Divisional Round Game Picks (Sunday)

TEXANS @ CHIEFS (-10)

Spread Pick: TEXANS

Straight Pick: CHIEFS

This game is nothing like the upset at Arrowhead that we all witnessed back in October. The Chiefs defense is playing at a dominant level since their mid-season slump (mainly because their linebackers are finally communicating better), Patrick Mahomes is healthy, and his supporting cast (Hill, Fisher, the Williamses, etc) are all healthy now as well. There is nothing more terrifying in the entire NFL than a well-rested, well-prepared Andy Reid team coming off a by week, and I just do not see many scenarios here that end in a Texans victory.

I fully expect to see Mahomes throw for over 400 yards against a Houston secondary that lacks speed at basically every position, and I fully expect the Texans offense to start out so slow in the first half that they have no hope of catching up anyway. Houston is a good team, but they come out flat far too often, and fall behind far too much for me to have any faith in them today.

You can get away with playing shitty for three quarters against Buffalo - you definitely cannot against Kansas City. 

CHIEFS 31 - TEXANS 24

SEAHAWKS @ PACKERS (-4)

Spread pick: SEAHAWKS

Straight pick: SEAHAWKS

I will be producing a Film Room episode on this very topic this week, but I'll give you a little preview - the Packers defense CANNOT stop giving up huge plays. Yes, their pass rush is ferocious, their DBs are incredibly athletic, and Kenny Clark is perhaps the best nose tackle in football (when healthy), but Mike Pettine's play calling tendencies are so predictable that veteran quarterbacks routinely shred him with explosive plays deep down the field.

Pettine almost never throws anything fancy at you - very few blitzes, not many coverage rotations or inversions, and very few simulated pressures or creepers to screw with protections. Most of the time the Packers just rush with four, sit back, play zone coverage, and wait for QBs to make a mistake. And don't get me wrong, that *can* work, but against smart, accurate, mobile QBs that can either just get into different plays at the line of scrimmage, or beat you with perfect throws against predictable coverages, that defensive formula is a recipe for disaster. 

The Packers have not faced a quarterback all year like Russell Wilson, and he is the exact kind of weapon that gives them fits - both statistically and on film. I think we're about to see a banged up Seattle squad go up to Lambeau and give Green Bay a run for their money, if not outright win, solely because of their big play ability in the passing game against a deceptively soft Packer defense. If you thought last week was a big game for D.K. Metcalf, just watch what happens today if the Packers give him a one on one shot against Jaire Alexander with no safety help over the top. 

Bombs away, boys.

SEAHAWKS 20 - PACKERS 17