn't think that meme would apply to tonight's game. But here we are

brian m


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