NBADynastyADP

ALL ACCESS - March Dynasty Rankings

With a little over a month left in the regular season (and the fantasy playoffs in full swing), I'm back with another dynasty rankings update.

As always, there are two tabs - one ranking set is for CATEGORIES leagues and the other is for POINTS leagues. Make sure you are looking at that the correct tab.

I am planning to do at least one more in-season dynasty rankings update before the end of the regular season and a lot more of my focus will be on expanding and refining my 2024 NBA Draft projections and rankings.

Thank you to all of you for your continued support!

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - 2024 NBA Draft Big Board - March Update

My NBA Draft Big Board is back...and it's a lot bigger.

The new board covers 50+ prospects for the 2024 NBA Draft, their fantasy projections, rookie draft tiers, and advanced statistics.

This "bad draft" is going to produce a lot of fantasy talent and these big boards are going to give you a massive edge over your league.

A few important notes:

* Matas Buzelis and Ron Holland have moved up based on their sample sizes increasing since January - which allowed me to focus more on how their games had changed in the second half of their seasons. I'm getting a lot more comfortable with Buzelis as a potential top 100 dynasty asset if his top 5 draft projection holds.

* There are so many hidden fantasy gems in this class that you're going to steal in the latter portions of your rookie drafts. My method has been very strong on identifying draft sleepers so keep those names with big star rankings ⭐in mind as we head toward draft season.

* I've placed the players into tiers based on their expected draft capital. It matters (A LOT) where a player is drafted in the draft order to determine what kind of opportunities, minutes, and role the prospect likely gets in the NBA. As you'll see, there are plenty of players in the second-half of my rankings that have MUCH better fantasy stat sets than players in the top half, but where those players are likely to be drafted matters.

* Players are placed in tiers based on how the big media draft boards view these prospects' draft stock at the moment. They are then ranked within that tier based on their fantasy stat sets and their ages.

* The fantasy points projections are based on 1) the prospects' current per-70 possession statistics this season and 2) the "official" NBA fantasy scoring system and the Sleeper default scoring system. These are meant to be rough projections of what the prospects' fantasy points production could look like in the NBA if they got starters' minutes.

Let me know if you have any questions in the comments below. 

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - 2024 NBA Draft Big Board (February Update)

Back again with another NBA Draft Big Board.

Like prior versions, this board uses my battle-tested method for projecting fantasy stat sets (and overall NBA performance) for the consensus top prospects in the 2024 NBA Draft.

The points league Fantasy Point Projections are based on per-70 possession statistics - so they give you a level-playing field perspective on what kind of points league producers these prospects would play if they had the same playing time.

The category league stat set projections use per-70 possession stats and advanced metric thresholds that I've applied across over a decade of prospect evaluation. 

REMEMBER: it matters where players are drafted, so while I like Reed Sheppard's fantasy stat set more than Nikola Topic, I far less confidence that the NBA will draft Reed at the top half of the lottery and - therefore, have less confidence that Reed will be a big minute starter in the NBA. BUT if Reed gets top 5 draft capital, he could move as high as #1 on my rookie draft ranks in June. 

There's still a lot of basketball to be played. Looking forward to keep tracking these prospects and expanding my draft board out to 100+ prospects in the coming months.

If you have questions, post them in the comments below.

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - BETA - NBA Dynasty Trade Calculators

The #1 piece of content that gets requested in dynasty fantasy basketball circles is a viable trade calculator. 

Well, we're making it happen. And you all get to be the very first people to beta test it.

Two separate DYNASTY trade calculators for categories and points leagues with trade values based on my latest dynasty rankings.

To use the calculator, you will need to either go to File/Make a Copy (if you have a Google account) or File/Download. This will allow you to create your own file that you can use. You will not be able to do trades in the links below.

Once you've done that, you can put the players and draft picks involved in your trade on Team A and Team B. The raw trade values will then be put through a formula popularized in the fantasy football world at KeepTradeCut.com.

This formula helps account for two main things:

 1) You won't be able to acquire one elite player by sending over a bunch of mediocre assets (the "stud" factor). Want to acquire an elite player? You'll need to send back QUALITY, not quantity.

2) Roster spaces have value. Again, trading isn't about simple addition. If you're sending another team 8 players, it costs them roster spaces that have value. Again, the focus should be on quality over quantity.

A big shoutout to the random user who posted a trade calculator template on Reddit in the last year. I've tweaked that template heavily to work for fantasy basketball but the foundational work was ENORMOUSLY helpful.

VERY IMPORTANT: The trade calculator will tell you how far apart the trade is in the "VARIANCE" field. If the trade is within an acceptable range, the variance field will turn green to indicate that the trade is acceptably even. 

I'd love to get your feedback, either in the comments below or over direct messages. Suggestions for additional features are also welcome. I would like for this to become a tentpole piece of content and any thoughts are welcome. 

A lot of tweaks will be coming to these BETA trade calculators in the coming weeks. I hope that they're helpful.

CATEGORIES CALCULATOR: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OoMkhY2936TS3ZovrKp_xNu1RR7D7OWKeIf5VbbFhac/edit?usp=sharing

POINTS CALCULATOR: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lNwfMf7QY7chOVa6w3m_ahzYTys7NhgjMYiG4TBiXkA/edit?usp=sharing

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - Post-Trade Deadline Dynasty Rankings

The NBA Trade Deadline was only 24 hours ago - but I'm back with a full rankings update.

It was not the most exciting deadline, but there's plenty of changes from a dynasty perspective. I'm going to try to do a podcast next week to talk through some of the big shifts but feel free to ask questions below in the comments.

-Matt

ALL ACCESS PREVIEW - 2024 NBA Offseason Roster Projections

The NBA trade deadline is tomorrow.

In preparation, I've assembled a board with all 30 NBA teams roster projections for the 2024 offseason. The main objective here is to assess the contract status of every rostered NBA player and where opportunities for more minutes and larger roles may arise.

A few quick notes:

* In most cases, I assume that unrestricted free agents are not returning to their current teams. Some of the major free agents (Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, etc.) are assumed to return to the teams that recently traded for them. Some of the UFAs WILL return to their current teams, but we'll get a better idea of that after the trade deadline since many of those expiring salaries may be traded tomorrow.

* High-profile restricted free agents like Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley are assumed to be returning to their teams. Restricted free agents overwhelmingly sign second contracts with their current teams because offer sheets from other teams are extremely rare.

* So much of this board is going to change tomorrow but this is where we do the work to see where player values are headed in advance of the offseason. This helps us find the next big fantasy breakouts before they happen and will inform who the best "stash" players are after the deadline.

I'll be back with a revised version of this board after the trade deadline.

-Matt

2024 WNBA Roster and Minutes Projections

We're into Day 3 of official WNBA free agency and most of the  free agents are off the board. 

The final landing spots for former WNBA MVPs Nneka Ogwumike and Elena Delle Donne will shake things up again - but here are my current projections for all 12 WNBA rosters.

I started my first WNBA Dynasty league last season and may start another in 2024. If you have interest in joining a Patreon-only dynasty league for the W - let me know!

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - February Dynasty Rankings

The NBA Trade Deadline is one week away - which will decimate these rankings - but that hasn't stopped me from doing a full update for all of you.

Less movement in this one than in some prior versions as player performances start to settle in now that we're halfway through the season - but there are a few BIG changes.

I'll be back with a post-trade deadline update next week - my favorite update of the year.

If you have questions, please post them in the comments below.

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - 2021 and 2022 Pre-Draft Big Boards

I'm digging back into my archives to find content that I created before the 2021 and 2022 NBA Drafts - before we knew where these prospects would be selected, before Summer League, and when my dynasty takes were freshest.

The big takeaway? Assessing fantasy stat sets based on pre-draft statistics can give us a huge advantage in dynasty. We found A LOT of the gems in these classes if you look at players who were assessed as having the best fantasy games.

The 2021 pre-draft top 10 avoided the busts in the class and identified the non-lottery sleeper breakouts in Alperen Sengun and Jalen Johnson. We also loved Franz Wagner even when he was getting mocked outside of the lottery at the time this board was created.

In 2022, we touted Chet as the #1 pick consistently, started the Tari Eason Fan Club, and flagged Vince Williams Jr. as a fantasy sleeper before he was even drafted.

2021 Big Board (Pre-NBA Draft): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_ApNQqiYyPIpLwPSB_tmOELbOM1KDMO9MEwNcpfdcLU/edit?usp=sharing

2022 Big Board (Pre-NBA Draft): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zr52AxgRt3mYSuCp57jKCMlf1klzFPWFkG8BFDftg0o/edit?usp=sharing

These big boards and the underlying analysis in them take months and months of work to assemble but the payout has been consistent. 

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - 2024 NBA Draft Big Board (January 25, 2024)

After previewing my big board in December, I'm back with an update. My top 30 prospects for the 2024 NBA Draft and it is LOADED with advanced stats and fantasy projections.

A few important notes:

* I've placed the players into tiers based on their expected draft capital. It matters (A LOT) where a player is drafted in the draft order to determine what kind of opportunities, minutes, and role the prospect likely gets in the NBA. So while Zach Edey has the best per-possession fantasy stat set in this class, when he's drafted and what kind of minutes he gets in the NBA will be a huge determining factor in his ultimate rank on my board.

* Players are placed in tiers based on how the big media draft boards view these prospects' draft stock at the moment. They are then ranked within that tier based on their fantasy stat sets and their ages. 

* The fantasy points projections are based on 1) the prospects' current per-70 possession statistics this season and 2) the "official" NBA fantasy scoring system and the Sleeper default scoring system. These are meant to be rough projections of what the prospects' fantasy points production could look like in the NBA if they got starters' minutes.

Let me know if you have any questions in the comments below. This is a draft where I'd be fine trading back in a round to try to acquire additional assets because I think we are going to be able to pick off the prospects we like throughout rookie drafts while most managers just go by the real-life draft order. "Bad" drafts make it harder to find the real talent - but the method I use here has been proven going back a decade to find fantasy talent.

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - Industry Consensus Dynasty Rankings (January 2024)

The dynasty community is stronger than ever. This month, I've collected FIFTEEN (15!) different categories dynasty rankings sets that have been updated in the last month and aggregated them into an industry consensus ranking.

Like last month, the categories consensus includes the high and low rankings for each player, as well as the difference between my ranking and the consensus (the "DIFF" column).

And NEW this month: I've compiled my points dynasty rankings with two other points dynasty rankings sets (Hashtag and Basketball Monster's BAZEMORE) to create a points league consensus ranking. Note that BAZEMORE is much lower on older players than other rankings, so you'll see older stars much lower than you'd expect.

These rankings are a good way to see where the trade value could be in your league since the consensus will likely match how your league mates value players. Look for places where my ranking is much higher or lower - that's where you can get the most value in trades.

-Matt 

ALL ACCESS - January Dynasty Rankings

It's been a couple weeks since my last rankings update - and this latest one is a big one.

I'm starting to add in 2024 draft prospects into my rankings for the first time. And this update includes rough value approximations for the consensus top 5 picks (Sarr, Topic, Risacher, Walter, and Williams). 

I'll be adding in other top 10 prospects like Dillingham, Buzelis, Holland, and Sheppard in my next update - but you can see how I felt about them back in Big Board preview.

I'm going to try to be back with another update in the next 2-3 weeks. Also working on a larger Big Board update. 

Let me know if you have questions below in the replies.

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - NBA Dynasty ADP Database

The first content that I ever created was Dynasty ADP during the 19-20 NBA season before the Bubble. I was in dozens of dynasty leagues and found it so frustrating that there was no objective measure of player value for managers to use...so I made it myself.

I've been collecting ADP data ever since - and now I've even gone back to collect dynasty startup draft data from the 2017, 2018, and 2019 offseasons to give a full picture of how player values change over time.

There is SO much analysis to be done here. I can definitely see trends of the kinds of players that get overvalued in dynasty that can help us avoid mistakes in the future. I'll do a podcast to discuss some of the things I'm seeing here.

The most recent ADP is from the dynasty startup drafts that occurred right before this regular season started. I am planning to do a series of mock drafts during the week of the All Star Break next month to add some updated data (you all will get invited to those first).

Let me know if you have any questions below.

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - Industry Consensus Dynasty Rankings (Categories - January 2024)

In the last month, six different industry analysts have updated their dynasty rankings for categories leagues (including me). 

I've compiled all of those rankings into an industry average so you can get a broader view of how players are being valued in dynasty formats.

A couple additional features here:

* I've included the highest and lowest rank for each player - so you can see the range of opinions on each player.

* The "DIFF" column shows how MY ranking varies from the consensus. A positive value means that I value the player MORE than consensus and a negative value means that I value the player LESS than consensus.

Please let me know if I have any questions. If you like these, give this post a "like" and I will provide these updates whenever new rankings come in.

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - December Dynasty Rankings Update (12-30-23)

Happy New Year!

Here is my final dynasty rankings update of 2023 for both Categories and Points formats (note the two different tabs).

The "Change" column shows how much players have moved since my update earlier this month.

Please post any questions below in the comments.

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - NBA Depth Charts (12/17/23)

Here are updated depth charts and rest-of-season minutes projections for all 30 NBA teams. 

Hoping to do another dynasty rankings update in the next 10 days.

Thanks for your continued support and please post any questions in the comments below.

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - Eastern Conference Depth Charts

Here are depth charts for all 15 Eastern Conference teams with minutes projections and an outline of where players fall in the team's rotation. 

These depth charts do not take into account short-term injuries that players will return from this season - they are meant to show how teams value players if the rotation was fully healthy.

I'm going to turn to the Western Conference next and try to do regular updates to this as the season goes on.

Have a great weekend.

-Matt 

📈The NBA Dynasty Report - December 13 2023📈

Quick report with the lines that caught my eye across the NBA, G League, and college basketball.

Have a question about any of these prospects? Post it in the comments below and I'll respond.

