Thoughts before Game 1 of the 2025 Wild Card Series

UPDATE: The Game 1 starting lineup is exactly how I laid it out below. Every so often I guess right and look smart. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ben Rice are on the bench, and Amed Rosario and Paul Goldschmidt are starting.

ORIGINAL POST: Once again, it is Yankees vs. Red Sox in the postseason. It is their third postseason meeting in eight years and things haven’t gone well for the Yankees lately. They beat the Red Sox in the 1999 ALCS and 2003 ALCS. The Red Sox then won the 2004 ALCS, 2018 ALDS, and the 2021 Wild Card Game. The Yankees are 1-8 in their last nine postseason games against Boston. 1-8!

“It's Red Sox-Yankees that gets your attention,” Aaron Boone said during Monday’s workout day. “I would throw it right in those – the best rivalries in all of sports, and obviously a lot of history there. Excited to be a part of it, and hopefully we get the better of them this go round.”

Here is the extremely cool postseason hype video the Yankees put together and here are the Wild Card Series ZiPS odds:

Those are pretty high, no? With the caveat that it’s a short series and who knows what in the world will happen over the next 18 innings, I feel pretty confident going into the Wild Card Series, but not 64.9% confident. ZiPS gives the Yankees a better chance to beat the Red Sox than it gives the Dodgers to beat the Reds (62.7%). Huh. Who am I to argue with the algorithm overlords though?

I know the Yankees went 4-9 against the Red Sox this year, including 2-5 at Yankee Stadium, but I think the Yankees are clearly the better team. They’re healthier, which is important, and they have the better rotation one through three, plus they have the deeper lineup. Boston gives too many at-bats to Nate Eaton, David Hamilton, Nick Sogard. Those dudes have no business in a contender’s lineup.

The Red Sox have been a bat short since mid-June (gee, I wonder what happened?) and especially since Roman Anthony got hurt a few weeks ago. Anthony isn’t even with the Red Sox. Tim Healey says he’s at their Spring Training complex rehabbing. Again, it’s a best-of-three, and even bad players can string together 2-3 good games to swing a series. On paper, I think the Yankees are clearly the better team.

Winning 11 of the final 12 regular season games was a nice little momentum-builder, though a) the Yankees played exclusively bad teams in those 12 games, and b) September momentum doesn’t always carry over into October. It has been researched countless times. Another thing that has been researched over and over is the importance of home runs in the postseason. The league-wide numbers since the 12-team postseason became a thing in 2022:

• Regular season: 4.43 runs per game and 1.13 home runs per game

• Postseason: 4.00 runs per game and 1.21 home runs per game

Offense drops in the postseason, pretty significantly too, but the league home run rate goes up. This is not a three-year thing either. It goes back to at least the start of the Wild Card era in 1995, per James Smyth. Homers take on added importance in October. You’re not guaranteed to hit them, but you need them, and no team hit them like the Yankees this year. That they can steal bases now too adds some offensive diversity.

The Yankees have not beaten a non-AL Central team in a multi-game postseason series (so not including the one-game Wild Card Game against the Athletics in 2018) since the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS. Either they get that monkey off their back these next 2-3 days, or we’re asking the same old questions this offseason. I’m tired of them. Go win the series. Here’s a thing I did comparing the Yankees and Red Sox position by position at CBS, and here are a few thoughts before Game 1.

1. Wild Card Series roster. Game 1 begins at 6pm ET and will air on ESPN. Teams had to finalize and submit their Wild Card Series rosters to MLB this morning, and they were announced soon thereafter. Here are the 26 players the Yankees will carry this series:

Luis Gil started and threw 79 pitches Sunday. The Yankees aren’t gonna ask him to pitch on short rest, even out of the bullpen on his throw day, so he’s off the roster. Ryan Yarbrough hasn’t pitched since Sept. 16th, though he warmed up at some point during the homestand. He’s fine. He’s just not on the roster because the Red Sox don’t have many dangerous lefties.

