NFL Picks against the spread: Week 7

Season Record so far: 41-46-1 (47%)

Ideal handicapping record: 55%

CARDINALS (+3.5) @ GIANTS

The Giants are getting Saquon Barkley back this week, which certainly helps, but the combination of Sterling Shepard being out, Patrick Peterson being back for Arizona, and Daniel Jones being very inconsistent leads me to picking Arizona to cover in this game. At the moment, I trust Kyler Murray to light up Big Blue a hell of a lot more than I trust Jones to light up the Cardinals.
 

If Barkley takes the game over and makes a mockery of Haason Reddick and Jordan Hicks in space, sure, we could still see the Giants win, but that’s just not what I expect to happen. The Cards have a true lockdown corner, a true stud pass rusher (against a bad left tackle), and tons of speed at linebacker to help contain Saquon’s big play ability. That’s a bad recipe for a Giants win.

TEXANS (+1) @ COLTS 

The Texans are banged up in the secondary, and it couldn’t come at a worse possible time. Houston’s arch nemesis – T.Y. Hilton – is due for his annual pound of Texans flesh and the only corner on the roster that *might* be able to slow him down is an injured, and relatively ancient Johnathan Joseph. I would expect Hilton to go off for 150+ yards against this secondary, just like he almost always does. 

The Colts are not without their own injury problems, however, because they will likely be missing Malik Hooker, Pierre Desir, Tyquan Lewis, Kenny Moore, and possibly…in a worst case scenario…even Quenton Nelson. This is a very, *very* limited Colts team because of all of their injuries, and because of that reason I think the Texans pull off a road upset. T.Y. Hilton will still get his numbers, but the only quarterback in Indy that I think could have overcome so many injuries and still get a win would be Andrew Luck. 

I love Jacoby Brissett, but he’s no Andrew Luck….yet.

DOLPHINS @ BILLS (-17)

The Bills defense is incredible, they are coming off a bye, and they get Devin Singletary back. Those three reasons alone are enough for me to bet on them covering this monstrous 17-point spread, but when you also factor in that the 2019 Dolphins might be the worst football team in the history of the league…yeah…this one is easy. 

VIKINGS @ LIONS (+2.5)

The Vikings have an excellent defense, spectacular skill position players, an improving offensive line, and a dead average quarterback, so technically all of the pieces are there for them to pull off a road divisional upset…BUT…I still think the Lions come out on top in this game. Were is not for two bad penalty calls, a 99-yard fumble returns, and a bone-headed timeout in week one, this team would be undefeated. They are so, so much better than their record indicates right now, and I think the Vikings are running head first into a pissed off buzzsaw up there in Detroit. 

Expect a heavy dose of Kerryon Johnson, plenty of play action bombs to Kenny Golladay, and an inspired performance by that Detroit secondary to carry the day for them. This team is real.

RAIDERS @ PACKERS (-5)

Both of these teams are extremely beat up coming into this game. The Packers will not have Davante Adams, Darnell Savage, Geronimo Allison, and potentially also Tony Brown, Kenny Clark, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, while the Raiders will be without two critical pieces themselves in Trent Brown and Tyrell Williams.
 

In times like this where both teams are so severely injured, it really all does come down to one thing – who is your quarterback? Who can you rely on more to elevate a depleted roster to a win? For me, I trust Aaron Rodgers to elevate Jake Kumerow and Allen Lazard a lot more than I trust Derek Carr to elevate Zay Jones and Hunter Renfrow. It’s really as simple as that. Both teams are hurt, both teams have almost no receivers left, but only one of them has a top 10 all-time quarterback to make up for it. 

Mark me down for the Packers to win by 6. 

JAGUARS (-5) @ BENGALS

I had low expectations for the Bengals, but HOLY SHIT this team is bad. They can’t block, they can’t cover, they can’t tackle, they still don’t have A.J. Green, Cordy Glenn, or William Jackson back, and their entire offense is basically just Joe Mixon and an under-siege Andy Dalton vs the world. This roster is just not enough to compete in today’s NFL, and there will be a very long, very arduous rebuild in store for Cincy once this nightmare season is over. 

The Jaguars are very inconsistent themselves, but at least they are relatively healthy with their only semi-notable starter not suiting up being Marqise Lee. Everyone else on this offense is good to go, which means the Bengals will be getting a heavy dose of Leonard Fournette and their first little taste of that deadly Minshew-Chark connection. With both starting corners out for this game and a very depleted defensive line to boot, that LSU duo of Fournette and Chark should be in line for a HUGE day. 

I’ll take Jacksonville by a touchdown.

RAMS (-3.5) @ FALCONS

The stoppable force meets the movable object. A lot of concern is going around lately for the Rams offense, but really the only thing people should be concerned about is just the offensive line. Schematically speaking, LA is not doing many things differently than their Super Bowl campaign last season. However, in 2018 their offensive line was absolutely demolishing every defensive front they faced so they could afford to just run outside zone all day with impunity and throw in a few bootlegs and throwback screens for good measure…but they can’t get away with that this season.

Andrew Whitworth has officially hit the age wall, Rob Havenstein is having a down year, and pretty much the only member of that line that isn’t having a bad season is Brian Allen. They can’t get a consistent run game going, they can’t protect Jared Goff long enough for him to get through his progressions, and because they are constantly behind the chains it makes it more difficult for Sean McVay to get into a play calling groove. 

Everything is completely discombobulated right now for what used to be the NFL’s second-best offense…but luckily for them they now have the Falcons to look forward to. If there was ever a “get right defense” in the NFL for teams to work out the kinks against, it’s this Atlanta defense. Terrible up front, terrible in the back, and terrible in communication everywhere in between, the Falcons are a total mess on defense in almost every possible way. I expect the Rams to have a big day against them, even on the road in Atlanta, and I expect every Ram you start to have a great fantasy performance. 