📈NBA Prospect Lines of the Night📈

Coby White

27 PTS | 5-10 3PT | 4 REB | 8 AST | 1 STL | 3-5 2PT | 6-6 FT | 35 MIN

Austin Reaves

22 PTS | 4-7 3PT | 5 REB | 8 AST | 3-7 2PT | 4-5 FT | 32 MIN

Dereck Lively II

8 PTS | 8 REB | 2 STL | 3 BLK | 4-7 2PT | 30 MIN

Brandin Podziemski

20 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 11 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 7-10 2PT | 0-1 FT | 29 MIN

Keegan Murray

17 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 3 STL | 6-9 2PT | 5-6 FT | 31 MIN

Jonathan Kuminga

16 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 1 STL | 5-7 2PT | 3-7 FT | 29 MIN

Julian Strawther

16 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 2-4 2PT | 6-8 FT | 23 MIN

Moses Moody

12 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 4 REB | 1-3 2PT | 4-6 FT | 24 MIN

Kobe Brown

7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 1 BLK | 2-2 2PT | 24 MIN

⚡G League Prospect Lines of the Night⚡

Cam Whitmore

33 PTS | 4-10 3PT | 10 REB | 4 AST | 3 STL | 1 BLK | 8-12 2PT | 4-4 FT | 36 MIN

Brice Sensabaugh

10 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 7 REB | 6 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 2-3 2PT | 2-2 FT | 31 MIN

Noah Clowney

20 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 11 REB | 1 STL | 3 BLK | 6-6 2PT | 3-6 FT | 34 MIN

Nikola Jovic

16 PTS | 0-6 3PT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 6-10 2PT | 2-3 FT | 38 MIN

Rayan Rupert

13 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 8 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 3-8 2PT | 2-2 FT | 34 MIN

Usman Garuba

18 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 14 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 9-14 2PT | 0-1 FT | 33 MIN

Colby Jones

9 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 3 STL | 2 BLK | 3-14 2PT | 2-2 FT | 39 MIN

Colin Castleton

14 PTS | 11 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 6-10 2PT | 32 MIN

Jordan Walker

36 PTS | 9-15 3PT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 4-8 2PT | 1-1 FT | 35 MIN

Johnny Juzang

18 PTS | 4-7 3PT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 0-1 2PT | 4-5 FT | 28 MIN

Ricky Council IV

15 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 1 BLK | 3-8 2PT | 31 MIN

D’Moi Hodge

14 PTS | 4-9 3PT | 4 REB | 1 STL | 0-1 2PT | 25 MIN

Markquis Nowell

12 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 3 REB | 15 AST | 3 STL | 1 BLK | 3-6 2PT | 29 MIN

🏓Draft Prospect Lines of the Night🏓

Ron Holland II

28 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 8 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 3 BLK | 8-17 2PT | 5-5 FT | 36 MIN

Matas Buzelis

21 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 8 REB | 2 AST | 3 STL | 2 BLK | 5-7 2PT | 4-4 FT | 30 MIN

Kyle Filipowski

28 PTS | 4-7 3PT | 12 REB | 8 AST | 1 STL | 3 BLK | 6-9 2PT | 4-5 FT | 35 MIN

Dalton Knecht

7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 1 BLK | 1-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 28 MIN

Tyler Smith

8 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 6 REB | 1 STL | 3-5 2PT | 1-1 FT | 12 MIN

Izan Almansa

4 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 9 REB | 2 AST | 3 BLK | 2-7 2PT | 0-1 FT | 30 MIN

Jared McCain

13 PTS | 3-4 3PT | 4 REB | 2 STL | 2-4 2PT | 33 MIN

Mark Mitchell

14 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 5-13 2PT | 4-5 FT | 26 MIN

ALL ACCESS - 2024 NBA Draft Big Board Preview

I've spent the last two weeks digging into the 2024 NBA Draft class and I've returned with some big takeaways.

First, a couple warnings: 

-SMALL SAMPLE SIZE WARNING. We are VERY early in the process - the sample size is small and the college prospects have played a majority of their games against inferior competition. I usually see that college prospects' fantasy projections dip as the season goes on, so be cautious not to overvalue early season numbers from college prospects.

-THIS IS ONLY THE CONSENSUS LOTTERY PROSPECTS. If you follow my work, you know I'm going to dig into every draft eligible prospect by the time the draft rolls around next offseason. For now, I'm starting with the 14 prospects that the big media draft boards have as consensus lottery picks right now. Future editions will add in prospects like Kel'el Ware, Dalton Knecht, Justin Edwards, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Bub Carrington who just missed the cut for this lottery preview.

Second, here are my big takeaways:

-Nikola Topić is the 1.01 of the 2024 class. Topić's performance for Mega across 14 games as an 18-year old should have him at the top of every NBA Draft board. He's the youngest top prospect in this class and is already a pick-n-roll maestro against grown men - we've seen this kind of teenage production before in professional leagues from players like Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Alperen Sengun, and Victor Wembanyama - and we know what that means. Some of your league mates might think this class has no crown jewel or they may think the top prize is Alex Sarr or Isaiah Collier - they're wrong. 

-Isaiah Collier's fantasy stat set is a problem. Until flatlining against Long Beach State, there was a lot of buzz around Collier as the #1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. He may still end up going #1 because of the league's bias toward prospects who play on top NCAA programs, but he has no business going #1 in your dynasty rookie draft. Maybe he improves the three point volume, hits more free throws, and stops being a turnover machine - but I don't like what I see so far.

-There are going to be some great fantasy role players in this draft. You'll see I have players like Kyle Filipowski, Reed Sheppard, Ryan Dunn and Rob Dillingham at the back-end of this list despite projecting them all to have strong to elite fantasy stat sets. That's because the big media draft gurus aren't all on board with them as lottery picks on their boards and they may not end up getting lottery draft capital. With that said, I love all four of them from a fantasy perspective and I'm eager to see where they land this offseason.

-This is going to be a draft where we lap the field. The narrative around this draft is that it's a bad class - and that very well may be true from an NBA talent evaluation perspective. The draft lacks the usual star talent you see at the top. BUT from a fantasy perspective, there is going to be so much value that most of your league is not going to see. That's why we do this work so early and why I'll keep doing it for the next seven months. This is where we win and I hope you all stick with me through the season as I keep updating my board.

-Matt

ALL ACCESS - December Dynasty Rankings (v. 1.0)

It's been a little over three weeks since my last dynasty rankings update, so here is a full refresh for all players on all 30 teams.

Please remember there are two tabs. One for categories leagues (9-category H2H, roto) and one for points leagues (e.g. Sleeper leagues).

Also, the "change" column shows the difference between my rankings before the season compared to now. 

I've updated every player photo but there's still a lot more work to be done. I'm going to try to come back with an update in a couple weeks that will incorporate all of the features that I've had before (ADP, consensus rankings, player notes). 

Feel free to reply with questions or send them on the Discord.

📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 27 2023📈

Scoot Henderson is back. The Magic’s young stars shined, and Victor Wembanyama is everything we hoped for and more.

8 games on Sunday.

A full breakdown of all the top prospect performances AND the top lines from last night in the G League.

If you enjoy these reports, please give them a “like” so I know you’re reading them. Given how much time they take me to write, I want to be sure they’re worth your time and attention.

POR 102 @ MIL 108

🔸This is the best Scoot Henderson has looked this season - 3 for 4 on threes, including a nice stepback over Damian Lillard. He appeared more composed and in control than in prior appearances as the Blazers spread on-ball reps across the rotation rather than the heavy focus on Scoot we saw in the first two weeks. Keep buying if there’s any unfounded panic on Scoot - he’s going to be a star.

🔸Shaedon Sharpe’s best game in a couple weeks - 17 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 6-14 2PT | 2-3 FT | 37 MIN. Sharpe has developed a nice floater which he had working in this one. He was swallowed up at the rim by Brook Lopez on a few occasions but once he figures out how to use his elite athleticism to finish through contests, it’s wheels up to stardom.

🔸Toumani Camara started but picked up four fouls by the third quarter, limiting him to 17 MIN - but he did go 2 for 2 from three, putting him at 4 for 6 in his last two games. If he can hit the three consistently, his defense can keep him on the floor for big minutes.

🔸Andre Jackson Jr. got another start with Middleton out but played only 12 minutes (0 PTS, 1 REB). He’s obviously not ready for big minutes as an offensive player but it’s telling that the Bucks are trying to feed him minutes with the starters to accelerate his development, while MarJon Beauchamp (9 minutes) has faded to the back of the rotation.

MIN 119 @ MEM 97

🔸Santi Aldama couldn’t hit a three against the Wolves - 1 for 7 - and he’s been ice cold from outside in his last three (5-20, 25%). He’s making up for it with an improved driving game and hitting mid-rangers (6-11 in his last three games) but the 3PT shooting has to improve for Aldama to have consistent fantasy value.

🔸After struggling from three all season, David Roddy has gone 4-9 in last two games. Maybe it’s nothing but it’s the first time he’s hit threes in back-to-back games all season, so we’ll keep monitoring.

🔸Ziaire Williams was back in the rotation (18 min) and registered 11 PTS and went 2-for-3 from 3PT with little else in the box score. Ziaire is only 22 years old, so we can’t write the book on him yet, but Year 3 hasn’t shown us many flashes of upside beyond being a volume 3PT shooter.

🔸A couple of garbage time minutes for Josh Minott and Leonard Miller. They remain strong stashes in leagues rostering 175-200+ players but it’s unlikely either cracks the rotation unless the Wolves encounter more injuries.

CHA 117 @ ORL 130

🔸LaMelo Ball appeared to suffer a significant right ankle sprain on a rough fall in the second quarter - the same ankle that was repeatedly sprained and ultimately fractured last season. Ball said at Media Day that he’d wear ankle braces this season - like Steph Curry did early in his career after repeated ankle issues - but it’s unclear if Ball maintained wearing them into the season. We await news of the severity of the sprain, but this is obviously a bad development.

🔸We’ve been calling for the Franz Wagner breakout game all month based on the underlying metrics and it happened here - 30 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 9-12 2PT | 6-9 FT in 35 minutes. His usage is at a career-high 25.3% and he’s driving to the rim and drawing fouls consistently - 84th percentile drive rate, 77th percentile foul drawing rate. Now that he’s finishing at the rim consistently (26-34, 76.5% in his last four games), expect more big lines like this going forward.

🔸Paolo Banchero has been wildly consistent over the last five games - scoring 23, 23, 23, 25, and 24 points, bolstered by 10-19 3PT shooting (52.6%). If this 3PT shooting is real (43.6% on the season), Paolo is about to have a massive Year 2 breakout campaign.

🔸Brandon Miller will get extended run with LaMelo out and had the 3rd 20+ point game of his career against the Magic. Miller is 11-20 (55%) from three in his last five games and continues to find his shot in the midrange (71st percentile efficiency, 72nd percentile volume). Add in five steals in his last five games and you can see the outlines of a fantasy breakout on the horizon.

🔸Mark Williams was limited to 22 minutes because of foul trouble but still had a solid 12 PTS | 6 REB | 1 ST | 1 BLK. Williams has actually reduced his foul rate from 4.1 fouls per 36 to 3.2 fouls per 36 this season. He’ll bounce back quickly.

🔸Cole Anthony - 30 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 7 REB | 7 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 8-13 2PT | 11-12 FT - is going to be a starting point guard in the NBA, even if it isn’t with the Orlando Magic. His free throw rate is 95th percentile and his drive rate is 93rd percentile - both huge indicators of star potential. He’s played 29+ minutes in five of ORL’s last six games and the Magic would be wise to keep him there even after Fultz’s eventual return.

🔸Jalen Suggs continued to look like the best defensive guard in the league and his steal rate is at a career-high 3.3% (97th percentile). Solid efficiency at the rim (62.5%) and from three (36.2%) are making him passable in the halfcourt offensively, which is more than enough to keep on the court for 30+ minutes a night as a starter across his prime.

🔸Anthony Black started again but scored only 2 points in 15 minutes. He hasn’t hit a three pointer since November 9 and looks like he would benefit from some time with the Lakeland Magic after Fultz returns.

🔸The Magic have been giving spot minutes to Caleb Houstan over the last two weeks but there’s nothing to see here from a fantasy perspective - a 3PT specialist with nothing else to his fantasy game.

PHO 116 @ NYK 113

🔸These reports will continue to give credit to Immanuel Quickley until he’s fully appreciated. 18 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 7-8 FT in 29 minutes. Quickley has a 63.2 true shooting % on drives this season (81st percentile) and his drive rate and foul drawing all scream for more minutes. A team with cap space would be wise to throw a massive offer sheet to IQ in the offseason to make the Knicks match.

🔸The Quentin Grimes dream appears to be dead - for now. Only 20 minutes here and he hasn’t cracked 30 minutes since November 3rd. His steal rate and 3PT shooting are at career-highs but averaging 24 mpg on 12.1% usage just isn’t fantasy viable.

ATL 103 @ BOS 113

🔸Onyeka Okongwu is averaging only 22.8 minutes per game and his raw stat averages aren’t going to excite fantasy managers (9.0 PTS | 6.8 REB | 1.5 AST | 0.9 BLK) but he’s improved his efficiency at the rim this season (71.7%), is shooting 91.4% from the free throw line, and is averaging 1.3 blocks per game across his last nine outings, despite sharing minutes with Capela. Enjoy solid production now and breakout production once the Hawks finally make Onyeka a big minute starter.

🔸No Jalen Johnson until January - my heart hurts. But we did get a little more AJ Griffin in this game - 12 minutes - and might get more in future games if Wesley Matthews, who went to the locker room in this one - misses time.

🔸Neemias Queta has been a deep dynasty stash for a few years now based on his massive block rate at Utah State (13.25%) and in the G League. Queta played 15 minutes against the Hornets with Porzingis out and posted 7 PTS | 10 REB | 1 STL. I don’t expect Queta - who is on a two-way contract with Boston - to play over Luke Kornet most nights, but he should be on your watch list for the per-minute upside.

TOR 102 @ CLE 105

🔸Scottie Barnes (15 PTS | 8 REB | 3 AST) has struggled from the midrange (38.9% on 86th percentile volume) in recent weeks after a hot start, which has dragged his scoring numbers down. The 3PT shooting leap continues - 37.6% on increased volume - and he registered another block against the Cavs and has 9 steals in his last four games. He’s not a finished product at 22 years old but the current version is extremely impressive.

🔸Evan Mobley (12 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 14 REB | 1 AST | 2 BLK | 5-13 2PT | 2-2 FT) hasn’t hit a three pointer since October 28th and he struggled on a high volume of midrange attempts in this game (3 for 8). Like Scottie Barnes, Mobley is not yet in his prime and development is NOT linear - meaning a leap could come in Year 4 or beyond - it just hasn’t happened yet.

🔸Craig Porter Jr. was out of the rotation as the Cavs focused on big minutes for their starting five and a limited bench behind them. He’s a clear hold in mid-to-deep dynasty formats and I’d expect him to be in the rotation again soon.

CHI 109 @ BKN 118

🔸Patrick Williams started and posted his most efficient line of the season - 20 PTS | 4-5 3PT | 4 REB | 3-4 2PT | 2-2 FT in 35 minutes. Consistently hitting catch-and-shoot threes like this would be revolutionary for Williams’ long-term trajectory and he continues to have nice scoring flashes on drives. His defense has been as good as ever, so there’s potential for the starting role to hold as the Bulls’ defensive rating has fallen significantly from last season.

🔸Coby White went 5-12 from three on his way to 23 PTS against the Nets - his third 20+ point game in the Bulls’ last four. He’s averaging 36 minutes per game across that span and has evolved into one of the better young, high-volume 3PT shooters in the game. The playmaking is solid but unspectacular but this level of shooting should keep Coby in big minutes.

🔸Nic Claxton was out and we finally got 27 minutes for Day’Ron Sharpe, who had a solid night (9 PTS | 9 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 4-5 2PT). Sharpe even attempted (and missed) a couple 3PT - the Nets have been attempting to stretch him out to three since his rookie season. It’s been a good third year so far for Sharpe who appears to have a long-term floor as a strong backup center.