Luis and Yarbrough were dropped from the roster and the Yankees will go with 12 pitchers and 14 position players. I thought they might go with 13 pitchers because it could be three games in three days, but nope. Warren started Friday and would be on short rest in Game 1 and normal rest in Game 2. He’s the long guy I hope the Yankees don’t need. Blackburn wiggled his way into postseason roster worthiness, eh? Sneaky.

The Yankees dropped Austin Slater, who went 2-for-25 (.120) with 16 strikeouts and no walks after the trade, and replaced him with Escarra. Aaron Boone was not afraid to pinch-hit, pinch-run, or defensively replace Rice or Wells the last few weeks. Now he can do it without having to worry about running out of catchers if there’s an injury. It’s a better use of the roster spot than Slater at this point.

Boone said Wells will catch Game 1 and Goldschmidt will “probably” start against Garret Crochet tonight, and man, I don’t like it. Goldschmidt is in his late career DJ LeMahieu phase where there is just no pop left in his bat. There is more to life than home runs, but he hasn’t hit one since Aug. 8th, and he hit two homers in his last 238 plate appearances of the regular season. Since the All-Star break:

• Goldschmidt vs. LHP: .228/.279/.368 (81 wRC+) in 61 PA

• Rice vs. LHP: .233/.320/.535 (132 wRC+) in 50 PA

Small sample sizes for both guys, but it’s what we have, and have you watched Goldschmidt lately? Nothing about him says he’s able to hit one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. Rice has been crushing everything the last few weeks. I know he’ll come off the bench as soon as Crochet is out of the game, but I don’t want him sitting at all. The defensive upgrade ain’t worth it at this point.

Rosario is 6-for-9 with a double and a homer against Crochet and I thought most of that was from their old AL Central days, when he was in Cleveland and Crochet was in Chicago, but nope. He doubled in his only at-bat against him in 2021 and is 5-for-8 with a homer against him this year. Huh. The home run was a bomb too (video). Obviously Rosario will be in the lineup tonight. He’s here to hit lefties. My guess at the Game 1 lineup:

1. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Cody Bellinger
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 2B Amed Rosario
6. CF Trent Grisham
7. SS Anthony Volpe
8. C Austin Wells
9. 3B José Caballero

Goldschmidt and Rosario come out as soon as Crochet is out of the game, though the Red Sox’s bullpen is pretty lefty heavy. If Boone is dead set on Chisholm and Rice not facing southpaws, there’s a scenario in which Rice and Jazz spend Game 1 on the bench. I don’t think that’s the case. I think it’s a Crochet thing, and once he’s out of the game, Rice and Chisholm are in, lefty relievers be damned.

(They might be in the starting lineup! I’m basing this off my guess at the lineup.)

Anyway, those are the 26 players the Yankees will carry in the Wild Card Series. Blackburn over Yarbrough is the mildest of surprises, but not really based on how they’ve used them the last few weeks. Escarra over Slater is perfectly sensible given how the Yankees use Rice/Wells and how bad Slater has been. The first 18 players on the roster are the important ones. The last six are just along for the ride.

2. Wild Card Series x-factors. I planned to go more in-depth here, but the stupid Mets threw a wrench into things. I had time carved out to write Sunday, then those wannabes couldn’t beat the Marlins, and I had to scramble to write about them for CBS. (Here’s my postmortem on the Mets season.) 

I did my best here to highlight a few things that could/will decide the Wild Card Series. I wish I could've gone deeper, but I just ran out of time. Such is life when there’s no Wild Card Series bye and a quick turnaround from Game 162 to Game 1. Things move fast in the postseason. Be there or be Juan Soto. Here are a few quick Wild Card Series x-factors.

Fifth time’s a charm vs. Crochet?

