Quick thoughts before Game 1 of the 2025 ALDS

The first ever Yankees vs. Blue Jays postseason series will begin in a few hours. Doesn’t the postseason feel so long when you’re in the Wild Card Series? This is just the ALDS! The Yankees would still have to get through the ALCS and World Series after this. They’re gonna have to shorten the regular season to 154 games or something. Pitchers aren’t gonna be able to do this year after year.

Anyway, here are some quick notes before we get into things:

• Luis Gil will start Game 1 and Max Fried will start Game 2.

• Cody Bellinger banged his lefty heel sliding Thursday. He’s good to go.

• Ryan McMahon is fine after flipping over the dugout railing the other day.

“It means a lot, especially an important game for us in the series,” Gil said about getting the Game 1 start. "But I think we've just got to keep doing what we've been doing, stay locked in, and go out and compete and ask God to help us out.”

The Yankees typically go for upside with these decisions, like Cam Schlittler over Will Warren for Game 3 vs. Boston. Warren might be the better bet to give the Yankees, say, five innings and 2-3 runs, but they think Gil has the better chance for six scoreless or whatever it may be. You need great performances to win championships, not just good performances, and the Yankees lean toward the guys with a chance to be great. 

At least in the bat-missing department, Gil has not been as effective this year as last, though maybe he’ll get that postseason adrenaline boost and we’ll see some 98-99s in the first inning this afternoon. No more of this “he’s holding back so he can better throw strikes wink wink nudge nudge” stuff. Pedal to the floor right from the start, Luis. Be the Rookie of the Year version of you. That guy rules.

Schlittler gave everyone in the bullpen other than David Bednar two days off. If the Yankees need to go to the bullpen early in Game 1, they can do that, plus they know they have Fried going into Game 2. He is about as good a bet to give innings as anyone in the game. And if Gil goes short today and Fried goes short tomorrow, then none of this matters because the Yankees probably won’t be playing much longer.

Here are the ALDS ZiPS probabilities:

Obvious statement is obvious: Game 1 is so important. In the Yankees’ case, winning Game 1 gives you four chances to win two games, and you have Fried available to start two of those four games. The next game is always the most important game. For the Yankees in the ALDS, it would mean an advantage greater than the usual Game 1 win, at least in theory. Let’s get into a few other things quickly.

1. ALDS roster. The ALDS roster was finalized and announced Saturday morning. The only change is Gil taking Mark Leiter Jr.’s place. The Yankees are sticking with 12 pitches and 14 position players. Here, for the sake of posterity, is the ALDS roster:

Leiter is behind Blackburn in the pecking order, eh? I guess Blackburn’s ability to go multiple innings could have been the deciding factor, but that ain’t great for Leiter. The off-days after Games 2 and 4 make it a little easier on the bullpen, so you don’t really need that 13th pitcher.

Chris Bassitt (back), Bo Bichette (knee), and Max Scherzer (ineffective) are not on Toronto’s ALDS roster. Bichette has not played since sliding into Austin Wells on Sept. 6th (video). That’s a pretty big loss for the Blue Jays. Bichette is a difference-making hitter with contact and extra-base ability. No Scherzer is a tough break for the Yankees. The guy’s a Hall of Famer, but he has not been good this year. I was hoping he’d get a start.

Kevin Gausman will start Game 1. Shane Bieber and rookie Trey Yesavage are the only other no-doubt starters on Toronto’s ALDS roster. Lefty Eric Lauer was in the rotation for a stretch this year before sliding into more of a long man role. I guess he’s their Game 4 starter (or Game 4 bulk innings guy) if things get that far? The team on the field in the ALDS will not be the same team the Blue Jays had most of the year.

Similar to the Wild Card Series, I think the Yankees are a better and more talented team going into the ALDS, especially with Bichette out. That means nothing, lesser teams win three out of five all the time, but the Yankees have the edge in talent. The difference during the season series was execution. If it’s better, the Yankees will win. Toronto is the superior defensive team but the Yankees are better just about everywhere else. Offense, rotation, bullpen, health.

2. The new look defense. When you lose the division on a tiebreaker, you think about the million little things that cost you that Wild Card Series bye and home field advantage in the ALDS. For me, it’s the season series, specifically the Yankees losing six times in seven games in Toronto in July, and playing some of the worst defense I’ve ever seen on a Major League field. It was hideous.

The Blue Jays had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball this season (17.8%). They force you to make plays and the Yankees weren’t up to it in those seven games at Rogers Centre in July. The defense they have right now though is not the defense they had back then though. Consider:

• Jazz Chisholm Jr. played third base for the first four of those seven games. 

• DJ LeMahieu was at second base for the first three of the seven games.

• Jasson Domínguez was in left field for six of the seven games.

• Anthony Volpe was going through his yips phase that month.

Jazz is back at second, where he’s a natural and a much better defender than LeMahieu. McMahon is at third base now, where he’s a much better defender than Chisholm. Volpe is over his yips. Has been for a few weeks now. He looked really good defensively in the Wild Card Series. Domínguez is no longer the left fielder. It’ll be Bellinger out there (as long as his heel is okay.)

The Yankees are still capable of kicking the ball around. Believe me, I know, but the defense they have now is much better than the defense they had when they let the AL East slip away in July. They’re better at three of the four infield spots and in left field. They’re more or less the same at first base too (Rice started four of the seven games). Worse in right because of Judge’s arm, but what can you do?

Catching the ball is an absolute must against the Blue Jays. They put so many balls in play and they have some power too. It’s not a team of slap hitters. Outs have to be outs and you can’t give them an extra 90 feet either. The Yankees didn’t do that during the summer and it cost them a Wild Card Series bye. They’re better able to do it now than they were then. They just have to go do it.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Blue Jays intentionally walk Judge more than any other team. They IBBed him seven times this year, and in John Schneider’s three full seasons as manager, the Blue Jays have IBBed Judge 16 times. That’s 25% of his IBBs coming in 9% of his games. It goes without saying that if the Blue Jays keep walking Judge, it’s on Bellinger, Rice, and Stanton to make them pay … George Springer’s postseason career:

• 2015-16: .217/.308/.435 (107 wRC+)

• 2017-19: .278/.369/.578 (153 wRC+)

• 2020-24: .260/.299/.438 (101 wRC+)

2017-19 aligns perfectly with Springer’s prime. Those are also the years the Astros stole signs illegally per MLB’s investigation. I’m mostly pointing this out because we’re going to hear a lot of “Springer is a great postseason hitter” this series while the FOX broadcasters ignore the biggest team-wide scandal the sport has seen since the 1919 Black Sox. Rob Manfred said part of the punishment would be public shaming, right? So here I am shaming … Wells and Alejandro Kirk rated as two of the very best pitch-framers in the sport this season. You will see a lot of borderline pitches called strikes this series, for both teams … Kirk’s arm is about average and the Blue Jays have several individual pitchers who are very slow to the plate, including Gausman and high leverage relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Yariel Rodriguez (plus a few others). They all allowed an 85% stolen base success rate or better. There will be bags to be had when they’re on the mound. Take ‘em … And finally, the roof will be open for Game 1 and Statcast’s park factors say Rogers Centre is about 3% more home run friendly with the roof open. 3% ain’t much, but anything that favors homers is advantage Yankees. The roof is MLB’s call. The league makes all weather-related decisions in October.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. I will get to them as I can during the postseason. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)