🔸Another quality showing from Trendon Watford (11 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 4-6 2PT ) in 17 minutes off the bench. Watford probably doesn’t stick in the rotation once the Nets are healthy again but he’s flashed a strong fantasy game at 23 years old across his three seasons so far and remains a solid stash in leagues rostering 300+ players.

SAS 120 @ DEN 132

🔸Victor Wembanyama played only 25 minutes and posted 22 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 6 STL | 4 BLK | 5-12 2PT | 6-7 FT. The Spurs’ clogged offense is forcing him into too many midrange shots, but that’s why there’s so much upside long-term - this is Wemby playing in a terrible offense and a non-optimized role. Once the Spurs put even adequate playmaking and spacing around him, Victor isn’t leaving the top 5 in fantasy production for the rest of his prime.

🔸Jeremy Sochan left with knee soreness after 17 minutes played (4 PTS | 2 REB | 3 AST | 2-5 2PT). It’s been hard to find a bright spot in Sochan’s second season but I remain confident that much better years are ahead once the Spurs move him into a proper role for his talent.

🔸15 points on 3-5 3PT shooting from Malaki Branham in only 25 minutes. He was 2-21 from three in his prior six games so this was a much-needed showing. If the 3PT shooting doesn’t make a leap, Branham won’t make it as a prospect.

🔸Charles Bassey got to play 15 minutes in this game and delivered (9 PTS | 6 REB | 2 AST | 1 BLK). He’s one of the best per-minute REB and BLK producers in the NBA, which makes him a premium stash option in case he ever gets a larger role.

🔸Two 3PT, four AST, and three STL for Julian Strawther in 19 minutes. His role has been entirely inconsistent so far but I think he settles in as a long-term rotation wing for the Nuggets in Year 2 and beyond if he figures out NBA defense.

🔸Extended action for Peyton Watson (22 min) with Aaron Gordon out, but the offensive role remains minimal (13.9% usage). Watson blocked 2 shots - boosting him to a 95th percentile block rate on the season. Newly 21 years old - we’re going to need patience with Watson, but I still think he can be a starter in his prime.

⚡G League Lightning Round⚡

Ron Holland II

24 PTS | 3-4 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 6-12 2PT | 3-4 FT | 25 MIN

Taylor Hendricks

13 PTS | 3-8 3PT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 3 STL | 2 BLK | 1-8 2PT | 1-2 FT | 33 MIN

Jett Howard

17 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 7-10 2PT | 32 MIN

Brice Sensabaugh

14 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 2-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 25 MIN

Izan Almansa

11 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 9 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4-6 2PT | 0-3 FT | 33 MIN

GG Jackson

12 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 5 REB | 2 BLK | 3-8 2PT | 3-3 FT | 36 MIN

Orlando Robinson

13 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 13 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 4 BLK | 5-13 2PT | 0-2 FT | 27 MIN

Dominick Barlow

28 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 11-13 2PT | 2-4 FT | 35 MIN

Tyler Smith

12 PTS | 1-7 3PT | 8 REB | 6 AST | 2-10 2PT | 3-4 FT | 31 MIN

Colin Castleton

16 PTS | 12 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 7-9 2PT | 2-3 FT | 24 MIN

Sidy Cissoko

11 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 3 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4-4 2PT | 21 MIN

Rayan Rupert

19 PTS | 3-7 3PT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 5-13 2PT | 0-3 FT | 33 MIN

Blake Wesley

17 PTS | 3-9 3PT | 6 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-7 2PT | 2-4 FT | 30 MIN

Wendell Moore Jr.

15 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 13 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 4-10 2PT | 1-1 FT | 39 MIN

Charles Bediako

8 PTS | 10 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 25 MIN

Jason Preston

16 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 13 REB | 12 AST | 2 STL | 7-12 2PT | 1-2 FT | 37 MIN

Dereon Seabron

22 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 6-8 2PT | 2-5 FT | 38 MIN

Johnny Juzang

15 PTS | 3-5 3PT | 2 REB | 3-3 2PT | 34 MIN

📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 26 2023📈

Six NBA games on Saturday.

Plus, a huge slate of G League games including some big performances from the 2024 NBA Draft prospects on the G League Ignite.

PHI 127 @ OKC 123

🔸Remember the pre-draft discourse about how Chet Holmgren would get broken in half against centers like Joel Embiid? 33 PTS | 5-11 3PT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 3 BLK | 8-10 2PT | 2-2 FT in 32 minutes. We’re now 16 games deep into Chet looking like a 50/40/90 shooter and he’s just scratching the surface of his scoring ability off the dribble. Time to reassess the fantasy ceiling for Chet, yet again…

🔸The Thunder know infinitely more about the NBA’s current investigation into Josh Giddey than the public does and they chose to play him in this game. That doesn’t confirm anything - but it’s a data point suggesting Giddey may not face any discipline.

🔸Paul Reed was back to only 11 minutes as the straight backup to Joel Embiid and Jaden Springer continues to be outside the rotation in favor of 21 minutes of Patrick Beverley. It won’t stay like this forever so we continue to stash these two and wait for their roles to expand.

🔸Cason Wallace got the start but registered just an assist and a steal in 14 minutes. I remain optimistic about his future but his offensive role is microscopic right now (10.3% usage).

MIA 97 @ BKN 112

🔸Another nice game from Jaime Jaquez Jr. - 18 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 5 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 6-12 2PT in 31 minutes (and he started with Jimmy Butler out). He’s now 22-55 (40%) from three this season after hitting only 33 3PT in his entire senior season at UCLA. His college steal rate is translating to the NBA so far (80th percentile) so there’s enough of a stat set here to support future top 100ish seasons if he’s going to be a 32+ minute starter in his prime and a top 150 player if he’s just a rotation player.

🔸The Heat were missing half of their rotation so we got 17 minutes of Nikola Jovic, who scored only 1 point but registered 6 REB and 5 AST. The playmaking from a 6’10” forward is what makes Jovic an intriguing prospect, but - at only 20 years old - we’re probably still a year or two away from him being a viable rotation player on a contending team.

🔸Dariq Whitehead and Noah Clowney have been playing down in the G League (with mixed results) and made their NBA debuts in 3 minute cameos here. Neither looks ready for NBA minutes but we’ll be watching their Long Island Nets’ performances closely.

🔸Orlando Robinson wasn’t available because he was on assignment in the G League. Make sure to check out the big line he had in the G League Lightning Round below.

ATL 136 @ WAS 108

🔸Jalen Johnson looks like he’ll miss some time after an ugly fall on his wrist in the second quarter. There’s no impact on his long-term outlook here - he’s the strongest of holds in all dynasty leagues and should be a trade target if any managers get impatient during his injury recovery.

🔸Bilal Coulibaly played 32 minutes thanks to extended garbage time, but the line was quiet - 7 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK. Don’t judge Bilal based on the box score - the flashes are what matters and he continues to show maturity beyond his years off-the-dribble and as a finisher. The ceiling here is very high, it’s just going to take time.

🔸Even with Jalen Johnson’s early exit, we only got 6 minutes of AJ Griffin and I don’t expect him to gain playing time in the coming weeks. I’m still optimistic about Griffin as a long-term, fringe starter because of his frame and shooting ability, but there may not be enough of a fantasy stat set here for him to be a hold in shallow formats rostering fewer than 150 players.

LAL 121 @ CLE 115

🔸Evan Mobley is dominating at the rim again (7-9 vs. LAL; 72% on the season) and his improvement at the free throw line continues (11-12 in his last three games; 75.9% on the season). He hasn’t attempted a three in the last five games but the assist rate is a career-high 15.4% (62nd percentile). I’m encouraged.

🔸With Cam Reddish out, we got a start for Max Christie Jr. and a solid line - 12 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 3-3 2PT in 33 minutes. It’s encouraging to see this level of faith in Max, especially after a rough start to this season where he’s shot only 25% from three. I think Christie Jr. can be a long-term rotation player with an underwhelming fantasy stat set and I’m not sold on starter upside.

🔸Craig Porter Jr. stayed in the rotation with Mitchell, Okoro, and LeVert all active (17 MIN) and this is what his role should look like going forward. The swing skill to watch for CPJ is the volume of his 3PT shooting - he’s had only 8th percentile 3PT volume so far (1.5 attempts per 75 possessions), which needs to come up significantly if he’s going to reach his full potential. The rest of his stat set is eye-popping, but it’s hard for a 6-2 guard to play big minutes without an outside shot.

NOR 100 @ UTA 105

🔸Walker Kessler returned and played 21 minutes off the bench. The production was what we came to expect from Walker last season - 11 PTS | 11 REB | 1 STL | 2 BLK. We can probably write off the early struggles to the injury in the season opener. Omer Yurtseven got the start here but Kessler should be back into his normal role in short order.

🔸Keyonte George is struggling to score inside the arc like most rookie guards, but the 3PT shooting is coming on (7-15 in his last two games) and he’s had 5+ assists in 7 of his 8 starts. He’s atrocious on defense but that’s also standard for a rookie PG - I am seeing a trajectory as a long-term starting PG who could peak with top 50 fantasy seasons.

🔸The three was falling again for Jordan Hawkins (5-12) and he logged his third 20+ point game of his rookie campaign. Hawkins is a special shooting prospect who is averaging 8.6 catch-and-shoot three pointers per 36 minutes (99th percentile). The spacing he provides should keep him in a 20+ minute rotation role even once the Pels are healthy - but I still don’t see a well-rounded fantasy stat set here for the long-term.

🔸If only we could merge Dyson Daniels and Jordan Hawkins into one player. Daniels can’t shoot from outside (0-6 vs. UTA; 27.3% on the season), but everything else we want for fantasy is there - 6 REB | 5 AST | 6 STL | 1 BLK. I think legendary shooting coach Fred Vinson eventually gets Dyson to be a competent catch-and-shoot 3PT shooter and the defense and playmaking are good enough to keep Daniels in the rotation while the shooting develops.

DAL 88 @ LAC 107

🔸It sounds like Dereck Lively II should be ok after taking a scary fall in the Mavs’ last game. He missed this one but we hopefully get him back next week.

🔸The Mavs are leaning hard on veterans - Jaden Hardy (8 MIN) and Josh Green (9 MIN) barely played against the Clippers despite this game being a blowout. Both deserve more minutes than this but we can’t expect Jason Kidd to have logical rotations. O-Max Prosper appeared in garbage time but he won’t be in the rotation anytime soon.

🔸Shoutout to Bones Hyland who got less than four minutes in garbage time and immediately got up four shots. Bones isn’t in the rotation and will need the Clips to move on from Westbrook in the offseason to secure a role again.

⚡G League Lightning Round⚡

Cam Whitmore

23 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4-7 2PT | 3-3 FT | 27 MIN

Ron Holland II

18 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 6 REB | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 9-17 2PT | 0-2 FT | 30 MIN

Gradey Dick

2 PTS | 0-6 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1-6 2PT | 34 MIN

Izan Almansa

22 PTS | 10 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 9-10 2PT | 2-4 FT | 27 MIN

Orlando Robinson

21 PTS | 17 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 9-12 2PT | 2-5 FT | 34 MIN

Patrick Baldwin Jr.

17 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 10 REB | 2 AST | 4 BLK | 4-5 2PT | 24 MIN

Tyler Smith

15 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 6-12 2PT | 0-1 FT | 25 MIN

Colby Jones

20 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 4-10 2PT | 2-2 FT | 39 MIN

Amari Bailey

18 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 6-9 2PT | 2-2 FT | 25 MIN

Wendell Moore Jr.

18 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 2 REB | 5 AST | 4 STL | 1 BLK | 4-10 2PT | 2-2 FT | 39 MIN

Isaiah Wong

30 PTS | 6-9 3PT | 2 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 5-10 2PT | 2-2 FT | 32 MIN

Jacob Toppin

30 PTS | 4-9 3PT | 8 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 6-11 2PT | 3-3 FT | 39 MIN

Colin Castleton

27 PTS | 12 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 10-11 2PT | 4-4 FT | 26 MIN

Terquavion Smith

25 PTS | 4-11 3PT | 3 REB | 3 AST | 5-6 2PT | 2-2 FT | 35 MIN

Jordan Miller

23 PTS | 4-6 3PT | 3 REB | 2 STL | 5-9 2PT | 1-1 FT | 34 MIN

Ricky Council IV

20 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 6 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 3-6 2PT | 3-3 FT | 37 MIN

Seth Lundy

18 PTS | 4-7 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 1-5 2PT | 4-4 FT | 35 MIN

Oscar Tshiebwe

15 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 17 REB | 2 AST | 6-12 2PT | 2-5 FT | 29 MIN

Miles Norris

10 PTS | 2-7 3PT | 7 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 2-7 2PT | 32 MIN

Jalen Slawson

8 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 3-5 2PT | 2-4 FT | 34 MIN

📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 25 2023📈

10 games on Friday and some massive prospect performances.

And don’t make sure to check out the top lines from Friday’s G League slate.

BOS 96 @ ORL 113

🔸Paolo Banchero (23 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 7 REB | 5 AST | 8-10 2PT | 1-2 FT | 35 MIN) started slow this season but is now taking a big step forward in Year 2. He’s improved his efficiency at all three levels - especially from three (44%) - and we’re finally starting to see some of his midrange attempts switched to more 3PT (11 3PTA in last two games). The FT% is still a huge anchor but he has enough touch that I think that improves with time.

🔸Franz Wagner can’t hit a three right now (1-6 vs. BOS; 28.2 3PT% on the season), but his relentless rim pressure on drives is resulting in the leap at the rim we’ve been waiting for (7-11 in this game, 18-28 [64.2%] in his last three games). Add in improved defensive playmaking and I think we’re about to see a huge third season from Franz.

🔸A quiet game from Jalen Suggs in 28 minutes but he was 3-4 from three and is now shooting a competent 35.9 3PT% and 83.3 FT% on the season.  He’s also registered at least one steal in every single game since the Magic’s opener. I don’t know if there’s another offensive leap beyond this type of off-ball player but, even if there isn’t, Suggs is going to be a strong contributor for a long time.

🔸Anthony Black started and then got a quick hook (6 MIN). It feels like he’s out of the rotation once Fultz returns and needs some time before he can contribute on a team that now has playoff aspirations.

PHO 110 @ MEM 89

🔸After fading into the background in his last game, Santi Aldama had big volume in this one (21 PTS | 3-10 3PT | 6-10 2PT | 36 MIN). Expect more games like this until Morant returns with Jaren Jackson Jr. struggling mightily.

🔸David Roddy with a strong performance (14 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 27 MIN). The defensive playmaking has trended up to average levels this season - but the 3PT shooting has been abysmal (23.8 3PT% on 36th percentile volume). EPM likes his defensive contributions (81st percentile) and that’s consistent with the eye test - he’s been far more competent on that end than he was a rookie. I’m on the fence on whether Roddy can be a long-term rotation piece for Memphis but fairly certain he’s not going to ever be a consistent starter.

🔸Ziaire Williams was out of the rotation here - which was inevitable after 14 games with 48% true shooting. This was Ziaire’s big opportunity to secure a long-term role on the Grizzlies and he just isn’t ready.