My guess is the Yankees fared better against Garrett Crochet this season than most Yankees fans realize. That isn’t to say they did well against him, just less bad than everyone else. Crochet made four starts against the Yankees during the regular season:

Two great starts, one so-so start, one bad start. It works out to a 3.29 ERA (3.10 FIP) against the Yankees and a 2.48 ERA (2.86 FIP) against everyone else. So, yay? The Yankees were able to touch Crochet up for some homers. Need to do that again, preferably with men on base. He is a handful though, and he will strike out a lot of batters. Gotta at least make sure they’re 5-6 pitch strikeouts rather than three-and-outs.

With any luck, having seen Crochet so many times already this year, including twice in the last six weeks, will give the Yankees a bit of a leg up going into Game 1. They’ve seen the guy, know his pitch shapes and his velocity ranges, and have an idea how he will attack them. The familiarity effect is real. Moreso with relievers than starters in a postseason series, but it is real.

(Max Fried faced the Red Sox three times this year. Two runs in seven innings in June, six scoreless innings in August, and two runs in 5.1 innings in September.)

Red Sox vs. Judge’s arm

One thing we know for certain is Alex Cora’s team will force the Yankees to make plays. The Yankees can be sloppy, it is no secret, and the Red Sox push the envelope against them more than any other team. Stealing bases, first-to-thirds, running out every ground ball that requires a modicum of effort from the defense, whatever. The Red Sox play to make the Yankees make mistakes.

Things have gone fairly well with Aaron Judge’s throwing since his return to the field. He started all six games in right field during the final homestand, so there are no restrictions as far as needing to give his flexor a break after so many days in the field. There are clearly restrictions on Judge’s throwing though. His top throw since returning is 86 mph. His average competitive throw before the injury was 90.4 mph.

The Red Sox have speed (David Hamilton, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, etc.) and they have to use it because they are a bit short on power. They hit four home runs in their final eight regular season games and 17 home runs in 22 games after Anthony got hurt. The Red Sox have to manufacture runs and Cora’s team will force Judge to either make good throws, or concede the extra base. 

(There will definitely be an element of the Yankees vs. themselves this series. Make plays on defense and the Red Sox will have a hard time putting together rallies.)

Boston’s lefty heavy bullpen

I might as well put a bow on the Yankees vs. lefty relievers stat I’ve been tracking all year. Here are plate appearances against lefty relievers in 2025:

1. Yankees: 917
2. Twins: 910
3. Phillies: 878
4. Rays: 836
5. Mariners: 830

The Yankees tried to address this at the trade deadline with José Caballero, Amed Rosario, and Austin Slater. Slater didn’t hit though, so much so that he's not on the Wild Card Series roster, and Rosario’s mostly a singles dude. There were still times late in the season when the opponent could roll out a lefty reliever for a lane of 5-6 batters, and there wasn’t much the Yankees could do other than let their lefties hit left-on-left.

Boston’s bullpen is very lefty heavy. It has been most of the season. Here is their Wild Card Series roster and their Wild Card Series pitching staff:

STARTERS
Game 1: LHP Garrett Crochet
Game 2: RHP Brayan Bello
Game 3: TBA

BULLPEN
Closer: LHP Aroldis Chapman
Setup: RHP Garrett Whitlock
Middle: RHP Zack Kelly, LHP Steven Matz, RHP Justin Slaten, RHP Greg Weissert, LHP Justin Wilson
Long: LHP Connelly Early, LHP Kyle Harrison, LHP Payton Tolle

Lucas Giolito is out with an elbow issue, leaving Early and Harrison as candidates to start Game 3, if the series gets there. Whitlock is far and away Cora’s most trusted righty and I assume he will see the Judge/lefty/Giancarlo Stanton lane every game. Otherwise it’ll be Matz and Wilson in high leverage spots, plus Slaten here and there. Tolle throws 100 mph and could be asked to get important outs too. 

