SVE Economics #1: Idolm@ster starter decks.

This is designed to be an irregular series of posts around how to maximise your value when spending on SVE. A lot of these ideas I don't want to be too public, but I'm cool with sharing it with you guys, as I want you to get as much of your money back when subbing to SVE Master.

Oh, also, obviously, this is NOT financial advice, DYOR etc.

One of the things I've been thinking about a lot recently is the release of the Idolm@ster Starter Decks. For context, when you buy one of these starter decks, there is a promo pack of 3 cards, which has a small chance of containing 1 SL or Leader Card.

As per the picture below, you can see that the SL and Leader cards are worth a lot. Although your RRP in the United States is 22USD, the big hits go between 50 USD to 100USD. For context, in Australia, a Starter Deck is around 35-40AUD (25 USD). Surprisingly, this is one of the few products that Australia does not pay a ridiculous premium compared to the U.S.

The most important question any value-chaser has to ask is the following:

"What is the hit rate of a SL or Leader?"

Based on my research, the possible hits are 2 SL 0 Leader or 1 SL 1 Leader per display box (6 starter decks per display box). The Leader is not guaranteed in the case, from what I have heard, it's roughly 1 in every 2-3 display boxes.

In other words, your odds of hitting one of the chase cards is approximately 33%. This is our starting point for any analysis. Of course, let me know if my assumptions are incorrect too ~_~.

Let's use the Cute Starter as an example on if this might be worth gambling on. The two SLs and leader all appear to be going for roughly 100 USD (this seems crazy at first glance, but recall that Cool is the meta aggro deck, which means higher supply in circulation + foil commons drag down the price of the other high value cards.)

This means that if you bought all six starters, you would on average see 200 USD (two hits), ignoring literally everything else about the starters. 200/6 = 33USD. Clearly, if the RRP of a starter deck is 22 USD in the US, but the average value of a starter deck is 33 USD based only on the SL/leader hits... Hey, you know what that means, right?

Actually, this product prints money, at least at current market values.

The advantages of a physical card game store

You have two choices when it comes to buying the product:

1) You purchase from the supplier directly (this means you pay less money per starter deck)

2) You purchase from a store (this means they charge you a higher amount to make a profit - they are a store, after all)

At first glance, 1) seems like the best option - but is it really? In reality, 2) is the better choice, at least in my opinion

Have you guys ever played Blackjack? Or heard of the term, "counting cards?" I think many of you subconsciously consider such concepts, but if your store has a fresh display case of Cute Idolmaster Starter Decks, isn't it a no brainer to purchase it if the price is the RRP of 22 USD? After all, we earlier confirmed the average expected value to be at least 33 USD.

Now, suppose we failed to hit on the first try. Now we know there are only 5 Starter Decks left. There are 2 big hits left, so there is 200 USD of value in the remaining 5 starters. Therefore, each starter is now worth 40 USD (up from 33 USD). Of course, if it was worth it to buy it when the expected value was 33 USD, it's obviously worth it to buy it now that it's 40.

Suppose you miss again.... Now it's 200 USD over 4 starters. The expected value is now 50USD. Naturally, you buy it again. And so forth.

Essentially, as long as the expected value is within the green section, you gain value on average by purchasing the starter deck. The only thing that's necessary is that you walk in with the resolve to buy all six if you get unlucky.

To explain why I think purchasing from a physical card game store is ideal - it's because you can walk away the moment the EV becomes negative. For example, you hit the SL on the first starter deck? Great, now you walk away, and enjoy your $$$. When you buy from a card game store, you have flexibility.

Another common scenario is that perhaps you see someone purchase a starter. They open their promo pack in front of you. If they hit? Cool, now you know the EV in that store is down a lot. If they didn't hit... Well, maybe it's time to go in?

Imagine, on the other hand, you purchase a display for yourself. If you hit a SL on the first starter, it's going to be difficult to sell the rest of the loose starters. You are almost committed to opening the rest, even though you killed the value on the first Starter Deck.

Final thoughts

The analysis presented in this article has taken a number of assumptions.

1) That the cards outside of the SLs/Leaders are worth zero (but in reality, they are definitely worth something)

2) That the cards can be sold at the current TCG Player prices

3) That the average hit rate is 2/display box

Nevertheless, I think this idolmaster starter deck represents some excellent value. Many of the starter deck exclusive cards are actually extremely strong. Although Cute is the best Idolmaster deck, both Passion and Cute are definitely viable during CP02. Hope this helps you guys out.