MIA 98 @ NYK 100

🔸Immanuel Quickley played only 26 minutes but filled it up (20 PTS | 4-8 3PT). Quickley is one of the games elite drivers (90th percentile drives per 36 min) and elite pull-up 3PT shooters (93rd percentile volume). It’s only a matter of time until IQ is in a big starting role - whether in New York or elsewhere - he’s too good to be wasted on the bench.

🔸Jaime Jaquez Jr. came off the bench but played starter’s minutes and continued to fill the stat sheet despite cold 3PT shooting (15 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 5 REB | 4 AST | 1 AST | 5-11 2PT | 2-2 FT). The 3PT shooting volume continues to be a revelation and gives me confidence that Jaime is going to be a long-term starter for the Heat.

CHI 108 @ TOR 121

🔸Scottie Barnes posted another double-double (13 PTS | 10 REB) with 6 assists - and he blocked two shots (his first blocks in the last week). The 3PT volume is way up (25th percentile last season, 50th percentile this season) but it’s notable that the Raptors are spreading shots across their rotation lately.

🔸Patrick Williams is still coming off the bench (22 MIN) but he’s been better in that role (12 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 5 REB | 1 STL). I’d like to see him on a new team with a fresh start.

🔸After scoring 29 PTS in his last G League game (and shooting 5-9 from three), Julian Phillips made a brief appearance for the Bulls here and is a prospect to watch if this outside shooting leap is real. He shot 23.9% on limited volume at Tennessee but his defensive ceiling is huge, he’s a plus athlete, and a consistent shot could make him into big minute rotation player or possible starter.

DET 113 @ IND 136

🔸Predictably, Cade Cunningham had a big scoring night (31 PTS | 2-4 3PT) against the Pacers’ awful defense, but the efficiency inside the arc continues to be a sore point as every team knows to collapse on Cade without fear of the Pistons hitting a three. It looks like Bojan Bogdanovic could return next week, which should give us a better view into Cade’s true efficiency level in the half court.

🔸Jaden Ivey is back! Cold from three in this one (1-6 3PT) but 25 PTS on 8-10 shooting inside the arc and drawing fouls at a strong clip (6-9 FT). After being horrendous at the rim as a rookie, Ivey is shooting 79.4% at the rim (91st percentile) this season. With his athleticism, that’s an absolute game-changer that unlocks his star upside. The final test is whether he keeps starting and playing around the 32 minutes he had in this game when Bojan returns.

🔸Welcome back, Jalen Duren. 29 minutes off the bench and a double-double (13 PTS | 13 REB). I love his connective passing (4 AST) and the free throw shooting (3-4 in this game; 75% on the season) looks improved.

🔸Bennedict Mathurin came off the bench again but played 31 minutes and scored 15 points with a relatively empty fantasy stat line. He continues to struggle at the rim (46.9%) and is drawing fouls at a much lower rate this year, which is what made us so excited about his upside as a rookie.

🔸Marcus Sasser should play over Killian Hayes but he’s not right now (5 MIN) - much better days are ahead but the playing time is going to be inconsistent this season.

🔸Isaiah Jackson played with Aaron Nesmith out and blocked three shots in 19 minutes. I don’t expect him to be in the rotation when Nesmith returns but it’s encouraging that Carlisle was willing to play him in two-big lineups.

SAC 124 @ MIN 111

🔸Kessler Edwards is playing with Keegan Murray out and the returns were solid (10 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 1 STL | 18 MIN). I think he can be a rotation wing but probably not a fantasy-relevant prospect.

🔸There was some hope that Jaden McDaniels’ injury might lead Kyle Anderson into more minutes at SF, but that hasn’t happened and - accordingly - both Josh Minott and Leonard Miller have been DNP-CDs in the last two games.

WAS 128 @ MIL 131

🔸Bilal Coulibaly is out with a knee bruise so we got 33 minutes of Corey Kispert and he went 6-10 from three for 20 points. At 24 years old, there isn’t much hope for Kispert to expand his stat set beyond big 3PT games like this.

🔸6 PTS and 5 REB in 12 minutes for Johnny Davis - had a nice driving layup in transition and the plus-rebounding from Wisconsin popped here, but I remain unenthused about his chances to become more than a low-end rotation guard.

🔸The Bucks are searching for some replacements in their rotation with Khris Middleton now out with Achilles tendon soreness and Jae Crowder out indefinitely. Andre Jackson Jr. has appeared in the Bucks last 10 games and it feels like a bigger opportunity is coming for him soon - a strong stash in 250+ player leagues because of his strong fantasy stat set.

DEN 86 @ HOU 105

🔸Alperen Şengün played a career-high 43 minutes in a dominant win over Nikola Jokic and the defending-champion Denver Nuggets. Even I didn’t expect to write that sentence this season. This is becoming Al-P’s standard line (21 PTS | 15 REB | 8 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK) and he’s now registered at least one block in 6 of his last 7 games. Oh - and he’s now up to 87th percentile in Defensive EPM. There’s a legitimate argument for Şengün as a top 10 dynasty asset.

🔸Another strong game from Jalen Green - 25 PTS | 3-8 3PT | 5 REB | 3 STL | 7-10 2PT in 36 minutes and a big win over the Nuggets. The big change? He’s 13-16 at the rim in his last three games. The star indicators are still there - 90th percentile drive rate, 81st percentile foul drawing, and 92nd percentile pull-up 3PT volume. I’m not confident in it - but the Green’s highest-end outcomes are still on the table.

🔸Jabari Smith Jr. continues to be efficient from the field (78 eFG% vs. DEN) and had a career-high 15 rebounds. The volume is going to be limited on a team with this many other options but if he can be this efficient, he can be a strong fantasy contributor with upside to expand his shot volume in his prime.

SAS 112 @ GSW 118

🔸Our expectations are so high for Victor Wembanyama that this strong line - 22 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 9 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 7-12 2PT | 5-5 FT - probably doesn’t generate much buzz. Nice to see more attempts at the rim than midrange in this one and this game was a preview of the elite foul drawing and free-throw shooting we can expect from Victor in future years.

🔸There’s been no improvement in Jeremy Sochan’s steal rate this season and his block rate has declined significantly as he defends on the perimeter more with Wemby and Zach Collins patrolling the interior. In the future, I think we see Sochan move inside more defensively and operate as a disruptive help defender - similar to what Scottie Barnes has transitioned to this season. That should boost his defensive stats and fill out his stat set in his prime.

🔸I had relatively high hopes for Malaki Branham as a three-level scoring prospect but the only real positives this season have been his efficiency from midrange (72nd percentile) and 88.9 FT% on limited attempts at the line. He’s only 20 years old but needs to knock down threes and show some ability to get to the rim (13th percentile rim attempts) if he wants to become a rotation regular.

🔸An efficient outing from Jonathan Kuminga in 20 minutes - 12 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 4-5 2PT - but we hoped for more while Draymond was suspended. I remain optimistic about him growing into a starting role but the 3PT shooting has regressed so far this season (18.2%) and the defensive playmaking has never emerged.

🔸Moses Moody got a token start (17 MIN | 9 PTS | 1-1 3PT) and he’s shown enough to deserve more consistent minutes - demonstrating significantly-improved help defense. He probably tops out as a 3-and-D, multi-year starter and his fantasy upside will be dictated by whether his current steal rate (88th percentile) can hold.

🔸Limited minutes for both of the Warriors’ rookies, Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis. I think Podz sticks in the rotation but the minutes won’t be consistent enough to matter in fantasy this season. I could see him moving into a much larger role next season in the event CP3 heads to another team or retires - he’s a must-roster in all dynasty leagues.

NOR 116 @ LAC 106

🔸Dyson Daniels started again - despite Jose Alvarado’s return - and played 36 minutes. He’s registered a steal in each of his last six games and has 5+ assists in five of his last six. Dyson will be back on the bench once CJ McCollum returns but it looks like he’ll play ahead of Alvarado and maintain at least a solid rotation role.

🔸Jordan Hawkins’ minutes have declined in each of his last four games and this role (20 MIN) feels like what we should expect once the Pels’ rotation is healthy.

⚡G League Lightning Round⚡

Cam Whitmore

25 PTS | 2-10 3PT | 6 REB | 4 AST | 9-15 2PT | 1-3 FT | 39 MIN

Taylor Hendricks

10 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 8 REB | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 2-4 2PT | 3-4 FT | 35 MIN

Brice Sensabaugh

9 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 2 REB | 5 AST | 0-2 2PT | 28 MIN

Jett Howard

8 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 3 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 0-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 32 MIN

Emoni Bates

29 PTS | 5-10 3PT | 3 REB | 2 STL | 4 BLK | 3-12 2PT | 4-6 FT | 35 MIN

Rayan Rupert

24 PTS | 5-9 3PT | 12 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-7 2PT | 2-2 FT | 34 MIN

Amari Bailey

22 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 8-15 2PT | 2-2 FT | 28 MIN

Sidy Cissoko

14 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 8 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4-9 2PT | 33 MIN

Jordan Walsh

14 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-5 2PT | 1-1 FT | 31 MIN

Johnny Juzang

24 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 5 REB | 3 STL | 6-8 2PT | 3-3 FT | 31 MIN

Dominick Barlow

22 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 6-11 2PT | 1 BLK | 32 MIN

JD Davison

15 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 3-13 2PT | 3-4 FT | 36 MIN

Blake Wesley

6 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 3 REB | 9 AST | 2-4 2PT | 1-2 FT | 28 MIN

📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 24 2023📈

A belated Happy Thanksgiving to all.

With no NBA games on Thursday, here’s a breakdown of the top prospects’ performances from the huge 14-game slate on Wednesday. PLUS, all the notable lines from Wednesday’s G League games.

WAS 114 @ CHA 117

🔸Mark Williams with 11 PTS, 15 REB and 3 BLK in 35 minutes - we knew that he’d have big rebound and block numbers but the minutes have been huge in the last four games (32.5 mpg). He’ll be a top 50 producer with this kind of role.

🔸Brandon Miller went 3-6 behind the arc and now sits at a modest 33.9 3PT% on 46th percentile volume. His midrange game has been outstanding (82nd percentile efficiency on big volume) but we need to see more outside shooting nights like this one as his rookie season progresses.

🔸A quiet 19 minutes for Bilal Coulibaly who also injured his ankle at the end of the game - don’t expect big starter’s minutes until the Wizards going into full tank mode in the second half.

DEN 119 @ ORL 124

🔸All of the underlying numbers suggested a Franz Wagner breakout performance was coming and here we are - a season-high 27 points driven by 10-14 shooting inside of the arc and 4-4 from the free throw line. The Magic are looking like a playoff team and Franz’s defensive performance (96th percentile Defensive EPM) has been a huge driving factor.

🔸Paolo Banchero hit 4 of 5 three pointers and has 7 blocks in his last four games. The outside shooting has been a huge development - 45.5% from three, largely driven by more selective shooting.

🔸Christian Braun continues to trend up in Jamal Murray’s absence (13 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 21 MIN). His shooting has been the big development - 8 for 10 from three across the last four games and shooting 42.9% on the season.

MIL 116 @ BOS 119

🔸MarJon Beauchamp (22 minutes, 5 points) hasn’t taken the step forward that we wanted to see this season but I continue to be intrigued by Andre Jackson Jr. (8 minutes, 7 PTS, 1-1 3PT). He’s 4-8 from three this season and would be the Bucks best perimeter defender if inserted into the lineup. Stash him in 250+ rostered leagues.

🔸The Celtics are light on prospects on their NBA roster, but make sure you check out the line from JD Davison in the G League last night (listed below). Younger than many rookies at 21 years old, he’s an explosive athlete with a strong fantasy stat set.

MIA 129 @ CLE 96

🔸Jaime Jaquez Jr. with the best game of his young career - 22 PTS | 4-4 3PT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 4-5 FT in 28 minutes. Jaime would have been a lottery pick if he demonstrated this kind of shooting at UCLA. He’s shooting 41.3% from outside on average volume and looking like a long-term starter for the Heat.

🔸 Craig Porter Jr. started and showed out again - 16 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 5 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK. It would be criminal for him to be outside the rotation once the Cavs are healthy and they need to get him on a full roster contract.

🔸 Orlando Robinson lost the backup C job to Thomas Bryant in the preseason but has outplayed him since. This is the kind of stat-stuffing line we’ve come to expect from Robinson - 14 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 9 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK in 28 minutes. He should be rostered in 225+ player leagues.

TOR 132 @ IND 131

🔸 Scottie Barnes with a casual double-double and four steals. The 3PT volume and efficiency have jumped way up (38.2 3PT% on nearly double last year’s volume) and he’s become an elite help defender (100th percentile [!!!] Defensive EPM). A lock for All-Star.

🔸 Gradey Dick and Isaiah Jackson were DNP-CDs and all of the Pacers’ youngsters were down in the G League (check out that big line for Jarace Walker).

BKN 145 @ ATL 147

🔸 The Nets have been feeding Day’Ron Sharpe consistent rotation minutes since Claxton returned and he’s delivered. 6 PTS | 7 REB | 2 STL | 1 BLK in only 14 minutes. Sharpe is arguably the best per-minute rebounder in the league.

🔸 A “slow” night for Jalen Johnson - but his 40(!!) minutes show how secure his starting role is and he stacked 3 STL+BLK again. The defensive metrics back up the eye test - Jalen is one of the best young defenders in the league.

MEM 91 @ HOU 111

🔸 After struggling through the worst efficiency in the league inside the arc all season, Jalen Green exploded in this one - going 6-8 at the rim and 4-5 from midrange. More flashes of this version of Jalen are what we need to see to keep hope alive for his highest-end outcomes as a prospect.

🔸 Jabari Smith Jr.’s usage is still below 20% but I love the efficiency gains we are seeing - 72.2% at the rim (59.3% last season), 47.4% from midrange (40.8% last season), and 36.5% from three (30.7% last season). The box scores stats aren’t eye-popping but he’s on track as a 20 year-old prospect.

🔸A low-scoring night from Alperen Şengün (11 PTS) but he’s now hit a three in four consecutive games and his 3 blocks were a season-high. If the shot blocking returns even to last year’s levels, Şengün could be a top 20 producer this season.

🔸 A quiet night in a blowout for Santi Aldama - 8 PTS in 22 minutes. I’d write this one off - the shot volume was way lower than his prior seven games and should bounce back.

PHI 99 @ MIN 112

🔸Finally - the Paul Reed game we’ve been waiting for. We had to endure Marcus Morris starting, but 26 minutes of Reed meant we got 2 steals, 4 blocks, and a near double-double. He’ll likely go back to being just a straight backup to Embiid but this per-minute mastery is why you hold on to him for the future.

🔸 No Josh Minott or Leonard Miller in the rotation with Jaden McDaniels out. The Wolves can’t afford to bring Kyle Anderson back this offseason, so their time is coming.

SAC 112 @ NOR 117

🔸 Dyson Daniels started again and played 29 minutes but McCollum’s impending return will relegate him to a smaller rotation role. The underlying numbers are showing growth - an improved 89th percentile steal rate and a huge leap in his midrange efficiency (98th percentile - 58.8%). I still think he becomes a long-term starter in his prime.