By the way, if you happen to watch this game live, pay attention to how they use Jalen Ramsey against Julio Jones. If he shadows Julio around the field and has a good day against him, that could be a great preview for how they plan to use Jalen in upcoming games against the likes of Allen Robinson, Marquise Brown, and Amari Cooper in the back half of the season.

49ers (-10.5) @ REDSKINS

The Redskins are terrible on offense, the 49ers are dominant on defense, and this is probably the only team in the league that Kyle Shanahan will deliberately run up the score against because he absolutely DESPISES Dan Snyder. Injuries on the 49ers offense or not, as long as they have Kyle’s play calling, Jimmy G’s quick release, and George Kittle’s ability to take over a game all by himself, they will be fine. 

10.5 is not enough of a spread. Even if they are up by 18 with two minutes left, Shanahan will do whatever he can to push that lead over 20 points…he wants to crush them that badly. 

CHARGERS @ TITANS (-2.5)

Honestly, I think Ryan Tannehill is an upgrade to Marcus Mariota at this point in their careers. Even going back to the preseason, Tannehill looked like the superior quarterback that was more accurate and more in control in the pocket, and it was really only a matter of time before this switch happened. 

Mike Vrabel knew that they were going to go nowhere with Mariota under center, especially in a very competitive AFC South, so he took one last gamble to try to save the season. I respect that…and I think it’s going to pay off today as well. This Titans defense is fantastic, and the run game has the pieces to be excellent as well if they could just get it going earlier in the game. I think today’s game plan will revolve around getting Derrick Henry fed early and often, and just relying on Tannehill to make three key throws per drive just to keep the chains moving. If he can do that, Henry and the defense can take care of the rest and get a win.

The Chargers have a lot of problems with their run defense once the ball breaks past the defensive line (tackling and angles have been piss poor), and their offensive line is one of the least trustworthy in the league at picking up the kinds of stunts and pressures that Tennessee will throw at them (communication errors all over the place). This is a very, very poor matchup for LA. They need Tannehill to have a dreadful performance if they want a shot to win this game. 

RAVENS @ SEAHAWKS (-3)

Put Marlon Humphrey on Tyler Lockett, double D.K. Metcalf over the top with Marcus Peters and Earl Thomas, and make Russell Wilson beat you with everyone else. That is the formula that the Ravens need to stick to if they want to win this game in a very hostile road environment. The Baltimore run defense is much better than their pass defense (pre-Peters trade), so I would be okay with selling out against Wilson’s weapons and daring them to run, because at least that would limit how many explosive passing plays they can get.

And for an offense that usually has relied almost entirely on explosive pass plays to get chunks and move the ball, limiting those opportunities is probably a good idea. This game will likely come down to who has the ball last in a tough, 24-20 game, and in the end I think that team who gets that ball last will be the Seahawks.

A few Wilson scrambles there, a screen to Chris Carson there, and next thing you know Seattle will be inside the Ravens 10-yard line, down by 3, with 20 seconds left. They could kick a field goal and go to overtime, but that’s not Pete Carroll’s style. He’ll want the win, and he’ll want it now because this will be one of the few times his offense has knocked on the door all day, and he doesn’t think they can do it again. Wilson will drop back, and find Luke Willson at the back pylon for the game winning TD. The crowd will go wild, Earl Thomas will drop to his knees in disgust, and once again the nation will ask themselves how the hell the Seahawks pulled it off…..again.

SAINTS @ BEARS (-4)

The Saints are extremely banged up right now with Brees still being out, as well as Tre’Quan Smith, Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, and Trey Hendrickson all not suiting up either. This game would have been hard enough to win even *with* all of those guys playing, but at this point I just hope they can keep the score within seven. Akiem Hicks and Kyle Long are both on IR for Chicago, which is obviously big as well, but by no means do those two absences outweigh the downpour of injuries the Saints have had to deal with so far this season. It’s a testament to how damn good their coaching is that New Orleans still has the record they do (5-1). 

I think this game stays close until the fourth quarter when the Bears finally pull away and win by 7 or 8 points…probably with a David Montgomery touchdown being the final nail in the coffin. By no means do I expect this game to be high-scoring because both teams have excellent defenses and inconsistent offenses, but an 8-point win in a 20-12 game is still just as good as an 8-point in a 40-32 game. 

EAGLES @ COWBOYS (-3)

The Eagles injury report has not been kind this season. DeSean Jackson, Jason Peters, Timmy Jernigan, Nigel Bradham, and Avonte Maddox are all out this week, and Ronald Darby may or may not suit up as well. All of those names (other than the corners, I guess) are huge blows to this team if they won’t be on the field, so once again Philly’s fate rests upon the shoulders of Carson Wentz. The Eagles go as Wentz goes, and it seems like every single week their wins or losses have depended on his ability to go Super Saiyan and make plays that very few other QBs can make. Eventually, relying on one guy to make all the plays won’t work out…just ask Green Bay or Indianapolis. 

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are the exact opposite and are starting to get healthier by the week. Tyron Smith, La’el Collins, Randall Cobb, Amari Cooper, Byron Jones, and Zack Martin will all play, which means this Cowboys team is the freshest it’s been in nearly a month. I think the combined arms of a healthy offensive line, a healthy-ish receiving corps, a sturdy defense, and the dominance of Ezekiel Elliott will be too much for Wentz’ brilliance to overcome all on its own, and in the end the ‘Boys will win by five or six points. A score of 27-22 sounds about right to me.

PATRIOTS @ JETS (+10)

Full video preview:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU6bhkzWVbA