Cody Bellinger has hit lefties well for three years now and both Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ben Rice hit lefties well the last few weeks. Is that legitimate improvement, or just a blip? I’m not sure. I am sure they will see lefties in the Wild Card Series though. The makeup of the Red Sox’s bullpen guarantees it. When the alternatives are Caballero, Rosario, and end of the line Paul Goldschmidt, the Yankees figure to need their lefty hitters to break through against Boston’s lefty relievers at some point.

Which bullpen will show up?

At risk of jinxing it, the bullpen was really good the last few weeks of the regular season. As a unit, the bullpen had a 2.73 ERA (3.52 FIP) in 52.2 innings following those back-to-back disasters against the Tigers a few weeks ago, and roles became more clear. This is how Boone used his bullpen down the stretch:

Closer: RHP David Bednar
8th inning: RHP Devin Williams
Firemen: RHP Fernando Cruz and RHP Luke Weaver
Lefty: LHP Tim Hill
Middle: RHP Camilo Doval and RHP Mark Leiter Jr.
Multi-inning low leverage: RHP Paul Blackburn

To Boone’s credit, he's shown a willingness to be flexible with his bullpen in past postseasons. I would not assume Williams is married to the eighth inning. He could get the middle of the order in the seventh if that's his lane, though my guess is he will only start a clean inning. Cruz and Weaver are the guys who come into jams, Cruz because he’s an elite strikeout guy and Weaver because Boone trusts him implicitly. Hill will be the Jarren Duran specialist this series. He's the lefty the Cora rarely pinch-hits for.

Cruz has walked way too many guys lately. Nine walks in his last 10 games and 7.1 innings, or 23.7% of batters faced. He’s also struck out only two of the last 24 batters he’s faced, or 8.3%. That is a problem. The whiff rate on his splitter was up around 60% earlier this year. It was 48% in September, which is still excellent, but too many splits were in the dirt for easy takes. You can live with the walks if they come with a lot of strikeouts, and the strikeouts have been hard to come by for Cruz lately. It ain’t great. He needs to be better.

The Yankees have a lot – A LOT – of talent in their bullpen. They have most of the year, really, though the performance hasn’t matched the talent level up until these last few weeks. If the bullpen reverts to being unreliable, then it’ll be a short postseason run. If the bullpen looks like it has the last few weeks, then the Yankees will be in good shape. The bullpen is this team’s ultimate x-factor this October. It has the talent to be great. Much better than it was most of the regular season.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. No surprise here: Cam Schlittler will be the Game 3 starter, Aaron Boone confirmed Monday. How about we avoid that completely and Schlittler starts Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday instead? Sounds like a plan … And finally, Aaron Judge and Max Fried were named AL Player and Pitcher of the Month for September. Fried also won it in April. Judge won it in April and May. He’s up to 12 career Players of the Month, second most all-time behind Barry Bonds (13). Since Judge’s MLB debut, Shohei Ohtani has the second most Player of the Month selections. He has six.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Jon asks: Who will be this year's version of 1996 Graeme Lloyd? Meaning a reliever who wasn't trusted during the season but who inexplicably becomes crucial and lethal in the playoffs/World Series?

I will get to mailbag questions as time allows during the postseason. This is one I wanted to get to before the Yankees play their first game.

Mark Leiter Jr. was this guy last postseason, right? He replaced Ian Hamilton on the ALCS roster after Hamilton hurt hamstring, and allowed one run in 5.1 innings the rest of the postseason. The run came in his first appearance too. Leiter had five straight scoreless appearances to wrap up his October. That’s not Lloyd good, but it definitely qualifies as an out-of-nowhere contribution.

This is purely a vibes-based pick: Camilo Doval. Maybe he’s not the best pick because the guy has been a really good reliever at times throughout his career (unlike Lloyd before coming to the Yankees), though Doval was so up-and-down with the Yankees, and I don’t think anyone actually trusts him. I think he fits. I could totally see Doval being a shutdown guy this month. I could also see him giving up three runs in his first game and being immediately relegated to “last guy in the bullpen” status.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. I will get to them as I can during the postseason. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)