🔸 Jordan Hawkins went 2-8 from three in 21 minutes which should be around his usual role even when CJ returns. His 94th percentile 3PT volume is a fantastic indicator for his career trajectory - he looks like he’ll live up to all of the hype as a shooting prospect.

LAC 109 @ SAS 102

🔸After having only one shot at the rim in the Spurs’ last game, Victor Wembanyama went 5-7 at the rim against the Clippers and protected the rim at the defensive end with three blocks. The best is yet to come with Victor and games like that this (22 PTS, 15 REB) flash that superstar upside.

🔸It’s been a rough stretch for Jeremy Sochan - adapting to playing point guard is the hardest growth curve in the league - but this is a preview of the future. 19 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST and 5-6 from the free throw line. There will be growing pains but Sochan is worth the wait.

CHI 102 @ OKC 116

🔸I say this in every report - but how right were we on Chet Holmgren? 18 PTS, 13 REB, 1 STL and 4 BLK and he’s getting to the free throw line at a superstar rate and converting (8-11 in this game, 88.9 FT% on the season). It’s getting harder and harder to view Chet as anything less than a top 10 dynasty asset.

🔸It’s been a rough start for Josh Giddey on the court but here’s why my long-term projection on him isn’t really changing. He’s suffering from a smaller on-ball role (64.9 touches per game compared with 76.7 last season), passing fewer times per-game, and suffering from a cold streak at the rim. The rest of the underlying numbers look the same as last season and he just turned 21 years old - his ceiling as a fantasy player has not changed. I’m holding and waiting to see how this plays out.

🔸 Chicago leaned back into the Patrick Williams experience with a team-leading 37 minutes, and the returns were underwhelming. 10 PTS, 7 REB, and no defensive stats. I’m not giving up entirely but the ceiling is much lower than we hoped for.

🔸Cason Wallace continues to play veteran-level defense with the smallest offensive role possible (10.4% usage, 5th percentile). I think the role expands exponentially in his prime - OKC is just maximizing what young prospects do best.

UTA 105 @ POR 121

🔸Welcome back, Scoot! Seven assists in only 17 minutes. Have patience as he navigates the rough life on an NBA point guard. Like so many before him, the second half of the season will be much more forgiving and Year 2 will be a breakout.

🔸 Keyonte George’s best scoring game as a starter - 16 PTS, 3-6 3PT, 7 AST, and 7-7 from the free throw line. His defense is atrocious but that’s expected for a rookie guard being forced into big minutes on a poor defensive roster.

🔸What a performance from Jabari Walker - 19 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 10 REB | 2 STL. His plus-rebounding allows him to play small ball center and he’s destined to put up some huge lines during the Blazers’ inevitable tanking stretch in the second half.

GSW 115 @ PHO 123

🔸I loved Brandin Podziemski in the pre-draft process but didn’t think he could crack the Warriors’ rotation as a rookie - I was wrong. Three steals in 23 minutes and quickly becoming a favorite of Steve Kerr - this kid is going to be a starting point guard across his prime.

🔸Maybe I’m also wrong on Jonathan Kuminga. Huge opportunity with Draymond out and CP3 ejected and flatlined in 21 minutes. He’s still young but this isn’t the Year 3 we hoped for after an amazing preseason.

DAL 104 @ LAL 101

🔸Dereck Lively II hurt his back late in this one after a rough fall on an attempted alley-oop. Hopefully he’s ok. Before his exit, it was a quiet game but notable that zero fouls in 19 minutes of action. Once he figures out how to avoid fouling, his numbers are going to be a lot more consistent.

🔸Jaden Hardy is stuck in a minor bench role (7 MIN, 2 PTS) as Kidd continues to work Dante Exum (9 MIN) into the rotation as well. Eventually, the Mavericks have to realize that Hardy’s development is necessary to developing a consistent winning team around Luka, but apparently they haven’t gotten there yet.

🔸Austin Reaves (17 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 6-9 2PT | 31 MIN) has emerged from a slow start and is picking up where he left off in the second half and playoffs last season. He’s more than doubled his steal rate this year and nearly doubled his rebound rate - if those hold, he’ll be significantly better than we projected.

⚡G League Lightning Round⚡

Jarace Walker

30 PTS | 0-7 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 12-16 2PT | 3-5 FT | 35 MIN

Cam Whitmore

25 PTS | 5-11 3PT | 8 REB | 5 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-5 2PT | 2-2 FT | 33 MIN

Jett Howard

34 PTS | 7-16 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 4-6 2PT | 3-4 FT | 34 MIN

Noah Clowney

10 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 14 REB | 4 AST | 3-4 2PT | 3-3 FT | 37 MIN

Nikola Jovic

7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 4 AST | 1-6 2PT | 1-2 FT | 26 MIN

Dalen Terry

15 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 4 REB | 6 AST | 2 STL | 6-10 2PT | 0-1 FT | 31 MIN

Ben Sheppard

12 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 3-7 2PT | 19 MIN

Dariq Whitehead

10 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 3-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 23 MIN

Julian Phillips

29 PTS | 5-9 3PT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 1 BLK | 4-8 2PT | 3-4 FT | 28 MIN

Oscar Tshiebwe

20 PTS | 28 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 8-13 2PT | 2-4 FT | 34 MIN

Adama Sanogo

26 PTS | 14 REB | 1 BLK | 10-16 2PT | 3-3 FT | 29 MIN

JD Davison

38 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 4 REB | 8 AST | 1 STL | 13-19 2PT | 6-9 FT | 38 MIN

Amari Bailey

12 PTS | 6 REB | 5 AST | 3 STL | 4-11 2PT | 2-2 FT | 28 MIN

Jalen Wilson

20 PTS | 4-8 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1-5 2PT | 4-4 FT | 30 MIN

Terquavion Smith

23 PTS | 6-13 3PT | 6 REB | 1 STL | 1-2 2PT | 1-1 FT | 29 MIN

Jordan Walsh

5 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1-5 2PT | 0-1 FT | 28 MIN

Ricky Council IV

31 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 13-17 2PT | 3-4 FT | 38 MIN

📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 22 2023📈

5 games on Tuesday.

In-depth analysis on 22 top NBA prospects.

Plus, the top G League stat lines.

TOR 107 @ ORL 126

Paolo Banchero

25 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 8-17 2PT | 3-3 FT | 32 MIN

🔸Paolo’s on-ball role and usage have skyrocketed back up to the same levels as his rookie season in November and the Magic are riding a 5-1 record over the last 10 days on his back. The shot diet needs to improve - Paolo is shooting an awful 36.8% from midrange on huge volume - but he’s up to 41% from three.

Scottie Barnes

14 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 8 REB | 4 AST | 3 STL | 4-7 2PT | 3-4 FT | 30 MIN

🔸Barnes has contested fewer shots in the last two weeks and has registered only one block in that span - this is the inconsistency of pre-prime prospects and I think we will see the blocks return in the future. The rest of the breakout continues.

Franz Wagner

17 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 3 STL | 7-14 2PT | 0-1 FT | 31 MIN

🔸We’re starting to see Franz climb out of cold shooting streak - going 7-12 at the rim in this one and attacking the rim more rather than settling for midrange jumpers. Add in seven steals over his last three games and you can see the outlines of the fantasy breakout we’ve been waiting for.

Jalen Suggs

18 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 4-6 2PT | 4-4 FT | 21 MIN

🔸Suggs is on an All-Defense campaign so far - third in the NBA in steals, 9th in deflections and third in loose balls recovered. And the offensive efficiency is becoming respectable - 56% true shooting, 60.9% at the rim and 35.1% from three. He’s even shooting 84.1% at the line across increased volume. Suggs may never be the on-ball creator we hoped he could be coming out of Gonzaga but he’s evolving into a very, very good NBA player who will start for a decade.

Anthony Black

10 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 2-2 2PT | 23 MIN

🔸Love seeing Black getting up five 3PT - a career high. He’s trying to blend in on offense with a limited off-ball role and I hope we get to see more on-ball opportunities as the season rolls on.

Gradey Dick

3 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 0-1 2PT | 12 MIN

🔸Dick continues to struggle from outside the arc - shooting only 24.4% from three. Expect that to change in the coming weeks as he adjusts to the NBA game. Maybe some time with the 905 in the G League is in order to get him more reps.

CLE 122 @ PHI 119

Evan Mobley

18 PTS | 12 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 6-10 2PT | 6-6 FT | 38 MIN

🔸It’s early but Mobley has pushed up to 75% from the free throw line - neutralizing one of his few stat set weaknesses. Improved touch at the line could be a pre-cursor to expansion of his game outside the arc - but so far he’s attempted only seven 3PT all season.

Craig Porter Jr.

12 PTS | 3 REB | 9 AST | 1 BLK | 5-9 2PT | 2-2 FT | 27 MIN

🔸Yes, Mitchell, LeVert and Okoro were all out again, but CPJ is staking a claim on a rotation spot and needs to be rostered in 300+ player leagues. The per-minute fantasy production is going to make him relevant even in a 15-18 minute role off the bench.

Jaden Springer

0 PTS | 1 REB | 0-1 2PT | 7 MIN

🔸And just like that, we’re back to PatBev getting minutes over Springer. It’s going to be frustrating but I’m still stashing Springer everywhere I can because I think he’s a long-term rotation player with starter upside in his prime.

IND 157 @ ATL 152

Jalen Johnson

17 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 7 REB | 6 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 6-10 2PT | 5-5 FT | 33 MIN

🔸Johnson’s connective passing and playmaking are why he’s so intriguing as a fantasy prospect. And if he hits free throws like this? The ceiling is absurdly high. Jalen has pushed into the top 50 as a dynasty asset and that may be underselling what his peak could be.

Onyeka Okongwu

7 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 6 REB | 4 AST | 1 BLK | 3-5 2PT | 1-1 FT | 22 MIN

🔸Both Okongwu and Capela got in foul trouble in this shootout, limiting their minutes and forcing the Hawks to play small. The volume is limited but Okongwu’s improvement as a shooter is impressive - 93.5% from the free throw line and has already attempted nearly as many threes this year as he did in all of the 22-23 season.

Aaron Nesmith

17 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 5-6 2PT | 4-5 FT | 25 MIN

🔸Nesmith’s first start of the season but played less than Toppin. The important development here is that Aaron is scoring inside the arc by attacking closeouts and pressuring the rim on drives, not just hitting threes. I think he can be a multi-year starter at his peak.

Bennedict Mathurin

19 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 5-6 2PT | 3-4 FT | 20 MIN

🔸Mathurin came off the bench and saw his minutes reduced. The Pacers’ defensive woes aren’t all Mathurin’s fault, but his 6th percentile Defensive EPM reflects why he’s seeing his role decline. On the positive side, his assist rate has nearly double this season, so there’s hope his tunnel vision issues are improving.

Isaiah Jackson

2 PTS | 5 REB | 1 AST | 4 BLK | 1-1 2PT | 12 MIN

🔸Played over Jalen Smith in the second half. We’ll need to watch to see if Jackson can overtake Smith for the backup center minutes in the coming weeks because these are the kinds of block numbers we’ve been stashing Jackson for.

POR 107 @ PHO 120

Shaedon Sharpe

10 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 3 REB | 1 STL | 3-8 2PT | 4-4 FT | 32 MIN

🔸It’s a good thing Scoot is returning soon because Shaedon Sharpe is running on fumes right now after an extended run of 40+ minute games. There was some concern after his rookie year that he’d be a FT% liability (71.4% in 22-23) but he’s now at 83.1% on the season from the line.

Toumani Camara

7 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 4 REB | 1 STL | 2-2 2PT | 3-4 FT | 39 MIN

🔸Career-high 39 minutes for Camara. The shooting has been rough - 46% true shooting and 22.2% from three - but Toumani had solid efficiency at Dayton and should find his footing as the season rolls on. His defense and size should keep him on the court for this very bad Blazers team.

Jabari Walker

8 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 3 REB | 3-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 14 MIN

🔸Walker has won minutes over Kris Murray and gives Portland rebounding that it desperately needs (85th percentile defensive rebounding, 76th percentile offensive rebounding). Add in really strong block and steal rates and you have an intriguing stash candidate in deeper formats.

UTA 99 @ LAL 131

Austin Reaves

19 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 5 REB | 5 AST | 3 STL | 6-9 2PT | 4-4 FT | 26 MIN

🔸After an ugly first week of the season, Reaves is #53 in 8-cat per game rankings in November. The assist rate from the second half of last season has carried over (23.4%, 82nd percentile) and his three-level efficiency is very real. A premium dynasty asset who is only going to get better.

Keyonte George

9 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2-6 2PT | 2-2 FT | 21 MIN

🔸An ugly game for the Jazz and we should expect this kind of inconsistency from George as he navigates learning the point guard position in the NBA. Assist rate remains elite (94th percentile) and the shots will start falling soon.

Ochai Agbaji

0 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 3 REB | 0-2 2PT | 17 MIN

🔸Started again but barely registered in the stat sheet. This was the concern with Agbaji as a prospect coming out of Kansas - the stat set is empty unless he’s hitting threes and stacking blocks like he did over the last two weeks.

Max Christie Jr.

7 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 5 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 2-3 2PT | 25 MIN

🔸Extra minutes in garbage time but nice to see Christie Jr. stuff the stat sheet. Reddish left this game with groin soreness so we may see more of Max in the next week.

Omer Yurtseven

18 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 8-10 2PT | 2-3 FT | 17 MIN

🔸This was Yurt’s first extended action of the season because of the blowout and he flashed the per-minute production that we loved during his run in Miami in the 21-22 season. Don’t expect more of this - especially once Kessler returns - but he’s a nice stash in leagues rostering 350+ players in case he ever secures a backup C role.

⚡G League Lightning Round⚡

Taylor Hendricks

22 PTS | 4-10 3PT | 7 REB | 1 STL | 3 BLK | 4-8 2PT | 2-2 FT | 32 MIN

Brice Sensabaugh

28 PTS | 5-12 3PT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 2 STL | 6-9 2PT | 1-1 FT | 34 MIN

Nikola Jovic

17 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 5 REB | 7 AST | 1 BLK | 4-10 2PT | 0-1 FT | 37 MIN

Maxwell Lewis

21 PTS | 4-6 3PT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 2-4 2PT | 3-3 FT | 34 MIN

Usman Garuba

15 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 10 REB | 2 AST | 3 STL | 3 BLK | 7-9 2PT | 1-1 FT | 26 MIN

Colin Castleton

25 PTS | 11 REB | 3 AST | 3 BLK | 9-12 2PT | 4-6 FT | 33 MIN

TyTy Washington Jr.

11 PTS | 3-5 3PT | 2 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 0-5 2PT | 1-2 FT | 30 MIN

📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 21 2023📈

8 games on Monday.

In-depth analysis on 35 top NBA prospects.

PLUS: the most interesting stat lines from last night’s G League games.

