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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 16 JAN 2024 23:59* PST - Russian Forces Suffer Catastrophic Losses Near Avdiivka

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SITREP 582 is 68 pages and a full report. 111 footnotes - a lot was going on.

What's Happening

What's the big story? Russian forces suffered major losses in the Klishchiivka and Avdiivka AO.

What's the second story? No one is saying the United States by name, but the chorus of voices that an unnamed someone needs to step up military aid for Ukraine is growing louder.

Summary

The podcast for January 16, 2024, is live.

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 16 JAN 2024 23:59* PST - Russian Forces Suffer Catastrophic Losses Near Avdiivka

Comments

When do catastrophic losses become the new normal for Russian losses?

The motion was rejected along party lines. The coalition stuck together. The main champion for the delivery of the Taurus, chairperson of the defense committee, Strack-Zimmermann (FDP/ the liberals) said it was pure party tactic and not the correct way, although she is for the delivery of the system.

I just researched the process for the motion of the CDU/CSU. Long story short: it could work, if Scholz shows some flexibility. Long story: CDU/CSU are the center right party group in the Bundestag that are the main opposition to the “Traffic light” coalition that is in government. In the opposition, the CDU/CSU can table a motion for a roll call vote (not secret) on the delivery of Taurus missiles. If the motions passes then there would be a vote, but the motion can first be sent to committee for deliberations. So, if the CDU/CSU could get some members from the parties of the governing coalition to vote with them, it could work eventually. But this requires a large number of defections, which Scholz and his cabinet could prevent by requiring party discipline. They could argue that it shows a crumbling coalition and or it is a risk to the security of Germany. Or they could say, ok, vote according to your conscience, in this case a number of Greens and Liberals may very well vote for the delivery of the missiles, even a few Social Democrats. And it probably would pass, in my opinion. So, it really comes down to whether Scholz, Habeck and Lindner decide their coalition would look too weak or this issue is far enough on the periphery that it won’t hurt their standing. Personal hot take, I think the coalition has more to win by allowing the vote. But the leaders of the three parties have repeatedly shown brittle inflexibility in such situations.


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