DEN 107 @ DET 103

Cade Cunningham

27 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 2 REB | 9 AST | 3 STL | 1 BLK | 5-13 2PT | 11-11 FT | 38 MIN

🔸The defensive playmaking AND getting to the line for 11 free throws? This is the Cade we need. His rebound rate has been cut in half because of Ausar Thompson but this is the stat set we project for Cade’s prime. Every attempt in the paint is still heavily contested but if he can draw fouls like this, it changes everything.

Jaden Ivey

17 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 6-7 2PT | 2-2 FT | 30 MIN

🔸Season-high 30 minutes even with Killian Hayes (14 MIN) and Alec Burks (17 MIN) active. Ivey attacked the rim relentlessly and assisted Cade twice - including an easy catch-and-shoot three on a drive kickout. This is what the Pistons’ offense needs and both Cade and Jaden will benefit from being paired in more minutes.

Ausar Thompson

8 PTS | 7 REB | 2 BLK | 4-10 2PT | 24 MIN

🔸Limited minutes due to foul trouble. Ausar is #6 in total blocks in the entire league - behind only Anthony Davis, Brook Lopez, Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren and Rudy Gobert. He’s 6’ 7”.

Christian Braun

15 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-8 2PT | 3-4 FT | 32 MIN

🔸I’ve been skeptical on Bruan as a fantasy producer, but it’s been nice to see his game scale up with more opportunity in the last three games. He’s 6-8 from three during that span and has improved significantly as a defender so far this season.

Peyton Watson

4 PTS | 1 REB | 2 AST | 2 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 13 MIN

🔸Watson’s role has been capped at 11-13 minutes a night but he continues to carry an elite 94th percentile block rate. He remains one of the best stashes in the league and I think he’ll eventually be a big minute starter across his prime.

Marcus Sasser

2 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 1-1 2PT | 5 MIN

🔸Sasser was on the outside of the rotation behind Ivey, Hayes, and Burks but I wouldn’t panic. I think he’s shown more than enough to be part of the Pistons’ long-term plan and is a better fit for the rotation than Hayes.

BOS 118 @ CHA 121

Mark Williams

18 PTS | 16 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 3 BLK | 8-14 2PT | 2-2 FT | 33 MIN

🔸Eight offensive rebounds for Williams in this game - and he’s 3rd in the league in that category this season. Williams is such a valuable fantasy asset because of his plus steal rate (61st percentile) and non-damaging FT% (70.8%) along with the elite big man stats. The early season minutes restriction is gone and WIlliams has eclipsed 30 minutes per game in his last three.

Brandon Miller

9 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-8 2PT | 40 MIN

🔸Huge minutes but cold shooting. Miller is 12-18 from midrange in his last five games and shooting 50% for the season. Bridges’ arrival in the rotation will likely cap Miller’s offensive role this season but there’s been a lot to love about his rookie campaign so far.

Payton Pritchard

21 PTS | 5-8 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 3-6 2PT | 33 MIN

🔸Pritchard took advantage of Derrick White being out and finally hit some threes after being sub-30% through the first 13 games. He’ll go back to a small rotation role going forward but this is a nice reminder of the fantasy potential he has if a big role ever comes his way.

Sam Hauser

3 PTS | 1-9 3PT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 37 MIN

🔸Finally cooled down from three and put up an extremely Tony Snell stat line in 37 minutes. Hauser is going to be a rotation player for many years to come because of his shooting and surprisingly competent on-ball defense, but his fantasy value is 3PT only.

MIL 142 @ WAS 129

Bilal Coulibaly

12 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 3-5 2PT | 25 MIN

🔸The outlines of Coulibaly’s game are starting to form - a strong 69.7% at the rim and already shooting 46.2% from three - plus solid steal and block rates (67th and 73rd percentile, respectively). If Bilal is THIS competent as a 19 year-old role player, I’m even more confident that he will make the leap to being a star wing in his prime.

Deni Avdija

7 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 3-4 2PT | 1-2 FT | 31 MIN

🔸A slow game for Deni but his minutes have been 30+ in five of his last six games and he’s a solid 66.1% at the rim and 41% from three (albeit on average volume). His defense should keep him in a strong role - we just need to see the usage creep into the 20s (current at 18%).

Johnny Davis

0 PTS | 1 REB | 1 AST | 6 MIN

Davis is on the fringe of the Wizards’ rotation, even with Delon Wright out, and - while I generally don’t like to write prospects off until after Year 3 - the ceiling on Davis is looking like a rotation guard at best. This Wizards’ front office has no investment in Davis and they don’t appear to have any desire to force him into minutes.

AJ Green

2 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1-1 2PT | 15 MIN

🔸Green has worked into Milwaukee’s rotation in the last two games with Beauchamp out. He’s a three point specialist who hit 4.4 threes per game on 10.3 attempts (42.6%) across 15 G League appearances last season. I don’t think there’s anything to see here for dynasty leagues.

NYK 100 @ MIN 117

Immanuel Quickley

15 PTS | 1-7 3PT | 1 REB | 3-7 2PT | 6-6 FT | 17 MIN

🔸 Low minutes in his last two games but the underlying metrics all scream breakout potential. Quickley’s midrange game is looking elite - 54.5% on 86th percentile volume - and he’s getting to the line at an 82nd percentile clip with an 89.4 FT%. Add in a strong assist rate and you have the foundation of a future starting PG. We should all be looking to acquire IQ before he gets that starting opportunity.

Quentin Grimes

0 PTS | 0-6 3PT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 25 MIN

🔸 The good news? Grimes is shooting 40.3% from three on 85th percentile volume and jumped up to a competent 60th percentile steal rate. The bad news? He’s down to 24.7 minutes a night and 12.2% usage. This just isn’t enough of a role to support his meager fantasy game.

Josh Minott

2 PTS | 2 REB | 1-1 2PT | 1 MIN

🔸Minott has played only 20 minutes all season but maybe we see more of him if Jaden McDaniels misses some time and Kyle Anderson is playing big minutes. He can be an elite STL and BLK producer even in limited minutes.

LAC 124 @ SAS 99

Victor Wembanyama

9 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 2 BLK | 4-8 2PT | 1-1 FT | 27 MIN

🔸Wembanyama only having one attempt at the rim is an indictment on how stagnant the Spurs’ offense is without competent playmaking on the floor. I have zero concern about Wemby hitting his superstar upside - and there are some great indicators across his first 14 games (70.6% at the rim, 94th percentile defensive rebounding, 98th percentile block rate). Once the Spurs put some passing around Victor, it’s going to be over for the league.

Jeremy Sochan

8 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 3-9 2PT | 2-2 FT | 29 MIN

🔸No, the Point Sochan experiment is not going to make Jeremy into a long-term starting point guard - but it’s probably the best thing for his long-term development as a connector and frontcourt hub next to Wembanyama. He’s 10-27 from three (37%) and above 60% at the rim - which are solid developments in Year 2 - I just really want to see some improvement in the defensive stat rates and that hasn’t happened yet.

Charles Bassey

2 PTS | 12 REB | 3 AST | 4 BLK | 1-3 2PT | 18 MIN

🔸Some extra work in garbage time here but it’s nice to Bassey’s per-minute fantasy game popping again. His rebounding and block rates are at the top of the league and he has quick hands for a center - showing a knack for generating steals and deflections. Probably just a long-term backup big but you stash him for the per-minute upside.

Julian Champagnie

5 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 4 REB | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 23 MIN

🔸Expanded minutes with Vassell out, Champagnie dominated in his Summer League appearances and his steal and block rates from college appear to be translating to the pro game. His elite 3PT volume (89th percentile this year, 93rd percentile last year) combined with his strong positional size should make him a long-term rotation wing.

Malaki Branham

10 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 1 AST | 2-3 2PT | 21 MIN

🔸Branham is 11 for 19 from midrange in his last four games and his assist rate is up to a solid 16%. I don’t know if Branham is more than a rotation combo guard at his peak but his three-level scoring potential and 6’10” wingspan make me think it’s possible he could become more with time.

Bones Hyland

3 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 0-1 2PT | 4 MIN

🔸Out of the rotation now that Harden has arrived. Bones is only 23 years old and I think he emerges into a strong per-minute rotation guard in the next year or two.

SAC 93 @ NOR 129

Herb Jones

18 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 6-7 2PT | 3-4 FT | 27 MIN

🔸It’s time to re-evaluate the ceiling on Herb Jones. He’s blocking shots at an elite level with a 91st percentile block rate - and has increased his contested shots per game from 6.2 to 7.5 this season (comparable to Victor Wembanyama and Bam Adebayo). He’s shooting 75% at the rim and hitting a steady diet of corner threes. We’re also seeing nice progress in the rebound and assist rates. Herb is looking like a lot more than a steals specialist.

Keegan Murray

5 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 0-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 16 MIN

🔸Left early with a back injury - hopefully it’s nothing serious. He’s been frustrating but the underlying metrics are showing that a leap is coming once the threes start falling again. Creating more shots for himself, playing elite defense, improved REB and AST rates, and a more diverse shot profile.

Dyson Daniels

3 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 2 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 25 MIN

🔸Dyson’s AST and STL rates have scaled up to a larger role so far this year and he’s hitting 56.3% from midrange (18-32). Like Jalen Suggs, I think the defense keeps him in a regular role and if he can continue to grow as a shooter, he should be a long-term starter.

Jordan Hawkins

9 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 1-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 29 MIN

🔸Hawkins likely retreats to the back of the rotation once McCollum and Murphy III return from injury but this extended run has been eye opening. Jordan is hitting 36.2% from three on 93rd percentile volume and he’s creating more shots off the dribble than I expected. Despite solid effort, he’s just too thin to help on defense (1st percentile Defensive EPM) but I think we’ve seen enough to view him as a likely starter in his prime.

MIA 118 @ CHI 100

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

19 PTS | 3-4 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 5-9 2PT | 33 MIN

🔸Jaquez Jr. was a low-volume 3PT shooter at UCLA, but is up to 4.5 attempts per 75 possessions this season and hitting them at a 35.7% clip. His strong rim finishing is translating to the pros (65.4%) and he’s already a defensive disruptor (82nd percentile steal rate and 2.9 deflections per 36 minutes). Add in solid defense and a big wing frame and there’s good reason to think that Jaime is going to be at least a big minute rotation player and even a starter across his prime.

Patrick Williams

9 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 3 REB | 2 BLK | 3-4 2PT | 17 MIN

🔸Williams is averaging 15 minutes per game in his last three games. But there’s still some flashes here - Williams had three really impressive drives where he scored on contested layups against Miami and his block rate is up the 88th percentile along with a career-high 84th percentile steal rate. Last year’s strong 3PT shooting has evaporated (26.2%) but, at only 22 years old, I’m just not ready to give up on Williams as a prospect - we’ve seen Chicago fail to develop lottery prospects over and over in the last decade and Williams may just need a new team.

HOU 116 @ GSW 121

Alperen Şengün

30 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 13 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 11-20 2PT | 2-5 FT | 37 MIN

🔸Şengün is surpassing even the wildest projections of where we thought he could be in Year 3.  He’s up to 32 minutes per game - both because he’s the primary driver of Houston’s halfcourt offense but also because his commitment on defense has warranted big minutes (80th percentile Defensive EPM). He’s just started scratching the surface of his 3PT shooting (5-8 in his last three games) and he dominated the offensive boards against the Warriors (7 OREB). It’s all happening.

Jabari Smith Jr.

17 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 9 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 6-7 2PT | 2-2 FT | 32 MIN

🔸Jabari was cooking from midrange in this one (4-5) - getting to his spots and hitting contested jumpers like he did at Auburn. He’s still not creating many shots for himself and he’s getting to the line even less than last season (16th percentile FTA volume). But his improvement at the rim (75.8%, 90th percentile) and on defense makes me confident that he’ll be a long-term starter, even if the star potential seems less likely.

Jalen Green

16 PTS | 2-9 3PT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 4-6 2PT | 2-2 FT | 23 MIN

🔸Expect some ugly outings in the coming weeks for Green - it feels like Udoka is going to try to reshape him and keep him accountable in his minutes. The efficiency remains brutal - Green is the least efficient player inside the arc on high volume in the NBA this year - but he’s getting to the free throw line at a star-level rate and it’s still possible that it all clicks since we’re talking about a 21 year old. Hold on and hope for the leap later this season.

Brandin Podziemski

3 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 18 MIN

🔸Podziemski has locked down a rotation spot in the last four games and everything we saw at Santa Clara is translating over - strong defensive rebounding (77th percentile) and assist rate (73rd percentile) and shooting 45.5% from three on solid volume. He’s going to at least be a good per-minute producer as a third guard in his prime and has a ceiling as a long-term starting PG who could stack top 75 seasons.

Moses Moody

7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 4 REB | 2-4 2PT | 22 MIN

🔸Moody is showing the progression we needed to see in Year 3 - he’s solidly in the rotation, has increased his steal rate from 22nd percentile to 89th percentile and he continues to shoot efficiently from all three levels. The usage (16.1%) isn’t enough to make him fantasy relevant in the 18 mpg he’s averaging, but I think he will eventually be a starter whether in Golden State or elsewhere.

Jonathan Kuminga

7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 2-4 2PT | 18 MIN

🔸As a Kuminga evangelist, it pains me to see minutes and volume this low in a game without Draymond. Kuminga has career-high usage (27.4%) and continues to dominate at the rim (69.6%) but he cannot hit a three to save his life (6 for 32, 18.8%) and hasn’t been as locked in defensively as he was for stretches of the 22-23 season. It’s been a mixed bag but JK is newly 21 years-old and I still think his high-end outcomes are on the table.

⚡G League Lightning Round⚡

Leonard Miller

10 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 2-3 2PT | 2-2 FT | 26 MIN

GG Jackson

21 PTS | 4-9 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 2-5 2PT | 3-3 FT | 32 MIN

Kobe Brown

17 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 11 REB | 4 AST | 1 BLK | 6-17 2PT | 1-3 FT | 33 MIN

Kris Murray

8 PTS | 2-8 3PT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 4 BLK | 1-6 2PT | 33 MIN

Kenneth Lofton Jr.

23 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 9 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 4 BLK | 6-10 2PT | 5-6 FT | 36 MIN

Rayan Rupert

13 PTS | 3-5 3PT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 1-2 2PT | 1-1 FT | 34 MIN

Wendell Moore Jr.

19 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 3 REB | 3 AST | 3 STL | 5-9 2PT | 2-2 FT | 38 MIN

📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 20 2023📈

9 games on Sunday.

Let’s dig in deep on 46 of the NBA’s top prospects.

PHI 121 @ BKN 99

Jaden Springer

10 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 1-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 21 MIN

🔸After falling out of the rotation at the start of the month, Springer has come roaring back with three straight games with 20+ minutes. 87th percentile in Defensive EPM and becoming a more willing 3PT shooter (3.3 attempts per 75 poss. - up from 1.9 last season) - the floor here is a long-term 3-and-D rotation guard - but the upside to become a starter remains if the offensive gains continue.

Day’Ron Sharpe

6 PTS | 8 REB | 2 AST | 2 BLK | 3-3 2PT | 20 MIN

🔸A few extra minutes in a blowout, but Sharpe’s role has risen dramatically with Claxton’s return - averaging nearly 20 minutes per game over the last four. Sharpe is in the 99th and 98th percentile, respectively, in offensive and defensive rebounding and is maintaining his strong block rate in expanded minutes. Limited offensively, Day’Ron is still making it count as a P&R roll man - with an elite 1.33 points per possession in limited volume. I remain bullish and think he’s at least a long-term backup center.

Paul Reed

0 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 2 BLK | 0-3 2PT | 14 MIN

🔸Finally - a multi-block game from Paul Reed. It’s been disappointing but I’m here to preach patience. Reed IS attempting to create more off dribble, has improved his passing significantly, and is starting to take some threes. The big leap that Nick Nurse was hyping in training camp likely isn’t happening this year - but the potential remains sky high for the future. Hold and acquire at this low point.

Trendon Watford

8 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 4 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-7 2PT | 22 MIN

🔸Watford delivers interesting fantasy lines whenever called into action and has one of the smoothest floaters you’ll ever see from a 6’8” 240 pound forward. I don’t think he has a defensive position yet and the 3PT volume must improve, but there’s enough here to keep stashing in 300+ rostered formats since he’s newly 23 years old.

Kenyon Martin Jr.

0 PTS | 1 REB | 4 MIN

🔸Out of the rotation and unlikely to ascend without a series of injuries in front of him. At only 22 years old coming off of a dominant season at the rim in HOU (72.2% on big volume), I’m still hopeful that Martin Jr. can reclaim a strong rotation role across his prime. The key will be improving his defensive effort and consistency, which haven’t been there through three seasons.

DET 113 @ TOR 142

Scottie Barnes

17 PTS | 3-4 3PT | 7 REB | 9 AST | 4-7 2PT | 25 MIN

🔸Barnes is contesting fewer shots over the last two weeks and has seen a corresponding drop in his block numbers - but the rise in his shooting (8-13 3PT over his last three games - 39.4% on the season on nearly double last year’s volume) is exactly what he needed to spark his All Star ceiling.

Cade Cunningham

18 PTS | 3-5 3PT | 5 REB | 4 AST | 4-12 2PT | 1-3 FT | 27 MIN

🔸Cade is leading the entire NBA in P&R ball handler possessions (166) in an offense that is so disrespected by opposing defenses that four defenders collapse on him the moment he enters the lane. His shot looks pure but driving to the rim 17+ times per game and attempting to finish over multiple defenders has left his efficiency in the dumpster (6th percentile at the rim, 27th percentile from mid-range). The Pistons need #1) more spacing and #2) to balance the on-ball workload with Jaden Ivey and get Cade more off-ball looks. With this season already a lost cause, let’s hope they make some changes.

Ausar Thompson

9 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 10 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-4 2PT | 3-4 FT | 30 MIN

🔸Ausar has double-digit rebounds in five of his last six games and his block rate (4.4%, 89th percentile) continues to hold. He hasn’t hit a three in two weeks and is only averaging one attempt in that span, but we’ll take the offensive growing pains when we’re getting this much across other categories. Ausar’s 93rd percentile Defensive EPM is truly astounding - rookie wings should not be this good on defense.

Jaden Ivey

9 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 3-5 2PT | 3-4 FT | 28 MIN

🔸Ivey started with Killian Hayes inactive - and he had zero turnovers and the Pistons were a team-best +0 with him on the court. These are the small steps that Monty Williams - apparently - needs to see. Ivey averaged 6.8 P&R ballhandler possessions per game last season and is averaging 1.8 this season - despite improved efficiency (.833 points per possession). Hold Ivey and wait for the better days ahead - this team desperately needs Ivey as an additional on-ball creator.

Marcus Sasser

9 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 REB | 6 AST | 1 STL | 3-4 2PT | 21 MIN

🔸Sasser reclaimed some minutes in this one with Killian Hayes out and the Pistons getting blown out. He’ll likely dip back into a smaller role but you should be stashing him everywhere you can - 39.2 3PT% on strong volume, a mid-range maestro shooting 56.4% on 5.0 attempts per 75 poss., and plus-AST and STL rates. Sasser has all the makings of a long-term fantasy contributor.

Gradey Dick

5 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 STL | 0-1 2PT | 2-2 FT | 12 MIN

🔸Slow start to Dick’s rookie campaign - a brutal 23.7% from three on good volume and some ugly defensive metric rankings (7th percentile in Defensive EPM). He’ll be much better than this as the season continues but if the Raptors stay in the play-in mix, I don’t know if his role expands much this year.

James Wiseman

15 PTS | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 6-8 2PT | 3-5 FT | 24 MIN

🔸This was a garbage time special where Wiseman collected most of his stats in 8 minutes of non-competitive basketball. As usual, he fouled at an alarming rate and the defensive feel is likely never coming around. On the positive side, he’s a career-best 78.3% at the rim this season. I’ve given up on Wiseman ever being a starter - but he’ll likely get a few more seasons on the back-end of rosters to see if he can be a backup big.

ORL 128 @ IND 116

Paolo Banchero

24 PTS | 3 REB | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 9-14 2PT | 6-7 FT | 27 MIN

🔸Paolo dominated at the rim (7-8) against the Pacers’ league-worst defense and we’re starting to see steady STL production (71st percentile STL rate compared to 34th percentile as a rookie). The FT shooting remains atrocious (65.6% on huge volume) but the elite rim finishing is the key for this 6’10” 250 pound truck who can drive to the basket at-will.

Franz Wagner

19 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 6-12 2PT | 7-7 FT | 22 MIN

🔸Franz has yielded some touches to Paolo over the last couple weeks but he’s also been more aggressive getting to the basket - with 28 rim attempts in his last three games. Franz has career-highs in usage (25.2%), defensive rebound rate (15.0%) and steal rate (1.7%) and seems primed for some massive stat lines now that his cold shooting streak has snapped.

Jalen Suggs

18 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 5-6 2PT | 5-6 FT | 18 MIN

🔸Suggs took advantage of the layup line presented by the Pacers’ defense - and showed off an improved finishing package with a nice finger roll and reverse layup. Defensively, he’s a monster and the Magic have - understandably - reduced his on-ball role and made him a more efficient, complementary scorer. My concern? 25.1% on wide-open threes (despite almost three wide-open attempts per game) and 29.3% on catch-and-shoot threes this season.

Jarace Walker

7 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-3 2PT | 1-1 FT | 14 MIN

🔸Career-high 14 minutes for Walker because of the blowout - and only his fourth game appearance this season. Encouraging to see Jarace getting threes up like he did in the preseason, even if they didn’t fall, and he had a nice steal for a transition layup that showed his defensive playmaking potential. I remain very optimistic on Jarace’s future and would not be shocked to see him starting early next season. Hold and stay strong.

Anthony Black

7 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 2 BLK | 1-3 2PT | 5-6 FT | 24 MIN

🔸Black went 4-for-7 from three in his first two big minute appearances at the beginning of November - and has gone 1 for 10 ever since. Black’s biggest offensive strength at Arkansas was his ability to slither to the rim with impressive footwork for his size, but he’s averaging a paltry 2.3 drives per game so far this year (and 11.6% usage). I like Black long-term but the questions we had about his offensive game haven’t gone away.

Bennedict Mathurin

14 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 3-9 2PT | 5-5 FT | 25 MIN

🔸Mathurin is making some smarter passes this year - his assist rate is up to a respectable 48th percentile and his potential assists are up to 3.4 per game compared to last year’s 2.8. But he’s going to need to shoot at some point to unlock his potential. 33.1% on wide open threes and 31% on catch-and-shoot threes just isn’t going to cut it.

Cole Anthony

15 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 4-9 2PT | 4-4 FT | 25 MIN

🔸Cole is probably stuck as a third guard in Orlando in the short term, but I love his fantasy game and I think - like Derrick White before him - he’ll eventually get expanded opportunity in his career and produce some top 100 seasons.

Isaiah Jackson

6 PTS | 4 REB | 1 AST | 3 STL | 1 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 4-6 FT | 12 MIN

🔸These were all garbage time minutes but it’s nice to see the production from Jackson since he’s been buried on the bench behind Jalen Smith. The lack of development here is concerning, but maybe we see Jackson emerge on a second team like former Pacer Goga Bitadze is doing for Orlando.

DEN 109 @ CLE 121

Evan Mobley

16 PTS | 10 REB | 5 AST | 2 BLK | 8-11 2PT | 32 MIN

🔸After early struggles, Mobley is trending way up at the rim in the last two weeks (41-50, 82%) and has 13 assists in his last three games - hitting cutters and kicking out of drives with good vision. The 21.1% usage remains disappointing but this is at least the Mobley we saw last season.

Christian Braun

13 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 2 REB | 5-10 2PT | 25 MIN

🔸Braun’s offensive role has expanded significantly with Jamal Murray out - scoring on drives, in transition, and as a cutter. But his steals have evaporated this season (19th percentile steal rate) which will need to change if he’s going to emerge as a viable fantasy option in his prime.

Julian Strawther

7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 1-3 2PT | 2-2 FT | 20 MIN

🔸Strawther is maintaining ELITE 3PT volume across 10 appearances this season - 10.4 3PT attempts per 75 poss. (98th percentile). Unfortunately, there’s been little else to his game beyond shooting and the defense remains an impediment to larger minutes.

Craig Porter Jr.

21 PTS | 4 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 7-10 2PT | 7-7 FT | 25 MIN

🔸No, it’s not a fluke - these are the kind of fantasy lines that Porter Jr. put up at Wichita State - making him one of my favorite undrafted players in the 2023 NBA Draft this summer. This comes with Mitchell, LeVert and Okoro out, but don’t forget about CPJ once he returns to the bench - his time as a rotation staple will come eventually.

Jalen Pickett

8 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 2 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 0-1 2PT | 2-2 FT | 19 MIN

🔸I loved Jalen Pickett’s fantasy stat set in the pre-draft process and thought Denver was the best possible landing spot to make his unconventional game work in the NBA. The minutes were inflated by garbage time but the three assists out of the pick-and-roll and two spot-up threes showed how he can make it as a long-term backup PG.

SAC 129 @ DAL 113

Keegan Murray

17 PTS | 2-7 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 5-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 33 MIN

🔸Keegan disappointed as a scorer with Fox out of the lineup, but he’s emerged as an elite defensive player (97th percentile Defensive EPM) who is suddenly locking down top scorers on the perimeter. Once the shots start falling (28.3 3PT% this season), his improved rebounding and nearly-doubled steal rate are going to lead to big fantasy production.

Dereck Lively II

6 PTS | 9 REB | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 3-6 2PT | 29 MIN

🔸Lively is in the bottom 10 in personal fouls per 36 minutes (5.2) but continues to finish at an elite rate (76.7% at the rim, 94th percentile) and already looks like one of the best offensive rebounders in the league. The Mavs’ defense is a dumpster fire which is dragging down Lively’s defensive metrics (59th percentile Defensive EPM), but this has been an extremely positive rookie campaign so far.

Josh Green

11 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 4 REB | 5 AST | 2 STL | 2-3 2PT | 1-2 FT | 26 MIN

🔸Green is not going to consistently start until he shoots three pointers with volume - and we’re starting to see improvement there (5.1 3PT attempts per 75 poss. compared to 4.1 last season). Green also has 3+ assists in 5 of his last 6 games - and seems to have potential to grow given the creativity of some of his passes.

Jaden Hardy

4 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 STL | 0-2 2PT | 1-2 FT | 10 MIN

🔸Hardy is on the fringe of the rotation right now as the Mavericks try to find a viable defensive structure. I think Hardy eventually wins out over Dante Exum and carves out a more consistent role.

PHO 140 @ UTA 137

Keyonte George

7 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 5 REB | 11 AST | 1 STL | 2-7 2PT | 3-4 FT | 34 MIN

🔸Keyonte looked like a new player in Summer League - noticeably slimmer than at Baylor and more explosive - and it looked like he could be an NBA starter as a score-first guard. But now we are 13 games deep into Utah’s season and George is posting a 30.3% assist rate (93rd percentile) and appears to be a legitimate, long-term starting point guard. The shots aren’t falling right now, which is masking the breakout, but you should be trying to acquire Keyonte before everyone realizes HOW good he’s going to be.

Ochai Agbaji

3 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 34 MIN

🔸Ochai has been getting 25+ minutes a night across the Jazz’s last five games and he’s produced 8 blocks and 7 threes across that span. If this newfound block rate (86th percentile) can hold, he becomes a much more interesting fantasy player. Second to only THT in Defensive EPM on the Jazz, so his position in the rotation looks like it could hold.

BOS 102 @ MEM 100

Santi Aldama

28 PTS | 6-15 3PT | 12 REB | 6 AST | 2 STL | 5-12 2PT | 39 MIN

🔸Career-highs for Santi in points, minutes, shots, threes, and assists all in the same game. The Grizzlies have desperately needed someone to step up and I think they’ve found him. I don’t know if the huge leaps in rebounding and assist rates can hold but the fact that Aldama has doubled his drives per game this season (and scoring at 70% true shooting on those drives) makes me think there’s something big happening here.

Sam Hauser

15 PTS | 5-7 3PT | 4 REB | 2 STL | 0-1 2PT | 22 MIN

🔸Hauser has attempted only eight shots inside the arc this season - but who needs two-pointers when you are shooting 47.5% from three on 98th percentile volume? He’s a screaming sell-high given the emptiness of the rest of his fantasy game - we can never forget that Duncan Robinson rose to a top 100ish dynasty ADP during his breakout season.

Ziaire Williams

6 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 3-7 2PT | 24 MIN

🔸Williams’ improvement as a rebounder has held through 12 games but he continues to struggle from three at high volume (28.8%). I expect he’ll continue to get opportunities in this rotation but his 11th percentile Offensive EPM across 25 minutes a game speaks to why the Grizzlies have struggled so much to start this season.

David Roddy

0 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 2 REB | 20 MIN

🔸Roddy had a chance to claim a large role in this rotation and it just looks like he isn’t ready - and may never be.

OKC 134 @ POR 91

Chet Holmgren

16 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 6 REB | 2 BLK | 4-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 20 MIN

🔸I tried to temper my expectations for Chet’s rookie season, but he’s already evolved into the fully formed fantasy superstar that I was hyping up before the 2022 NBA Draft. 14 games into the season, Chet is shooting 73% at the rim (86th percentile), 46.0% from three (92nd percentile), and 90.7% from the free throw line. Add in an elite block rate and you have a cornerstone player for the next decade.

Shaedon Sharpe

7 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 2-7 2PT | 24 MIN

🔸Exhibit A of why you don’t play a 20-year old 40+ minutes a night for three weeks - Sharpe has slammed into the wall in the last few games. Don’t worry - the star trajectory is still there - we just need Chauncey Billups to not kill this man in Year 2. Sharpe’s near-double assist rate is holding and his shot creation is a revelation. Try a buy low and see if there’s some unwarranted panic from the Sharpe manager in your league.

Josh Giddey

6 PTS | 4 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 3-6 2PT | 23 MIN

🔸Giddey is suffering from a deadly combination of high volume and awful efficiency at both the rim and from mid-range - along with a drop in his 3PT volume. Until that shot profile improves - and Giddey develops enough craft to finish at the rim and from floater range effectively - it will be ugly like it’s been. With that said, I am buying during this slump - Giddey is one of the best passers and processors in the league and has been too good in his young career for this to be the new normal.

Cason Wallace

2 PTS | 1 REB | 1 STL | 1-2 2PT | 21 MIN

🔸Wallace started and was a non-factor offensively. He holds a 75% true shooting percentage on the season (99th percentile) on a miniscule 10.6 usage percentage. His offensive role could not be smaller but, similar to Keegan Murray last year, his willingness to play that role is why I think he’ll be a very successful long-term starter in OKC.

Jabari Walker

13 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 5-10 2PT | 0-1 FT | 22 MIN

🔸Get familiar with Jabari Walker, if you haven’t already. 21 years old with an 88th percentile Defensive EPM, strong rebounding rates, and 80+ percentile in both steal and block rates - that’s the recipe for a star role player in the future. With the Blazers headed nowhere this season, Jabari should be grabbed in all leagues rostering 200+ players.

Toumani Camara

6 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 2 REB | 3-3 2PT | 15 MIN

🔸Foul trouble and a blowout led to these low minutes but Camara should be playing minutes in the upper 20s going forward. One of the few bright spots of this Blazers’ season, his defensive impact should make him a rotation staple for years to come.

HOU 104 @ LAL 105

Alperen Şengün

23 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 10 REB | 5 AST | 1 BLK | 10-14 2PT | 31 MIN

🔸Eleven games into the Rockets’ season and it’s become clear that Şengün is the Rockets’ best young player. He’s added a deadly mid-range game (57.1% on 91st percentile volume), is finishing at the rim at a career-best 69.4% and his assist rate is at 30% (93rd percentile). But the big headline is that Ime Udoka’s coaching and a competent defensive structure around him has made Alperen into a solid defensive player (79th percentile Defensive EPM, 84th percentile defensive rating). Multiple All Star appearances ahead.

Jabari Smith Jr.

14 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 3-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 32 MIN

🔸Let’s focus on the positive - Jabari has made a huge second-year leap at the rim, shooting 74.2% on increased volume. That’s a BIG indicator of long-term success in NBA players. He’s also shooting 35.2% from three on increased volume compared to 30.7% last season. The rest of the profile is pretty flat compared to his rookie year, but I’m still optimistic on Jabari becoming a very good fantasy player across a long career.

Austin Reaves

17 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 3-4 2PT | 5-6 FT | 25 MIN

🔸After a brutal October, Reaves is coming on strong - pushing up to an 81st percentile assist rate and the best steal rate of his career (57th percentile). I haven’t changed my bullish outlook on Reaves - he’s going to be very good for a long time.

Jalen Green

9 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 1-5 2PT | 1-3 FT | 31 MIN

🔸Again, focusing on the positive, Jalen is shooting a career-best 37.5% from three and getting to the line at a 95th percentile clip. The negative? Everything inside the arc is a disaster - 49.2% at the rim and 25% from mid-range. His playmaking has not developed and his steal rate is at a career low. The book isn’t written on Jalen but there’s some concern that he may be more of a complementary shooting guard rather than a star creator.

Tari Eason

2 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 5 REB | 1 BLK | 1-1 2PT | 17 MIN

🔸Tari is locked into a small rotation role but the elite rebounding is still there and he’s blocking shots at an incredible pace (95th percentile block rate). Only two steals in five game is a bit surprising, so let’s watch to see if Udoka’s defensive scheme is limiting that area of Eason’s game.

📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 10 2023📈

Let’s dig into the two games from Thursday night.

MIL 124 @ IND 126

Bennedict Mathurin

26 PTS | 3-7 3PT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 6-11 2PT | 5-6 FT | 36 MIN

🔸After looking timid from the perimeter, Mathurin has launched 14 threes in his last two games (7-14, 50%) and showed nice shot versatility in this one with some pull-up and stepback jumpers. The relentless rim pressure was also on display again (4-6 at the rim, 5-6 at the free throw line). And Mathurin has 20 REB over his last two games as well. This is what we wanted in Year 2.

Andrew Nembhard

10 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2-3 3PT | 20 MIN

🔸Low assists here but the important takeaway is that TJ McConnell remains on the outside of the rotation and that should mean consistent production for Nembhard, even in a bench role. Both Nembhard’s AST rate (25.8% - 87th percentile) and STL rate (2.1% - 75th percentile) are up from his rookie year and he’s a scintillating 54.3% from mid-range on heavy volume.

Aaron Nesmith

6 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 1 REB | 0-1 2PT | 16 MIN

🔸Minutes limited by foul trouble and Carlisle still didn’t play Obi Toppin big minutes - instead going with two-big lineups with Daniel Theis and Myles Turner. It feels like only a matter of time before Nesmith is starting - he’s still inconsistent but his defensive potential paired with 50% 3PT shooting  on solid volume necessitates substantial minutes.

Isaiah Jackson

3 PTS | 3 REB | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 1-2 FT | 11 MIN

🔸Backup center minutes here because Jalen Smith got scratched late with a sore lower back. The blocks on Beauchamp and Portis were both at the rim and spectacular. Jackson remains a dynasty stash in hope that he can eventually find consistent backup minutes - just don’t expect it any time soon with Jalen Smith looking like the preferred option behind Turner.

MarJon Beauchamp

5 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 1-2 2PT | 13 MIN

🔸After playing 27 minutes against DET on Wednesday, Beauchamp was back to his usual role against the Pacers. The good? He’s shooting 63.6% at the rim, 75% from midrange and 47.4% from three - albeit on low volume. The bad? Only one steal and zero blocks across eight games so far. MarJon has a real opportunity to grab a long-term starting role as a 3-and-D perimeter defender, but he hasn’t grabbed it yet.

Andre Jackson Jr.

0 PTS | 5 MIN

🔸Jackson Jr. is on the outside of this rotation but I’ll use this as an opportunity to remind you that he was the most impressive young player on this roster during the preseason and Beauchamp’s failure to seize a larger role could create an opening for Andre in the second half. Potential to be a strong STL + BLK contributor with solid contributions in REB and AST.

Jarace Walker

DNP-CD

🔸Hard to see Walker inactive even in a game script where the Pacers were without Jalen Smith and Nesmith was in foul trouble. I hope the Pacers will let Walker get some G League run and integrate him into the rotation in the second half. I remain confident in Walker’s long-term fantasy potential - this is the window to acquire him in all leagues.

ATL 120 @ ORL 119

Jalen Suggs

21 PTS | 4-5 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 6 STL | 3-5 2PT | 3-6 FT | 31 MIN

🔸Suggs remains a hustle stat king - 6 steals in this game and #3 in deflections and loose balls recovered in the entire league. But the offensive improvement is the headline - hitting some stepback threes and attacking closeouts with more confidence - Suggs isn’t the pick-in-roll operator we hoped he could be, but if he can shoot like this more consistently, he may end up living up to a lot of his pre-draft hype.

Jalen Johnson

19 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 9 REB | 2 AST | 1 BLK | 5-5 2PT | 3-4 FT | 31 MIN

🔸Is Jalen Johnson TOO high in the dynasty rankings update I just released? Games like this make me think he’s too LOW. A perfect 5-5 in the paint with a combination of dunks, floaters, and strong contested finishes - Johnson is up to 72.9% at the rim (86th percentile) and he isn’t just a play finisher - 38% of his attempts are self-created. Bounced back from an 0-4 3PT performance against OKC and it looks like the shooting improvement is real (28.8% from three last year, 34.8% this year). The breakout is very real.

Paolo Banchero

17 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 8 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 6-11 2PT | 2-4 2PT | 34 MIN

🔸Paolo is averaging 23.5 PTS, 1 3PT, 7.3 REB and 6.3 AST over his last four games. The Magic’s poor spacing is leading to a lot of heavily contested rim attempts but Banchero is still 72.4% at the rim over the last four. Paolo’s playmaking has made a substantial leap this year - jumping from 6.9 potential assists per game to 8.7 and leading the Magic in points created on assists. I think the superstar leap happens in Year 3 but keep monitoring this progress.

Franz Wagner

12 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 7 REB | 3 AST | 5-11 2PT | 2-2 FT | 29 MIN

🔸Two quiet nights in a row could open a buy-low opportunity for Franz - the usage remains at a career-high 25.4% (84th percentile), he’s doubled his rebound rate from last season, and he hasn’t started hitting shots yet. Everything is lining up for a big stretch of games in the near future - take advantage while you can.

Onyeka Okongwu

7 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 3 STL | 4 BLK | 3-3 2PT | 1-2 FT | 21 MIN

🔸This is why we are patient with the neverending minutes split with Clint Capela. Okongwu is a per-minute, fantasy monster who finally got the blocks going in this one. The Hawks considered moving Capela to Dallas in the offseason and trading Clint still makes the most sense for ATL’s long-term cap sheet. Until then, we wait and enjoy this steady production.

Anthony Black

9 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 2-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 17 MIN

🔸Black is averaging 9 PTS, 1.3 3PT, 3.8 REB, 1.5 AST, and 1 STL and 24 minutes across his last four games - the extended opportunity has shown that Black’s 3PT shooting may be ahead of schedule (5-9, 55.6%) but his playmaking might not be there yet (9.9% assist rate and only 3.2 potential assists per game). If the shooting can hold, he could expand his role quicker than expect, so watch that closely.

AJ Griffin

2 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 1-1 2PT | 10 MIN

🔸Griffin is averaging only 9 minutes per game so far but, on the positive side, he continues to get threes up at a respectable 6.7 attempts per 75 possession clip and - at 20 years old - he remains younger than many rookies in the 2023 class. Better seasons are ahead for Griffin but this rotation is very tight right now and I don’t expect more minutes without injuries.

Kobe Bufkin

Inactive - Left Thumb Fracture

🔸Bufkin remains out with a fractured thumb and won’t be in the rotation when he returns. The inevitable Bogdan Bogdanovic injury could open up some minutes later in the season, but Snyder seems intent on running his best eight players as many minutes as possible.

ALL ACCESS - November Dynasty Rankings Update (version 1.0)

It's here! 

I've spent the last week working into the night on a rankings update for all 30 teams. The focus here was updating my career-peak projections based on what we saw across the preseason and the first 2.5 weeks of the regular season.

Please remember there are two tabs. One for categories leagues and one for points.

This is version 1.0 of my November update. I'll be back by the end of the month with a fresh update that will incorporate all of the features that I've had before (ADP, consensus rankings, player notes, updated player photos for all players, and I'll be sure to update all 30 rosters so that all rostered players are ranked).

Feel free to reply with questions or send them on the Discord. 

-Matt

📈The NBA Dynasty Report - November 4 2023📈

Working on my first in-season dynasty rankings update of the year so today’s report will be quick hits on each of last night’s seven games.

CLE 116 @ IND 121

🔸Seven STL+BLK from Evan Mobley, he dominated at the rim (7-9), and he at least attempted two threes. Progress after a slow start and the floor is so high.

🔸Aaron Nesmith has our attention - 13 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 5 REB | 2 STL | 1 BLK in 27 minutes and he played more than Toppin again. How long until Carlisle just starts him?

NYK 105 @ MIL 110

🔸Grimes finally played big minutes (34) and produced - going 5-10 from three. The steals still aren’t there, but these are the minutes he needs to have to be fantasy relevant.

🔸MarJon Beauchamp went 3-5 from three and he’s now shooting 53.8% from deep on big volume (7.7 attempts per 75 possessions). He won’t stay THIS hot but this is a big development for him to become a big minute rotation player or fringe starter.

GSW 141 @ OKC 139

🔸Jonathan Kuminga with 19 PTS going 6-7 at the rim and 3-6 from midrange in only 22 minutes. JK is thriving in pick-and-roll with Chris Paul, as expected, and contributing strong rim pressure in lineups with Steph. The exponential growth in his scoring ability from the preseason continues (27% usage across five games).

🔸Not only were we right about Chet Holmgren - remember the people who told you he would get pushed around in the NBA? - but we all may have been too low on his offense. 24 points and he did it all - pull-up midrangers, trailer threes, self-created rim attempts off drives, post-ups - this was the Chet Show and the effusive praise from Steph, Draymond and Kerr after the game speaks volumes.

🔸Spot start for Cason Wallace and he fit like a glove with the OKC starters. Wallace was an elite finisher for his size at Kentucky and that is translating to the NBA (5-6 at the rim here, including a great finish over Draymond in the 4th).

🔸Don’t look now but Jalen Williams is seeing a huge boost in his assist rate (20.3% - 15.2% last season). The college point guard hasn’t even scratched the surface on his playmaking ability and we could see continued growth there going forward.

WAS 114 @ MIA 121

🔸Bilal Coulibaly is finding a rhythm as a play finisher, in transition, and on catch-and-shoot threes - but had a self-created drive for a tough finish in the 4th that flashed his long-term potential. Hold and watch the growth as the season goes on.

🔸Jaime Jaquez Jr. has earned a solid rotation role (22 minutes) and you saw why on his three assists in this game where he fought for tough rebounds and immediately made a quick pass to an open teammate. May not be a fantasy star but his floor as a long-term premium role player seems set.

BKN 109 @ CHI 107

🔸Cam Thomas started and played big minutes again (31). Yes, he’s still gunning out there (9 3PT attempts, 18 shots in total) but he’s also passing more than ever (36 passes in this game - third on the Nets). The arrow is way up here.

🔸Day’Ron Sharpe with 10 rebounds in 15 minutes. He’s been the best per-minute rebounder in the NBA this season and his block rate and rim finishing are at career-highs. The minutes will come if he keeps producing like this.

🔸Patrick Williams got benched in favor of Torrey Craig - as predicted earlier this week - but he was actually much better in this game. Hit a couple of threes above the break and was driving to the rim again. I’ve lost faith in a fantasy breakout but hopefully he can build on this.

MEM 113 @ POR 115

🔸It’s an all-you-can-eat buffet for Shaedon Sharpe right now. 46 minutes, 22 PTS on 17 shots and a game-saving block at the end of regulation that you MUST see. He’ll be one of the biggest risers in my next update.

🔸Ziaire Williams (13 PTS) was more than just a catch-and-shoot statue in this one - showing off a nice floater, getting to his spots for midrange pull-ups and displaying some smart cutting for easy baskets. And the rebounding (6 REB) continues to trend up. I’m reassessing what the ceiling is here.

🔸Huge minutes (31) for Toumani Camara - he didn’t do much with it other than a couple steals but he’s taken Thybulle’s minutes and should be rostered in more dynasty leagues than he is right now.

DAL 114 @ DEN 125

🔸A quiet night for Dereck Lively II but he played 25 minutes, stayed out of foul trouble, and had a euro step into a reverse layup that showed his massive upside. He’s going to explode soon - acquire him while you still can.

🔸Two more blocks for Peyton Watson in only 13 minutes - had a 93rd percentile block rate in limited action last season and is up to 98th percentile this season - along with a huge leap in rim efficiency (76.9%).